Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 10 was one of the more fun weeks we’ve seen this season. We got to see the return of Kyler Murray, the Josh Dobbs train kept rolling for Minnesota, there were FOUR walk-off game-winning field goals in great games on Sunday, and we capped the week off with the Bills overcoming 4 turnovers only to lose to Denver on another walk-off FG due to a 12 men on the field penalty on Monday night.
It was a barnburner of a week with plenty of great rookie performances. CJ Stroud and Tank Dell continued to shine for the Texans, Jordan Addison, Dalton Kincaid, and Jayden Reed got back into the end zone, Quentin Johnston got there for the first time. We also got to see Bijan Robinson get back into the RB1 ranks against Arizona and Jahmyr Gibbs post his 3rd-straight monster game. All in all, it was a great week for the rookies, although it was a bad week to be any rookie QB not named Stroud.
Week 10 saw the QB and WR positions greatly hampered by the bye weeks, but in week 11 it’ll be the RB position. Bijan, Jonathan Taylor, Alvin Kamara, and Rhamondre Stevenson are all on byes this week, and you may be looking at rookies to fill a running back or flex spot to replace them. Luckily, I’m here to help you through and give you the rookie intel you need. Let’s get to this week’s rookie matchups.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Let’s dive into week 11…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
QB CJ Stroud, HOU (Wk. 11: vs. Ari.): It’s hard to find enough superlatives to properly describe what Stroud has done since the calendar turned to November. Two weeks ago, he was the QB16 in PPR points per game for the season and his solid play was a nice story for the Texans. After a dismantling of the Bucs and a shocking upset of the Bengals, he’s now up to the QB6 for the year and is getting legitimate MVP buzz. I wouldn’t expect that train to stop rolling this week against the Cardinals. Arizona has allowed the 9th-most QB points per game and ranks 30th in pass defense DVOA. The only concern I’d have is that Stroud’s passing volume could be low if the game is lopsided – Arizona’s last 5 opponents have averaged just 183 passing yards per game against them – but the return of Kyler Murray should help Arizona stay more competitive and keep Stroud throwing. CJ has tallied at least 1 total TD in each of his last 8 starts, and 2+ scores in 6 of them. He should be treated as a mid-range QB1 this week.
RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (Wk. 11: vs. Chi.): Dan Campbell told us that Gibbs would continue to get his touches with David Montgomery back in the lineup, and he was not lying. Gibbs out-snapped Monty in a game both played in full for the first time all year, racked up 112 yards and 2 TDs on 17 touches, and he’s now posted 3 consecutive games where he’s been the PPR RB1 or RB2 overall for the week. I wouldn’t set the bar quite that high this week against a Chicago defense that has been excellent against the run over their last 5 games. The Bears haven’t allowed any back to run for 50+ yards or average 4.0 yards per carry against them in that span, but they’ve been more vulnerable to receiving backs, which works in Gibbs’ favor. The Bears allow a league-worst 15 PPR points per game in running back receiving production, and Jahmyr has about 70% of the team’s running back targets on the year. He should still be a top-12 option even against that stout Chicago run defense, especially when you consider that Bijan Robinson, Alvin Kamara, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Jonathan Taylor are all on byes this week.
RB De’Von Achane, MIA (Wk. 11: vs. LV): Achane is likely to return from IR this week, and in the last 3 games we saw him play, he reached 120 scrimmage yards and a TD in all of them. There’s a chance Miami will ease him back in after a month off, but he only averaged 15 touches per game during that 3-game span, hardly an overwhelming workload. This week he faces a Vegas defense that ranks 27th in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 8th-most RB points per game. Is it possible that he doesn’t keep shredding defenses to the tune of 12 yards per carry? Of course, but you can’t leave that kind of upside on your bench in a good matchup.
WR Tank Dell, HOU (Wk. 11: vs. Ari.): Dell followed up an overall WR1 finish in week 9 with a less efficient, but still effective WR11 finish in week 10. Dell was targeted a whopping 14 times in the game with Nico Collins sidelined but finished with a modest 6 catches for 56 yards and a TD. The Bengals have a much better secondary than the Arizona team Dell will face this weekend. The Cardinals rank 30th in pass defense DVOA and have given up spike yardage weeks to a few WR1s this season. Brandon Aiyuk, Ja’Marr Chase, Cooper Kupp and Amari Cooper have all topped 135 receiving yards in a game against the Cards this year. Nico will return this week, and Noah Brown has been emerging as well, but Dell is the best bet to have that kind of blowup game in this one. I’d expect Dell’s floor this week to be right around 10-12 PPR points, with the upside for plenty more if things break his way.
WR Puka Nacua, LAR (Wk. 11: vs. Sea.): Nacua’s stats had suffered a little bit prior to the Rams’ week 10 bye, but most of the issue was the result of an injury to Matthew Stafford. In games that Stafford has played in full, Nacua has been held below 70 yards just once, and he’s tallied at least 7 targets in all 9 of the Rams’ games this season. Stafford is practicing in full this week and is expected back, and Seattle ranks just 23rd in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 14th-most WR points per game. Don’t expect Puka to go back to putting up 140-yard outbursts regularly with Cooper Kupp back on the field, but the 30–40-yard outings we’ve seen the last couple of weeks won’t be the norm either. You should get Nacua back into lineups with confidence this week.
TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF (Wk. 11: vs. NYJ): Since Dawson Knox was hurt in week 7, Kincaid has rattled off 4 consecutive top-12 finishes, with 3 of them in the top-7. He’s logged at least 6 targets, 5 catches, and 50 yards in all 4 of those games, and found the end zone in 2 of them, and this week he faces a Jets defense that allows the 11th-most TE points per game. There may be some minor adjustments to the offense this week with OC Ken Dorsey fired and replaced by Joe Brady, but Brady was promoted from within and likely won’t take touches away from Kincaid. Dalton remains an easy top-8 option this week at tight end.
TE Sam LaPorta, DET (Wk. 11: vs. Chi.): LaPorta is coming off his worst fantasy game of the season after posting 4-40 on 5 targets in the shootout with the Chargers last weekend, but that was still good enough for a TE15 finish for the week. Backup tight end Brock Wright matched a season-high with 3 targets and found the end zone in that game, but their playing time numbers were not out of whack with what we’ve seen all season. I wouldn’t worry about it being a common occurrence the rest of the way. LaPorta should be safe to fire up as a TE1 again this week against Chicago. The Bears have faced 3 tight ends that currently rank in the top-12 for the season, and here’s how those 3 guys performed in that matchup – Travis Kelce (7-69-1), Logan Thomas (9-77-1), TJ Hockenson (6-50).
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
RB Keaton Mitchell, BAL (Wk. 11: vs. Cin.): Mitchell continued his blazing career start last weekend with a top-20 finish against a stingy Browns’ defense, but he did that on just 4 touches after head coach John Harbaugh said that he’d earned more work the week prior. The limited workload isn’t exciting, but the explosive plays are. Mitchell went for 30+ yards on 2 of his 4 touches last week, and Harbaugh is again saying that he’ll get the ball more this week. The matchup is a good one. The Bengals’ defense ranks just 29th in run defense DVOA, and with defensive end Sam Hubbard sidelined last week, they let Devin Singletary run for 150 yards on 30 carries, with 5 of those carries going for 10+ yards. Hubbard has been ruled out again. There’s a lot of risk here – Mitchell has only totaled 14 touches in his two breakout games – but there’s also a huge ceiling. If you have any RB starters you don’t feel great about this week, Mitchell would be a worthy replacement.
RB Tyjae Spears, TEN (Wk. 11: @Jax.): Last week Spears broke out of the receiving funk he’d been mired in since Will Levis took over at QB. He totaled just 13 receiving yards on 10 targets in Levis’ first two starts, but he posted 4-42 on 5 targets from Levis last weekend. He also hit a 60% snap share for the second consecutive week, and that playing time level should continue with the Titans a 6.5-point underdog in Jacksonville Sunday. We know what to expect from Spears in terms of weekly workload. He’s going to get 8-10 touches, usually split pretty evenly between rushing and receiving work, but there could be a little bit of extra receiving upside this week between the matchup and the likely trailing game script. The Jaguars have allowed 9+ PPR points from just receiving production to 5 different running backs in their last 4 games. We’ve already seen Spears finish as a top-30 PPR back in 5 of 9 games this year, and I like his chances of making it 6 of 10 this week, especially with so many top backs out with byes.
WR Zay Flowers, BAL (Wk. 11: vs. Cin.): Flowers got back on the right side of 50 scrimmage yards last weekend, finishing with 5-73 on 6 targets against a tough Cleveland defense. His WR32 finish for the week won’t set the world on fire, but it was still great to see him produce in a tough matchup after totaling just 30 yards in the two games prior. Cincinnati isn’t an easy matchup. They’re a middling defense against wide receivers, allowing the 15th-most points per game to the position, but they rank 7th in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing team’s WR1. Flowers has earned 6+ targets in 5 of his last 6 games, so volume should still be there this week even though the Bengals are easier to attack on the ground. That tougher individual matchup means I’d set my expectations closer to last week’s finish and be ecstatic if he exceeds it.
WR Rashee Rice, KC (Wk. 11: vs. Phi.): Rice hasn’t shown a huge ceiling this year, tallying more than 60 receiving yards just once on the season, but he’s finished as a PPR WR3 or better in 6 out of 9 games, and 4 of his last 5. He always seems to hit 50+ yards or find the end zone, and this week he squares off with a Philly defense that has allowed the most WR points per game in the league. Rice does much of his damage over the middle, and the Eagles rank 28th in pass defense DVOA on throws over the middle of the field. Of course, that’s where Travis Kelce does much of his damage as well, but there should be enough work in a potential shootout for Rice to put up a solid performance. The floor should be in that same usual range of 9-12 PPR points, but there’s a bit of extra ceiling this week in a great matchup.
WR Jordan Addison, MIN (Wk. 11: @Den.): The return of Justin Jefferson might be coming at just the right time for Addison. Jefferson is still listed as day-to-day and it isn’t confirmed that he’ll suit up this week, but if he does, Jefferson will likely draw shadow coverage from Patrick Surtain Jr. and keep him away from Addison. Surtain just held Stefon Diggs to 3-34 on Monday night, and Denver hasn’t allowed any receiver in their last 5 games to score more than 10 fantasy points. They still rank dead last in pass defense DVOA, and 25th in that stat on deep throws. 22% of Addison’s catches this season have gone for 20+ yards. Volume could still be a concern here this week. QB Josh Dobbs has peppered tight end TJ Hockenson with targets (42.6% target share from Dobbs so far), and obviously Justin Jefferson will still draw a healthy share even with Surtain covering him. How much does that leave for Addison? I’d still expect him to be around 6 targets, which hopefully will be enough to still be in the range of 4-60 with a possible TD. He’s certainly no more than a WR3 option this week, but I think he has a healthy enough floor to be worth a start this week. I wouldn’t fault you if you disagree, or have higher upside options you’d rather play.
WR Jayden Reed, GB (Wk. 11: vs. LAC): Reed’s playing time hasn’t been ideal in recent weeks – he’s been limited to below a 60% route participation rate in 4 of his last 5 games, but he’s finished the last 4 weeks as the PPR WR27, WR31, WR38, and WR12. He just keeps producing despite the limited playing time and this week gets to face a bad Chargers’ secondary. LA ranks 25th in pass defense DVOA and allows the 5th-most WR points per game. The Packers should have to throw to keep pace with a high-scoring Charger offense, and the Chargers’ defense has been ceding 315 passing yards per game. Add in the fact that Christian Watson could be inactive or limited, and this looks like another week where Reed should be able to finish in the WR3 range or better.
TE Luke Musgrave, GB (Wk. 11: vs. LAC): Musgrave’s target totals in the last few weeks have left a bit to be desired, but he’s put up 51 and 62 yards in the last two games, and this week faces a Charger defense that allows the most tight end receptions and receiving yards per game. I know it’s tough to rely on pass catchers in this offense with Jordan Love at QB. He’s thrown for less than 250 yards in all but 2 games this year, but the Chargers allow 315 passing yards per week. Musgrave has been targeted just 10 times in the last 3 games combined, but this feels like a spot where he has a good chance to crack the top-12 tight ends for the week.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
QB Will Levis, TEN (Wk. 11: @Jax.): Levis dazzled in his first NFL start back in week 8 with 4 TD passes, but the results in the 2 games since have left us a bit unsatisfied. Levis put up zero TDs in those two games and finished as the QB21 and QB26. You can forgive him for the dud against a solid Steelers’ defense, but the Bucs had been getting shredded by opposing passers leading up to last weekend’s game, and Levis was still no match for them. Tampa had given up 27 points per game to opposing QBs in the 4 games prior to holding Levis below 7. Can Levis get back on track this week? At first glance you may think he can – the Jaguars allow the 3rd-most QB points per game – but if you look closer it’s not as promising. The Titans have an implied total of just 16.5 points this week, Jacksonville ranks 6th in pass defense DVOA, and all of the QBs who have tallied 20+ points against the Jaguars are guys who could do it in any given week (Anthony Richardson, Mahomes, CJ Stroud, Josh Allen, and Brock Purdy). I wouldn’t put Levis in that group. Levis is probably still a top-20 option this week, but if you get anything more than 250 yards and 1 TD out of him, you should take it with a smile on your face.
QB Bryce Young, CAR (Wk. 11: vs. Dal.): I know, you’re probably seeing Young listed under a header that has the word ‘borderline’ in it and laughing. You’re not wrong that he hasn’t given us much reason to want to insert him into lineups, especially in a matchup against the Cowboys, who rank 5th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 12th-fewest QB points per game. Bryce is only worth consideration as a fringe QB2, and even in that context I’d rather not start him. Young has just one multi-TD game for the season, and he’s been held under 250 yards in every game this season. There just isn’t a ceiling to chase right now, even in a game where he should be trailing and throwing a lot. Hopefully Frank Reich taking over play calling duties again will help Young, but I’ll believe it when I see it.
QB Aidan O’Connell, LV (Wk. 11: @Mia.): Like Young above, O’Connell is only in play as a fringe QB2 in superflex leagues. There are some reasons for optimism for O’Connell. The Raiders are 12-point underdogs and should be throwing a lot, the team has been playing better since the switch to Antonio Pierce at head coach, and the Dolphins have allowed multiple TDs to each of the last 3 QBs they’ve faced. Still, only one of Miami’s last 5 opponents threw for more than 220 yards and O’Connell hasn’t thrown for multiple TDs in any of his 3 starts this season. He also offers no upside as a rusher. You’ll have to cross your fingers and hope for volume if you’re forced to start O’Connell.
RB Zach Charbonnet, SEA (Wk. 11: @LAR): Charbonnet has out-snapped Kenneth Walker III for 3 consecutive games now, but he’s not going to out-produce him when Walker gets all the goal line work. Charbs is playing in long down & distance situations and handling about 30% of the rushing attempts, which has worked out to about 7 touches per game in the last 3 contests. He finished as a top-30 PPR back in two of those weeks, but he averaged 10.6 and 7.3 yards per carry in those two games. I’m not saying he can’t do that against the Rams, who rank just 25th in run defense DVOA, but you don’t want to have to rely on that kind of efficiency from a running back who doesn’t have the breakaway speed that De’Von Achane and Keaton Mitchell do. If you’re stuck at running back because of byes or injuries, Charbonnet probably won’t kill you as an RB3, but I wouldn’t be counting on a breakout game.
RB Roschon Johnson, CHI (Wk. 11: @Det.): In 3 games since returning from a concussion, Johnson has averaged 7 touches per game while playing second fiddle to D’Onta Foreman, who averaged 17 touches in those games. Johnson has led the way on passing downs, out-targeting Foreman 11-to-4 in that span, but he’s put up just 3 yards per target with that work. Hopefully the return of Justin Fields will back defenses off just a little and open up more room for Johnson to run after the catch on those receptions, but the Bears are likely to get Khalil Herbert back this week too. Herbert practiced in full on Thursday, and his return to the lineup would muddy this backfield split even further. The Lions allow the 5th-fewest RB points per game, and Roschon hasn’t posted a top-30 PPR finish since week 1. This isn’t a week where I expect him to break that trend.
RB Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN (Wk. 11: vs. Min.): McLaughlin has touched the ball on 71.4% of his snaps in the last 3 weeks, but unfortunately, he’s averaging fewer than 10 snaps per game in that span. Javonte Williams is back into a workhorse role, and Samaje Perine is playing most of the 2-minute offense and long down & distance snaps, cutting McLaughlin out of the high-value touches. He’s made the most of limited opportunities, but his small workload has kept him a weekly RB4. That won’t change this week against a Viking defense that allows the 6th-fewest running back points per game and ranks 12th in run defense DVOA.
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA (Wk. 11: @LAR): Smith-Njigba kept up his recent string of solid performances last Sunday. He’s now hit at least 8.8 PPR points in 5-straight games and logged a yards per target mark of 9.0 or higher in all of them. He and Geno Smith appear to be on the same page now, and his games of 5 yards on 6 targets seem to be a thing of the past. JSN has logged 5 consecutive top-40 finishes and 4 consecutive in the top-35, so you know where the floor is. I just wouldn’t count on a ton of ceiling on top of that this week, as the Rams rank 3rd in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing WR3. If you’re comfortable with 8-9 PPR points from him, he’s well worth a start. If you’re hoping for much more than that, I’d consider other options.
WR Quentin Johnston, LAC (Wk. 11: @GB): The Chargers have slowly but surely started to get the ball into Johnston’s hands more often. His two best games of the season in catches and yards both came in the last 3 weeks, and he scored his first career TD last Sunday against the Lions. I’d expect progress will continue to be slow against a Green Bay defense that allows the 5th-fewest WR points per game. The biggest question here is whether or not Keenan Allen will be able to suit up. Allen suffered a shoulder injury against the Lions and is questionable for this game. If Allen plays, I’d treat QJ as a WR4 or WR5 option with some upside, but if Allen sits, he gets a boost up to the WR3 range. Jalen Guyton is not a lead WR talent, so an Allen absence could open the door for Johnston to serve as the WR1. Keep a close eye on the injury report if considering Johnston.
WR Michael Wilson, ARI (Wk. 11: @Hou.): The floor and ceiling for the Arizona passing game have both been raised with the return of Kyler Murray, but that doesn’t mean Wilson becomes an automatic weekly fantasy starter. Wilson finished with 3-36 on 6 targets in Kyler’s first start of the season as the passing game mostly flowed through Trey McBride and Rondale Moore, who accounted for 55% of the Cardinals’ targets. Don’t expect Moore to be the leading receiver every week, but the targets for McBride aren’t going away. This week’s opponent, the Texans, have allowed the 5th most points per game to tight ends, and the 12th fewest per game to receivers. McBride will get his targets this week, and Moore, Wilson and Maquise Brown will be jockeying for position for the rest. The Texans do rank just 28th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws, which plays to Wilson’s strengths, but I’d treat anything over 50 yards as a win here. Wilson is no more than a WR4 option.
WR Jonathan Mingo, CAR (Wk. 11: vs. Dal.): Mingo followed up his first career 60-yard game in week 8 with a total of just 4 catches for 25 yards in the next two games combined. The targets have been there, but the production hasn’t. Mingo was at his best as a downfield target in college at Ole Miss, and the Panthers just aren’t pushing the ball down the field. Mingo struggles to separate in the short area of the field, and his numbers illustrate that. He’s caught just over 50% of his targets for the year, and only 3 of his 23 catches on the year have gone for more than 11 yards. On top of that disappointing production, he faces a Dallas defense this week that allows the _th-fewest WR points per game. There’s no reason to expect a different outcome than what we’ve been seeing from Mingo in this tough matchup.
WR Trey Palmer, TB (Wk. 11: @SF): Palmer has emerged in recent weeks as a regular contributor in the Bucs’ passing game behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but that’s meant just 4.6 targets per game in the last 5 games, and more than 25 yards just twice. The 49ers’ defense looked like a different animal last week with Chase Young teaming with Nick Bosa to form a ferocious pass rush. San Francisco was able to generate pressure on 25% of Trevor Lawrence’s dropbacks last week despite blitzing on just 4 of them. Any time you can get pressure without blitzing, it makes it harder to find open receivers to get the ball too. You’re going to need a touchdown from Palmer to feel good about starting him, and thanks to that improved SF defense, the Bucs have an implied point total of just 15.25 points this week. That’s just not high enough to bet on a TD from an ancillary player.
TE Michael Mayer, LV (Wk. 11: @Mia.): Mayer found the end zone last week and finished as the TE7, but it’s now been 4 straight games with fewer than 20 receiving yards for the rookie. The Raiders may be throwing more this week against a Miami team that has an implied point total of nearly 30 points and allows the 10th-most TE points per game, so don’t be surprised if Mayer finds himself in the 30–40-yard range, but he’ll need a touchdown for you to feel good about starting him. That will be hard to count on since the Raiders have an implied point total of just 17.75.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
QB Tommy DeVito, NYG (Wk. 11: @Was.): With Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor both on IR, it should be DeVito under center again for the Giants. The matchup is a great one against a Commanders’ defense that allows the most QB points per game in the league and ranks 31st in pass defense DVOA, but how do you trust a QB who has averaged less than 5 yards per attempt so far this season when his own coaches don’t trust him to throw the ball? They’ve run the ball on about 80% of DeVito’s snaps when the Giants are leading, tied, or trailing by 7 points or less on the scoreboard, and they’ve run it just over 50% of the time when they’re trailing by 14+ points. It’s true that two of DeVito’s games have come against excellent defenses (Jets & Cowboys), but the play calling makes it clear that they’re trying to hide DeVito. If you’re extremely desperate, you could plug him in as a QB2 and hope that he manages to post a respectable game in a plus matchup – he has shown some rushing upside – but he’s arguably the QB28 for the week.
QB Tyson Bagent, CHI (Wk. 11: @Det.): Bagent’s run as the Bears’ starter may be over as Justin Fields looks set to return from a thumb injury this week. Even if he were to get another start this week, Bagent has finished outside the top-20 QBs in 3 of his 4 starts and faces a Detroit defense that ranks 10th in pass defense DVOA.
RB Emari Demercado, ARI (Wk. 11: @Hou.): Demercado has been out with a toe injury the last couple weeks, and the starting job he had at the time of the injury is no longer available with James Conner back in the lineup. With Conner back in week 10, the Cardinals’ backup running backs combined for just 3 touches, and there’s no guarantee that Demercado will get the RB2 role all to himself when he returns. He’s not worth consideration for now with Conner healthy.
RB Tank Bigsby, JAX (Wk. 11: vs. Ten.): Bigsby hasn’t reached 5 touches in any game since week 1, and he hasn’t logged a carry inside the 5-yard line since week 3. He’s just an Etienne handcuff.
WR Andrei Iosivas, CIN (Wk. 11: @Bal.): I whiffed on Iosivas last week, expecting him to play a bigger role with Tee Higgins sidelined. I wasn’t counting on anything more than a 40% route participation rate and a few targets, but he was at 26% and logged just 1 catch-less target. He’ll get a chance at a do-over this week with Higgins unlikely to play Thursday on a short week, but I’m not going back to the well this week in a tougher matchup. The Ravens rank 2nd in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 6th-fewest WR points per game. I wouldn’t be shocked if he puts up the game I expected for him last week this time around, but he’ll have to do it from my bench.
Update: Iosivas has been ruled out this week with a knee injury
WR Marvin Mims Jr., DEN (Wk. 11: vs. Min.): Mims has seen his playing time increase in recent weeks, logging route participation rates of 45%, 41%, and 76% in the last 3 games (his 3 highest marks of the season), but the targets and production haven’t increased with it. In the first 4 games of the season, Mims was targeted on 11 out of 39 routes run and totaled 242 receiving yards on those opportunities. In the last 5 games, he’s run 76 routes and totaled just 4 targets and 4 receiving yards. The Broncos seem to have forgotten about Mims’ game-breaking ability, and for now there’s not much reason to use him in any lineups. The 76% route participation rate is a great sign, but we need to see it start to translate into opportunities and production.
WR Tre Tucker, LV (Wk. 11: @Mia.): Tucker is no more than a deep ball dart throw this week. 3 of his 12 touches for the season have gone for 30+ yards, but he’s operating as the Raider’s WR4 behind Hunter Renfrow, and the Dolphins rank 10th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws. I wouldn’t count on Tucker getting a big play in this game, and he hasn’t topped 20 scrimmage yards in the games where he hasn’t hit a big play.
WR Jalin Hyatt, NYG (Wk. 11: @Was.): Hyatt’s fantasy momentum has all but vanished with Tommy DeVito under center. He’s totaled just 2 catches for 19 yards on 6 targets in the last 3 games. He’s a situational deep threat with a QB who can’t challenge defenses down the field. DeVito has just 3 completions of more than 13 yards on 54 passing attempts this season. This is a matchup where Hyatt would have some sneaky upside if he had DJ or Tyrod, as the Commanders rank 21st in pass defense DVOA on deep throws, but I can’t in good conscience tell you to roll those dice.
WR Jake Bobo, SEA (Wk. 11: @LAR): Bobo is yet to handle more than 3 touches in any game that the team’s top 3 receivers were all healthy for. He had a splash performance in week 7 with DK Metcalf sidelined, but he’s totaled just 36 receiving yards and a short rushing TD in 3 games since then and hasn’t hit a 30% route participation rate in any of those games. He’s a low volume TD dart throw option.
WR Tyler Scott, CHI (Wk. 11: @Det.): With the return of Equanimeous St. Brown from IR in week 10, Scott saw his route participation rate dip to just 35%. He wasn’t producing for fantasy when that number was over 60% (his season-high is 5.3 PPR points in a game), and he’s certainly less likely to produce now.
WR Cedric Tillman, CLE (Wk. 11: vs. Pit.): I might’ve liked Tillman as a sneaky DFS option this week if Deshaun Watson were going to be at QB, but Watson suffered a season-ending shoulder injury last weekend and it’ll be rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson instead. Tillman was all the way up to a 91% route participation rate last weekend against Baltimore, and while he didn’t turn that into any fantasy points, his opponent this week ranks 29th in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opponent’s WR3. With DTR under center, that likely won’t matter. Thompson-Robinson averaged just 3.4 yards per attempt in his only start this season and he leaned on Amari Cooper and David Njoku. I’d expect similar results here. If Tillman catches more than a couple passes it’ll be a pleasant surprise.
WR Jalen Brooks, DAL (Wk. 11: @Car.): Brooks came out of nowhere to tally 4 catches for 39 yards last Sunday after running just one route in the prior 6 games combined. Don’t be fooled into thinking he has a role now. He had just one catch before the Cowboys were up by 3 touchdowns, and just 2 catches before Cooper Rush entered the game in 4th quarter garbage time. He’s still the team’s WR5 who won’t see the field much when games are competitive.
TE Luke Schoonmaker, DAL (Wk. 11: @Car.): Schoonmaker keeps putting up his one target per game. He’s now earned just 9 targets in 9 games in limited playing time this season and caught just 3 of them. He’ll need a Jake Ferguson injury to be worth consideration.
Rookies on Byes in Week 11: RB Bijan Robinson, ATL, RB Kendre Miller, NO, WR Josh Downs, IND, WR Demario Douglas, NE
Rookies to sit who are injured or have had very limited or non-existent roles: RB Deuce Vaughn, DAL, RB Chase Brown, CIN, RB Eric Gray, NYG, RB Sean Tucker, TB, RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS, RB Elijah Dotson, LAC, RB Israel Abanikanda, NYJ, RB Christopher Brooks, MIA, WR Derius Davis, LAC, WR Rakim Jarrett, TB, WR Xavier Hutchinson, HOU, WR Ronnie Bell, SF, TE Darnell Washington, PIT, TE Payne Durham, TB
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, CLE (Wk. 11: vs. Pit.): I mention Thompson-Robinson here because it sounds like he’ll be the starter going forward, and there are a couple soft spots in the schedule where he may be a serviceable QB2 option (against Denver and Chicago). He’s worth picking up in deeper superflex leagues. I don’t feel great starting him this week though against a Pittsburgh defense that ranks 8th in pass defense DVOA. DTR threw 3 interceptions in his only start this year and threw for just 3.4 yards per attempt, and the Steelers are tied for 6th in the league in interceptions. There’s rushing upside here, but it’ll take a fair number of rushing yards for DTR to find his way to a useful fantasy game if he’s got to overcome a couple turnovers as well. I’d prefer not to have to use him as a QB2 this week.
RB DeWayne McBride, MIN (Wk. 11: @Den.): The Vikings’ injury woes at running back continued to mount last week as Alexander Mattison suffered a concussion, leaving the team with just Ty Chandler and Kene Nwangwu at the position to finish the game. Mattison is unlikely to get cleared in time to face the Broncos. Nwangwu is mostly a special teamer, so it’s possible that the Vikings elevate a running back from the practice squad right into the RB2 role behind Chandler. They did sign Myles Gaskin back onto that squad this week, but I’d expect McBride to be the likelier player to be elevated. I wouldn’t expect a huge workload for McBride if he’s activated, maybe 6-8 touches behind Chandler, but he should cost next to nothing in DraftKings showdown contests and gets a good matchup. Denver has been improved on defense in recent weeks, but they’ve still allowed the most running back points per game and were carved up for 177 yards on 21 carries on Monday night by James Cook and Latavius Murray.
WR Dontayvion Wicks, GB (Wk. 11: vs. LAC): Wicks has continued to linger around and be a headache for fantasy players who are starting the other GB receivers, but he has a chance to be more than that this week with Christian Watson questionable with a shoulder injury. Wicks has logged route participation rates above 45% in each of the last two weeks and put up top-36 PPR finishes in each game. This week the Packers face a Charger defense that allows the 5th-most WR points per game and hasn’t been able to stop anyone in the passing game this season. Wicks is still to volatile to trust as anything more than a WR5 if everyone is active, but he slides up into the WR3/4 range if Watson sits out.
WR Xavier Gipson, NYJ (Wk. 11: @Buf.): Gipson has quietly worked his way into significant playing time in the Jets’ offense. New York traded Mecole Hardman back to the Chiefs and demoted Randall Cobb (a healthy scratch the last two weeks), opening up the WR3 role behind Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard. Gipson has stepped into that void in the lineup, logging route participation rates of 62% and 74% in the last two weeks. That doesn’t mean a ton for most normal leagues - the WR3 in this passing game is only seeing a few targets per week, targets from Zach Wilson at that – but Gipson has value in deep leagues that give meaningful points for return yards. Xavier has averaged nearly 40 return yards per game for the season and 28 receiving yards per game in the last two weeks. This week has some extra upside for Gipson. The Bills have allowed the 3rd-most kick return yards and rank 29th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws. Gipson putting up a long catch or long kick return isn’t out of the question in this game.
WR A.T. Perry, NO (Wk. 11: Bye): Perry didn’t play his first offensive snap of the season until week 8, and didn’t earn his first target until last Sunday, but he may find himself starting in 3-wide receiver sets for the Saints for a while. Michael Thomas suffered a knee injury early on against Minnesota that the team has referred to as “fairly significant.” Perry stepped in to replace him and posted 2-38-1 on 4 targets, and more importantly was in a route on 89% of the team’s passing dropbacks. The Saints are on a bye this week, so Perry likely won’t be a high priority waiver claim for most teams, but Thomas has a track record of lingering injuries and will likely miss at least a couple of games. Perry will have plenty of target competition from Olave, Kamara, Shaheed and Taysom Hill, but the Saints are 3rd in the NFL in passing attempts, and any receiver in a full-time role in an offense that throws that much is worth a waiver claim in deeper leagues. Perry was a high-volume target in college at Wake Forest and will have a chance to make an impact.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
