Shawn Foss
I'm a college and professional sports nut from the Chicago area. Follow me on Twitter @Shawn_Foss
August
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s been a long, arduous offseason, but we’re finally almost back to regular season football. Some of you may have already drafted your teams for 2019, but if you haven’t I’ve got some info that may help you decide which rookies to target. The rookies are always tricky to figure out. We’ve got no track record to go off of, and you wind up reading the tea leaves on coachspeak and preseason snaps to try and figure out what their roles will look like. I’m here to provide a little bit more detail on the relevant rookies for you.
These won’t be typical rookie rankings. Instead, I’m going to give you one interesting fact about each rookie and provide a little context to what it means for this season. Obviously stats can be misleading and some of these facts are going to help paint the picture I see for these guys. You should do some research of your own on them…I just want to provide some additional details you may not be considering.
I’ll separate the players by their expected roles for 2019. First we’ll look at guys who are slated to start right away, then guys who should be heavily involved rotational players or take a starting job early in the season, then guys who are a little deeper into the rotation or could win a job later in the year, and finally we’ll look at a couple of handcuffs/fliers that could move into a decent role if the starter gets hurt or falters badly. Let’s dive in…
Projected Starters:
QB Kyler Murray, ARI
Fact: In Kliff Kingsbury’s career as a college head coach and offensive coordinator, his teams finished with average ranks of 16th in points per game, 9th in offensive plays per game, and 7th in pass attempts per game nationally.
Kyler has been one of the more polarizing players in the fantasy community this offseason. A lot of fantasy analysts have already anointed him a fantasy stud before he’s played his first regular season game. These rankings are a big part of why he’s getting that hype. Kliff’s offenses go at a fast tempo, they throw the ball a ton, and they score a lot of points. We’ve seen new innovative offenses that get borrowed from college have big success early – from the Wildcat to Chip Kelly and the Read-Option to the RPOs that have been all the rage recently. Is the Air Raid the next wave? If it is, we’re probably all too low on Murry as a fantasy QB, especially when you factor in his ability to run the ball. If you believe the Air Raid will work in the NFL, you should reach above ADP to snag Kyler in your drafts.
RB Josh Jacobs, OAK
Fact: As a head coach, Jon Gruden’s offenses have targeted the running back position an average of 147 times per season (126 in 2018).
Jacobs was an efficient receiver at Alabama when he got the chance, averaging nearly 12 yards per catch in his college career. He was drafted in the first round, which means the Raiders plan to use him a bunch this year. Jalen Richard was targeted 81 times last year. I’d expect Jacobs to take a big chunk of those targets from him. If the passing game work is there, Jacobs has a great chance to finish as an RB2 even if the Raiders struggle to run the ball efficiently.
RB David Montgomery, CHI
Fact: Since Pro Football Focus started tracking the stat in 2014, Montgomery has the two highest single-season totals of forced missed tackles (109 & 102).
Montgomery’s receiving ability is the biggest reason the Bears preferred him to Jordan Howard, but it’s his elusiveness that is going to keep him ahead of Mike Davis on the depth chart and in line to be the Bears’ lead back. Tarik Cohen will still have a prominent role in the offense, but Montgomery should be a borderline RB2 in what projects to be a dangerous offense.
RB Miles Sanders, PHI
Fact: In his 3 seasons as head coach, Doug Pederson’s leading rusher has averaged 11.7 targets in the passing game per year.
Pederson has seemingly preferred defined roles for his running backs. He’s had a different leading rusher each year in Philly – Ryan Mathews, LeGarrette Blount, and Josh Adams, and all 3 have been basically a zero in the passing game. Miles Sanders may be the guy that changes that, but Jordan Howard seems to be an ideal fit for the early down grinder role that Pederson has used. Sanders athleticism is off the charts, and he has a high ceiling for fantasy, but the risk of Jordan Howard having a bigger role than expected has me ranking Sanders behind Jacobs and Montgomery.
WR DK Metcalf, SEA
Fact: In 2018, Russell Wilson ranked 2nd in the NFL in completion % on passes that traveled more than 20 yards in the air (46.7%) and ranked 4th in attempts that traveled that far (4.7 per game).
Metcalf was a deep ball specialist at Ole Miss last season before getting hurt. He averaged 21.9 yards per catch, ranking 4th in the NCAA. He has a size-speed combination that is reminiscent of Calvin Johnson and seems like a great fit in the Seattle offense. The lack of passing volume caps Metcalf’s upside, but he’s a great late flier in non-PPR formats and he’s a guy you should be targeting in best ball formats.
WR Miles Boykin, BAL
Fact: Former Ravens John Brown and Michael Crabtree combined for 54 targets in the 7 games that Lamar Jackson started (7.7 per game).
That 7.7 targets per game would be great if they were all going to go to Boykin, but the Ravens also drafted Marquise Brown as the first WR off the board. Boykin has been getting a lot of hype this preseason and has played his way into a starting role, but unless the offense sees a substantial increase in passing volume he won’t be much more than bye week filler in deeper leagues. I actually like Boykin to lead the Ravens in receiving yards this year, but that probably makes him a WR4 for your fantasy team.
TE TJ Hockenson, DET
Fact: In the last 23 years, only 8 rookie tight ends have scored 82 or more fantasy points (non-PPR). Evan Engram finished as the TE13 with 81 points last year.
It’s pretty much standard knowledge for fantasy players that you should fade rookie tight ends in redraft leagues in most cases. Hockenson isn’t an exception to this. The Lions want to be a run-first football team and drafted Hock as much for his blocking ability as for what he can do as a receiver. If you’re drafting him as a top-12 TE, you’re making a mistake.
Heavy Rotational Players:
QB Dwayne Haskins, WAS
Fact: 2018 was the first time that Washington ranked lower than 8th in the NFL in completion % with Jay Gruden as head coach, and Haskins ranked 4th in the NCAA with a 70% completion percentage in 2018.
The motley crew of Alex Smith, Colt McCoy, and Josh Johnson managed just a 61.1% completion percentage last year, easily the worst team mark under Gruden. Case Keenum has only had a higher completion % than that twice in his career. Haskins’ accuracy should have him surpassing Keenum for the starting job sooner rather than later. He’s not worth considering in a 1-QB league, but could be worth a late flier in superflex and 2-QB formats.
RB Justice Hill, BAL
Fact: After Lamar Jackson took over as the starting QB, Baltimore’s running back group averaged 5.4 yards per carry. For the full season, the Carolina Panthers had the best yards per carry average in the NFL at 5.1.
The Ravens went out and spent a pretty penny on Mark Ingram in free agency, but Hill has been impressive in preseason action. It seems that he’ll have no trouble beating out Gus Edwards and Kenneth Dixon for the #2 running back job. That’s a role that Dixon saw 9.4 carries per game in over the final 5 weeks of 2018. If Hill has a similar workload this year, he’ll be a viable flex option most weeks, and there’s a chance he steals even more work from Ingram as the season goes on.
RB Tony Pollard, DAL
Fact: Pollard had more catches in his college career at Memphis (104) than any other notable rookie running back in this class.
The Zeke holdout makes it very possible that Pollard opens the season as the starter in Dallas. He’s been working exclusively with the ones in camp. He’ll be a good starting option on your fantasy squad in Elliott’s holdout carries over into the regular season. If Zeke does return, there should still be a role for Pollard as a change of pace back and receiver out of the backfield. Zeke was targeted 95 times last year, but averaged just 7.4 yards per catch. The Cowboys may want to be more efficient with those passes. Pollard should be drafted in just about all fantasy leagues.
RB Devin Singletary, BUF
Fact: According to PlayerProfiler.com, Singletary’s speed score is in the 16th percentile, his agility score is in the 18th percentile, his bench press reps were in the 13th percentile, and his SPARQ-x score was in the 13th percentile.
Singletary put up big numbers at Florida Atlantic, but the athletes he’ll be facing off with in the NFL are on a different level than what he faced in Conference USA. The big question is can he continue to get by with such below average athleticism? The Bills should be run-heavy again as an offense, but I’m less than eager to buy the hype that Singletary is going to overtake LeSean McCoy for the starting job. If McCoy is a surprise camp cut, Singletary should be drafted as an RB3, but he’s not a guy I’d be excited to draft.
RB Darwin Thompson, KC
Fact: Kareem Hunt averaged 14.5 yards per reception before being released in 2018. Damien Williams averaged 7.0 yards per reception. Darwin Thompson averaged 15.3 yards per reception in 2018 at Utah State.
Damien Williams has been talked up as the clear lead back in Kansas City, and he certainly played at a high level down the stretch to earn that job, but it’s not far-fetched to believe Thompson can be a better receiver out of the backfield than Dame. Williams was never more than ‘just a guy’ before his stretch run last year, and Thompson has looked fantastic in the preseason. I expect Thompson to forge a role early in the season and should be a guy you target in drafts. There will be plenty of fantasy points to go around in Kansas City.
WR N’Keal Harry, NE
Fact: The New England Patriots had 164 passing targets in the 2018 season that went to players who are no longer on the team.
The return of Josh Gordon has put a bit of a damper on Harry’s outlook and is slowly dropping his ADP, but I wouldn’t write him off completely. The Patriots depth chart is largely unsettled after Edelman and Gordon, and Harry’s high draft capital should help give him a leg up on Phillip Dorsett and fellow newcomers Maurice Harris and Jakobi Meyers. There has been a lot written about Harry’s struggles to get separation, but it’s not for a lack of athleticism. His SPARQ-x score was in the 98th percentile. You shouldn’t be drafting Harry as a starter, but he certainly has the upside to get there and should come at a steep discount. I know we’re all rooting for Josh Gordon, but he’s played in just 22 games in the past 5 years.
WR Marquise Brown, BAL
Fact: According to a 2016 study, the average recovery time from a Lisfranc surgery for an NFL player is 11 months. Marquise Brown had Lisfranc surgery in January.
The Ravens have said they expect him to be ready to play this year, but reports out of camp are that he has a ways to go to be ready for game action. I’ll believe he plays in week 1 when I see it. Brown is a player that wins with his speed, and the Lisfranc injury is one that is tough to come back from at full strength in year one. If his speed is affected at all, he’s likely to struggle to make a big impact this year, or at least in the early part of the year.
WR AJ Brown, TEN
Fact: The Titans ranked 25th in the NFL in percentage of plays run from 11 personnel (3 WRs, 1 RB, 1 TE) in 2018 at 57.1%.
No one seems quite sure of what kind of scheme new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith will run in Tennessee, but most of the talk from the team has hyped Derrick Henry as the guy they want to build around. That makes me believe they aren’t going to be increasing this ranking much if at all. AJ Brown seems locked in as a starter in 3-WR sets. He came back from missing time with injury to immediately run with the 1’s in the Titans’ most recent preseason game. The question is if he is going to play ahead of Adam Humphries in 2-WR sets. If not, I’m not sure I see him being all that useful in fantasy as a rookie. The Titans offense just hasn’t been productive enough with Mariota to count on a guy playing less than 60% of the snaps to be a fantasy factor.
WR Parris Campbell, IND
Fact: In his 5 years as an offensive coordinator and head coach, Frank Reich’s primary slot receiver has averaged 6.11 targets per game.
Campbell is trying to work his way back from a training camp hamstring issue, but there is a chance for a big role right away in a potent offense – the Colts finished 5th in scoring and 5th in passing yards in 2018. 6.11 targets per game would work out to about 98 for the season. 38 wide receivers had 98 or more targets last season, and Campbell is currently being drafted as the WR60. I’m not saying you should move Campbell into your top 40 receivers, but it would be wise for you to be willing to reach a bit above WR60 for him, and then to also draft Andrew Luck name your fantasy team ‘An American Werewolf and Parris’.
WR Deebo Samuel, SF
Fact: Deebo averaged 9.5 yards after the catch per reception last year at South Carolina. The 49ers ranked 3rd in the NFL in total yards after the catch in 2018.
A lot of teams have done a great job this draft season of identifying guys who are great fits in their offensive scheme, and Deebo is a prime example of that. Kyle Shanahan’s passing attack consistently gets receivers the ball with the opportunity for extra yardage after the catch, and Deebo thrived at South Carolina with the ball in his hands. He should have a role right away in San Francisco and it isn’t impossible that he winds up the eventual WR1 there rather than Dante Pettis.
WR Andy Isabella, ARI
Fact: In Kliff Kingsbury’s 9 years as a college head coach and offensive coordinator wide receivers under 6’ tall posted 8 seasons of 800+ yards, and 4 of them were over 1,000 yards.
Isabella stands just 5’9”, but that hasn’t typically been a problem for receivers playing for Kingsbury. 5’11” Keke Coutee posted 93-1,429-10 as a junior in 2017. 5’7” Jakeem Grant went 90-1,268-10 as a senior in 2015. Isabella played in a spread system at UMass and put those numbers to shame as a senior, tallying a 102-1,698-13 line in 2018. There is a ton of opportunity available in Arizona with Hakeem Butler likely to miss most or all of the season. Isabella should be on your radar as a late-round target.
WR KeeSean Johnson, ARI
Fact: Johnson ran a 4.6 second 40-yard dash at the NFL combine, and posted the worst vertical jump of any receiver there (30”).
Despite not being drafted until the 6th round last spring, there has been a lot of noise about Johnson possibly starting in 3-WR sets to open the year in the desert. That noise will get even louder with Hakeem Butler going down. The combine numbers are the biggest reason for his draft slide. They’re also the reason I’m a bit dubious of the hype surrounding him in camp, but he was very productive last year (95-1,340-8) and the air raid scheme doesn’t typically win with jump ball contested catches, so the vertical jump might not be a big problem for him. I’d prefer Isabella to Johnson, but if Johnson earns a starting role there is value here.
TE Noah Fant, DEN
Fact: 21.1% of Joe Flacco’s career pass attempts have targeted a tight end.
As of today, the projected starting tight end for the Broncos is Jeff Heuerman, who set a career high with 48 targets in 2018. Jake Butt is recovering from a torn ACL, and Matt LaCosse is gone. It’s tough to be certain what kind of offense new OC Rich Scangarello will run in Denver, but he comes from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree. Shanahan’s offenses have ranked in the top-10 in pass attempts in 7 of his 11 seasons. If the Broncos are just at league average in pass attempts (550 last year), that would mean 115 or so targets for tight ends. Fant seems a good bet for 50+ targets even if he doesn’t overtake Heuerman. He’s an intriguing dart throw as a TE2 in deeper leagues.
Deeper Rotational Players:
RB Darrell Henderson, LAR
Fact: Through 2 preseason games, Malcolm Brown has played exactly zero snaps as the Rams have sat their starters.
With the fantasy community now believing that Todd Gurley’s knee is basically held together by tape and rubber bands, Darrell Henderson has been one of the hottest names of the offseason. It would make logical sense for the Rams to employ Gurley and Henderson in tandem like the Saints did with Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. Even today there are reports from a local beat writer that he expects Henderson to see 9-12 touches per game. No one seems to be talking about Malcolm Brown. The Rams matched a multi-year offer sheet that Brown signed with the Lions to keep him and have held him out of preseason games along with the rest of their starters. If he cuts into Henderson’s expected workload at all, it makes Henderson extremely overpriced at his current ADP. He’s one player I’m steering clear of this season.
RB Alexander Mattison, MIN
Fact: In games that Dalvin Cook played in 2018, Latavius Murray averaged 6.8 carries per game.
Mattison won’t be more than a change of pace back so long as Cook is healthy this year. There is some question about that as Dalvin has played just 15 of a possible 32 games in his career so far, and Mattison has RB2 upside if something happens to Cook, but he shouldn’t be counted on to produce with Dalvin healthy.
WR Mecole Hardman, KC
Fact: Eight of Hardman’s 40 touches on offense in 2018 resulted in gains of 30 or more yards. The Chiefs led the NFL in pass plays of 20+ yards and ranked 3rd in pass plays of 40+ yards.
With the return of Tyreek Hill, the Chiefs probably have too many mouths to feed for Hardman to really break through in 2018, but he’s an explosive playmaker that lands in an offense that knows how to use them. Hardman will be a fantastic lottery ticket in best ball drafts, and a good late upside pick in deeper leagues. He also led the NCAA with 20.1 yards per punt return in 2018, so he will likely factor in the return game as well. Be aware of that if you are in a league that gives bonus points for return yards.
WR Terry McLaurin, WAS
Fact: With Kirk Cousins at QB in 2015-17, Washington ranked in the top 5 in the league each year in 20+ yard pass plays. Case Keenum ranked 11th in the NFL in 20+ yard passes in 2018.
McLaurin was a downfield burner in college, averaging 20 yards per catch in 2018. Case Keenum might not be a great signal caller, but he is more willing to push the ball downfield than anyone Washington trotted out at QB last season, and if/when he loses the job to Dwayne Haskins, McLaurin gets to play with his college QB again. McLaurin’s most useful place in fantasy this year will be as a late round best ball target. I don’t think the Washington offense will be consistent enough to make him a weekly option.
WR Kelvin Harmon, WAS
Fact: The Redskins played in 11 personnel (3 WR, 1 RB, 1 TE) on 71.9% of their offensive snaps last season, 5th-highest in the NFL. Trey Quinn, Paul Richardson, and Josh Doctson have combined to miss 54 games in their 8 professional seasons (Quinn 13 in 1 year, Richardson 26 in 5 years, Doctson 15 in 3 years).
Washington has already made it clear that Trey Quinn is locked in as the starting slot receiver this year, but Richardson and Doctson aren’t guaranteed anything, and no one in that trio has a great track record of staying on the field. McLaurin will probably get the first crack at breaking the WR rotation, but Harmon’s track record of production at NC State was impressive. He topped 1,000 yards in each of the last 2 seasons but plummeted in the draft due to poor testing at the combine. Harmon has already showcased sure hands and aggressive mentality when the ball is in the air this preseason. Those traits should serve him well at the NFL level, especially playing with a rookie QB. Harmon is a waiver wire option to keep an eye on in PPR leagues.
WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI
Fact: Alshon Jeffery has missed 14 games in the past 4 years, and in his 2 seasons in Philadelphia he’s been targeted in the red zone 28 times (15 of them inside the 10-yard line).
JJAW has been impressing in camp, and he’ll likely push for some playing time this year even if everyone is healthy, but there are so many weapons in Philly it’ll be tough for him to break through. His real value would come if anything happened to Alshon. Arcega-Whiteside is a big target who was a red zone maven at Stanford, scoring on more than 20% of his career catches in college. He’d be a popular target for Wentz in the red zone if Alshon were out, and he is likely to be Alshon’s eventual replacement. Jeffery is a free agent after the season.
WR Preston Williams, MIA
Fact: Devante Parker has never finished higher than the PPR WR51 in his 4 NFL seasons, and that finish occurred in 2016.
Kenny Stills is locked in as the team’s WR1, and it will likely be Jakeem Grant or Albert Wilson starting in the slot in Miami. That means Williams’ path to playing time goes through Devante Parker (barring injury). Parker has been hyped as a breakthrough candidate each and every offseason of his career, but his production has made him look more like a poor man’s Rueben Randle. Williams was a blue-chip recruit out of high school who got in trouble for a domestic incident while at Tennessee. He then transferred to Colorado State and posted 96-1,345-14 in his only season there. His checkered past is what caused him to go undrafted, but if he can stay out of trouble he’s got a bright future. If he’s still sitting there in the late rounds of your draft you should pick him up.
TE Irv Smith Jr., MIN
Fact: Smith’s 710 receiving yards were the highest single-season total by an Alabama tight end since Ozzie Newsome in 1977 (804 yards).
That’s right…Smith had a more productive season last year as a receiver than OJ Howard ever did at Bama. He’s not as freakish of an athlete as Howard, but the Vikings have already talked about using more 2-tight end sets this year to get him on the field with Kyle Rudolph. I don’t believe there will be a ton of fantasy value for Smith as a rookie, but this is a guy you should be trying to acquire in-season in dynasty leagues if his owner gets impatient with the lack of starter production this year. If he continues to impress, the Vikings will clear the way for him to start sooner than later despite the extension they handed out to Kyle Rudolph.
Handcuffs and Late Draft Fliers:
QB Daniel Jones, NYG
Fact: Ben McAdoo coached exactly zero games for the Giants after starting Geno Smith over Eli Manning in week 13, 2017.
It’ll be hard to keep Jones off the field all year if the Giants end up playing as poorly as most people expect them to, but it’s safe to assume Pat Shurmur won’t make the switch at QB without the blessing of owner John Mara. Mara was quoted earlier this preseason saying “Eli starting all 16 games would be ideal.” When Shurmur was asked about whether there is a QB competition, his reply was “Well, you heard it from the owner.” Jones has looked decent in the preseason, but it seems unlikely he’ll play any time soon.
RB Damien Harris, NE
Fact: Harris tallied 226 more carries in his Alabama career than teammate Josh Jacobs did, averaged a half yard more per carry than Jacobs (6.4-5.9) and was drafted 63 picks after Jacobs in the NFL draft.
That stat isn’t a knock on Jacobs, it’s praise for Harris. Damien is an impressive runner who will have a ton of value if anything happens to Sony Michel. Sony did miss 3 games as a rookie with knee issues, and I’d expect Harris to slot right into that role if those issues came back this year. Michel found the end zone 12 times in 16 games last year including the postseason.
TE Jace Sternberger, GB
Fact: Tight ends on the Packers not named Jimmy Graham totaled 35 targets in 2018.
There just isn’t going to be much value for the backup tight end in this offense. Sternberger would become an appealing waiver target if anything happened to Graham. He averaged better than 17 yards per catch last year at Texas A&M and could potentially make magic with Aaron Rodgers if he got moved into a starting role, but I’d be surprised if he reached 40 targets on the year so long as Graham is healthy.
That’s all I’ve got for now. Hopefully this info helps you fine tune your draft strategy when it comes to the rookie crop. Feel free to reach out on twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you want to yell at me about anything posted above or have any questions about rookies I didn’t include. I’ll be back in a couple weeks to give some insights into the week 1 rookie matchups, so be sure to come back and check it out. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
December
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It's been a roller coaster ride of a season, but we've finally arrived at championship week. Week 15 was loaded with fantasy carnage as several weekly studs turned into duds with the season on the line. Saquon Barkley, Adam Thielen and Keenan Allen are just a few of the let downs that had to be overcome. Hopefully you were able to avoid those pitfalls and made your way to the league championship game. The decisions don't get any easier this week with a lot of injury uncertainty and so few players feeling like sure things right now. I'm here to help, at least as it pertains to your rookies. Keep in mind that any players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order I would play them this week. Let's dive into the matchups...
Rookies to Start:
RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 16: @Ind.): I'm sure most of you know better than to read too much into Barkley's worst game of the season last week...but if you're nervous about it I have some reassuring numbers. The Titans he faced last week have allowed the fewest RB fantasy points per game this season (all rankings and point totals in PPR format). The Colts are just a middling RB defense, and they've been especially vulnerable to receiving backs like Saquon. Only Atlanta has allowed more RB catches than the 100 that Indy has given up, and the Colts have also coughed up the 6th-most receiving yards to the position. Saquon should get back on track and should be started with confidence in all formats.
RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 16: vs. Cin.): Chubb should be one of the best RB plays of the week. He managed to run for 100 yards in a much tougher matchup last week. The Bengals rank just 26th in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA stat, and they allow the 2nd-most RB points per game. Game script should also be in Chubb's favor with the Browns an 8.5-point favorite. Chubb should carry it a ton this week and is an obvious RB1 play this week.
RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 16: @Oak.): Lindsay has been in a bit of a funk since Emmanuel Sanders was lost for the season and defenses have been able to focus on stopping him, but I think he has a great chance to break out of that funk this week. The Raiders rank 27th in run defense DVOA and have given up the 2nd-most rushing yards to opposing RBs. Denver is a 3-point road favorite and should at least be able to keep the game script neutral or positive all day. The defense should still be keyed in on Lindsay, but he's still a solid RB2 play this week.
RB Jaylen Samuels, PIT (Wk. 16: @NO): It looks like James Conner will be out again, and the Steelers might also be missing JuJu Smith-Schuster as well. Samuels should be a focal point of the offense even in a less than ideal matchup. The Saints allow the 4th-fewest RB points per game, but also rank just 30th in pass defense DVOA on throws to running backs. Samuels should be able to do enough as a receiver to offset any struggles he has on the ground. He's had 12 catches in the past 3 weeks, and managed to be the RB14 last week without scoring a TD. He should be a solid RB2 and a solid bet to find the end zone in a game with the 2nd-highest over/under of the week (53).
RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 16: vs. Buf.): Like Phillip Lindsay, Michel has been in a bit of a funk. He hasn't reached 65 yards rushing or found the end zone in the past 3 weeks, and has just one catch to go along with the rushing production. The Bills aren't a pushover matchup (9th in run defense DVOA), but I still like Michel's chances to have a strong performance. The Pats are a 2-touchdown favorite, and the Bills have allowed the 10th-most RB points per game. The 15 RB rushing scores they've allowed are tied for the 2nd-most in the league. This sets up as more of a Michel week than James White week.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 16: vs. Cin.): The production has been a bit light for Mayfield over the past few weeks, but this is a good spot for him to get back on track. The Bengals have been playing improved pass defense since the return of slot corner Darqueze Dennard, but they still allow the most QB points per game in the league. They've been giving up 15.6 QB points per game in the 5 games since Dennard returned after allowing 23.4 per game prior to that, but it isn't all from better defensive play. The bigger concern for Mayfield is game script. The Bengals without Andy Dalton have struggled to stay competitive most weeks, and opponents haven't had to throw. They've faced fewer than 30 pass attempts 6 times all year, and 4 of them are in the past 5 games. That risk that the Browns stop throwing is what keeps me from saying Mayfield is a sure start. He's more of a low-end QB1 for me this week.
QB Lamar Jackson, BAL (Wk. 16: @LAC): The Chargers are a tough matchup, but Lamar's running ability has given him a safe weekly floor. He's run for at least 67 yards in each of his starts, and his rushing floor is much safer than Josh Allen's since much of it comes on designed runs rather than scrambles. The Chargers rank an uninspiring 18th in run defense DVOA, and Lamar has finished between the QB9 and QB14 in every start so far. I'd expect him to be right in that same ballpark once again this week.
QB Josh Allen, BUF (Wk. 16: NE): Allen has been riding a real heater over the past 4 weeks, but I think all of us are kind of waiting for him to turn into a pumpkin. Will this be the week? Who knows. His rushing production took a pretty big dip last week, but he still did enough to end up as the QB4 for the week. He should be throwing plenty against New England. The Patriots are a 2-touchdown favorite and average 33.5 team points per game at home in Foxboro. New England has allowed the 10th-most QB points per game and has been vulnerable to moblie QBs this season. Allen should be on the QB1/QB2 borderline this week, but it will mostly depend on what he's able to do with his legs. 55% of his fantasy points in the last 4 weeks have come from rushing production. There's a lot of risk here, but Allen has come through in 4 straight.
RB Gus Edwards, BAL (Wk. 16: @LAC): This is a bit of a riskier week for Gus Edwards. The Chargers do allow the 9th-most RB points per game, but they are much more vulnerable to receiving back than pure runners and Edwards hasn't caught a pass since week 8. The Chargers have allowed the 9th-fewest RB rushing yards, and the 3rd-most receiving yards to the position. There is a bit of a silver lining for Edwards. LA has coughed up 8 rushing scores to opposing backs in the past 5, and Gus's workload seems to be safe even with the return of Kenneth Dixon. Edwards has carried at least 16 times in every game since he took over as the lead back. He's a solid flex play, and as always a better option in non-PPR leagues.
RB Kalen Ballage, MIA (Wk. 16: vs. Jax.): Outside of a 75-yard TD run, Ballage tallied 11 carries for 48 yards and 1 catch for -2 last weekend. That's still over 4 yards per carry when you remove his best run of the day. That gives some reason for optimism even going into a tough matchup this week with the Jaguars. Jacksonville has allowed fewer that 60 RB rushing yards in 4 of their last 5 games (and were shredded by Derrick Henry in the other). Workload alone puts Ballage firmly on the flex radar, but the lack of track record makes him a risky option. He'll be a sneaky DFS tournament play if he winds up being a factor in the passing game as well. I'm not sure if Kenyan Drake will still factor in there or not, but Ballage was one of the best route runners of this RB class in collge.
RB Josh Adams, PHI (Wk. 16: vs. Hou.): As quickly as Adams became the clear lead back in Philly, he has been relegated to committee work once again. Instead of Corey Clement, it's Wendell Smallwood and Darren Sproles sharing the load with him. Adams hasn't caught a pass in 4 weeks and has just 22 carries total in the past 2 weeks after tallying 20 & 22 carries in the previous 2 weeks. He also is looked to be clearly less than 100% last weekend. The Eagles are leaning on the run game more with Nick Foles under center, but Adams is just a dicey flex option against a Texans defense that is allowing the 9th-fewest RB points per game.
WR Dante Pettis, SF (Wk. 16: vs. Chi.): The Bears defense has been phenomenal this year, but the one fantasy position they haven't fully shut down is wide receiver. Chicago allows the 11th-most WR points per game, and Pettis has put up 13+ PPR points in 4 straight games. The targets should be there once again, making Pettis an upside WR3/flex option even against the Bears' elite defense.
WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 16: @Car.): Ridley is a dicey flex option this week IF Julio Jones plays. He should get a nice bump if Jones is out however. The Panthers are a plus matchup for him. Carolina ranks 28th in pass defense DVOA and allows th 9th-most WR points per game. Ridley has shown huge upside even with Julio on the field, but he's also failed to reach 50 yards or 10 PPR points in 5 of his last 7 games. I'd certainly lean towards starting him if Julio sits, but he's a boom-or-bust option as usual if Julio is out there.
WR Robert Foster, BUF (Wk. 16: @NE): Foster has burst onto the scene as Josh Allen has gone on his hot streak, posting 90+ receiving yards in 4 of his last 5 games and 17+ fantasy points in 3 of his last 4. The Pats have just a middling WR defense, and Foster has clearly emerged as a favorite target of Allen. I'd be tempted to call him a boom-or-bust option given his deep ball skills and the inexperience of this offense, but his production thus far has been really consistent. Foster should be a pretty solid WR3 option this week.
WR DaeSean Hamilton, DEN (Wk. 16: @Oak.): Hamilton hasn't shown a high ceiling, but he's shown a high floor after seeing a team-high 21 targets in the last 2 weeks. Case Keenum clearly likes targeting his slot WRs, and the Raiders are just average at defending the slot even though they allow the 9th-fewest WR points per game overall. There isn't big yardage upside, but 8-10 targets are likely for Hamilton this week. That makes him an intriguing flex for deeper PPR leagues.
TE Chris Herndon, NYJ (Wk. 16: vs. GB): Herndon's 3-53 line last Saturday was his best in 3 weeks. He gets to face off with Green Bay this week. The Packers have allowed the 7th-fewest TE points per game for the season, but have allowed 6+ catches and 50+ yards to the position in 3 of their past 4, and they rank just 22nd in pass defense DVOA on throws to the tight ends. Herndon is right on the cusp of being a top-10 option in the wasteland that is the tight end position.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 16: vs. LAR): The Rams have allowed 10 or fewer QB points in each of the past 3 games, and in 5 of the 6 games that Aqib Talib has played in. Rosen hasn't thrown a TD pass in the last 3 games, and hasn't reached 10 points in the last 4. The Cardinals have an implied team total of just 15 points. Rosen may be the worst QB option out there this week. If you're considering starting him as a superflex out of desperation, I'd look at playing a non-QB instead.
RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 16: @Oak.): If Denver puts the pieces together and returns to the form they showed a few weeks back, Freeman has a chance at a decent game in garbage time. I wouldn't count on that though. Royce is no more than a TD roll of the dice in the deepest of leagues.
RB Jeff WIlson Jr., SF (Wk. 16: vs. Chi.): After amassing 23 and 24 touches in the two games Matt Breida missed, Wilson dropped back to just 7 with Breida back out there in week 15. There is no tougher defense in the league than the Chicago Bears, and that means there is no reason to roll Wilson out there in any fantasy lineups as the 49ers RB2.
RB Justin Jackson, LAC (Wk. 16: vs. Bal.): The return of Melvin Gordon will render Jackson irrelevant for fantasy purposes this week, even with Austin Ekeler likely out. Jackson should see the change of pace work usually reserved for Ekeler, but the Ravens allow the 2nd-fewest RB points per game. If Gordon is somehow out again, Jackson would be a low-end RB2 option.
WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 16: vs. Atl.): There may be some upside for DJ with the QB switch from Cam Newton to Taylor Heinecke, but it's a big risk to bank on that in championship week. Newton clearly hasn't been healthy in a few weeks and Heinecke could ultimately prove to be an upgrade in the short term. This is a decent matchup with the Falcons ranking 30th in pass defense DVOA, but it would take some real cojones to roll Moore out in championship week with a QB making his first career start.
WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 16: @Oak.): The Raiders allow the 3rd-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing WR1s, and Sutton has been out-targeted by fellow rookie DaeSean Hamilton in consecutive games since Emmanuel Sanders was injured. Sutton hasn't produced much in those two game, tallying 7-56-0 on 11 targets. He's flashed some real talent, but Keenum hasn't shown a consistent ability to deliver the ball to the perimeter. Sutton is a risky play at best outside of really deep leagues.
WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 16: vs. TB): Gallup was targeted a whopping zero times last week in the shutout loss to Indy just a week after seeing 9 targets against Philly. That's too much volatility to have any trust in him even in a plus matchup. Tampa allows the 5th-most WR points per game, but Gallup isn't a top-40 option this week.
WRs Tre'Quan Smith & Keith Kirkwood, NO (Wk. 16: vs. Pit.): Smith is the bigger name here, but Kirkwood has been the more productive receiver over the past 4 weeks with 2 TDs. Neither should be near your championship week lineups though. Kirkwood has averaged just 24 yards per game over those last 4 games, and Tre'Quan has just 2 catches for 15 yards in total in that span. The game is at home, where New Orleans' offense is much more potent, and the Steelers rank 21s in pass defense DVOA, so there is some upside in DFS formats. I'd prefer Smith if I were rolling the dice on one of them, but I'd stay far away in season-long leagues.
WR Marcell Ateman, OAK (Wk. 16: vs. Den.): Only 2 teams allow more points to opposing WR2s than the Broncos, but Ateman has averaged fewer than 30 receiving yards and has just one touchdown in the 5 games he's played. Jordy Nelson, Jared Cook and Jalen Richard are all higher in the target pecking order than Ateman. You can find the same upside without as much risk.
TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 16: vs. Hou.): In his first real action with Nick Foles at QB, Goedert did little, pulling in 2 catches for 12 yards on 2 targets. Alshon Jeffery seems to be Foles' top target, and Golden Tate was much more involved after the switch as well. The Texans have struggled to defend tight ends, allowing just under 19 PPR points per game to the position over the past 6 contests. The matchup gives a shred of hope to those of you looking at Goedert as a TD dart throw, but I'd probably steer clear and chase a Zach Ertz bounce-back instead.
TEs Mark Andrews & Hayden Hurst, BAL (Wk. 16: @LAC): Both players continue to cannibalize the other's fantasy upside. Andrews has consistently shown more as a receiver than Hurst, but both are poor options in championship week.
TE Tyler Conklin, MIN (Wk. 16: @Det.): Conklin's role has been increasing of late, and he did post a season-high 53 receiving yards last Sunday, but he did that on just 3 targets. The Lions have allowed just 24 TE yards per game and 1 TD to the position over the past 5 games. All Conklin is accomplishing right now is killing Kyle Rudolph's upside.
TEs Jordan Thomas & Jordan Akins, HOU (Wk. 16: @Phi.): The Eagles allow the 8th-fewest TE points per game, and the Texans targeted their tight end group a total of twice last week. They have a 3-man tight end rotation. There's no reason to go here in any format.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 16: vs. GB): Darnold is coming off his best game of the season, and gets to face a Green Bay defense that has allowed multiple TD passes to 6 of the 7 QBs they've faced away from Lambeau. A big yardage game is unlikely as the Packers have only given up 250 or more passing yards in 5 of their 14 games on the year. Darnold hasn't shown the kind of ceiling you'd be looking for in DFS, but something in the ballpark of 225 yards and 2 or 3 TDs would certainly be servicable from a QB2 or superflex option.
RB John Kelly, LAR (Wk. 16: @Ari.): Todd Gurley's status is very much up in the air this week with the news that he hasn't run at all since last Sunday. The Rams need a win this week to help the secure a bye, but likely don't have to force Gurley into action to get one. The Rams did sign CJ Anderson this week, and a lot of media folks picked up on a comment Sean McVay made that "you can see Anderson playing a role as early as this week." I think they're reading too much into that comment. Kelly has been patiently biding his time behind Gurley, and I think it is him and not CJA who will handle the bulk of the work if Gurley is sidelined. The Cardinals allow the 4th-most RB points per game, so the upside here is huge. It would be a big leap of faith to play Kelly, but he has the skill to cash in if given the opportunity. NFL.com's Graham Barfield noted earlier this week that in college Kelly had the 3rd-most missed tackles forced per carry of any RBs to enter the league in the last 3 years behind only Saquon Barkley and Joe Mixon. This could be his time to shine. Obviously make sure that Gurley is out before pulling the trigger here, and pay attention to see if McVay gives any further indications what the workload split will look like.
RB Nyheim Hines, IND (Wk. 16: vs. NYG): This is as good a week as any to take a shot on Hines. The Giants are tied for the league-most 6 receiving TDs allowed to opposing RBs. Hines tallied 10 touches last week in the Colts' blowout win against Dallas, and Indy is a 9-point favorite this week. He's still a volatile option as long as he's playing behind Marlon Mack, but one with nice upside in DFS tournaments and in the deepest PPR leagues.
WR James Washington, PIT (Wk. 16: @NO): With JuJu Smith Schuster popping up on the injury report mid-week, Washington suddenly looks like he could be a potential week/league-winner. JuJu suffered a groin injury in practice Thursday, and it would be Washington who would step in opposite Antonio Brown if Smith-Schuster were to sit out. Washington is coming off a season-best 3-65 performance last week, and the Saints allow more WR points than any other team in the league. The Steelers are a 6-point underdog and should be throwing more than enough to make Washington a viable WR3 or better if Smith-Schuster is out on Sunday.
WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 16: vs. Cin.): The Bengals have shut down opposing slot WRs since the return of Darqueze Dennard, and it'll be Jarvis Landry who squares off with him this week. That should help open things up for the Browns' outiside receivers. Breshad Perriman and Rashard Higgins are still splitting snaps on one side, and it's Callaway lining up on the other. Callaway has 50 receiving yards and/or a score in 5 of his last 7 games. He has solid upside for DFS lineups and deeper leagues.
WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 16: @SF): Miller has been a total non-factor of late with just 1 catch for 1 yard in his past 3 games, but the time may be right for a resurgence. Miller may be a sneaky DFS tournament option this week. The Bears' offense is one that seemingly has a different standout each week, and the 49ers allow the 6th-most points per game to opposing WRs and the 5th-most to opposing slot WRs. He's a huge risk given how little he's been involved lately, but if the Bears get him involved again it's a risk that could pay off nicely.
TE Ian Thomas, CAR (Wk. 16: vs. ATL): Thomas is a wild card this week with Heinecke at quarterback, but inexperienced QBs have a tendency to lean on their tight ends. The Falcons ar a middling TE defense (18th-most points allowed, 15th in pass DVOA on throws to TEs), and Heinecke is a total unknown since Old Dominion was only an FBS program for one year that he was there. Thomas has been a pretty big part of the game plan since Greg Olsen was lost for the year, and that makes him at least a dart throw in the deepest of leagues and in DFS tournaments.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps you make he toughest decisions you've got for your lineups that involve rookies, and hopefully it helps you to a championship. Keep a very close eye on the injury report and the guys who end up inactive on game day. Some of these projections are contingent on other guys being out, and also you'll be kicking yourself if you start anyone who ends up inactive. Feel free to hit me up on twitter with any specific questions or if you want to yell at me about anything written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.
December
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It's semifinals week! Hopefully you had a bye and were able to avoid having to deal with the bizarre week 14 results to get to your semis. If you had any Rams, Kenny Golladay, Kirk Cousins, Cam Newton, Mitch Trubisky, Corey Davis, Chris Godwin, Golden Tate, Marquise Goodwin, or went up against Derrick Henry or George Kittle...hopefully you still found a way to claw your way to victory. Here's hoping week 15 gets back to normal a little bit. The lineup decisions this week are just as critical, so I'm still going to do my best to give you sound advice on what rookies can help you through to the championship. Note that the comments on Justin Jackson and Darrel Williams were written Thursday. Check the @drinkfive twitter feed for receipts on that. Let's dive in...
Rookies to Start:
RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 15: vs. Ten.): Of course you don't need my help on what to do with Saquon in season-long leagues, but I have a few tidbits for you DFS players. This isn't an ideal matchup for Barkley, so he might not be the chalk play in DFS, but the Titans have shown cracks in their run defense of late. 3 of their 4 worst performances against opposing RBs have come in the past 4 games, and Saquon has posted 4 straight 100-yard rushing performances.
RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 15: vs. Cle.): The Browns have been coughing up the 7th-most running back points per game (all ranks and point totals are in PPR scoring format), and they rank 26th in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA stat. Lindsay had a disappointing performance in week 14 against San Francisco, but still finished as the RB17 for the week with 15.1 PPR points. He's scored 8 touchdowns in his last 7 games, and has the kind of week-winning upside that you can't leave on your bench.
RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 15: @Den.): The Broncos have been solid against RBs, ranking 11th in run defense DVOA, but Chubb has been remarkably consistent since taking over as the lead back in Cleveland. He's posted 14+ PPR points in 6 of his 7 starts, and found the end zone in all 6 of those as well (5 straight games with a score). His receiving usage is also trending in the right direction, and the Broncos rank just 23rd in pass defense DVOA on throws to running backs. Chubb is a solid RB2 this week.
RB Jaylen Samuels, PIT (Wk. 15: vs. NE): This is fully contingent on James Conner missing another week...if Conner plays, you sit Samuels. If Samuels starts, he should be heavily involved in the passing game against a defense that ranks 20th in pass defense DVOA on throws to RBs, and is just a middle of the pack defense against RBs overall. The possible absence of Ryan Switzer should make Samuels an even bigger part of the short passing game. He'll be a top-20 option if Conner is out again. Keep a close eye on the injury report on this one.
RB Justin Jackson, LAC (Wk. 15: @KC): Jackson disappointed many fantasy owners in week 14 after playing second fiddle to Austin Ekeler and managing a paltry 12 rushing yards on 7 carries. Ekeler is out of the way this week, and Jackson is poised for a breakout game against a Chiefs' defense that is coughing up the 2nd-most PPR points per game to RBs. The Chiefs' biggest problem has been limiting receiving production from the position. Only 2 teams have allowed more than the 85 receptions to RBs that KC has given up, and no one has given up more than the 831 receiving yards KC has surrendered to them. Jackson has the receiving skills to capitalize. He's caught 5-of-5 targets on the year for 61 yards, and while that's a small sample size, he caught 79 passes over his final two college seasons at Northwestern. Justin should be a surefire top-20 RB this week with week-winning upside. If you have him, you should probably be starting him. (Update: Jackson posted 16-58-1 on the ground and 3-27 receiving for 17.5 PPR points Thursday night)
WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 15: vs. NO): Moore's production has been a little uneven, but his usage has not. He's been targeted at least 8 times in 4 straight games and this week faces the defense that allows the most points per game to WRs. The Panthers will likely be throwing as a 6-point underdog, and Moore should be a high-floor WR3 in a game where the Panthers' season is pretty much on the line.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Lamar Jackson, BAL (Wk. 15: vs. TB): The Bucs have been playing improved defense of late, allowing just 13 points per game to opposing QBs over their past 5 games, but 4 of those contests were at home. The road hasn't been nearly as kind to Tampa. Eli Manning is the only QB that has failed to top 20 points when hosting the Bucs. Jackson has a solid rushing floor that should give him a good chance to keep Eli on that island. Jackson is a low-end QB1 option with upside if he can ever have a productive passing game to go with his rushing.
QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 15: @Den.): Mayfield has been in a mini-slump for fantasy purposes with just 1 TD pass in each of the last 2 games after posting multiple scores in the 5 games prior. The Broncos have been solid against QBs, allowing the 12th-fewest QB points per game and allowing only 3 QBs all year to reach 20 points, but they've been struggling of late. Since their bye in week 10, the Broncos have given up an average of 355 passing yards per game and won't have their star slot corner Chris Harris Jr. in this one. Mayfield is still a dicey QB1 option, but he should be solid as a QB2 or superflex.
QB Josh Allen, BUF (Wk. 15: vs. Det.): Detroit has had one of the worst pass defenses in the league, ranking 31st in pass defense DVOA. Allen has posted some impressive numbers as a runner in the past 3 weeks, helping him finish as the QB4, QB2, and QB15. He ran for at least 99 yards in each game, but I'm not sure he keeps it up this week. No team has allowed fewer QB rushing yards than the 62 Detroit has given up. They've faced Cam Newton (2 rush yards), Russell Wilson (15 yards) Dak Prescott (2 yards) and Mitch Trubisky (18 yards). Allen will likely need to increase his passing production to be useful in fantasy this week. I'm not sure he'll do that. Allen has thrown for multiple TDs just once all year, and is yet to throw for 250 yards in a game. He's shown enough upside in the past 3 weeks to be considered a low-end QB1 option in deeper leagues, but I would be really hesitant to pull the trigger this week.
RB Jeff Wilson Jr., SF (Wk. 15: vs. Sea.): Keep an eye on the injury status of Matt Breida if you're thinking of playing Wilson. Breida has to sit for Wilson to be a viable option. Wilson has handled 47 touches in the past 2 weeks with Breida sidelined, and Seattle's defense is solid but unspectacular against opposing RBs. They allow the 11th-most RB points per game. As long as Breida is out again, Wilson should be a solid flex option with a strong floor. His receiving production dipped last week, but that was because the 49ers played with a lead for most of the game. I wouldn't expect a repeat of that in week 15.
RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 15: @Pit.): Michel's workload has remained solid even with the return of Rex Burkhead. He's had 37 carries in the past 2 games with Burkhead back, but my concern is that his receiving usage has been non-existent. His targets in the last 3 weeks have been 2, 1, and zero. This week he faces a Steelers defense that allows the 6th-fewest RB points per game and ranks 7th in run defense DVOA. New England is favored on the road, so the game script should be positive, and the game has one of the higher over/unders of the week at 52, so there should be scoring opportunities for Michel. The lack of passing game usage still has me concerned enough to not claim Michel is an automatic start in this tougher matchup. He's still a viable option, just temper your expectations.
RB Gus Edwards, BAL (Wk. 15: vs. TB): Speaking of guys who don't get much receiving work, Gus Edwards has one target all year, and is now dealing with a bit of a challenge for work from Kenneth Dixon. Dixon posted 59 yards on 8 rushes last week and vultured a TD from Edwards at the goal line. Edwards still appears to be the lead back, but the 16 carries he handled last week were the fewest he's seen since taking over as the starter. That usage still puts him in the flex conversation against the Bucs. Tampa ranks 30th in run defense DVOA, and allows 21.1 points per game to opposing RB1s. Dixon's increasing usage worries me a bit, but if you're a gambler Edwards could pay off big.
RB Josh Adams, PHI (Wk. 15: @LAR): Philly should lean on the run a bit more going forward since it looks like Carson Wentz will miss the remainder of the season with a back injury. Corey Clement went on IR this week, thinning out the Eagles' backfield a little more, so Adams should continue to get plenty of work. The biggest concern here is game script. The Rams are an 11-point favorite, and outside of week 11 when he was targeted 6 times, Adams has just 2 targets all year. If the Eagles can keep this game tight, Adams could do good things. The Rams rank just 24th in run defense DVOA. Adams has value as an RB3/flex option this week, but he's risky.
WR Dante Pettis, SF (Wk. 15: vs. Sea.): Pettis popped up on the injury report with a foot injury on Friday, but I'd still expect him to play this week. The 49ers have been dealing with a bunch of WR injuries, which have opened the door for Pettis to play a bunch. He's been targeted 7 times in 3 straight games, posting a line of 12-255-4 in those games. Marquise Goodwin also popped up on the injury report Friday. If Pettis plays and Goodwin doesn't, Pettis would be the de facto WR1. The Seahawks allow the 3rd-most points per game to opposing WR1s. Even if Goodwin plays, Pettis is an intriguing WR3 option who has shown a clear connection with Nick Mullens.
WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 15: vs. Cle.): Sutton was a big letdown last week in his first game without Emmanuel Sanders on the field, but he should be in a good spot for a bounce back this week. Browns allow the 10th-most WR points per game, and almost half of the points they allow go to the opposing team's WR1 (19 out of 39.5). Sutton is a WR3/flex option in leagues with 12 or more teams.
WR Robert Foster, BUF (Wk. 15: vs. Det.): Foster has quickly emerged as the best fantasy WR option in Buffalo. That's not really saying much, but he's cleared 90 receiving yards in 3 of his past 4 games and had a season-high 8 targets last week. With Zay Jones only in the slot about half the time, Jones should share the attention of Lions top corner Darius Slay with Foster. Even with Slay, the Lions pass defense has been no bueno. Detroit ranks 31st in pass defense DVOA, 24th on throws to the opposing WR1 and 30th on throws to the WR2. Foster could be in line for another strong game, especially if the Lions are able to keep Josh Allen from running on them.
TE Ian Thomas, CAR (Wk. 15: vs. NO): The Saints are one of the toughest matchups possible to a tight end, but Thomas has been targeted 16 times in the past 2 weeks and the TE position has been a bit of a wasteland this season. I'd play him over any other rookie TE and would start him over other borderline guys CJ Uzomah, Cameron Brate, and Austin Hooper.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 15: vs. Hou.): Darnold's return to action went about as well as expected last week. He posted 170 yards with one score and one pick. He hasn't shown enough upside to be trusted in the fantasy playoffs. Darnold has topped 230 yards passing just twice in 10 starts, has thrown for multiple TDs in just 3 of them, and has thrown 15 interceptions on the year. Houston allows the 11th-fewest QB points per game and is tied for 8th in the league with 13 interceptions. I'm not sure I'd trust Darnold as a desperation QB2.
RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 15: @SF): Penny's role is to split the scraps that Chris Carson leaves behind with Mike Davis. That isn't a role you can trust in the fantasy playoffs. The 49ers allow just 7.4 PPR points per game to opposing RB2s. There is some upside for a cheap DFS tournament play, but he won't be in any of my lineups.
RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 15: vs. Cle.): Freeman is no more than a TD dart throw at this point, and Cleveland allows less than 6 points per game to opposing RB2s. He's scored just 2 TDs in his past 7 games, and reached 40 rushing yards just once in that span.
RB Nyheim Hines, IND (Wk. 15: vs. Dal.): Hines has scored more than 7 points just twice in the past 8 games, and the Cowboys allow just 6 PPR points per game to opposing RB2s. Hines isn't a smart bet if you're taking a chance in a DFS tournament or a really deep league.
RB Darrel Williams, KC (Wk. 15: vs. LAC): I'd be excited to see what Williams can do tonight with Spencer Ware sidelined, but I'm not convinced the Chiefs will give him the opportunity after they signed the Charknado, Charcandrick West last week. West is a player that has played for Andy Reid and the Chiefs in the past and will likely leapfrog Williams on the depth chart. Damien Williams will be the number one back for KC Thursday, and it will likely be West serving as his primary backup. Darrel Williams was stuck behind Leonard Fournette and Derrius Guice at LSU, yet he still managed to post better receiving numbers and more yards per carry than Guice last year. Keep an eye on his usage against the Chargers, but there's no reason to put him in your starting lineup in any format. (Update: Darrel Williams posted 2-13 on the ground and 2-19-1 receiving for 11.2 PPR points)
WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 15: vs. Ari.): The Cardinals have actually been one of the better WR defenses in the league, and they've really only been burned by WR1s. Ridley has been a boom or bust option weekly, with fewer than 10 points or more than 16 in each and every game this year. He's scored a TD in just two of the past 9 games, and this is looking like a bust week again. Julio should be a fantastic option, but Ridley is a risky flex in deep leagues at best. The Cardinals allow the 9th-fewest WR points per game.
WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 15: @Den.): Callaway gets a reasonable matchup this week with the Broncos allowing the 3rd-most points per game to opposing WR2s, but he isn't getting enough run lately to take advantage. Callaway has run 17 or fewer routes in 3 of his past 4 games and didn't make it to 3 targets in 2 of them. The Browns will benefit from not having to face Chris Harris Jr. in the slot, but Callaway plays almost exclusively on the perimeter. I'd stay away this week.
WR DaeSean Hamilton, DEN (Wk. 15: vs. Cle.): Hamilton could be fun in a Saturday-only DFS slate, but I'd be hard-pressed to play him in the fantasy playoffs. He had a nice game a week ago, but he has just a one-game track record and the Browns allow just 11 points per game to the slot. Sutton is a much better play than Hamilton this week.
WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 15: @Ind.): Gallup's role has been much more defined since the Amari Cooper trade and his usage has actually increased with Coop on board, but his production hasn't really followed suit. He's averaged nearly 7 targets per game over the past 4, but averaging just 3 catches and 32 yards in that span. The Colts allow just the 6th-fewest WR points per game. This isn't a week to take a chance on Gallup.
WRs Equanimeous St. Brown & Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB (Wk. 15: @Chi.): The Bears boast the best overall defense in the league, and Randall Cobb has regained his spot as the WR2 in Green Bay. Cobb played 44 snaps in week 14 compared to 34 for St. Brown and 30 for Valdes-Scantling. This was actually the first time that St. Brown out-snapped Valdes-Scantling all year. If you really want to roll the dice on one of these two guys, my choice would be MVS, but I wouldn't recommend using either.
WR Tre'Quan Smith, NO (Wk. 15: @Car.): This is a great matchup for Smith, but he's been a ghost most weeks lately. Smith has posted 3 goose eggs in his last 4 games (10-157-1 in the other). He's an intereting cheap DFS option, but it would take a massive leap of faith knowing you could very easily get a zero from him. The Panthers do rank dead last in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing WR2.
WR Marcell Ateman, OAK (Wk. 15: @Cin.): The Bengals are actually favored in this game, so the Raiders should be throwing, but Ateman hasn't topped 50 yards in a game all year and has had more than 5 targets just once in the last 4 games. The Bengals aren't a good defense, but Ateman is just too risky to trust this week.
WR James Washington, PIT (Wk. 15: vs. NE): Don't get cute here. Ryan Switzer is questionable this week, and that could lead to additional playing time for Washington, but we've seen him play increased snaps before. It hasn't resulted in increased production. Washington hasn't topped 25 receiving yards in any game this year. You'd be crazy to count on him having the best week of his season in your fantasy playoffs.
TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 15: @LAR): Goedert nearly had his best game of the season last week. He had a long receiving TD wiped out by a bogus offensive pass interference penalty and was still the TE8 for the week. The QB change to Nick Foles changes things for this offense though. We don't have much to go off of since Goedert has only played with Foles for two games...the first two of his career. Goedert's role has grown since then. There is a bigger sample size to look at last season with Foles. Philly's TE2 last year, Trey Burton, totaled just 4-36 on 8 targets in the 6 Foles starts last season. Goedert remains a TD dart throw, but one that I don't feel great about with Wentz sidelined.
TEs Jordan Thomas & Jordan Akins, HOU (Wk. 15: @NYJ): The return of Ryan Griffin makes the Texans' TE usage even messier than it was before. All 3 TEs were able to get involved last weekend, with Akins and Thomas combining for 6-71 while Griffin posted a 5-80 line. The matchup this weekend isn't nearly as giving to TEs. The Jets allow the 5th-fewest TE points per game and rank 11th in pass defense DVOA on throws to TEs. I'd steer clear of the whole trio this week.
TEs Mark Andrews & Hayden Hurst, BAL (Wk. 15: vs. TB): If I had any faith that the Ravens would use one of these guys as their primary TE, I'd feel good about playing them in this matchup. After seeing Maxx Williams score an unexpected TD last week, I don't feel good about predicting anything with this TE group. The Bucs rank 29th in pass defense DVOA on throws to tight ends, but your guess is as good as mine on which TE will benefit from that. I can't trust any of them in the fantasy playoffs this week.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 15: @Atl.): Rosen's rookie year could be kindly called forgettable so far. He's reached double-digit fantasy points just twice in his last 8 games and hasn't thrown a TD pass in the last 2 weeks, but I like his chances for a surprising week. I expect him to reach double-digits for the 3rd time in 9 games. Atlanta has allowed at least 14.8 QB points in every game after week 1, and they rank 30th in pass defense DVOA. Rosen would be a sneaky play if you're in a tough spot at QB2. He should have one of his best games of the season.
RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 15: vs. Ari.): The Cardinals have spent much of this season playing from behind and have surrendered plenty of points to opposing RBs. They've been down enough that the number 2 backs frequently get in on the act, allowing 10.6 PPR points per game to the opposing RB2s. The Falcons are 8.5-point favorites this week, and Ito actually out-touched Tevin Coleman last week. Smith had his best game since week 9 last Sunday, and I think there is a pretty good chance he tops what he did last week in this one. The Cardinals allow the 4th-most RB points per game.
WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 15: vs. GB): Miller is mostly a TD dart throw, but he may be a pretty good dart throw this week. The Packers allow the 4th-most WR points per game, and the 5th-most points per game out of the slot where Miller plays 67% of his snaps. He's had just 10 targets and totaled 6-67 in the last 4 games, but he's found the end zone twice in those games. He's scored in 6 of the 12 games he's played. If you're desperate, you could do worse than a coin flip bet for a TD against a bad defense.
WR DeAndre Carter, HOU (Wk. 15: @NYJ): Carter isn't a well-known name, but he's probably my favorite sleeper for the 2-game Saturday DFS slate. Keke Coutee has been ruled out for this game, and Carter is expected to be cleared to play. No team allows more points per game to opposing slot WRs than the Jets. Carter shouldn't be considered in season-long leagues, but he has a bunch of upside in a strong matchup if you're looking for a bargain basement WR in DFS.
WR Trent Sherfield, ARI (Wk. 15: @Atl.): Sherfield posted 5-77 on 7 targets out of the blue last week. He's clearly going to be involved going forward with Christian Kirk on IR. Atlanta ranks 30th in pass defense DVOA, and the Cardinals should be throwing as 8.5-point underdogs. He's too risky to try in season-long leagues, but is another name to know as a cheap DFS option this week.
TE Anthony Firkser, TEN (Wk. 15: @NYG): Firkser isn't technically a rookie after spending last year on a practice squad, but I wanted to mention him since casual fans don't know who he is. Firkser finally gives Ryan Fitzpatrick company as a Harvard alum playing in the NFL. He's managed to haul in at least 3 catches in 4 straight games, and topped 40 receiving yards in 3 of them. Jonnu Smith, who was starting ahead of Firkser was put on IR earlier this week. This should be the first game all year where Firkser is the unquestioned TE1, and the Giants rank 24th in pass defense DVOA on throws to TEs. Firkser is a low-end fantasy TE1 this week.
TE Chris Herndon, NYJ (Wk. 15: vs. Hou.): Herndon's production has been down over the past couple weeks and Darnold's return last week didn't do anything to help, but this week's matchup is a good one. The Texans allow the 9th-most TE points per game on the year, and in the past 5 games they've given up 65+ yards and a score to the position 4 times. Herndon is more of a TE2 than TE1 for fantasy, but I like his chances to post his best game in weeks.
TE Dan Arnold, NO (Wk. 15: @Car.): Arnold was a surprising healthy scratch last Sunday. I'm not sure if it was a disciplinary thing or what happened, but the matchup this week is juicy if he's active. The Panthers allow the 3rd-most TE points per game and Ben Watson hasn't exactly been a factor in the Saints' passing attack. If Arnold is active, he could be worth a swing in DFS tournaments.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your tougher lineup decisions involving rookies and helps you into your league championship. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, please feel free to reach out on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). Keep a close eye on the injury report and make sure not to start anyone inactive. You'd hate to put up an unnecessary goose egg with your season on the line. As always: good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.
December
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve found our way to the fantasy playoffs…man did this season fly by. Hopefully your teams are still alive and kicking, and if they are, you’ve probably gotten some help from a rookie along the way. Each week more rookies have put their imprint on this season and the list of useful first year guys continues to grow. In week 13 it was Justin Jackson, Dante Pettis and Jeff Wilson Jr busting onto the scene. These one-week studs can be hard to trust with your season on the line this week, but the Rookie Report is here to help you sort it all out. Keep in mind that any players at the same position and under the same header are listed in the order I would play them this week. Let’s take a look at what to expect in week 14…
Rookies to Start:
QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Car.): Mayfield has been playing at a high level over the last month plus, and the Panthers have been scuffling in a big way. Baker’s final stat line wasn’t pretty last week, but he had a strong second half after an abysmal first. Carolina has been giving up 23.5 points per game to opposing QBs over the past 5 games, and have let 4 of them reach 22 or more (all point totals and rankings are in PPR scoring format). The Panthers have allowed the 6th-most QB points per game on the year, and rank just 28th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat. I’d expect Mayfield to finish the week as a top-10 performer at the position.
RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 14: @Was.): As usual, you don’t need me to tell you to start Barkley. He should be a chalk play in DFS cash games this week as well. All you really need to know is that the 4-win Giants area 3.5-point favorite on the road. Washington is in shambles right now and Saquon should run wild on them.
RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 14: @SF): Lindsay has scored in double-digits in every game this season that he wasn’t ejected from, but he’s really hit his stride lately. He’s been averaging 19.5 fantasy points over the past 6 games with 7 rushing scores in that span, and his top 2 rushing yardage totals of the year came in the past two weeks. The Broncos are 5.5-point favorites this week on the road against the 49ers, so game script should keep Lindsay running, and running well. You can’t sit him this week.
RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Car.): I was tempted to list Chubb as a borderline option this week due to the tough matchup, but couldn’t bring myself to do it. His use as a receiver has kept him useful even when he hasn’t had big rushing days. The Panthers allow the 5th fewest RB points per game and rank 8th in run defense DVOA, but Chubb has had just one game outside the top-20 RBs since becoming the unquestioned starter in Cleveland. The upside is too good to leave sidelined.
RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 14: @Mia.): The Pats are heavy favorites in Miami this weekend, and the Dolphins have coughed up the 7th-most RB points per game on the year. The return of Rex Burkhead might limit Michel’s upside just a bit, but he still handled 17 carries last Sunday with the Patriots up most of the day. If the workload is similar this week, and it should be, the Georgia alum should have a strong RB2 finish.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Lamar Jackson, BAL (Wk. 14: @KC): This will be an interesting week for Jackson. Kansas City has allowed the 5th-most QB points per game on the year, but they rank a passable 13th in pass defense DVOA and Lamar hasn’t reached 180 passing yards in any of his 3 starts and has just 1 passing TD total in those games. His rushing yards give him a solid weekly floor, especially with the Chiefs ranking dead last in run defense DVOA, but he’ll need a more productive passing day than he’s had so far to hit his ceiling. He’s a risky QB1 streamer in deeper leagues, but a solid QB2.
RB Gus Edwards, BAL (Wk. 14: @KC): As I just mentioned above, the Chiefs rank dead last in the league in run defense DVOA. Edwards provides nothing in the passing game and the Chiefs are a TD-favorite, but the Ravens with Lamar Jackson under center aren’t going to abandon the run game even if they fall behind. With 61 carries and 315 rushing yards in the last 3 weeks, Edwards should be a high-floor flex play this week who will pleasantly surprise if he finds the end zone. He remains a better play in non-PPR formats.
RB Josh Adams, PHI (Wk. 14: @Dal.): The workhorse usage continued for Adams in week 13, his second straight game with 20+ carries, but like Gus Edwards he’s been a non-factor in the passing game. Dallas is a tough matchup, ranking 6th in run defense DVOA and allowing the 8th-fewest RB points per game. He’s still in play as a flex option, but I’d be hopeful I have better options at the RB1 and RB2 spots.
RB Justin Jackson, LAC (Wk. 14: vs. Cin.): Jackson became fantasy relevant at just the right time to showcase his skills. There aren’t many matchups better than the one he faces this week. Melvin Gordon will be sidelined again, and Jackson was far more effective last week than Austin Ekeler has been in a lead back role. Coach Anthony Lynn claimed Ekeler is worn down at this point of the season, and hinted that Jackson would have a bigger role moving forward until Gordon returns. Cincy ranks 28th in run defense DVOA, and has allowed more RB fantasy points per game than any other team. In the past 7 games, the Bengals have given up 145 rushing yards per game to RBs along with 11 rushing TDs. There’s risk here since we don’t really know how the split will look between Jackson and Ekeler, but Jackson has the upside to finish the week as a top-10 back.
RB Jaylen Samuels, PIT (Wk. 14: @Oak.): Samuels should have a big opportunity this week with James Connor out, but head coach Mike Tomlin has stated it will be a running back by committee game plan with Samuels and vet Stevan Ridley. Samuels is more likely to catch passes than Ridley, but Ryan Switzer may also pick up some of the dump offs vacated by Conner. The Raiders rank 31st in run defense DVOA, but only the Vikings run the ball on a lower percentage of their offensive plays than the Steelers. Overall, Samuels makes for an intriguing flex option with plenty of PPR upside, but I think he’s riskier than Jackson this week.
WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 14: @Cle.): Somehow Cleveland ranks an impressive 4th in pass defense DVOA, but still allows the 8th-most WR points per game. Although his production has been a little uneven, Moore’s usage has been consistent. He’s been targeted at least 8 times in each of the past 3 games. With Greg Olsen done for the year, Moore and Christian McCaffrey are the two focal points of this passing game. Moore is a solid WR3 this week.
WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 14: @SF): With the news Wednesday night that Emmanuel Sanders is done for the year with an Achilles tear, Sutton suddenly becomes the de facto WR1 in Denver. He’s posted 78+ receiving yards in each of his past 3 road games, and saw a career-high 7 targets last Sunday before Sanders was hurt. The 49ers rank 26th in pass defense DVOA. He’s a safe bet for 7+ targets again this week and should be a legitimate WR3 play this week even in this lackluster passing attack.
WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 14: @GB): There isn’t much to say about Ridley except that he’s going to be a boom or bust option once again this week. He lives on the WR3 borderline. Green Bay has been mediocre against WRs, allowing the 9th-most points per game to the position, and this one feels like it could be a shootout between 2 teams mired in disappointing seasons. Keep an eye on the weather report for this one. If it’s going to be bitter cold, I’d probably shy away from Ridley a bit, but his usual upside is there.
WR Tre’Quan Smith, NO (Wk. 14: @TB): In the last 4 road games that Smith has started in, he has totaled 6 catches for 62 yards with zero scores. That’s not exactly impressive, but I like his chances to have his best road game of the season this week. Tampa allows the 3rd-most WR points per game and ranks 29th in pass defense DVOA. The Saints’ passing attack will be looking to get right this week after laying an egg in Dallas last Thursday, and the Bucs are as good a matchup to do that against as any. Smith should be closer to full health after being a non-factor last week. Tre’Quan remains risky, but he’s a fun option if you’re feeling lucky.
TE Mark Andrews, BAL (Wk. 14: @KC): If you’re scrounging the waiver wire this week for a TE (Olsen owner, worried about questionable tag on Ebron, not enthused about Brate, Burton, or Hooper), Andrews is worth a look this week. He’s quietly posted 121 receiving yards in the last 2 weeks with Lamar Jackson at QB, and Kansas City allows more TE points per game than any other team. They’ve given up 85+ receiving yards to TEs in 6 of their 12 contests, and have given up 30+ fantasy points and multiple scores to tight ends in each of the last 2 games. The floor is low, but Andrews seems to have emerged as the top TE target in Baltimore and has as good a matchup as possible.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 14: vs. Det.): The matchup with the Lions is an OK one for Rosen. The Lions have given up an average of 2 passing TDs per week, but the volume just isn’t there for Rosen to be useful, and he just lost his most productive receiver to injured reserve (Christian Kirk). The Lions have held 6 of the 12 QBs they’ve faced to 230 or fewer passing yards. I’d expect Rosen to make it 7 of 13.
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 14: @Buf.): Darnold will likely return to the starting role this week, but this is not the matchup to roll the dice on him. The Bills rank 3rd in pass defense DVOA and no team in the league has allowed fewer QB fantasy points. Just one QB they’ve faced in their past 10 games has topped 15 points, and 6 of them were held to 10 or fewer.
RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 14: @Ari.): At 4-8, the Lions have no reason to rush Kerryon back into action. He’s currently listed as doubtful, so it’s probably a moot point to even list him here. If he is active, I’d expect the Lions to really limit his playing time. I’d avoid him this week.
RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 14: vs. Min.): Penny has made the most of limited opportunities in recent weeks with 223 rushing yards on 31 carries in the past 4 weeks, but the Vikings are stingy against the run and rank 9th in run defense DVOA. I’d have some interest in Penny as a sleeper if he were being used as a receiver, but he has zero targets in those 4 games. The Vikings do rank 31st in pass defense DVOA on throws to backs. There just isn’t enough upside in Penny to take a shot this week.
RB Nyheim Hines, IND (Wk. 14: @Hou.): Hines was targeted a surprising 9 times last week and caught all of them, but I’d be stunned if that happens again. His usage remains wildly inconsistent, and the Texans rank 1st in the league in pass defense DVOA on throws to RBs. Hines provides little in the run game, and needs to make a splash as a receiver to be useful. This isn’t a great spot to bet on him doing that.
RB Chase Edmonds, ARI (Wk. 14: vs. Det.): Don’t expect a repeat of the game Edmonds posted in week 13. He saw just 5 carries to 20 for David Johnson. I would expect a similar split this week…I just wouldn’t expect Edmonds to be as efficient with those limited touches this week.
WR Dante Pettis, SF (Wk. 14: vs. Den.): Pettis had a blowup game last weekend, but the Broncos have a strong pass defense. They rank 2nd in pass defense DVOA, and Marquise Goodwin should be back this week. The 49ers should be passing plenty, so Pettis is worth consideration in deeper leagues, but for most formats there’s too much at stake to count on a repeat performance by Pettis.
WRs Marquez Valdes-Scantling & Equanimeous St. Brown, GB (Wk. 14: vs. Atl.): There may be some upside here, but your guess is as good as mine when it comes to which guy will make good on that upside. The Falcons rank an abysmal 31st in pass defense DVOA, but have been mostly burned by RBs and TEs. I’d expect a lot of Aaron Jones, Davante Adams and Jimmy Graham this week. ESB and MVS are both too risky to roll with in the fantasy playoffs.
WR Keke Coutee, HOU (Wk. 14: vs. Ind.): The Colts allow the 5th-fewest WR points in the league, and Coutee is battling his 3rd hamstring injury of the season. It kept him out of last week’s game against Cleveland, and even if he’s able to play this week he’ll likely be the 3rd option in the passing attack behind Nuk Hopkins and DT.
WR Marcell Ateman, OAK (Wk. 14: vs. Pit.): With Jordy Nelson back at full strength, Ateman’s opportunity pretty much dried up. The Raiders would be smart to let the youngster get some valuable experience in a lost season, but it looks unlikely that Gruden will allow that. You can’t trust Ateman in any format this week.
WR Trey Quinn, WAS (Wk. 14: vs. NYG): The return of Chris Thompson and Jamison Crowder should render Quinn irrelevant even if he is able to play this week. That duo will handle the majority of the targets that Quinn can compete for. It’s also hard to count on any passing game target in an offense that is quarterbacked by Mark Sanchez.
TE Chris Herndon, NYJ (Wk. 14: @Buf.): The Bills rank 2nd in the league in pass defense DVOA on throws to TEs. They’ve given up fewer than 2 TE points four times, and fewer than 9 points seven times. Herndon’s had some nice games along the way, but I wouldn’t want to bank on him finding the end zone in Darnold’s first game back on the field.
TE Jordan Thomas, HOU (Wk. 14: vs. Ind.): Thomas is a TD dart throw facing a team that has given up 3 tight end scores all year. Thomas has been a pretty good TD bet lately, catching 4 of them in his past 5 games, but he’s posted just 16.8 total points in the 8 games he didn’t find the end zone. A goose egg would be tough to swallow in a playoff game.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Josh Allen, BUF (Wk. 14: vs. NYJ): Allen has a consistently low floor, but he’s shown the upside with his running ability over the past few weeks. The removal of Kelvin Benjamin could be addition by subtraction for the Bills’ pass attack. The Jets have allowed 5 of the last 9 QBs they’ve faced to reach 20 fantasy points, and another made it to 19. Allen is a decent QB2 streamer in a solid matchup.
RB Jeff Wilson Jr., SF (Wk. 14: vs. Den.): Wilson caught 8 passes in his first meaningful game action of the season, and he should see more work going forward. Matt Breida is out this week, and the Broncos rank 22nd in pass defense DVOA on throws to opposing RBs. He should be in play as a flex option in PPR formats. I’d expect Alf Morris to be active and be part of the game plan, but Wilson will be the better fantasy option of the 2.
RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 14: @SF): If you’re desperate at RB, you could do worse than take a shot on Freeman finding the end zone this week. He’s found the end zone in half of the games he’s played this season, and the Broncos should be able to control this game or at least keep the game script neutral. The Niners are just a middling run defense, ranking 16th in run defense DVOA.
RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 14: @GB): This is the first time in 4 weeks that Smith actually has a decent matchup after squaring off against the Cowboys, Saints and Ravens over the past 3 weeks. This week he faces the Packers, who rank 27th in run defense DVOA. Smith hasn’t exactly gotten a lot of run with 17 carries and 5 targets in his past 3 games, but Tevin Coleman hasn’t gotten that much more with 22 carries and 10 targets in that span. Smith is only really in play in the deepest of leagues, but I expect him to have the best game he’s had in over a month.
WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Car.): Callaway’s turnaround since the first half of the season has been stark. In the first 6 games of the year, he caught just 15 of 40 targets for 186 yards and 1 TD. In the past 6, he went 18-186-2 on just 26 targets. The volume hasn’t been great, but the efficiency has been solid. The targets will come if he continues to play this well. Carolina has allowed the 6th-most WR points per game, and I’m confident Callaway will see 6+ targets in this one. A WR4 week is a realistic hope for the rookie in this one.
WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 14: vs. LAR): It appears likely that the Bears will get Mitch Trubisky back this week, and the Rams have struggled to contain ancillary receivers this season. They rank 27th in pass defense DVOA on throws to WRs other than the #1 or #2 guy (A-Rob & Gabriel). The Bears love to spread the ball around a bit, so Miller is a volatile option, but the upside is there for deeper leagues.
WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 14: vs. Phi.): Gallup finally seems to have emerged as the clear WR2 in Dallas after seeing inconsistent targets and playing time for much of the year. The Amari Cooper trade seems to have crystallized the receiver depth chart. Cooper will continue to be the lead guy, but Gallup showed last Thursday he has some upside as well. The Eagles allow the 2nd-most WR points per game and rank 27th in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing #2 WR. Cooper is still the obvious play here, but Gallup is intriguing against the banged up Eagles’ secondary as well.
WR Robert Foster, BUF (Wk. 14: vs. NYJ): The Jets have allowed the 4th-most WR points per game and rank just 18th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws. The deep ball is Foster’s bread and butter. His target share should increase with Kelvin Benjamin and Andre Holmes kicked to the curb. He’s worth a stash in deeper dynasty leagues, and is worth looking at as a punt play in DFS tournaments.
WR DaeSean Hamilton, DEN (Wk. 14: @SF): Hamilton is more of a stash than anything at this point. With Emmanuel Sanders done for the year (and possibly part of next year), Hamilton should be on the field a lot more going forward. The Broncos have a low volume passing attack, so it would make sense to take a wait-and-see approach to figure out how the targets break down going forward.
TE Ian Thomas, CAR (Wk. 14: @Cle.): Thomas managed to pull in 5 catches after Greg Olsen got hurt last weekend, and the Browns allow the 6th-most TE points per game. Tight ends are averaging 75 yards per game with 4 TDs against Cleveland in the past 4 games. We saw Thomas as a starter earlier this season when Olsen was hurt, and his production was underwhelming, but there’s a chance he’s more useful in this go-round. He’s worth consideration as a bargain basement DFS option.
TE Dan Arnold, NO (Wk. 14: @TB): The Buccaneers have given up 9 or more TE points in 11 of their 12 games this season. Arnold has been ascending over the past few weeks. Ben Watson has gone 2-21 on just 4 targets over the past 4 weeks while Arnold has gone 10-115-1 on 13 targets in that same span. Arnold is the guy to take a shot on here if you’re going to target the Bucs porous TE defense.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report this week to make sure your guys are playing. The last thing you want this week is to put up a goose egg from a player because you forgot to check his status on game day. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
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