Normally, being just a week away from the last week of the season, playoff positions are solidified, and we need to take into account that teams may be benching start players.
Not this year though! While some teams have clinched a berth, it seems that every playoff seed is still up for grabs – making this just another week!
Happy New Years Everyone! Have fun and stay safe this weekend!
Week 17 – HERE WE GO!!!
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
16 – BUFFALO over New England – Bills get a nice breather before their season finale fight with the Dolphins next week.
15 – PHILADELPHIA over Arizona – The Eagles drew a lucky end of the year schedule to say the least.
14 – JACKSONVILLE over Carolina – Talk about needing this break in the schedule…seems to be a trend with the start of our sheet this week.
13 – San Francisco over WASHIGTON – Pretty easy to say that Brock Purdy will not have another game this week like he did last week.
12 – CLEVELAND over New York Jets – Ah yes, another “in prime time because we thought Aaron Rodgers would be playing” matchup.
11 – HOUSTON over Tennessee – This is completely based on CJ Stroud starting. If he’s not, drop this down several lines.
10 – KANSAS CITY over Cincinnati – So Taylor Swift is a curse, right?
9 – TAMPA BAY over New Orleans – Watch out for Tampa! My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that NOT ONLY WILL TAMPA WIN THE NFC SOUTH, THEY WILL WIN A PLAYOFF GAME AS WELL.
8 – CHICAGO over Atlanta – I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, this season has gone perfect for the Bears!
7 – DALLAS over Detroit – This will be fun to see in a few weeks in the playoffs as well!
6 – Los Angeles Rams over NEW YORK GIANTS – I feel like the stands will be empty in a sign of New York solidarity with Tommy DeVito
5 – Las Vegas over INDIANAPOLIS – Could … could the Raiders make the playoffs??
4 – BALTIMORE over Miami – AFC Championship preview?
3 – SEATTLE over Pittsburgh – I feel like these two teams have been hard to predict lately…so flip a coin on this one.
2 – Green Bay over MINNESOTA –
1 – DENVER over Los Angeles Chargers – I called Russell Wilson being a bust as soon as the Broncos signed him … … … just saying.
To say this has been a year of uncertainty is an understatement.
So many injuries, coaching changes, player issues shaped this season into pure unpredictability. So we’re are gonna end the year with a toss up of our own. Winners will be picked like normal, but the points list will be based on when the games are played – should add an additional degree of interest to the season finale in Miami Sunday Night!
Before we get into the games, I just wanted to say thank you again for following along this year! I hope I helped you in your pools this year…and I’ll see you in September!
Week 18 – HERE WE GO!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
16 – MIAMI over Buffalo – We start with a symbol of the craziness – through the pre-season of Bills and Jets talk, the Dolphins end up winning the AFC East.
15 – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS over Kansas City – The Taylor Swift curse has been fun to watch.
14 – Los Angeles Rams over SAN FRANCISCO – Who knows who will play for the 9ers?
13 – ARIZONA over Seattle – This season seems like it should end with an L for the Seahawks
12 – Philadelphia over NEW YORK GIANTS – Did the Taylor Swift curse carry over to the whole Kelce family?
11 – LAS VEGAS over Denver – Give Pierce the job!
10 – Dallas over WASHINGTON – I wouldn’t be surprised if Washing pulls off the unnecessary upset in this one.
9 – GREEN BAY over Chicago – The future is bright Bears fans. My final BOLD PREDICTION for the season is that JUSTIN FIELDS WILL BE UNDER CENTER FOR THE BEARS TO START THE 2024 SEASON.
8 – CINCINNATI over Cleveland – Who knew it would be the Bengals season coming to an embarrassing end here and now the Browns!
7 – Tampa Bay over CAROLINA – The Bucs will win the NFC South…that’s the level of excitement this game deserves.
6 – New York Jets over NEW ENGLAND – So long, Bill!
5 – NEW ORLEANS over Atlanta – I’ll put the Falcons as the favorites to win the NFC South next year
4 – DETROIT over Minnesota – I can both see the Lions losing their first playoff game, and winning the NFC.
3 – Jacksonville over TENNESSEE – Despite their best efforts to blow it, the Jags will squeak out another AFC South title.
2 – INDIANAPOLIS over Houston – The Texans have set up something special for their future.
1 – Pittsburgh over BALTIMORE – I’ve gone against the Steelers too much to not pick them this week.
What an incredible time to be alive! The sports betting business is booming as more and more states pass legislation to legalize and collect, on the once-taboo activity. Whether or not you’re new to sports betting or you’ve had means of betting for some time now, the fact remains that every bettor needs to have a strategy to have any shot at being successful. In that last couple of years, I would say that I transitioned from a true average Joe bettor to a more informed and strategic amateur bettor. The first step in the progression for me was identifying a strategy and sticking to it.
I don’t make a living betting on sports. As much as I would love to eventually learn to handicap and create my own power ratings, it’s not something that is in the cards for me right now. I would venture to guess that a majority of sports bettors feel this way. So what’s the next best thing? Start your sports betting fundamentals with a contrarian strategy.
A contrarian is simply someone who “opposes or rejects popular opinion”. In sports betting this is also referred to as fading the public. I’ve been the public. The guy betting on my basic instinct and bias. Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees on Monday Night Football, how can I not take the over! Of course, I would look at the line, but my bias placed the bet before I had even grabbed my phone. Sportsbooks and oddsmakers are very aware of public bias and they build this into their lines. Contrarian bettors take advantage of this to get more value in our picks.
Identifying public bias and understanding how the books play into this is the most important tenet of being a contrarian bettor. Favorites are a staple of the public bettors. The books build this bias into their numbers. So, let’s say a book runs their power rankings and it shows that Seattle should be a 4-point favorite, they will shade the line towards Seattle and make them, for sake of argument, 4.5 or 5 point favorites knowing the public is more often than not taking them anyway. Immediately out of the gate a contrarian bettor is getting a half-point to full point value simply because of public betting bias. The same is true for home teams. So, using the same example from above, Seattle is a 5-point favorite with the public bias computed in, if they are at home you would see this line increase even more making Seattle -8 or perhaps even higher. That is not to say that there are not advantages to playing at home, but rather that the bookmakers already take this into account when setting the number and essentially protect against the home field advantage bias. A team like Seattle could see a shade towards their home field advantage because it’s widely known that Seattle is a tough stadium to play in with the 12th man. Notice that I didn’t even mention who Seattle was playing. Obviously, the opponent factors into the lines, but the point I am trying to make is purely to show how public betting bias plays into the creation of lines. A contrarian bettor in this fictional scenario is already gaining, at minimum, a half-point of extra value before we even break down other factors.
Overs are another popular pick for public bettors. Who doesn’t want to see points? I will be the first to admit it is more fun to watch a shootout and more scoring, however, this is another bias that is built into the number. Much like the spread on the favorite is shaded to account for public bias, so is the over. So, let’s stick to the football examples. A matchup formula may indicate that a game total will be around 47 points. The house will shade this line to build in public betting bias and would open the line at 47.7, 48, or 48.5. Again, contrarians gain inherent value looking at unders to play because of this built-in adjustment.
Favorites, home teams, and overs are just 3 examples of how being a contrarian immediately builds value in your bets. Ranked vs unranked bias shades the lines toward the ranked team. A team with a better win-loss record may see shaded lines. Even recent games play into the psychological effects of betting. A team coming off a huge win is more likely to receive heavy betting from public bettors because that big win is fresh in their minds. At the end of the day, it is extremely important to recognize these biases and even more important to understand that the bookmakers have already taken them into account.
Being a contrarian is simply a foundation. It’s a starting point for which to build fundamentals in the way you bet and the games you bet on. It is not the end all be all, however, it does allow you to take advantage of the betting market and in many cases even capitalize on the extra value in your bets because you are fading the public bias.