Welcome to week 8! We're more than halfway through the fantasy regular season and it's been an awesome ride, as is tradition. We started out the show going over some of the headlines from last week - check out my breakdown of Week 7.
We started a new segment where we will be betting on trends. Each week, we will spot a few trends and decide if the trends will keep going, or if the player will buck the trend. We will bet 5 drinks on each outcome. This week our results are: Denard Robinson - continue trending up; Zac Stacy - Jason says he'll score over 8, Dave says he'll trend down; Jay Cutler - continue trending down, less than 20 pts for sure; Allen Robinson - continues to trend up, around 12 pts again; Justin Hunter - continues to trend down; Travis Kelce - continues to trend down, less than 6 points; New England D/ST - Dave says 10 or more points, Jason says they will score less.
We also fielded questions from the peanut gallery this week to help you with waiver wire and start/sit decisions. To ask questions that we will answer on the show, tweet us @drinkfive, hit us up on our Facebook page, or shoot us an e-mail. Finally, we placed a bet for next week's beers. In Dave's eternal struggle to not have to buy a Zach Ertz jersey, he is betting against him again this week. Dave has Jordan Reed in standard scoring against my Zach Ertz. May the loser buy fine beers and the winner enjoy them mightily.
12/09/14, Week 15 - In Which Jonas Gray Has Disappeared
Welcome to another installment of the drinkfive Podcast. We’re knee deep in fantasy football playoffs, which is just fine with us! We broke down some of the fun stuff from week 14 before diving into our weekly segment, the trends. As always, we started it by drinking for the trends that we didn’t predict correctly last week. We also looked more into the trends themselves and what we should really be getting out of them.
For Week 15, we said that Matt Ryan will continue his upward trend and reach or exceed his line of 21 points against the Steelers. We looked a Demaryius Thomas and the Broncos and set his line at 14. Dave said he’d stick with the trend and go under, I said he’d break it and go over 14. Malcolm Floyd has been talked about a bunch lately and is trending up. Dave said he’d continue that and score over 8.5, I said he’d struggle and go under. Joquie Bell’s line was set at only 12 points and both of us went over for his matchup this week against the Vikings. Shane Vereen has been struggling and we both said that he would stay under 8 points against the Dolphins. Finally, we looked at Denard Robinson’s downward trend. This is now irrelevant as he’s on the IR. Drink five anyways!
To wrap up the show, we discussed waiver pickups for this week. Coming in the following weeks, we will gather all of the trend data, finish looking at where the top 10 ADP/finishing RB’s and WR’s are and have more guests!
- Carson Palmer has gotten over the shoulder issue now and is putting up very consistent points, while limiting turnovers. While it may be hard to tell which receiver on the Cardinals will have a great game between Fitzgerald, Floyd and Brown, the one thing they have in common is the guy under center. A consistent option as an every week starter or an incredible bye week replacement, if he's available. (249yds, 3TD, 1int, week 9 @DAL) - 61% owned
- Ryan Tannehill was rumored to be close to losing his job in Miami earlier in the year. Of course that was just nonsense, and he's been proving his worth in spades over the past few games. He's not putting up gaudy numbers but he's improved on his turnovers and continues to work on chemistry with his receivers. What's really put him on the radar this year though (he's the #11 QB overall right now in standard scoring leagues), are the rushing yards that he's putting in. Over the past 5 games he's averaged 40+ yards on the ground.. bonus! (288yds, 3TD, 4car for 47yds) - 57% owned
Palmer and Tannehill both already owned in your league? Kyle Orton(10% owned) is a great pickup that has been consistently good over the past few weeks, throwing over 230 yards and scoring at least 2 TD's per game in weeks 6-8. I hesitate to pick him up and play him over the next two weeks since he goes up against the Chiefs and Dolphins, both teams that don't allow a lot of fantasy points to opposing QB's but his match-up in week against the Jets' poor passing defense is a tasty one.
- Mark Sanchez was blamed for a lot of things in New York during his time with the Jets, but he is still a young quarterback that has a lot of upside. It's just as easy to blame the lack of receiving talent, coaching and playcalling during his time as a Jet. Anyway, now Sanchez is taking over the reins of a potent Philadelphia Eagles offense and he showed quite a spark coming off the bench to take over for Foles on Sunday. Since Foles will be out almost indefinitely with a broken collarbone, Sanchez is a legitimate weekly starting option with QB1 upside. (202yds, 2TD, week 9 @HOU) - 4% owned
- Zach Mettenberger was on bye in week 9 but really impressed in his debut in week 8 against the Texans. There are a few good weapons on the Titans (Kendall Wright, Justin Hunter, Delanie Walker) for Mett to throw to and we should only see him get more comfortable as the year progresses. He does have a bad match-up in week 10 against a surely angry Ravens team though, so Mettenberger remains a wait-and-see in most leagues, only holding value in 2QB leagues as an upside bye replacement or lower-end QB2. (299yds, 2TD, 1int, week 8 vs. HOU) - 2% owned
- Martavis Bryant will score a TD in almost every game from here on out. Roethlisberger is absolutely on fire, the Steelers' passing offense is clicking and Bryant is the big redzone receiving target that Big Ben hasn't had since Plaxico Burress. Still playing less than half of the game's snaps on average, Bryant is a little dependent on the success of the offense but regardless he should get at least a few good-lucking targets in each game going forward. (3rec for 44yds, 2TD, week 9 vs. BAL) - 42% owned
- Mike Evans has appeared to struggle from afar, but a lot of that is just the usual rookie jitters paired with poor play in general from Tampa Bay QB's and being thrust into an important role right out of college. Talk about trending up, over the last 4 games that he has played he is averaging about 5 receptions for 80 yards and a TD. Evans is a guy that you must own for the rest of the season and 39% of leagues still haven't figured that out. (7rec for 124yds, 2TD week 9 @CLE) - 61% owned
- Kenny Britt has shown flashes throughout his career, but never seems to be able to put it all together for a long stretch of time. Who cares though, right? Fantasy Football is all about match-up play, especially going into these tough bye weeks, and the season-ending injury to Brian Quick has propelled Britt to an immediate increase in relevance. In week 10, Britt goes up against a Cardinals team that has allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to WRs this season. If stars actually aligned for specific events, they may be moving around up there right now. (2rec for 32yds, 1TD week 9 @SF) - 9% owned
- Josh Gordon's story is very familiar to everyone by now, but consider this to be just one more reminder to pick him up in your league if he is available. Gordon comes off of suspension in week 12 against the Falcons and it's almost likely that playing Gordon in your playoff run could be the difference that your team needs down the stretch. Let's not worry about his stats.. the guy is an idiot - but he's an all-pro idiot. 65% owned
Flip a coin:
Allen Robinson(41% owned) and Allen Hurns(15% owned) are toss-ups every week for the touchdown dance.. but Robinson is actually a decent PPR start on the regular. Davante Adams(13% owned) has secured the WR3 job in Green Bay and therefore is deserving of a FLEX spot each week in most leagues. Jarvis Landry(8% owned) is a secret Dolphin pick that may pay off, as he's been getting 4 or 5 receptions per game and has scored 2 TDs in the last 4.
- Terrance West started the year off strong, rushing for 100 yards against PIT in week 1. His decline after that was a result of being outplayed by fellow rookie Isaiah Crowell. The problem here isn't whether Crowell or West can be productive, but rather that the RBs in Cleveland are one of these 3-headed committees that we've been seeing lately in the NFL. The Browns take on the Bengals in Week 10, who have given up the 6th most fantasy points to RBs so far this season. (15car for 48yds, 1rec for 2yds, 1TD week 9 vs. TB) - 24% owned
- Alfred Blue has played snaps in every game so far this season, and the Texans have no problem going to him as their lead back when Foster goes down or needs to be spelled. Some beat reporters in Houston believe that Grimes may be a better talent, but the Texans have already demonstrated who will take the role over. Since Foster may be out for a week or two following the Texans' bye week, Blue is a speculative add that could provide FLEX quality fantasy production but the latest news is that Foster may be okay to jump back into the #1 role come week 11. (13car for 78yds week 3 @NYG when Foster was injured) - 12% owned
- Ryan Mathews looks to resume his lead back role when he comes back after the Chargers' bye this week (latest news, speculative information) even though Branden Oliver has flashed with some brilliant plays over the past several weeks. It's much more likely for Oliver that he will take the Danny Woodhead / Darren Sproles type role for the rest of the year which bodes well for Mathews as the Chargers get back on their feet against Oakland's porous rushing defense in week 11. 67% owned
- Bobby Rainey should now be considered the lead back on Tampa Bay. Take this with a grain of salt, however, since Rainey has had some ball control issues this year and was not given a heavy workload toward the end of the game in week 9 even though it was winable. Still, although Charles Sims has upside, he's an untested asset and could easily falter whch would leave Rainey with the uncontested job for the rest of the season.. unless they sign Ray Rice. :P (19car for 87yds, 1rec for 34yds week 9 @CLE) - 46% owned
- Charles Sims was picked up by hosts of fantasy team managers hoping for a miracle to solve their bye week and injury woes. Unfortunately Sims - who was just coming off of IR last week - was inactive for the game, but it looks like he'll be 100% for week 10's match-up against the Falcons. Yes, that's the Falcons - the team currently giving up the most fantasy points to RBs each week. My thoughts are that Sims will impress and eventually get the #1 job in Tampa Bay this season, but that is still quite a gamble. 26% owned
- Jeremy Hill was one heck of a play last week and now that it looks like Giovani Bernard might be sidelined for a few games, he is an every week starter on your team. He is owned in 75% of leagues though, so this is a sidenote for those of you that may still see him as available.
- Denard Robinson used to be on this list, but he is now over 70% owned and therefore past the threshold of a possible pickup in leagues populated with mildly intelligent people. Now, if you're not in one of those leagues.. best of luck with life, and go grab him up ASAP!
- Adrian Peterson is a must add this week if you have the space, because he was able to plead the child abuse charges against him down to a misdemeanor. Since he has already been out for 8 games, the NFL may allow him back to play as early as next week. We'll see how the Vikings will use him now that they have been going to the tandem of Asiata and McKinnon each week, but one would think that AP's talent would make them switch back to him immediately as the lead back.
Deeper Leagues: Tre Mason(38% owned) could be great but I don't see him breaking free of the committee approach in St. Loiuis, Anthony Dixon(18% owned) and Bryce Brown(22% owned) are just not good enough to be owned in 10-12 team leagues, Chris Polk(1% owned) has some value as LeSean McCoy's backup, but not enough to be rostered in 10-12 team leagues.
- Owen Daniels has been a consistent TE most weeks, but in the last two has averaged 6 receptions and 50 yards or more in each game. He's not going to be amazing, and only has 3 TDs so far this season, but TEs are few and far between so far once you get past the top several and the Ravens play the Titans in week 10, giving up about 9.5 fantasy points per match-up. (5rec for 46yds, 1TD week 9 vs. SD) - 31% owned
- Mychal Rivera served as a capable TE last year and is doing the same this year for the Raiders. On track for the same kind of season (500 yards, 4 or 5 TDs), he seems like someone to avoid but his targets and redzone looks have been picking up in the past two games and Derek Carr loves him as a dumpoff target. Rivera is immediately a playable PPR TE with upside. (8rec for 38yds, 2TD week 9 @SEA) - 3% owned
- Mark Sanchez played well on Monday Night Football, letting us all know that he's an upside QB1 for the rest of the year. He ended up with 332 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions which are respectable numbers for any QB.. much less the inimitable butt fumblers. Sanchez will try as hard as he can over the next few weeks to put his past with the Jets behind him and take advantage of the fast-paced offense he finds himself in control of in Philadelphia. (45% owned)
- Teddy Bridgewater has yet to throw more than 1 TD pass in a game this year, but is slowly gaining composure in the pocket and chemistry with his teammates. Still, he has been averaging about 250 yards and a TD with 0 interceptions over the past two games and is up against the Redskins this week, who have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to QBs so far this season. If there is any week to play Bridgewater as a fill-in or in a 2 QB league, it's this week. (7% owned)
- Drew Stanton will be taking over for Carson Palmer after it was confirmed that Palmer tore his ACL and will be out for the rest of the season. Stanton has been a more than capable backup for several teams and should be able to excel in Bruce Arian's offense. Unfortunately his upside is not comparable to what Palmer's was, but he should be a serviceable QB2 all season for fantasy teams. (2% owned)
- Andrew Hawkins was picking up steam when he was injured recently but looks to get back on track this week against the hapless Tampa Bay Buccaneers. So far this season they have given up the most fantasy points to WRs and - since Cleveland has been playing well - that doesn't look to change anytime soon. If Hawkins suits up this week, he could be a beast - especially in PPR leagues. His value long-term may be nice as well since Gordon's heralded comeback will take some much-needed pressure from Hawkins. (38% owned)
- Jordan Matthews caught 2 TDs on Monday Night Football on 7 receptions for 138 yards. Great numbers, Jordan. As rookies go, the class this year has been terrific to watch. While Matthews may have had some unproductive games earlier in the year, he did average about 5 receptions per game so far this season including another 2 TD performance in week 3 against the Redskins. Without a doubt, Sanchez has been comfortable targeting Matthews early and often and as long as they're winning games, why would that change? (28% owned)
- Jarvis Landry was my secret dolphin pick last week, and he performed well by PPR standards (7rec for 53 yds). Since he has only scored 2 TDs all season and it doesn't look like that will be changing anytime soon, Landry is solely a PPR WR3/4.. but he is a good bet to score you 10 points each week and should be owned in all PPR leagues as a bye week replacement for this reason. (11% owned)
- John Brown is the high-risk upsideplayer that you mayor may not have been looking for. 5rec for 119yds and a TD in week 8 and 5rec for 73yds and a TD in week 10 tells us that he can compete out there with the best of them, but Arizona's confounding love of spreading the ball around can sometimes stymie the best of us. Kenny Stills? Justin Hunter? Yeah, Brown is right up that alley and should continue to perform in that regard. Roll the dice if you don't have enough other good options. (4% owned)
- C.J. Anderson was the primary ball-carrier for the Broncos on Sunday and as we know, whoever holds that position has all of the opportunities in the world for fantasy production on a week-to-week basis. Since Hillman is out for at least two weeks, and Ball was not exactly performing at a high level even when he was healthy, Anderson may well get the chance to showcase his talents again in week 11 against the Rams. They are a tough defense, especially lately, but the Broncos (and C.J. Anderson) don't care. (11% owned)
- Theo Riddick is a name that I've heard called a lot this season, especially when I'm playing either Joique Bell or Reggie Bush in my fantasy lineup. We talk a lot about 3-headed (or more) RBBC's and how frustrating they can be on a weekly basis for fantasy owners.. but I'm not sure this is going to be one of them. It looks to me like Bell has been under-performing and Bush has has lingering issues going into the last half of the regular season that may well continue. All of this means that Riddick will - at least for a short time - be the recipient of a lot of work in the backfield. My money is on 5+ reception for 50+ yards and a TD in week 11 even against a stingy Cardinals' defense. (6% owned)
Do yourself a favor, and don't mess around with Anthony (Boobie) Dixon or Bryce Brown in the coming weeks. Fred Jackson will eventually feel better, but even until then they will all be out there on the field. Listen, if you have the opportunity to avoid frustration please take it. That's like boarding a boat that has a 33% chance to capsize. If you choose not to take my advice, bring a life raft.. or at least a stiff drink.
- Kyle Rudolph has been injured for quite a while, but a little birdie told me that he'll be back soon. The Vikings have admittedly struggled a little bit without the talents of Rudolph and are surely eager to have those extra receptions and red-zone targets back in the offense. He's not a pick up to play against the Bears specifically.. more like a playoff-run stash, but if he does play on Sunday I would start him without question. (32% owned)
- Mychal Rivera jumped for 3% to 34% owned this week, and for good reason. As Derek Carr's new toy in the Raiders' get-it-out-quick offense, Rivera has been racking up the receptions in the past three weeks, averaging 7 a game along with a TD. As long as these two are on the same team, Rivera is a low-end top 10 TE for me each week. Grab him before he's gone. (34% owned)
I'd be remiss if I neglected to mention Austin Seferian-Jenkins, who had a great game in week 10 with 5rec for 30yds and a TD. The Bucs have been using him all year fairly sparingly but that will likely change with McCown taking back the reigns.. we can probably count on a few more receptions per game as the dump-off target with upside. This huge target will always be a threat in the red-zone as well and is a good bye week fill-in if your other options are exhausted.