Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve made it past the halfway point of the regular season. By now you should have a pretty good idea of where your team stands. Are you a contender? Or are you just hoping to squeak into the playoffs and hope for the best? This is the time of year when unlikely players start to make waves due to injuries and attrition, and a lot of the time those unlikely fantasy heroes are rookies. The Carlos Hyde trade has put another rookie on the map as Nick Chubb becomes the every-week starter in Cleveland. Peyton Barber’s injury may have opened up more playing time for Ronald Jones II. Ted Ginn’s trip to IR could pave the way for Tre’Quan Smith to be a stud down the stretch. I’m sure there will be others as well. Let’s take a look at what to expect from the rookie crop in week 8…
Rookies to Start:
RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 8: vs. Was.): Of course you’re going to start Barkley in all season-long formats this week. He’s been the number 2 fantasy RB this season (all scoring and rankings referenced are in PPR format), but this may not be the best week to fire him up in DFS tournaments. Saquon did finish as the RB5 in his first game without 100 scrimmage yards, but Washington has allowed the 10th fewest RB points per game this year and ranks 4th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat on throws to opposing backs. While Saquon is capable of overcoming a less than tempting matchup, he’s not the chalk DFS play this week.
RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 8: vs. Sea.): Kerryon put on a show last Sunday in Miami, but until Matt Patricia and the Lions realize that LeGarrette Blount shouldn’t be getting 10 carries per game, Johnson will remain a boom-or-bust RB2 option each week. After the monster rushing game Kerryon posted in week 7, I’m optimistic Detroit will start to unleash him a bit more. He does get a decent matchup against a middling Seattle run defense. The Seahawks rank 15th at limiting opposing RB points on a per game basis, and rank 12th in run defense DVOA. It would be hard to sit him after what he did last weekend even if it is a bit of point chasing.
RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 8: @KC): Lindsay could be poised for a big game if teammate and fellow rookie Royce Freeman is unable to suit up this week, which seems a likely scenario. The Chiefs allow the 2nd-most RB points per game and rank dead last in run defense DVOA. Even if Freeman plays, the game script will likely be to Lindsay’s advantage with Kansas City a 10-point favorite. I like Lindsay as a solid RB2 this week, and he has legit RB1 upside if Freeman’s high-ankle sprain keeps him sidelined.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 8: @Pit.): The Steelers have been playing better pass defense of late, but they still rank just 20th in pass defense DVOA on the season. Mayfield has been a bit turnover prone since taking the starting gig, but he’s still finished as the QB15, QB21 and QB6 in the past 3 weeks. He’ll be a borderline QB2 in super-flex and 2 quarterback leagues once again in this one.
RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 8: @Pit.): Chubb’s increased role should make him a sure-fire starter in most formats, but the matchup this week is a tough one. The Steelers allow the 2nd-fewest RB fantasy points per game, and the Steelers are a touchdown favorite. If game-script keeps the Browns throwing, it’ll be Duke Johnson who benefits most in the Cleveland backfield. The Steelers are the only team in the league that hasn’t allowed an opposing backfield to get to 20 PPR points in a game all year.
RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 8: @KC): As mentioned above with Phillip Lindsay, Freeman is nursing an ankle injury that may sideline him in a prime matchup. If he’s able to play, he’ll be an intriguing flex option against the team that ranks 32nd in run defense DVOA, but game script won’t play in his favor with Denver a heavy underdog. Keep a close eye on the injury updates Sunday to confirm he’s active if you’re considering starting Royce.
WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 8: vs. SF): Kirk remains a decent flex option for deeper leagues this week. He’s averaging 4.6 catches and 66.4 receiving yards per game in his past 5, and he posted 3-85-1 in the first meeting with San Francisco. He’s clearly Josh Rosen’s favorite target in the passing game, and the 49ers rank 23rd in pass defense DVOA.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 8: vs. SF): Rosen is one of just 2 quarterbacks all year to finish lower than QB13 when facing the 49ers. The matchup is good, and I’m confident Rosen will eventually get things together, but you just can’t bank on a productive game from Rosen in any matchup. He’s no more than a QB2 in a league where you have no other options.
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 9: @Chi.): Darnold hasn’t shown enough upside consistently to be trusted in any format this week. You could roll the dice in a 2-QB league, but Darnold and the Jets average the 6th-fewest passing yards and the 4th-lowest QB rating in the league. The Bears’ defense has been one of the league’s best. Chicago ranks 5th in pass defense DVOA and have are in the top-10 in the league at limiting QB rating.
RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 8: @Buf.): This would be a great spot to use Michel if he were fully healthy. The Patriots are a 2-touchdown favorite and the Bills are allowing the 9th-most RB points per game. Sony seems to have avoided any sort of serious damage despite his injury looking bad when it happened, but I’d still be surprised if he were able to play this week. Even if he does, I’d expect his work to be limited since the Pats probably won’t need him to get a win this week. Michel will play a big role down the stretch, and I don’t think New England wants to risk his health in a game they should win easily.
RBs Nyheim Hines & Jordan Wilkins, IND (Wk. 8: @Oak.): With Marlon Mack storming onto the scene over the last two weeks, Hines and Wilkins have taken a back seat. They did see some work late in a blowout win over Jacksonville last week, but Mack appears to be the clear lead back for now. Hines does have some upside in deep PPR leagues, but his pass-catching role has been diminished lately. He averaged nearly 6 catches per game in the first 5 weeks, and has just 3 total receptions in the past 2.
RB Ronald Jones II, TB (Wk. 8: @Cin.): Even if Barber does sit the week out, the Buccaneers have struggled mightily to run the ball, and RoJo likely will have to contend with Jacquizz Rodgers for 3rd-down work. Jones has averaged fewer than 3 yards per carry for the season, and Barber wasn’t much better with less than 3.5 per carry.
WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 8: vs. Bal.): Moore is still just a secondary option for the Panthers’ offense, and Baltimore has allowed the 3rd-fewest WR points per game. DJ has been more involved lately, but this isn’t the best week to roll the dice on a spike in production.
WRs Marquez Valdes-Scantling & Equanimeous St. Brown, GB (Wk. 8: @LAR): With Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison both on track to play this week, the pair of rookie receivers should be relegated to backup duty once again. Valdes-Scantling does have WR3 upside this week if either Cobb or Allison sits again.
WR DJ Chark, JAX (Wk. 8: vs. Phi.): Chark got a bit more run last Sunday than we’ve seen from him this year, but that came in a blowout loss to the Colts. It also likely helped Chark that the team turned to fellow second-stringer Cody Kessler at QB during the game. The Eagles are a vulnerable pass defense, but I’d still expect Chark to go back to his normal bench role. DJ is a shoot the moon DFS tournament play at best.
TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 8: @Jax.): Goedert had a strong showing in week 6 with a 4-43-1 line, but I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance with the Jaguars allowing the 2nd-fewest TE points per game. With Ertz at the top of the target pecking order, there won’t be enough to go around for Goedert in this one.
TE Mike Gesicki, MIA (Wk. 8: @Hou.): Gesicki had a reasonable performance in week 6 with a 3-44 line. He out-produced Nick O’Leary in the game, but played just 16 offensive snaps compared to 39 for O’Leary. Until that changes Gesicki remains an un-startable option.
TEs Hayden Hurst & Mark Andrews, BAL (Wk. 8: @Car.): The Ravens’ tight end group has proven to be a muddled mess all season. No TE played even 50% of the week 7 snaps for Baltimore. Andrews played just 38%, and Hurst played an even more paltry 26%. Those aren’t useful snap counts.
Rookies on Byes: RB Ito Smith, ATL, WR Calvin Ridley, ATL, WR Michael Gallup, DAL
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
WR Tre’Quan Smith, NO (Wk. 8: @Min.): I’d have a lot more faith in Smith this week if he had a better matchup. The Vikings have allowed the 5th-fewest WR points per game, which is incredible considering they gave up an astounding 83.9 to the Rams’ receivers. Smith has established himself as the Saints’ WR2 with Ted Ginn on IR, and that’s a fantasy role with lots of upside as long as Drew Brees is under center. He didn’t post a huge game last weekend, but his 6 targets were 6 more than Cam Meredith saw. At the very least, Tre’Quan should be rostered in all formats.
WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 8: vs. NYJ): Miller was targeted 7 times in his 2nd game back from a shoulder injury, and the Jets allow the 5th-most WR points per game. I don’t expect Trubisky to throw 50 times again this week, so Miller is more of a DFS dart throw than a season-long option, but the fact that he got more opportunity than Taylor Gabriel last Sunday is a promising sign.
WRs Antonio Callaway & Damion Ratley, CLE (Wk. 8: @Pit.): The Steelers are a touchdown favorite, and are allowing the 6th-most WR points per game. Jarvis Landry isn’t going to score all the fantasy points from this group, which means one of this duo should have a better than expected day. Callaway has been playing more snaps and getting more opportunity, but Ratley has been more efficient with his opportunities. Callaway’s blazing speed gives him the higher level of upside.
WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 8: @KC): This is a decent opportunity for Sutton to be an intriguing DFS dart throw. Denver will be throwing, and Sutton has been playing nearly as much as Demaryius Thomas lately. The Chiefs are allowing the 13th-most WR points per game. Sutton is hard to trust in season-long leagues, but you can pick your spots to try him in DFS, and this is one of those spots where he’s worth considering.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with some of your tougher lineup decisions that involve rookies as we get deeper into these pivotal weeks. Keep an eye on the injury report to see what happens with Peyton Barber, Sony Michel and Royce Freeman, and anyone else on your teams that is nicked up right now. Feel free to hit me up on twitter if you have any questions or want to harass me about any of the info above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Here’s hoping the first 6 weeks of the season have treated you better than they have Devonta Freeman, Marcus Mariota, and the entire Arizona Cardinals team. Week 6 saw a couple of promising rookies come back to earth a bit as Nyheim Hines, Calvin Ridley, and Keke Coutee all saw dips in production, and both receivers suffered injuries as well. Both are likely to play this week, but it’s a setback nonetheless. We’re getting closer to the part of the season where unexpected rookies start to take on bigger roles. We’re also getting into the serious bye weeks with some high-powered offenses taking week 7 off – Green Bay, Pittsburgh and Seattle. Are there rookies who can help you fill in? Is this the week we finally start to see something from Nick Chubb, Mike Gesicki, or Ronald Jones? Let’s dive into week 7 and discuss…
Rookies to Start:
RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 7: @Atl.): Of course Barkley is an every-week starter at this point as the number 3 fantasy running back on the year (all ranks and point totals are in PPR scoring), but he should be worth his lofty price tag in DFS lineups this Sunday. The Falcons have allowed the most RB catches on the year, and the 2nd-most RB receiving yards. They also allow the 3rd-most fantasy points to the position. This is probably the best matchup Barkley will get all season.
RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 7: @Chi.): The matchup is a tough one for Michel this week. The Bears rank 4th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, and allow the 2nd-fewest RB points per game, but Sony and the Pats are on too much of a roll to hide from a tough matchup. Sony has averaged 105 rushing yards per game and found the end zone 4 times in the last 3 weeks. Even if he doesn’t match that kind of output this week, he should be a solid RB2 in week 7.
RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 7: @Ari.): Arizona has been gouged by opposing backs, allowing the 2nd-most points to the position per game. Lindsay’s receiving floor makes him the safer and more attractive play between he and fellow rookie Royce Freeman. There is upside there for both guys this week, but I’d lean Lindsay if you have both. With the number of byes this week, you’d have a hard time convincing me Lindsay isn’t a top-20 RB play this week.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 7: @TB): The Bucs haven’t met a QB that they could hold under 330 passing yards yet, and only one that they’ve held below 3 passing scores. They’ve allowed more QB fantasy points per game than any other team and rank dead last in pass defense DVOA. Mayfield has been less efficient than I’d like and has turned the ball over a bunch, but this matchup gives him big upside. I dare you not to start him in a 2-QB league this week.
RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 7: @Mia.): This is about as good a matchup as Kerryon has had all year. I’d be listing him as a back to start if I had any faith that the Lions would commit to getting him the ball. The Dolphins allow the 5th-most RB points per game, and the Lions should be in a positive game script as a 3-point road favorite. Miami is vulnerable to receiving backs, so Theo Riddick could be in line for a nice flex-worthy game as well, but Kerryon should be right on the cusp of an RB2 this week assuming the touches are there.
RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 7: @Ari.): As I mentioned with Phillip Lindsay, the Cardinals are bad at defending running backs. The Cardinals have allowed 8 rushing scores on the year and have coughed up 140+ rushing yards to the position in 3 straight weeks. While I like Lindsay a little better this week due to his receiving floor, Freeman has enough upside to be a solid flex play this week.
WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 7: vs. Den.): Kirk is quickly building a rapport with fellow rookie Josh Rosen, but he gets a reasonably tough matchup this week. There’s a low floor for everyone in this passing game, but Kirk has caught for 77+ yards in 3 of the last 4 weeks. That’s at least flex-worthy in a week with some top talent on byes.
WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 7: vs. NYG): Ridley’s game was cut short last week due to an injury. The TDs have dried up a little bit over the last couple games, but that upside that we’ve seen keeps him in the flex/WR3 discussion this week. Only Jacksonville allows fewer WR points per game than the Giants, but this game has the 2nd-highest over/under of the week.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 7: vs. Den.): Only 2 quarterbacks have thrown for multiple TDs against this Broncos’ defense on the year, and Denver ranks 8th in the league in pass defense DVOA. Rosen is averaging just 10.2 fantasy points per game through 3 starts. This isn’t a good week to count on that improving.
RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 7: @TB): You know the deal here. He just isn’t getting enough opportunity to be useful. He carried just 3 times last week.
RB Ronald Jones, TB (Wk. 7: vs. Cle.): Jones is finally starting to see a little bit of playing time and gets a favorable matchup this week, but played just 12 snaps total and saw 4 touches last week. He’s not ready for primetime just yet.
WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 7: @Ari.): If Patrick Peterson would just follow Emmanuel Sanders into the slot, there might be some legit opportunity for Sutton this week. Instead, Peterson will likely be blanketing Demaryius Thomas while the Cards let Sanders have his way in the slot. Sutton remains just a DFS dart throw.
WR Keke Coutee, HOU (Wk. 7: @Jax.): Coutee is working through a hamstring injury, which saps his biggest asset – his speed. Deshaun Watson is also a bit banged up and they face a Jaguars’ defense that allows the fewest points in the league to opposing WRs. I’d expect a performance closer to last week from Coutee (3-33) rather than the 17 catches he put up the 2 weeks before.
WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 7: vs. NE): The Bears’ passing attack has broken out a bit over the past couple weeks, but Miller is yet to top 35 yards or 5 targets in a game. He’s no more than a DFS tournament punt play for the time being.
TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 7: vs. Car.): Goedert gets a decent matchup this week, but as I’ve noted in this column in previous weeks, his role is nearly non-existent with Alshon Jeffery back. Two targets a week isn’t going to result in usable stat lines.
TEs Mark Andrews & Hayden Hurst, BAL (Wk. 7: vs. NO): The tight end position is heavily utilized in the Ravens’ offense, but there are too many guys involved to trust any of them. Andrews seems to have the most receiving upside of the quartet, but he and Hurst each played 20 snaps or less last weekend. Until someone really separates himself, there isn’t much use for these guys.
TE Mike Gesicki, MIA (Wk. 7: vs. Det.): Gesicki has seemingly been passed on the depth chart by Nick O’Leary. Yikes.
Rookies on Byes: RB Rashaad Penny, SEA, WRs Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown, GB, WR James Washington, PIT
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 7: vs. Min.): Darnold has actually been a top-15 QB in each of the past 2 weeks, and the Vikings have quietly been struggling to defend the pass. Minnesota ranks just 25th in pass defense DVOA, and has allowed the 8th-most QB points per game. You could do worse than Darnold as a QB2 this week or as a cheap DFS tournament option at QB in a week with no Big Ben, Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers.
RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 7: vs. NYG): Devonta Freeman was placed on IR this week, and Ito actually out-touched Tevin Coleman last week. The Giants rank just 22nd in run defense DVOA, and Atlanta is a 5.5-point favorite this week. I like Ito as a flex play in deep leagues where you’re looking for a replacement option. He’s found the end zone in 3 straight. That streak will eventually end, but he’s got nice upside for week 7.
RB Nyheim Hines, IND (Wk. 7: vs. Buf.): Hines’s snap count saw a pretty big dip with Marlon Mack back in the lineup last weekend, but he still played more snaps than the aforementioned Mack. The Bills have been solid at defending RBs, but they rank 22nd in pass defense DVOA on throws to opposing backs. Hines is the best receiving RB on the team. He might see his production bounce back a bit this week in PPR leagues.
WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 7: @Phi.): Moore has now seen solid production in back-to-back weeks (minus the 2 fumbles last week). He’s posted 4-49 with an 18-yard run, and 4-59 with an 18-yard run in the past 2 contests. The Eagles allow the 7th-most WR points per game. Moore hasn’t been consistent enough this year to warrant more than a flex play in the deepest of leagues or in DFS tournaments, but if he continues to progress you’ll be using him in normal 12-team leagues before you know it.
WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 7: @TB): Callaway saw his snaps and targets return last week, but still without the production. He turned 72 offensive snaps and 10 targets into just 2 catches for 9 yards. If he’s ever going to get it going now is the time. The Bucs allow the 2nd-most WR points per game and rank dead last in pass defense DVOA. He’s no more than a cheap DFS tournament play, but this could be the week where he finally puts something together.
WR Tre’Quan Smith, NO (Wk. 7: @Bal.): Smith’s Monday night outburst before the team’s bye may have seemed like a one-time fluke, but it looks like Ted Ginn may be out again this week. He isn’t practicing as of Wednesday. Smith played about two-thirds of the offensive snaps with Ginn sidelined in week 5. If that repeats itself here, Tre’Quan is an intriguing DFS tournament play against a Ravens’ defense that has hardly been a shutdown unit against competent passing attacks.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with some of your tougher rookie lineup decisions this week. Keep an eye on the injury report this week. There are plenty of rookies dealing with their own injuries, and a few others who could be impacted by injuries to teammates like Tre’Quan and Ito Smith. Feel free to hit me up on twitter if you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We've made it about halfway through the NFL season, so it's time to kick your playoff push for the fantasy playoffs into high gear. This week is going to challenge many fantasy teams with SIX NFL teams on a bye, and among them several peak fantasy performers. With that in mind, there are going to be some unexpected rookies who are going to push themselves into the usable range in shallower leagues. There were also some trades this week that may have opened up new opportunities for a couple rookies. Before I dive into the week 9 breakdown, I did want to mention one rookie who is sitting out this week on bye. Eagles' rookie Josh Adams is well worth a pickup after providing a solid rushing effort last week in a wide open backfield. He has a chance to be a top-30 back down the stretch if his performance continues. Now let's look at the outlook for the rest of the rooks...
Rookies to Start:
RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 9: vs. Hou.): Royce Freeman is likely going to be sidelined this week and Lindsay has done well to establish himself as a weekly RB2 even with Freeman healthy. The Texans aren't an inviting matchup, ranking 1st in the league in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA stat, but there's no reason to sit Lindsay in a week with so many top options on byes.
RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 9: vs. KC): Chubb also will likely be a beneficiary of all of the byes this week. Saquon, Marlon Mack, Joe Mixon and David Johnson are all off this week, and Kansas City allows more RB fantasy points per game than any other team in the league. The Browns' offense has been sputtering lately, and things are in flux with the coaching changes, but Chubb should be a solid RB2 in a plus matchup this week. The only fear is that game script may get away from him with the Browns a 10-point underdog.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 9: vs. KC): KC's been sharp against the pass in the last 2 weeks, but they've still allowed the 7th-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. Mayfield has been less than stellar over the past couple weeks, but he's recorded at least 1 touchdown in every start he's made this year, and the coaching changes may provide a boost to Mayfield and the offense. With 6 QBs out this week, Mayfield makes for a reasonable QB2 option.
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 9: @Mia.): In 2-QB leagues, just about everyone is in play this week. Darnold strikes me as more of a desperation option, but there is some reason for optimism. His yardage totals have been low (more than 210 passing yards just twice in 8 games), but the Dolphins have coughed up multiple TDs in 4 of the past 5 contests, and have given up 14 total passing TDs in those weeks. They also rank just 26th in pass defense DVOA. There are worse fill-in options this week for 2-QB formats.
RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 9: @Min.): You're almost certainly going to play Kerryon if you have him given how he's played lately, especially with the byes and with the Lions likely to employ a more balanced approach with Golden Tate shipped off to Philly. The issue for Kerryon this week is the matchup, and the possible return of Theo Riddick. Minnesota has allowed just one team's RB group to top 60 rushing yards in the past 4 weeks, and they rank 10th in run defense DVOA. Theo may cut into his passing game work. This makes Johnson a risky RB2 for week 9.
RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 9: vs. GB): Keep a close eye on the injury report with Michel. He got in a limited practice on Saturday before not playing on Monday night, so there is a decent chance he plays this week. It's a solid matchup if he's able to suit up with Green Bay ranking 24th in run defense DVOA. He's a worthy flex or RB2 option if he's able to play. The Pats are unlikely to hold him back if they played Cordarrelle Patterson in his stead on Monday.
WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 9: @Was.): Ridley may even be in play for you as a WR2 if you're hard up due to byes. He's been quiet lately after his early season TD barrage, being held to under 50 receiving yards in each of the past 3 contests with zero scores, but he was the 2nd-most targeted Falcon last week after Julio Jones. This week is a good opportunity for him to get back on track against a middling Washington WR defense. There's risk here that he continues to stay in the 3-40-0 range, but I like his chances for a bounceback game.
WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk.9: vs. TB): This will be as good a week as any to take a risk on DJ Moore. The Bucs allow the 2nd most WR points per game, and rank dead last in pass defense DVOA. Moore's role has been rapidly increasing. Over the past 4 games he's tallied 18 catches for 237 yards, and 4 rushes for 75, and he set a season-high with 129 scrimmage yards in week 8. There's a chance he duplicates that feat in a great matchup.
WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 9: vs. Hou.): With Demaryius Thomas gone, the WR2 role in Denver is wide open for Sutton to take over. That role didn't exactly work out well for DT, but the Texans rank 30th in pass defense DVOA on throws to the number 2 WR. He's more of an upside play than a safe option this week, but the drop off in target competition should give him a higher floor moving forward.
Rookies to Sit:
RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 9: vs. KC): If Freeman manages to play, he'll likely take a back seat to Phillip Lindsay and be eased back into action. Since the Texans rank 1st in run defense DVOA, this probably isn't the best spot to take a chance on a limited Freeman.
RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 9: @Was.): Ito has upside as long as Devonta Freeman is out, but this isn't a great matchup. Washington has allowed just 90 total rushing yards and zero total TDs to running backs in the past 3 weeks, and they faced Zeke, Saquon, and McCaffrey in that stretch. Ito isn't on that level. I'd look elsewhere for RB help this week.
RB Justin Jackson, LAC (Wk.9: @Sea.): Ok, so you weren't actually considering playing Jackson this week, but he's definitely worth watching for those of you playing in dynasty leagues if Melvin Gordon is out again. Rookie scouting guru Matt Waldman compared Jackson with Jamaal Charles in this year's Rookie Scouting Portfolio, and this may be the first real look we get at him. He was ultra-productive in college at Northwestern. If he impresses, he may be worth a stash in deeper dynasty formats.
WR Keke Coutee, HOU (Wk. 9: @Den.): Keke's status is still up in the air this week as he works his way back from a hamstring injury, and his overall outlook took a hit with the trade for Demaryius Thomas. Coutee will still have WR3 upside when healthy, but I'd probably steer clear this week. The Broncos' best corner Chris Harris Jr patrols the slot, and the Broncos rank 2nd in pass defense DVOA on throws to WRs who aren't their team's #1 or 2.
WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk.9: vs. Ten.): Gallup seemed to be making strides when he posted his best game of the year before the bye (3-81-1)...then thee Cowboys went out and traded for Amari Cooper. Cooper's role as the team's WR1 should be obvious after the team spent a first round pick to acquire him. The rest of the WR group already was tough to figure out, and now there are less snaps and targets to divvy up between them. Keep Gallup parked on the bench until we see him emerge with Amari around.
WR Damion Ratley, CLE (Wk. 9: vs. KC): Ratley had just one catch in week 8, and it's likely that Rashard Higgins will return this week and push Ratley back to the bench.
TEs Hayden Hurst & Mark Andrews, BAL (Wk. 9: @Pit.): Andrews continues to be the most involved TE in the Ravens' passing game, but it isn't resulting in fantasy success. Hurst did post his first career TD last Sunday after head coach John Harbaugh talked about getting him more involved, but it came in garbage time with Lamar Jackson at QB. Neither player is doing enough to trust this week.
TE Jordan Thomas, HOU (Wk. 9: @Den.): Don't be fooled by the 2 touchdowns from last week, tight ends don't get featured in this offense. Thomas had just 4 catches all season prior to week 8, and in his 'breakout' 2-TD game he was asked to block on nearly two-thirds of the snaps he played. I wouldn't expect a repeat performance.
Rookies on Bye: QB Josh Rosen, ARI, RB Saquon Barkley, NYG, RB Josh Adams, PHI, RBs Nyheim Hines & Jordan Wilkins, IND, RB Chase Edmonds, ARI, RB Mark Walton, CIN, WR Christian Kirk, ARI, WR DJ Chark, JAX, TE Dallas Goedert, PHI
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Trenton Cannon, NYJ (Wk. 9: @Mia.): The Dolphins are favored to win this game, and they've allowed the 9th-most RB receiving yards on the year. Cannon wasn't overly productive last week, but he will continue to play the 3rd-down role at least until Eli McGuire returns from IR. He's only an option in deep PPR leagues this week. Make sure that McGuire isn't returning this week before pulling the trigger.
WR Tre'Quan Smith, NO (Wk. 9: vs. LAR): I'm still on the Tre'Quan train despite limited results over the past 2 weeks. Drew Brees likely won't be limited to 120 passing yards again in a game with the highest over/under of the week, and Smith is running as the Saints' WR2. He'll be hard to trust in anything but deeper leagues and DFS tournaments, but there is still big upside here.
WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 9: @Buf.): Miller has been targeted 7 times in each of the last 2 weeks, and it seems there's a good chance A-Rob misses another game this week. The rookie has caught just 5 of those 14 targets for 72 yards and a score, but he's likely to avoid the coverage of Tre'Davious White since White rarely goes into the slot. Miller is a better option than teammate Taylor Gabriel this week.
WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB (Wk.9: @NE): Despite the return to action of Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison in week 8, Valdes-Scantling still played ahead of them. It may just be the Packers easing the injured guys back in, but if it continues here MVS has some decent upside. This tilt has shootout potential with the 2nd-highest O/U of the week.
WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 9: vs. KC): Callaway finally had a game where he caught more than half of his targets, pulling in 5-of-6 opportunities and finding the end zonein week 8. The yardage was limited, but it was still a good sign to see his efficiency improve. The Browns will likely be throwing a lot this week, and the Chiefs are a good matchup for WRs. I'm not ready to fully trust Callaway, but he's an interesting upside play this week, especially as a cheap DFS tournament option.
WR DaeSean Hamilton, DEN (Wk. 9: vs. Hou.): We haven't seen much of Hamilton yet, but with Demaryius shipped off to Houston he should step into the WR3 role that resulted in a few productive weeks for Courtland Sutton. DaeSean is an intriguing stash for deeper dynasty leagues to see how his role shakes out without DT.
TE Chris Herndon, NYJ (Wk. 9: @Mia.): There isn't a lot of yardage upside with Herndon, but he's a better than average TD dart throw this week. The rookie tight end has scored a touchdown in 3 straight games, and the Dolphins have allowed 5 scores to the position in the last 3 contests.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with some of your toughest lineup decisions this week that involve rookies. It could be a messy week with so many byes, so make sure to keep an extra close eye on the injury report this week to make sure all of your players suit up, and to look for unexpected opportunity that can benefit your team. Feel free to reach out on twitter if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We've made it to the double-digit weeks, which means we're in the home stretch of the fantasy regular season. Week 9 saw the surprising debut of Nick Mullens, and an apocalyptic performance by Sam Darnold against the Dolphins. DJ Moore's purported breakout didn't quite go according to plan, but Calvin Ridley found his way back into the end zone and Marquez Valdes-Scantling continued his mid-season surge. Let's take a look at what to expect in week 10, and which rookies could help you improve your playoff positioning this week.
Rookies to Start:
RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 10: @SF): Of course you're starting Barkley in season-long leagues, but he should be a chalky play in DFS cash games this week as well. The 49ers should let him have a solid receiving day since only 4 teams have allowed more RB receptions and only 4 have allowed more RB receiving TDs on the year. Barkley has been the engine of the Giants' offense, and he's a strong RB1 this week once again.
RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 10: vs. Atl.): Duke Johnson is the more popular name after last weekend's 9-catch, 2-score game, but Chubb still notched more than 20 carries and faces a Falcons' defense that ranks 31st in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA. There's room in this matchup for both Chubb and Duke to be solid RB2s.
WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 10: @Cle.): Ridley got back into the end zone last week, and he's a reasonable WR3 option this week. The Browns aren't a great matchup, ranking 2nd in pass defense DVOA, but they have allowed the 11th-most WR points per game (all point totals and ranks are based on PPR scoring). This isn't a matchup to run away from. Ridley should be a solid WR3, but I wouldn't hold it against you if you had 3 really solid options to play over him and sat him.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 10: vs. Atl.): Atlanta has allowed the 3rd-most QB points per game on the year. They've allowed 6 of 7 QBs faced to reach 300 passing yards, and 6 of 7 to reach at least 20 fantasy points. Mayfield has thrown multiple TDs in 3 consecutive games. Mayfield should be a high floor QB2 this week with some appeal as a back-end QB1 in 12-team or deeper leagues.
RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 10: @Ten.): Sony should be active this week, but the Pats could ease him back in after the success Cordarrelle Patterson had at running back against Green Bay. The Titans are a tough matchup, allowing the 4th-fewest RB fantasy points per game, but it'll be tough to sit him if it looks like he'll get his usual role back. Sony tallied at least 92 rushing yards and a TD in each of the 3 full games he played.
RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 10: @Chi.): The Lions' offense really sputtered in their first game after dealing away Golden Tate. It was a tough matchup against a strong Vikings' defense, but things don't get much easier for Kerryon and company this week in Chicago. Johnson still has some upside, but the Bears are allowing the fewest RB fantasy points per game, and Theo Riddick's return has put a damper on KJ's receiving opportunities. Kerryon should be viewed as an upside flex play this weekend.
WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB (Wk. 10: vs. Mia.): Valdes-Scantling has been running as the number 2 WR for the Packers, even with Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison back on the field, and Allison suffered a season-ending groin injury last Sunday night. I'm not quite ready to go all-in on MVS due to his reliance on big plays to post fantasy production, but he's managed to reach double-digit scoring in 4 straight games. The number 2 WR in any Aaron Rodgers offense is a fantasy threat. The Dolphins are allowing just the 9th-fewest WR points per game, but MVS should be a boom-or-bust WR3 option.
WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 10: @KC): The Cardinals will undoubtedly be throwing a lot in this one as 17(!)-point underdogs to Kansas City. Kirk has been the most consistent fantasy WR in Arizona, averaging just under 13 PPR points per game in his past 6 contests. There's always some risk in this low-floor offense, especially now that there is a new coordinator who may try to get DJ and Fitz more involved, but Kirk's upside makes him a decent WR3 option in deeper PPR formats.
WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 10: @Pit.): Moore was a big letdown in a great matchup last Sunday, but he may have been limited by Carolina playing from way ahead most of the day. I wouldn't expect the same result in the Steel City. Pittsburgh isn't as tantalizing a matchup as Tampa, but it's not far behind. The Steelers allow the 6th-most WR points per game. I don't know if this will come up in the game, but the Steelers also have allowed 10 yards per carry to WRs on the 4 attempts they've faced, and Moore is averaging 17 yards per rush on 7 carries. I'd expect a carry or 2 for DJ again. If you were burned by Moore last week, you may hesitate to roll the dice again, but I would be willing to go back to that well.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Nick Mullens, SF (Wk. 10: vs. NYG.): Mullens technically isn't a rookie after spending all of 2017 on the 49ers practice squad, but I'll make an exception and include him after his breakout NFL debut last Thursday. I'd be surprised if Mullens manages to replicate his performance this week. The Giants allowed fewer than 240 passing yards in 5 games out of 8, and a total of just 5 TD passes in those 5 games. There is some appeal in deeper 2-QB leagues or as a cheap DFS tournament option, but he carries a ton of risk.
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 10: vs. Buf.): Darnold fell flat on his face in a plus matchup last week, and gets a much tougher one this Sunday. The Bills have allowed 10 fantasy points or fewer to 4 of the last 7 QBs they've faced, and they've allowed more than 1 passing touchdown to just one of them. Darnold isn't worth the risk even in 2QB leagues this week.
RBs Nyheim Hines & Jordan Wilkins, IND (Wk. 10: vs. Jax.): There is some deep league PPR upside for Hines, but Jacksonville allows just the 7th-fewest RB points per game and has given up the 2nd-fewest RB receptions. Wilkins is stuck behind Marlon Mack on early downs. Mack's big performances late have made Wilkins useless for fantasy purposes.
RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 10: @LAR): Even if Chris Carson sits, Penny just isn't getting enough opportunities to be a useful option. Mike Davis is going to see the lion's share of the work if Carson is out.
WR Tre'Quan Smith, NO (Wk. 10: @Cin.): Tre'Quan has struggled to breakout as the Saints' WR2, and New Orleans added Dez Bryant this week. Smith may still work as the number 2 guy this week, and there's always big potential as the WR2 in this offense, but he's got no more than 3 catches in a game and has only topped 44 yards once. If you're considering using him, keep a close eye on the expected playing time for Dez this week.
WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 10: @Phi.): I was tempted to call Gallup a sleeper this week, but it's hard to get too excited about his upside in this offense even if he's the WR2. Philly has allowed the 4th-most WR points per game, and Gallup has averaged 3 catches for 66 yards in the past 2 games. There's some upside if you want to roll the dice on him as a DFS punt option, but I probably wouldn't consider him for much more than that.
TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 10: vs. Dal.): Goedert is basically a TD dart throw this week against a defense that has allowed just 2 tight end scores on the year. He's posted a total of 10-111-2 over the past 5 games.
TE Chris Herndon, NYJ (Wk. 10: vs. Buf.): Herndon's role has been growing, but he faces a tough matchup this week. The Bills rank 4th in pass defense DVOA on throws to tight ends, and have allowed an average of 2-26 per game over the past 5 games and gave up 2 scores to the position in that span. You're basically praying for a TD if you play him.
Deep-League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 10: @KC): The Chiefs have been improving steadily against the pass, so Rosen is probably no more than a QB2 in the deepest of leagues, but Rosen has had an extra week to get ready for this game and the new offensive coordinator had an extra week to get David Johnson more involved. As improved as they are, Kansas City has still allowed the 6th-most QB points per game. Rosen has a reasonable chance to post his best fantasy game of the year.
RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 10: @Cle.): Tevin Coleman seems to have a firm grasp on the receiving work out of the backfield, but Ito continues to play a significant role as a runner. He's an intriguing flex option this week against a Browns' team that has allowed a league-high 12 RB rushing scores and ranks 30th in run defense DVOA. He's a better option in non-PPR leagues.
RB Josh Adams, PHI (Wk. 10: vs. Dal.): This might not be the best week to run Adams out there in lineups with the Cowboys ranking 4th in run defense DVOA. Josh's recent success has come as a runner, not as a receiver. Still, his 9-61 rushing day before last week's bye should at least earn him a bigger role moving forward in a wide-open backfield. He's worthy of a stash this week, and decent desperation option in deep leagues.
WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 10: vs. Atl.): Callaway's efficiency has been improving in the last couple weeks, and this is a prime matchup with the Falcons allowing the 3rd-most WR points per game. Antonio remains an upside option in deeper leagues.
WR DJ Chark, JAX (Wk. 10: @Ind.): Chark seemed to be ascending in this offense before the bye, posting 4 catches in back-to-back games. The matchup this week isn't enticing with the Colts ranking in the top-10 in the league at limiting WR points, but Chark is an intriguing stash in deeper leagues. He's got size and speed to burn, so his upside goes way up if the Jaguars start to utilize him downfield.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your tough lineup decisions involving the rookies this week. Keep a close eye on the injury report and make sure you don't play any players who wind up being inactive. Feel free to reach out on twitter if you have specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.