Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve arrived at the part of the season a lot of fantasy managers dread: the bye weeks. The Saints, 49ers, Falcons and Jets all have the week off, so teams may be reaching a little deeper into the player pool for usable options, and there’s a chance that a rookie could help you fill in for a trusted starter like Deebo Samuel or Cordarrelle Patterson. Week 5 was a wild one for the rookie crop. Davis Mills stunned us all by finishing as the QB6 for the week and posting the best fantasy game by a rookie QB against New England of Bill Belichick’s entire run with the Pats. Trevor Lawrence also finished the week as a QB1, while Trey Lance posted a reasonable debut in which he rushed for 89 yards. The rest of the rookie QBs each posted clunkers, none more disappointing than Zach Wilson against the Falcons in London.
Kadarius Toney, Kyle Pitts and Ja’Marr Chase were the stories of the week among the skill position rookies. Toney and Pitts each posted breakout games that landed them at the WR7 and TE3 spots for the week respectively, while Chase kept doing what he’s been doing all season. Ja’Marr has been doing things that only he and Randy Moss have done to start their careers at such a young age. Can these guys keep it up? What other rookies can step up in week 6? You’ve come to the right place to find out.
A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game references and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 6…
Rookies to Start:
RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 6: vs. Sea.): Harris finally had the kind of breakout rushing game that we’ve been waiting for in week 5, torching what had been a good Denver run defense for 122 yards and a score. The usage continues to be elite (89% of the team RB touches to date), and he gets a tasty matchup in week 6. The Seahawks have allowed the 3rd-most RB points per game so far this season, and Harris has finished as a top-10 back in 4 straight weeks. There’s no need to overthink this one. Harris deserves consideration for the captain spot in showdown lineups for this game.
WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 6: @Det.): Speaking of not overthinking things, Chase has topped a dozen fantasy points every single week and posted 3 top-15 performances in his first 5 games, and this week he gets to face a Detroit defense that ranks 27th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat. Chase’s specialty thus far has been pulling in the deep throws, and it’s an area where Detroit has struggled defensively. He has a league leading four receptions of 40+ yards and his average reception comes 14.2 yards downfield, the 4th highest mark in the league among qualified receivers. The average air yards per completion against the Lions is 9.15 yards. Every other defense in the league has an average below 8. My only concerns for Chase this week are that the Bengals might not have to throw the ball a lot, and that Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd may get some squeaky wheel treatment after both failed to reach 40 yards last week, but those are minor concerns. This week’s matchup really is perfect for Chase. He’s a top-15 option in Detroit.
WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 6: vs. TB): Tampa Bay’s defense this year has been the definition of the phrase ‘pass funnel.’ Opposing offenses have abandoned trying to run against the Bucs stout front early in games, dropping back to pass on nearly 71% of their plays (for context, the Bucs have the most pass-heavy offense in the league and drop back to throw on 69.7% of their plays). All of that passing by their opponents has led to some big fantasy days for wide receivers against the Bucs. Tampa has allowed the 2nd-most WR points per game this season and has coughed up at least 275 passing yards to every team they’ve faced so far. For the season, Smith has commanded 23% of the Eagles’ passing targets and 41% of the air yards. One major area the Bucs have struggled is in allowing yards after the catch, and that isn’t an area where DeVonta has shined, but this game still has blow-up potential for the rookie. He should be treated as a WR2 this week and may be worth paying up for in showdown slates for Thursday night.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 6: vs. Dal.): Jones posted another efficient performance in week 5 that doesn’t light up fantasy box scores. He did throw one interception but completed over 76% of his passes and posted his highest yards per attempt mark of the season at 7.7. He’s now completed over 73% of his passes in 4 of his 5 games and thrown for 270+ yards in 3 of them. This week he faces a Dallas defense that has spent a lot of time playing with the lead and has coughed up a lot of passing yards as a result. The Giants were the first team all season to not throw for 300 yards against them…finishing with 294. They’ve given up crooked yardage totals each and every week, but also have 2 interceptions each and every week. It’s created an odd situation where they rank 7th in pass defense DVOA but have allowed the 4th-most QB points per game. Jones, like most QBs the Cowboys have faced, will likely have to throw a lot to keep pace. If he can avoid the turnovers that have plagued other QBs to face Dallas, he should finish as a strong QB2 this week.
RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 6: vs. GB): With news breaking that Damien Williams was added to the Covid reserve list on Thursday, Herbert suddenly finds himself positioned for a strong opportunity against Green Bay this week. Tarik Cohen isn’t walking through that door any time soon for Chicago, so Herbert likely will play a workhorse role with Ryan Nall mixing in on occasion. Green Bay is a burnable run defense, ranking 29th in run defense DVOA. They’ve been able to mask that issue with positive game scripts that keep their opponents throwing, but with Bill Lazor calling plays the Bears have had at least 16 RB rush attempts in 8 of 9 games, and 25+ attempts in 6 of 9 since the start of last season. I don’t expect them to put this game on Justin Fields’ shoulders. Herbert’s not much of a pass catcher, but he’s a virtual lock for 15+ carries in a solid matchup. He’s a low-end RB2 this week.
RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 6: vs. LV): Melvin Gordon had a new ailment pop up on the injury report this week, now dealing with a hip injury in addition to a leg contusion he was dealing with last week, but there’s no reason to think he’s going to miss this game. That likely means he and Williams will continue to split the backfield work evenly, making both uninspiring flex options that you hope get into the end zone. The Raiders do allow the 9th-most RB points per game, and Williams has been the more impressive Denver back over the past couple weeks, so Williams is at least in play. He could be a very strong option if Denver is able to play from ahead, but it’s worth noting that since 2010 interim head coaches who take over in-season are 13-9 in their first game at the helm. That may not sound like a great winning percentage, but keep in mind that most of those teams were far below .500 for the season. There is a noticeable boost in that first game. Treat Javonte as an RB3 who has a reasonable floor in any case, and RB2 upside this week if the game script is in Denver’s favor.
WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 6: @Jax.): The expected return of Tua Tagovailoa should be a positive development for Waddle this week. Waddle’s season-high receiving mark of 61 yards was set in his only full game with Tua at QB, and that was the only game where he found the end zone as well. With Brissett under center, Waddle’s aDOT was around 4 yards, limiting the damage he could do without big volume. That mark was at 9.8 yards in week 1. It’s a small sample, but Tua showed a willingness to throw down the field that week that we just haven’t seen from Brissett. The matchup is a good one this week. Jacksonville ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA, and DeVante Parker may be sidelined again. That could add up to a lot of volume for Waddle. If Tua doesn’t return this week, treat the rookie as a dicey PPR flex option. If he does, I really like Waddle’s chances to top 60 yards for the second time this year and finish as a WR3 or better.
WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 6: vs. LAR): Toney broke out in a big way in week 5, piling up 10 catches and 189 yards on 13 targets with most of New York’s other pass catchers sidelined. It was the kind of performance where you can’t put the genie back in the bottle. Toney, long mocked as a terrible 1st-round pick by GM Dave Gettleman & the Giants, showed that he’s too good to be sent back to the bench. It remains to be seen how the Giants will divvy up the WR opportunities as the rest of the WRs return, but Toney is going to be involved. This week, the Giants may get Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton back, so I wouldn’t look for Toney to be targeted 13 times again. He also may have to tangle with Jalen Ramsey a bunch in this one, and his starting QB is likely to be Mike Glennon. With the bye weeks hitting, Toney could be considered for a WR3 spot in lineups despite those things working against him, but you should come away happy if he gives you a repeat of what he did two weeks ago (6 catches for 78 yards).
WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 6: @Cle.): The Cardinals flashed some creativity with Moore last week, getting him 3 rushing attempts to go along with his 6 targets, and Rondale posted his best game since week 2. He still hasn’t played more than 50% of the offensive snaps in any game though, and that additional usage last week could’ve been to help lighten the load on banged up running back Chase Edmonds. Moore may see his snaps increase if the Cards opt to play more 4-WR sets with TE Maxx Williams now out for the year, and speed has burned the Browns secondary this season. Two of the top-3 WR performances against them this year were by Tyreek Hill and Brandin Cooks, and Moore fits a similar size/speed mold. He’s a boom-or-bust WR3 this week in Cleveland.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 6: vs. Mia.): Lawrence has shown signs of improvement in recent weeks after piling up turnovers in his first 3 starts, but he’s not seeing enough volume to be trusted as an auto-start in 2-QB leagues. He threw the ball 51 times in the opener as Jacksonville chased points against the Texans, but he’s attempted fewer than 35 passes in every game since and averaged just 204 passing yards per game in those contests. He’s padded his fantasy production with rushing scores in each of the past two weeks, but those are hard to rely on. Miami isn’t the type of team that I’d expect to blow the Jaguars out, so I’d expect Lawrence’s volume to be modest again. The Dolphins haven’t been a good defense against QBs, allowing the 6th-most points per game to the position, but only Tom Brady (QB3) and Derek Carr (QB11) have finished higher than the QB20 against Miami in any individual game. I’d treat Lawrence as a low-end QB2 for fantasy this week.
QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 6: vs. GB): Through his first 3 NFL starts, Justin Fields has averaged just 19 passing attempts and 144 passing yards per game. He’s thrown just 1 total touchdown and run for 25 total yards. Those aren’t the kind of numbers you can trust in a fantasy lineup, even though there are things working in his favor this week. The Bears are a 4.5-point underdog, so it’s likely that Fields will have to throw more than we’ve seen in the last 3 weeks, and the Packers are still without top cover man Jaire Alexander. They allowed 20 fantasy points to Joe Burrow last week in their first game without Alexander. It wouldn’t shock me if Fields posts his best fantasy day of the year, but if he’s not going to use his legs and give you a rushing floor, you can’t count on getting enough points from his arm to warrant starting him.
RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 6: vs. Min.): Christian McCaffrey’s absence seems almost certain to end this week, which means Hubbard goes back to handcuff status. There’s a chance the Panthers don’t give CMC a full workload the first game back out there, but I wouldn’t want to start Chuba in a part time role, even against a suspect Vikings defense. Minnesota has allowed the 12th-most RB points per game and rank 20th in run defense DVOA. They’re a good matchup for running backs, but not a great one. If CMC is held out another week, treat Hubbard like a borderline RB2/RB3.
RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 6: vs. Ari.): I only mention Felton at all because Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb aren’t practicing as of Thursday. If by some chance both players sit, I’d expect D’Ernest Johnson to handle the bulk of the backfield work, with Felton mixing in on passing downs. The Cardinals have allowed the 8th-fewest RB points per game, and fewer than 5 receptions per game to the position. I’d have a hard time convincing myself to get Felton into lineups anywhere unless I were desperate, even if both starters are out.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 6: vs. Dal.): Stevenson went from being a healthy scratch 3 weeks in a row to handling 11 carries in week 5. He didn’t do much with them, logging just 23 yards. One positive to take away for Stevenson is that he, unlike his teammate Damien Harris, did not fumble the ball away at the 1-yard line last week. It was the second fumble of the year at a critical moment by Harris, and there is no way Belichick allows him to continue to get those kinds of carries if that continues to happen. Harris was dealing with chest & rib injuries in that game that may have contributed to Rhamondre’s playing time, but he seems unlikely to miss week 6 despite not practicing Wednesday. It was reported by Ian Rapoport after the game that Harris “checked out ok.” If Harris is active, Stevenson is a bad option against a Dallas defense that has allowed the 7th-fewest RB points per game and ranks 8th in run defense DVOA. Devontae Booker is the only running back all year to get into the end zone against them. If Harris is inactive, I would view Rhamondre as more of a desperation flex play in non-PPR leagues. The Patriots should be chasing points against an explosive Dallas offense, so this shapes up to be a Brandon Bolden week.
RB Larry Rountree III, LAC (Wk. 6: @Bal.): After logging 11 carries in week 4, Rountree didn’t play a single offensive snap in week 5. There were no reports of any injury or disciplinary reasons he was sidelined, so it appears that he’s simply lost the backup job to Joshua Kelley for the time being. There’s no reason to hold him as a handcuff in deeper leagues right now.
RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 6: @Det.): Evans did see a season-high number of snaps in week 5 with Joe Mixon on a snap count due to injury, but that amounted to just 7 snaps for the rookie. You can’t start him in any weeks where Mixon is active, no matter how deep the league.
RB Gary Brightwell, NYG (Wk. 6: vs. LAR): I mention Brightwell because Saquon Barkley is expected to be sidelined for at least 1 week, possibly longer. That doesn’t mean Brightwell is worth stashing. He’s arguably still 3rd on the backfield depth chart behind Devontae Booker and Elijhaa Penny. Leave him on the waiver wire.
WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 6: vs. LAC): I’ve mentioned Bateman as a stash each of the last two weeks, so hopefully you’ve already gone ahead and stashed him. If he’s still available in your league, he’s still worth picking up, but this is not a great week to expect a strong debut. The Chargers have allowed the 2nd-fewest WR points per game and rank 11th in pass defense DVOA. Bateman still costs the minimum on DraftKings, so if you want to live dangerously in a limited slate DFS tournament, feel free to roll the dice. It’s not something I would do though. I expect he’ll be eased back and faces a tough defense in his first game back.
WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 6: @Ind.): Even if he’s active this week, Nico’s unlikely to be useful for fantasy purposes. I’d expect Houston to ease him back in after he missed the last 3 weeks with injury, and he only played 55% of the offensive snaps and was targeted just 3 times in the 1 full game he did play. Chris Moore played well enough last week that he deserves to continue seeing snaps, and those snaps aren’t coming from Brandin Cooks. The Colts are a plus matchup for wide receivers, allowing the 8th-most points per game to the position, but Collins shouldn’t be put into lineups against them this week.
WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 6: vs. Min.): Marshall has reached 30 receiving yards just once all season despite playing more than half the offensive snaps each week. Minnesota is ranked an impressive 6th in pass defense DVOA. This isn’t the week to expect Marshall to get on track.
WR Josh Palmer, LAC (Wk. 6: @Bal.): Palmer saw a season-high 3 targets in week 5, but he’s yet to play more than 25% of the offensive snaps in a game. He’s not on the fantasy radar right now.
TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 6: vs. Sea.): Freiermuth and Eric Ebron continue to split the tight work in the Steelers’ offense, minimizing the chance for either player to be useful for fantasy right now. Big Ben is targeting the position on less than 15% of his attempts, and the Freiermuth/Ebron duo has combined for just 4 red zone targets in 5 games. The Seahawks are hardly a formidable defensive matchup, but Freiermuth isn’t seeing consistent enough usage to be trusted as a TE streamer right now. He’s been targeted 3 times in the last 2 weeks.
TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 6: vs. Min.): Tremble has found the end zone in 2 of the last 3 weeks, but he’s yet to play 40% of the offensive snaps in any game this season and has seen more than 1 target in a game just once. The Vikings have allowed the 10th-fewest TE points per game and allowed zero touchdowns to the position. Steer clear of Tremble.
Rookies on bye in week 6: QB Trey Lance, SF, QB Zach Wilson, NYJ, RB Elijah Mitchell, SF, RB Trey Sermon, SF, RB Michael Carter, NYJ, WR Elijah Moore, NYJ, TE Kyle Pitts, ATL
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 6: @Ind.): You’re probably playing with fire if you play Mills in fantasy lineups the week after he put up what may end up being his best performance of the season, but he’s in a sneaky spot to have another strong game in week 6. The Colts have allowed the 3rd-most QB points per game and rank 30th in pass defense DVOA. They’ve also allowed multiple TD passes to every quarterback they’ve faced so far. No team has allowed a higher passer rating than the Colts, and they may be without standout corner Xavier Rhodes in this game as he’s in the concussion protocol. The Texans may have Nico Collins back as well, giving Mills another weapon to work with. It’ll take some cojones to start Mills; he’s a risky play, but one that could pay off. I wouldn’t start him in 1-QB leagues, but he’s an upside QB2 option this week. I’d be ringing the bell for him a lot harder if there were more prominent QBs on bye this week.
RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 6: vs. TB): It’s been hard to rely on anything when it comes to the Philadelphia Eagles’ backfield usage so far this season, but this is a nice spot for Gainwell. The Bucs have stifled opposing rushers, allowing fewer than 40 yards on the ground per game, but have allowed the most RB receptions per game and 4th most RB receiving yards in the league. Gainwell has shared the receiving work with Miles Sanders, but if Philly falls in a hole expect to see a lot of Gainwell. He’s played 93% of the 2-minute offense snaps and has been targeted on more than a quarter of his routes run. If he’s on the field as much as I expect, 5+ receptions seem likely.
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 6: vs. Cin.): St. Brown has emerged over the last two weeks as the most-targeted option in the Lions’ WR room, and the injury to Quintez Cephus last week should strengthen his hold on that role going forward. This week he faces off with the Bengals, who allow the 15th-most WR points per game. He spends the vast majority of his time in the slot, where he’ll face off with Bengals’ slot corner Mike Hilton. Hilton has allowed a 76% completion percentage and 103.5 passer rating on throws into his coverage. No wide receiver is truly trustworthy in this offense, but St. Brown is in play in PPR leagues as a WR3/Flex option in this one.
WR Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 6: vs. KC): If there was ever a time for Brown to get on track, this is it. His early season usage before getting hurt in week 4 left a lot to be desired, but this offense is missing Logan Thomas, Curtis Samuel, and Cam Sims this week, and Brown seems to be on track to return to the lineup. Brown’s targets have been of the downfield variety (14.2-yard aDOT for the season), but those downfield throws haven’t connected. This week he faces off with a Kansas City defense that has allowed a league-high eight 40-yard completions and is coming off a week where they coughed up several deep balls to the Bills. Washington is a touchdown underdog, so passing volume should be plentiful. Brown’s deep ball skills in this matchup make him a quality dart throw in DFS tournaments at just $3,300 on DraftKings. He’s probably not trustworthy enough to use in season-long leagues unless you’re desperate.
TE Kylen Granson, IND (Wk. 6: vs. Hou.): Granson isn’t someone you should be running out to add in season-long leagues. He played just 8 snaps on Monday Night Football against the Ravens in week 6 after seeing 30 snaps the week before. The notable thing here is that he out-targeted Jack Doyle in both games despite playing many fewer snaps this past week. The Colts looked to get the ball into Granson’s hands when he was on the field, and Frank Reich isn’t afraid to use a lot of 2-tight end sets. Houston allows more tight end points per game than any other team in the league and has allowed scores to backups Tommy Tremble & Chris Manhertz, and 40+ receiving yards to James O’Shaughnessy & Harrison Bryant. Granson costs just $800 for the showdown slate on DraftKings, and I have a hunch he surprises in this one.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re now a third of the way through the NFL season, and by now you have an idea if your team is a contender or has some work to do to get back in the hunt. Week 7 could be a crucial one for fantasy leagues. We’ve seen weeks with 6 teams on a bye before, but all the high-end fantasy players sitting in week 7 have had many in the fantasy community dubbing this week the ‘bye-pocalypse’, ‘bye-nado’, ‘bye-mageddon’, ‘bye-palooza’, and maybe my personal favorite, ‘bye-gnarok.’ Finding a way to navigate all the byes and field a lineup that can still compete and win this week is a challenge, but a win this week will feel extra rewarding. There are plenty of rookies who can help you shore up your incomplete lineups. Pretty much anyone with a pulse is in play this week, so some of the borderline and sleeper options may be deeper names than you’re used to seeing there. You may need a shower after you set your lineup this week, but hopefully some of my words can make you feel less gross about starting some of these guys.
A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game references and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 7…
Rookies to Start:
RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 7: @NYG): Hubbard has been functioning as the Panthers’ lead back for 4 games now, and he’s topped 65 scrimmage yards and touched the ball at least 14 times in all of them, and head coach Matt Rhule came out this week and said the Panthers need to run the ball more. Hubbard hasn’t been great in the passing game and has been ceding 3rd down snaps to Royce Freeman, but that hasn’t been a problem for his fantasy performances. He’s handled 53 of the team’s 60 RB rushing attempts in the 3 games McCaffrey has missed. As long as game scripts are at least neutral, Hubbard should get plenty of volume. The Panthers’ next 3 opponents are the Giants, Falcons and Patriots, none of whom have more than 2 wins. This week’s opponent, the Giants, have allowed the 7th-most RB points per game and rank 27th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. Hubbard is a top-15 RB option this week in this plus matchup.
WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 7: @Bal.): In case you aren’t already treating him as such, Chase has officially ascended to must-start territory. Through 6 games, he’s topped 75 receiving yards and/or scored a touchdown in every game this season. The Ravens allow the 7th-fewest WR points per game, and rank a middling 16th in pass defense DVOA, but you should be starting Chase regardless of matchups. There’s bound to be a down week or two at some point, but he has 20-point upside each and every week.
WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 7: vs. Atl.): Waddle has now played in two full games with Tua Tagovailoa as his starting QB. He’s seen a 24.3% target share in those games and topped 16 PPR points in each. It’s true that most of those targets came last Sunday with DeVante Parker sidelined, but the Dolphins’ tight ends were targeted 15 times in that game as well. Assuming he plays, I’d expect most of Parker’s workload this week to come from Mike Gesicki and Durham Smythe. The Falcons allow the 8th-most WR points per game, and Waddle is clearly going to see targets. He’s a high-floor WR3 in PPR leagues this week.
TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 7: @Mia.): Pitts had the breakout game we were all waiting for in London heading into Atlanta’s bye week, but will he continue to produce at a high level with Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage returning this week? That remains to be seen, but you have to get him into the lineup anyway. The rookie has seen 6 or more targets in 4 of his 5 games this season and gets to face a Miami defense that is allowing the 16th-most TE points per game. It isn’t a cake matchup, but it isn’t a tough one either. Pitts should be a top-10 TE play this week.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 7: vs. NYJ): My listing of Jones as a borderline rookie applies only to 2-QB and superflex leagues. You shouldn’t be considering him in any 1-QB formats. The Jets have allowed the 4th-fewest QB points per game, but that’s mostly because they haven’t played many high-powered offenses, and teams have scored on the ground rather than through the air against them. They’ve allowed 7 rushing TDs, and just 4 through the air. The Jets have forced just 1 QB turnover through 5 games and rank a middling 16th in pass defense DVOA. They’re the only team Mac Jones failed to throw a TD against so far, and I’d expect him to correct that this week. Don’t expect a high-volume effort from Mac, but he’s probably going to finish the week as a mid-range QB2.
RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 7: vs. Ind.): Week 5 seemingly put to rest any debates about what the 49ers backfield split is going to look like going forward. Mitchell has a stranglehold on the early down work (he handled 75% of the non-Trey Lance rushing attempts against Arizona), and Kyle Juszczyk will mix in on passing downs and play some traditional fullback. Trey Sermon was on the field for just 2 offensive snaps in week 5. The Colts aren’t an easy team to run against, ranking 1st in run defense DVOA, but the 49ers are going to run the football, and with Jimmy G back under center, the bulk of those attempts will likely go to Mitchell. He’s a better play in non-PPR formats, but his expected volume in the bye-palooza week makes him a solid RB3 option against the Colts.
RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 7: @Cle.): Williams continues to make at least one “Wow” play seemingly every week, but it still hasn’t pushed him ahead of Melvin Gordon on the depth chart. The rookie has been making the most of his opportunities, averaging nearly 70 scrimmage yards per game in his last 4 outings with at least 3 receptions each week, and the Broncos have a chance to control the game script this week with the Browns starting most of their second-string offense. Despite that situation, I’d pump the brakes before getting too excited about Javonte. The Browns rank 3rd in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 2nd-fewest RB points per game, and Williams is still splitting the backfield with Melvin Gordon. He’s a reasonable fill-in if you’re fighting through byes, but I would treat him as an RB3 option with limited upside in what should be an ugly game. This game has the lowest over/under total of the week.
RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 7: @TB): Herbert worked wonders for fantasy managers who rolled him out in starting lineups last week, finishing with 112 scrimmage yards and a touchdown, but you may be playing with fire if you decide to get him in your lineup again this week. I originally expected Damien Williams to return this week, but it turns out that he’s unvaccinated and probably going to miss another game on the Covid list. Tampa Bay has allowed just 2 running backs to reach 50 yards on the ground against them all year, and none to reach 70, so Herbert is unlikely to pile up a big rushing yardage day. They’ve also allowed just 1 RB rushing score for the season. If you start Herbert, you’re counting on him getting some receiving work, which Dame’s absence opens the door for. The Bucs do allow 7.5 running back receptions per game. Herbert didn’t see much receiving work in college and saw just an 11% target share as the lead back last week, but he was in a route on 80% of the Bears’ pass plays. The bye-palooza, and Williams’ expected absence make Herbert an upside RB3 this week. If you’re deciding between Herbert and Javonte Williams, Javonte probably has a safer floor, but Herbert has a higher ceiling.
RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 7: @NE): This is probably not a game you want to target for fantasy, but Carter has handled 55% of the Jets’ RB touches over the last 4 games, and his best game of the season so far came against these Patriots in week 2, where he totaled 88 scrimmage yards on 13 touches. Don’t get carried away here. The Patriots rank 9th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 13th-fewest RB points per game, so the matchup isn’t great, but Carter is in play with so many byes across the league this week. He’s a low-end RB3 option in Foxboro.
WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 7: @LV): Smith was a big letdown last week in a potential blow-up spot against Tampa Bay, and there’s no guarantee he bounces back in this one. I do expect his volume to get back to the level we’ve grown accustomed to – week 6 was the first time all season that Smith was targeted fewer than 6 times – but this matchup isn’t an easy one. The Raiders have allowed the 6th-fewest WR points per game, and Smith will spend a lot of his day squaring off with Casey Hayward. Hayward has proven to be one of the best free agent signings of the offseason, allowing just 3.2 yards per target and a 51.3 passer rating on throws into his coverage. He also boasts Pro Football Focus’ highest coverage grade among all cornerbacks this season. Smith is still in play as a WR3/4 option, especially with all the byes this week. He won’t be matched up with Hayward on every play. Just keep in mind that his floor isn’t all that safe this week.
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 7: @LAR): The ‘Sun God’ posted his worst fantasy performance of October last Sunday, but it was the 3rd consecutive week where he’s seen at least 7 targets and hauled in 5+ receptions. His passing game role has been consistent, and should be again, even in this tough matchup. The Rams rank 4th in pass defense DVOA but have allowed the 15th-most WR points per game. Garbage time has helped teams put up passing points against them, and it’s hard to imagine the Lions not having a lot of garbage time. The Rams are favored by 15 points in this one. St. Brown may spend some time matched up with Jalen Ramsey, but I wouldn’t let that scare me away from him if you’re considering starting him. I’d view ARSB as a floor play WR4 in PPR leagues.
WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 7: vs. Cin.): Bateman made his return from IR last week, and immediately stepped into a 22% target share in his first game back. I wouldn’t expect that to hold every week, but I expect him to carve out a role as one of the top-3 pass catchers on this team with Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown. Cincinnati isn’t an easy WR matchup. The Bengals allow the 12th-fewest WR points per game and rank 8th in pass defense DVOA, but both of those marks are worse than the Charger defense he faced last week. I’d look for another 5-7 targets for Bateman this week and think he’s an upside WR4 option if you’re hurting for WR help.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 7: @NE): Wilson has had two weeks to shake off his miserable day in London against the Falcons, but you can’t look to him as an option this week even in 2-QB leagues. I’d love to see the BYU product post a bounce back game in Foxboro, but he threw 4 interceptions the last time he faced the Patriots and has been picked at least once in all 5 of his starts. I’d be more inclined to start Case Keenum tonight if I was desperate in a 2-QB league rather than roll Wilson out in any lineups.
QB Davis Mills, ARI (Wk. 7: @Ari.): Mills has started 4 games so far this season. One of them was a magical performance against the New England Patriots where he topped 300 yards and threw 3 TDs on his way to nearly 25 fantasy points. In the other three he’s averaged just over 6 fantasy points per game. The Cardinals rank 2nd in pass defense DVOA, and the Texans have a pathetic implied total of just 14.5 points. Anything over 10 fantasy points should be seen as a win for Mills in this one.
QB Trey Lance, SF (Wk. 7: vs. Ind.): If you were thinking of starting Lance this week, you probably won’t get the chance. Trey is expected to be out this week dealing with an injury suffered against the Cardinals in week 5. Expect Jimmy Garoppolo to get the start.
RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 7: @LV): Gainwell has some upside against a Vegas defense that has allowed the 13th-most RB points per game, but I don’t see how you can roll him out in lineups this week after he saw just 28 snaps, 2 carries, and 5 targets in the last 2 weeks combined. Offensive coordinator Shane Steichen said this week that they need to get Miles Sanders more involved in the offense. That comment isn’t reassuring if you were hoping Gainwell’s usage would tick back up this week. I’d keep him parked on the bench, even in the bye-pocalypse.
RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 7: vs. Den.): The Browns have officially ruled out Nick Chubb for Thursday night’s game against the Broncos, and have placed Kareem Hunt on IR, so it’ll be Felton and D’Ernest Johnson left to man the Browns’ backfield this week. If you’re looking for a Browns’ running back as a fill-in for a player on a bye, D’Ernest is the one you want. Felton has played more snaps than Johnson this season, but he’s spent just 2 of them lined up in the backfield, and 31 of them lined up in the slot or out wide. Johnson, on the other hand, has spent all of his snaps in the backfield, and handled the running back snaps after Hunt went down last weekend. Denver looks like a daunting run defense on paper, allowing the 5th-fewest RB points per game, but they’ve allowed over 50 scrimmage yards and a touchdown to 4 different backs in the last 3 games. The bulk of that damage has come on the ground, and D’Ernest figures to see the bulk of the rushing work, with Felton likely handling passing downs. The Broncos allow the fewest RB receptions, and 2nd-fewest RB receiving yards per game. Felton is only worth considering if you’re very desperate in a full PPR league.
RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 7: @Bal.): Don’t Chase last week’s points with Evans. The rookie had his best game as a pro and doubled his total snap count for the season, but most of those snaps and 5 of his 7 touches came with the Bengals leading by 17+ points. He did manage to find the end zone on his first touch of the game, and his increased opportunity is undoubtedly a good sign, but this is still Joe Mixon’s backfield. The Bengals are highly unlikely to post another blowout this week against the Ravens. If Evans continues to see an increased workload on passing downs, there is a sliver of hope for him. The Ravens allow the 2nd most RB receiving yards per game. I wouldn’t count on more than 3 receptions or so for the rookie though.
RB Trey Sermon, SF (Wk. 7: vs. Ind.): Sermon has been on the field for three snaps in the games this season that Elijah Mitchell has been active for. While I expect him to play at least a little more than that going forward, he’s not seeing the field enough for consideration in your fantasy lineups, even in a week like this.
WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 7: vs. Hou.): Moore played his highest snap share of the season in week 6, but he continued to show that he’s going to be a boom-or-bust option from week to week. He’s averaged 93 scrimmage yards in his three ‘boom’ games, and 22 per game in his 3 ‘bust’ performances. Pretty much every offensive weapon on the Cardinals is capable of a boom game against the hapless Texans, as Arizona is an 18.5-point favorite with a 33-point implied total, but I would still bet against a big game from Moore. The Cardinals have been creative in getting Rondale involved, giving him 8 rushing attempts in the last 3 weeks, but the ways the Cards deploy him are less likely to lead to big things this week. 85% of Rondale’s targets in the passing game have been 9 yards or fewer downfield, and more than half of them have been behind the line of scrimmage. The Texans have allowed the 5th-fewest yards after the catch in the league. Rondale has long odds of posting a big yardage day on the type of targets he’s been seeing. He’s a volatile WR4 option in deeper leagues this week.
WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 7: vs. Car.): As of now, I’m operating under the assumption that Toney isn’t going to play against the Panthers. He played last week despite a ‘questionable’ tag and didn’t make it through the first quarter before being ruled out for the day. The Giants would be wise to give him the week off and hope he’s able to come back at full strength in week 8. If he does suit up this week, he’s in play as an upside WR4 option against a Panther defense that allows 10th-fewest WR points per game.
WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 7: @NE): Moore is going to post a big game eventually, but to-date he’s only reached 25 or more receiving yards one time. That one time was against these Patriots in week 2, but he finished with just 4 catches for 47 yards on 8 targets in that game, hardly a useful fantasy line. Moore missed week 4 with a concussion before returning for the London game in week 5, and he saw just 2 targets in that game with Jamison Crowder back in the mix. It was the first time Moore and Crowder both played in the same game. I’m going to need to see him be more active than that with Crowder around before I consider Elijah for lineups again.
WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 7: @Ari.): Collins was back in action last weekend after being activated from injured reserve, and he actually posted a respectable game with 4 catches and 44 yards on 6 targets. Collins shared playing time with Chris Moore and Chris Conley behind Brandin Cooks. I wouldn’t look to get him into lineups, but he’s worth monitoring to see if those targets continue going forward. He could even be a sneaky dart throw this week for limited slate DFS tournaments. The Cardinals have a solid pass defense that ranks 2nd in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve given up the 11th-most WR points per game thanks to a lot of garbage time against them. Arizona has allowed 3 WRs to score 16+ fantasy points against them this year – KJ Osborn, Van Jefferson, and Donovan Peoples-Jones. It hasn’t been the primary receivers who have put up the biggest days against the Cardinals.
WR Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 7: @GB): Brown had his biggest opportunity to make an impact of the season so far against the Chiefs last week and failed to do so. Kansas City has been bleeding big plays in the passing game, but Taylor Heinicke’s deep throws to Dyami continued to not connect. Dyami saw 6 targets in the game that totaled 80 air yards. The three that he caught accounted for 21 of those air yards. The 3 that he didn’t catch accounted for 59. This week’s opponent, the Packers, have allowed the 3rd-fewest completions of 20+ yards this season. Don’t look for Brown to get on track this week. The absence of Jaire Alexander may even hurt Brown, as it means Terry McLaurin will have a more favorable matchup.
WR Anthony Schwartz, CLE (Wk. 7: vs. Den.): I was tempted to list Schwartz as a sleeper this week with Odell Beckham Jr. potentially sidelined, but the return of Jarvis Landry likely saps any sneaky upside the rookie had in this one. Schwartz was used as a downfield threat in week 1 when Beckham was out, and Denver has allowed the 2nd-most 40+ yard completions in the league so far. With Landry active, Schwartz is nothing more than a dart throw in showdown DFS tournaments.
WRs Terrace Marshall Jr. & Shi Smith, CAR (Wk. 7: @NYG): Marshall exited last week’s game against the Vikings after suffering a concussion, and his status for week 7 remains up in the air. Even if he’s able to return this week, he’s garnered more than 3 targets just once in the last 5 games. If Marshall is out, fellow rookie Shi Smith is likely to step into the WR3 role. The Giants aren’t an imposing defense, allowing the 12th-most WR points per game, but Smith would be unlikely to see any more volume than Marshall had been seeing. Both are best left out of lineups.
TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 7: @NYG): Tremble’s playing time has been headed in the right direction, as his snap share increased to a season-high 51% in week 6, but targets and fantasy production haven’t followed with it. Tremble has been targeted just 7 total times in the three games since Dan Arnold was traded to Jacksonville. That limited volume isn’t worth chasing this week. The Giants are a decent matchup for tight ends, allowing the 12th-most points per game to the position, but Tremble is unlikely to take advantage.
TE Jack Stoll, PHI (Wk. 7: @LV): Chances are you aren’t familiar with the name Jack Stoll, but after Zach Ertz was traded to the Arizona Cardinals this week, the undrafted rookie is the only tight end on the Eagles’ roster beyond Dallas Goedert. In the season’s first 6 weeks, Philly lined up with multiple tight ends on the field on 27% of their plays, so Stoll may see an increased role moving forward, but it won’t be a fantasy relevant role. His spot as the TE2 on the depth chart could be short lived. The Eagles have signed Richard Rodgers to their practice squad and opened the practice window for Tyree Jackson this week to potentially return from injured reserve. There’s no reason to give any consideration to Stoll at this point, even in the deepest of leagues.
Rookies on bye in week 7: QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX, RB Najee Harris, PIT, RB Larry Rountree III, LAC, WR Josh Palmer, LAC, TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 7: @TB): If the Bears want to have success against the Bucs, they’re going to have to ask Justin Fields to throw the ball more. They’re not going to find much success running the ball against them, and the Bucs have allowed 275+ passing yards in 5 of their first 6 games. Fields hasn’t attempted 30 passes in a game yet and has been abysmal for fantasy purposes, but this game figures to be his highest volume passing day yet and we finally saw him start to use his legs last week and add points with rushing yards. The Bucs have allowed the 4th-most QB points per game. You shouldn’t be scared to put Fields in as your QB2 this week in superflex leagues if your options are limited.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 7: vs. NYJ): Stevenson seems to have gotten himself out of the Belichick doghouse and finds himself in a favorable spot this week. The Patriots are a touchdown favorite over a Jets team that allows the 2nd-most RB points per game. Damien Harris is going to lead the way in this backfield, but Stevenson should see a fair number of opportunities as well. It was a pleasant surprise to see Rhamondre running downfield receiving routes in Dallas last weekend, and if receiving usage continues, he’s going to have some unexpected upside. The rookie wouldn’t be my first choice as a starter this week, but he’s not a terrible option if you’re desperate.
RB Jaret Patterson, WAS (Wk. 7: @GB): Antonio Gibson has been dealing with a shin injury all season without missing a game, but he does seem to be in real jeopardy of missing this week’s tilt with the Packers after aggravating it last weekend. If Gibson is out, Patterson will have a chance at a significant role sharing the backfield with JD McKissic. McKissic is best utilized as a satellite receiving back, and that could leave a lot of the early down rushing work to Patterson. We saw what Khalil Herbert did last weekend to this Green Bay defense that ranks 30th in run defense DVOA. I don’t expect Patterson to have that kind of game, but 50+ yards isn’t out of the question if Gibson sits. I’d view him as more of a desperation play than anything, but this week there are some desperate fantasy managers.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve now made it halfway through the fantasy regular season, and you should have a pretty good idea of whether your team is in good position for the playoffs, or if you have some work to do to get back in the hunt. Keep grinding even if you don’t feel great about where you’re at right now. A big second half can still get you back into your league playoff picture.
By this point in the season, we’ve seen 3 rookies truly establish themselves as every-week must starts: Najee Harris, Ja’Marr Chase, and Kyle Pitts. I know that you already know to start them every week, but they’re still going to show up in the report as ‘Rookies to Start’ each week unless something drastic happens, and I’ll still include some tidbits about what to expect from them each week. This is the point in the year when we start to see some late-blooming rookies asserting themselves a bit more, and being able to pinpoint which rookies will step up can give you an edge if you’re trying to get back into contention. I’m here to help you do just that as we head into week 8.
A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game references and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. There are a LOT of running backs listed as ‘Borderline’ this week, so please keep this in mind and read what’s written about each. Let’s dive into week 8…
RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 8: @Cle.): This probably isn’t a ceiling week for Najee against what’s been a strong Cleveland run defense, but the rookie has scored at least 16 fantasy points in 5 straight games and should be locked into starting lineups. The Browns rank 3rd in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat and have allowed the 6th-fewest running back points per game. Harris shouldn’t be a chalky DFS play this week, but he’s still a safe starter in season-long leagues.
WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 8: @NYJ): This week feels like a bit of a trap game for Chase. The Jets have played from behind a lot this season, and as a result they’ve been bleeding a ton of points to running backs, but not so many to wide receivers. They’ve given up 6 and half more RB points per game than any other team in the league, and the 3rd-fewest per game to wide receivers. There may be plenty of Joe Mixon in this game, but Chase is still going to get his. He’s been targeted 9+ times in 3 of the last 4 games, and against the Jets’ undermanned defense, he should have no problem making it 8 games in a row of 10+ fantasy points even if his volume dips a bit. The Jets rank 30th in pass defense DVOA.
WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 8: @Det.): I won’t fault you if you’re a little gun-shy about getting Smith into your lineup since the Eagles’ inconsistent passing game seems to have capped his ceiling, but this is as good a spot as you’ll find to fire him up. Smith has seen 38% of the Eagles’ air yards this season, and no team has been burned down the field as consistently as the Lions. Detroit allows the highest average yards before catch per completion in the league, and Smith and QB Jalen Hurts will likely connect on a few balls of 15+ yards in this one. DeVonta has WR2 upside against a Detroit defense that ranks 27th in pass defense DVOA.
WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 8: @KC): Toney and teammate Kenny Golladay are both practicing as of Thursday, so both players seem to be on track to play Monday night, but Toney is the one I would want to play in lineups. Toney was dominating the looks and production in this offense the last couple games he played in, and the Chiefs rank 31st in pass defense DVOA. There should be plenty of passing volume for the Giants in this one, and if Toney is close to 100%, I like his chances at 7+ targets against a porous pass defense. If you plan to play Kadarius, keep an eye on the injury report and make sure he’s good to go, or make sure you have a backup plan in case he winds up inactive, but he’s going to reward fantasy managers who take the risk if he plays. He doesn’t have the safe floor that Smith or Chase do, but he’s got a WR1 ceiling.
TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 8: vs. Car.): A lot of people treated Kyle Pitts’ huge day in London as his true breakout game, but it was nothing compared to what he did in week 7. Yes, he scored more fantasy points in London than he did this past week by virtue of finding the end zone, but the way he piled up his stats against the Dolphins was more impressive. He beat man coverage and made circus downfield catches repeatedly on his way to over 160 yards receiving, and he did so with Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage back on the field after both missed the London trip. Yes, there will be more games where Pitts’ usage is puzzlingly low, but you’ve now seen the ceiling and why you can’t sit him if you have him. The Panthers have been above average against tight ends this year, but they’ve also allowed three tight end scores in the last 4 games.
QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 8: @Sea.): After a truly awful start to the season, Trevor Lawrence has looked more like the number 1 pick in recent weeks, limiting turnovers and keeping his team in games. The Jaguars have limited his passing volume with a heavy dose of James Robinson, but that hasn’t stopped the rookie from averaging 265 passing yards per game in his last 3. The Seahawks have been a very burnable secondary, ranking 25th in pass defense DVOA. I expect Seattle will want to slow the game down with Geno Smith at QB, so a 300-yard day probably isn’t in the offing for Trevor, but he should be a solid mid-range QB2 in this one.
RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 8: @Atl.): Chuba is coming off his worst game since stepping in for the injured Christian McCaffrey, but Atlanta seems like the perfect opponent to bounce back against. The Falcons have coughed up the 9th-most RB points per game and rank 28th in run defense DVOA, and have allowed double-digit fantasy points to an opposing back in every game but the one against Tampa. The Bucs have the 2nd-lowest run rate in the league. Chuba has been losing some passing down work to Royce Freeman most weeks, but he’s still handled at least 15 touches in each of the last 4 games. As long as the Panthers are in this game, Hubbard is going to be heavily involved. He’s a solid RB2 option despite the letdown game last week.
RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 8: @Det.): With the injury to Miles Sanders, Gainwell is in line for a much bigger workload in week 8. He’ll share backfield duties with Boston Scott, and both could be start-able facing off with a Detroit defense that allows the 4th-most RB points per game. Detroit ranks just 21st in run defense DVOA, so both backs should have some success on the ground. Boston Scott saw 3 rushing attempts inside the 10 yard-line last week while Gainwell saw just 1, but Detroit is just as likely to give up a receiving score to a running back as a rushing one (6 of each allowed so far). The plus matchup, the Eagles implied point total of 25.75 this week, and Gainwell’s extensive usage as a receiver give him the edge over the backs listed after him in this section.
RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 8: vs. SF): Herbert has handled at least 18 rushing attempts in each of the Bears last 3 games and should continue to operate as the lead back until David Montgomery returns. I do think Damien Williams will be more involved on passing downs this week than he was last week (he missed the entire practice week on the Covid list last week), and the Bears aren’t likely to be in as deep a hole on the scoreboard as they were last week, so Herbert probably won’t repeat his 5 receptions from last week. That shouldn’t be a huge concern as rushing volume is going to carry the day for Herbert again. The 49ers are a solid run defense, but nowhere near as stout as the Bucs defense Herbert shredded in week 7. He should be on the cusp of another RB2 week.
RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 8: @Chi.): On the other side of the Bears-49ers tilt, Elijah Mitchell will continue to lead the 49ers’ backfield this week. JaMycal Hasty did play a bigger role than I anticipated in his first game off the IR, playing about a third of the offensive snaps, but Mitchell was the ballcarrier on 18 of the team’s 21 RB rushing attempts. There is some risk that Hasty’s involvement grows as he gets further out from his injury, but I would expect Mitchell’s stranglehold on the early down work to continue for now. Mitchell hasn’t been as consistently efficient as Khalil Herbert, and Mitchell has had virtually zero passing game usage. That’s why I’d give Herbert a slight edge over Mitchell this week in spite of the 49ers being a better run defense than the Bears have been. Both are reasonable options if you need a fill-in RB2 or high-end flex running back.
RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 8: vs. Cin.): Carter has clearly established himself as the lead back for the Jets right now, as his share of backfield touches has gone from 56% to 59% to 63% in the last 3 games, and the switch to Mike White at QB could benefit him in the receiving game this week. 14 of White’s 32 attempts after replacing Zach Wilson last week were intended for Carter or Ty Johnson, with 9 of them going to Carter. The Bengals have allowed the 2nd-most receptions per game to running backs. The concern for Carter is that there just isn’t going to be much production on the ground, and there is minimal TD upside. The Jets have an implied total of just 16.5 points, and the Bengals rank 5th in run defense DVOA. Carter is a deeper flex option in PPR leagues.
RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 8: vs. Was.): Williams turned in a strong performance Thursday night against the Browns despite rushing for just 20 yards. It was his receiving usage that paved the way as he set a season-high with 6 receptions and scored a receiving touchdown. He’s now caught at least 3 passes in 5 consecutive games, but the return of Jerry Jeudy is going to pull targets from somewhere. This is another week where Williams could struggle to be productive on the ground. Washington ranks 8th in run defense DVOA and give up the bulk of the damage they allow through the air. Javonte is likely going to need another ceiling receiving week to be a useful fantasy starter, and I don’t think that’s very likely with Jeudy back. Javonte’s full-on timeshare with Melvin Gordon caps him enough that I wouldn’t play him over any of the other rookie backs listed above.
WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 8: @Buf.): Waddle has now played 3 full games with starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, and he’s scored at least 15 PPR points in all 3. This week’s matchup is a tough one though. The Bills are allowing the 2nd-fewest WR points per game, and rank 1st in pass defense DVOA. Slot corner Taron Johnson is allowing just 4.6 yards per target and a 65.6 passer rating on throws into his coverage. Waddle is still likely to be peppered with targets in this game, so volume should get him into the PPR WR3 range. Just know there is more risk in this matchup than we’ve seen in the last couple weeks with Waddle.
QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 8: @LAC): Week 7 illustrated exactly why fantasy football managers are more excited about Trey Lance, Justin Fields and Zach Wilson this year despite Mac clearly playing the best ball of that group. Jones put on a clinic in week 7, throwing for more than 400 yards against the hapless Jets in a game where the Patriots piled up more than 50 points…and he barely cracked the top-10 QBs for the week. New England has the 6th-highest run rate in the red zone (they were the highest in 2020), and Mac isn’t the guy running the ball. He isn’t adding points with his legs, and the team’s penchant for running in the red zone caps Mac’s ceiling. He gets a much tougher matchup this week against the Chargers. LA has allowed the 5th-fewest QB points per game and ranks 5th in pass defense DVOA. This isn’t a spot to trot Jones out there even in 2-QB lineups.
QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 8: vs. SF): Even with 81 rushing yards in the last two weeks, Fields hasn’t managed to post a 15-point fantasy day yet. There’s no way to reasonably recommend starting Fields given how bad this offense has looked in recent weeks, even in 2 QB formats. It’s promising that Fields is running the ball more, and at some point, the Bears will probably get things on track and get the rookie to a solid fantasy game. Unfortunately, no one will have him in their lineups when it finally happens.
QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 8: vs. LAR): Another week, another matchup against one of the best defenses in the NFL for Mills. Mills will be making his 6th start of the season this week (assuming Tyrod Taylor isn’t ready to return), and he’ll be facing a team ranked in the top-10 in pass defense DVOA for the 4th time, and a team in the top-5 for the 3rd time. In those first 3 meetings with top-10 defenses, Mills totaled 390 passing yards, 1 touchdown and 5 turnovers. There is no format where you should feel good about starting Davis Mills this week.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 8: @LAC): Stevenson flashed some surprising receiving skills in week 6, and then was back to being a healthy scratch in week 7. Bill Belichick loves to toy with us fantasy managers. Stevenson may be active again this week, but you certainly can’t count on it. The Chargers rank dead last in run defense DVOA, so there is upside for Stevenson if he sees any opportunity in this game, but I don’t expect him to see much of that.
RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 8: vs. Pit.): Nick Chubb is expected to return this week, but even with Chubb sidelined, Felton was on the field for just 22 snaps and handled 5 touches last Thursday against the Broncos. Chubb’s return means we’ll likely only see Felton for a handful of snaps again. Even if Chubb isn’t back, Felton will be mostly the passing down back against a Steelers defense that allows the 7th-fewest RB points per game.
RB Trey Sermon, SF (Wk. 8: @Chi): Sermon is now behind both Elijah Mitchell and JaMycal Hasty on the depth chart (and possibly Kyle Juszczyk too). Just don’t.
RB Larry Rountree III, LAC (Wk. 8: vs. NE): Austin Ekeler spoke this week about wanting to see one of his fellow running backs take charge of the complementary back role in this backfield, but there’s no reason to believe it will be Rountree who steps up after he was limited to just special teams work in week 5 and was a healthy scratch in week 6 ahead of the Chargers’ bye. Ekeler did pop up on the injury report on Thursday with a hip injury, so it’s worth monitoring his status, but Rountree probably isn’t the guy seeing a big boost if Ekeler sits.
WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 8: vs. GB): Moore’s two biggest yardage days this season have come at home in Glendale, but his playing time just isn’t consistent enough to trust. The Arizona debut of Zach Ertz pushed Rondale to the lowest route participation rate he’s seen in the last few weeks, and his aDOT last week was negative. With the way he’s being used, he’s going to need some big yards after catch numbers to prove useful, and Green Bay has allowed the 7th-fewest yards after catch per game. Moore is nothing more than an upside dart throw on Thursday.
WR Amon-Ra St.Brown, DET (Wk. 8: vs. Phi.): From week 4 through week 6, Amon-Ra was targeted at least 7 times each game. In week 7, he shockingly went without a target despite being on the field for more than 60% of the Lions’ offensive snaps. I’d expect him to get more opportunities this week, but with only 2 teams on byes you can’t be desperate enough to bet on an ARSB bounce-back. The opportunities he does get will come mostly against Philly slot corner Avonte Maddox, who has allowed just 4.1 yards per target and a 65.4 passer rating on throws into his coverage. Stay away from Amon-Ra this week.
WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 8: vs. Cin.): I was halfway tempted to list Moore as a sleeper this week after the Jets traded for Joe Flacco. Flacco has had success throughout his career throwing the deep ball, and the Jets have frequently had Moore running downfield routes, but Mike White is going to get the start this week and Moore’s usage just isn’t consistent enough to trust him with such a dicey QB situation. Moore did score his first NFL touchdown last week on a 19-yard run, but it’s not a sign you should be getting him into your lineups.
WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 8: vs. LAR): If you read what I wrote about Davis Mills above, you know it’s a bad idea to roll the dice on Collins this week. Collins has totaled 11 targets in his two games since returning from injured reserve, but against defenses that rank in the top-10 in pass defense DVOA, Davis Mills averages just 130 passing yards per start. The Rams rank 4th. Yes, there could be a lot of passing volume for the Texans if they fall into a hole as two touchdown underdogs, but the only place Nico is worth consideration is as a cheap option in a DFS showdown tournament. His outlook wouldn’t get much of a boost if Tyrod Taylor is able to return this week.
WR Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 8: @Den.): Brown is expected to miss this week’s game in Denver and hasn’t been productive enough to be an option even if he was going to play.
WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 8: @Atl.): Marshall still isn’t practicing as of Wednesday after sustaining a week 6 concussion. I’d expect him to be out again, and don’t expect him to be very useful even if active.
TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 8: @Atl.): The Falcons allow the 12th-most tight end points per game, but Tremble hasn’t put up more than 12 receiving yards in any of the past 4 games. He isn’t a fantasy option right now.
Rookies on bye in week 8: WR Rashod Bateman, BAL
QB Trey Lance, SF (Wk. 8: @Chi.): Jimmy Garoppolo has been named the starter for the 49ers week 8 game against the Bears, but the changing of the guard at QB is coming sooner rather than later if the 49ers don’t start putting up some wins. Lance is a guy you should be stashing for the stretch run. We’ve already seen the kinds of fantasy points he can produce when given the opportunity. Lance put up 20 points in a single half in his first extended action of the season and managed to put up nearly 14 points in his first full game despite not producing a single touchdown. His rushing production gives him a very high floor, a ceiling few other QBs can match.
RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 8: @NYJ): Keep an eye on the injury report here as Evans didn’t practice Wednesday and is listed as questionable for this game, but if he’s good to go, there is a ton of upside for him in what could be a lopsided game. His usage is too questionable to trust in season-long leagues after last week was the Mixon & Perine show in this backfield, but this is a perfect matchup for Evans to make an impact. We’ve seen Evans post a 2-TD game against the Detroit Lions, and he has a similar ceiling in this one. The Jets allow the most running back receptions and receiving yards per game, and they’ve allowed 3 different receiving backs to clear 12 fantasy points against them (James White, Jeremy McNichols, and Brandon Bolden). Evans costs a measly $200 for Showdown contests on DraftKings this week.
WR Amari Rodgers, GB (Wk. 8: @Ari.): Green Bay is in a desperate situation at wide receiver this week with both Davante Adams and Allen Lazard placed on the Covid reserve list this week. Both players are expected to miss this game, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been ruled out for another week as well. That leaves Randall Cobb as the WR1, with some combo of Equanimeous St. Brown, Malik Taylor and Rodgers rounding out the WR group. Since the Covid updates came during the week, the DraftKings showdown prices for ESB and Rodgers remain extremely low ($600 and $400, respectively), but one or both will play a sizable role in this game. I do think we’ll see Aaron Jones and Robert Tonyan handle larger target shares than usual, but Green Bay is likely going to have to throw to keep pace with Arizona’s high-powered offense. The Cardinals allow the 16th-most WR points per game, so not a brutal matchup by any means. Rodgers is in play as a dart throw in those showdown contests, but should still be avoided in season-long formats.
TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 8: @Cle.): The Browns aren’t an easy matchup for tight ends, allowing the 11th-fewest points per game to the position, but Freiermuth seems to be the biggest beneficiary of the season-ending injury to Juju Smith-Schuster, and the Browns are much better against the run than the pass. It’s only been one game since the Juju injury, but Freiermuth saw his largest snap and highest target totals of the season, and I’d expect that increased usage to continue going forward. Freiermuth should be treated as a fringe TE1 this week.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! The last 7 days around the NFL have been an absolute whirlwind. We’ve seen a potential Hall of Famer get traded (Von Miller), another future Hall of Famer be proven to be dishonest about his vaccination status (Aaron Rodgers), a disgruntled star wide receiver get told to stay away from his team after allegedly orchestrating a social media campaign against his QB (Odell Beckham Jr.), and another star WR step away from football to work on his mental health (Calvin Ridley). The worst news of the week, however, was the arrest of Henry Ruggs, and the tragic circumstances around it. Ruggs was driving faster than 150 MPH while at twice the legal blood alcohol limit and crashed into and killed a young Las Vegas woman. Ruggs’ recklessness likely means the end of his NFL career, but that is the least important part of sorting through the wreckage that his irresponsible decisions caused.
None of these news updates even touch on the action we saw on the field last week, and that action was wild enough on its own. No one saw the Mike White-led Jets or Cooper Rush-led Cowboys picking up upset wins this week, or the ultra-durable Derrick Henry suffering a season-ending foot injury. I also didn’t see disappearing acts coming from Kyle Pitts, Kenneth Gainwell, and DeVonta Smith. Michael Carter, Elijah Mitchell, and Justin Fields pick up the rookie slack. Which rookies are going to step up in week 9 and help you fill in for your byes and injured players? Let’s take a look and find out.
A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game Let’s dive into week 9…
Rookies to Start:
RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 9: vs. Pit.): You already know to start Harris, but his recent usage has been in the Derrick Henry range. Over the past 3 games, Harris has averaged 24 carries and 5 targets per game, this week he faces a defense that has allowed over 130 rushing yards to opposing backs in each of their last 3 games. The Bears rank 24th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. Harris is a locked-in RB1 again this week, even without stellar rushing efficiency.
WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 9: vs. Cle.): Chase had one of the worst fantasy games we’ve seen from him in his rookie season, with a season-low 32 receiving yards. He still finished the week as the WR27. He’s a must-start, and this week he faces a defense allowing the 15th-most WR points per game. Keep Chase locked into your lineups.
TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 9: @NO): Was week 8 a frustrating one for you if you started Kyle Pitts? You bet it was, but I’m comfortable going back to the well this week. The Falcons didn’t know until Sunday morning that they were going to be without star wide receiver Calvin Ridley and had no film on how the Panthers would deploy CB Stephon Gilmore, as he was making his first appearance for the team. With Ridley out, the Falcons offense was out of sorts, and Gilmore was able to shadow Pitts all game. Pitts’ production was terrible, finishing with just 2 catches for 13 yards on 6 targets, but his usage was a level rarely seen by a tight end. Pitts was in a route on 97% of Matt Ryan’s dropbacks, and those 6 targets still represented a 22% target share as Matt Ryan threw just 27 times. The Falcons will be able to prepare all week knowing they won’t have Ridley. They’re going to be much more creative in finding ways to ensure that Pitts isn’t followed around by Marshon Lattimore all day, and Pitts should be in line for a nice bounce back game. It’s true the Saints allow just the 5th-fewest TE points per game, but they’ve faced just one tight end all year that’s currently better than the TE20 on the season. Don’t run from the matchup. Pitts should be in your lineup this week unless you have an elite top-5 TE option to start over him.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 9: @Car.): If this were last year, the Panthers would be exactly the kind of defense Mac Jones would be licking his chops to face. The 2020 version of the Panthers were content to sit back in zone coverage and let teams pick them apart underneath, but not give up the deep ball. They had the 9th-lowest blitz rate, and the 12th-lowest press coverage rate in the league. The 2021 Panthers, on the other hand, have the 4th-highest rates in both areas. They play aggressive in coverage, and they get after you up front, and the addition of Stephon Gilmore has them back to playing defense at a high level after a few shakier defensive weeks. Jones has been efficient through his first half-season, but it hasn’t come with much fantasy upside, and this week could be a challenging one. The reason I list Mac as a borderline option is because I see him as a borderline QB2 this week. Four teams are sitting the week out on byes, and a few others are without their starting QBs as Aaron Rodgers, Sam Darnold, Kyler Murray, and Jameis Winston could all be out this week. I’d prefer Mac over bottom-of-the-barrel options like PJ Walker, Mike White, Jordan Love, and fellow rookies Trevor Lawrence & Justin Fields this week. He doesn’t have a big ceiling in this matchup, but he should have a reasonable floor.
RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 9: @Ind.): Carter dazzled in week 8, hauling in 9 receptions and finishing as the overall RB1 for the week. He’s clearly established himself as the lead back in this committee over Ty Johnson, and Mike White at QB has been a huge boost to his receiving production. White has targeted running backs on over 40% of his passes while Zach Wilson was below 20%. This week’s matchup isn’t an ideal one for Carter. The Colts rank 1st in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 3rd-fewest RB points per game, and the Jets’ offense is expected to struggle with an implied total of just 18 points. Indy doesn’t give up a ton of receiving production to backs, allowing just 4 receptions and 33 yards per game to the position. With White at QB, the checkdowns are going to keep coming, so I do expect the Jets’ backs to out-pace those receiving averages the Colts have allowed. Carter just doesn’t possess the same ceiling this week that he did against the Bengals. He’s a low-end RB2 option in PPR leagues, and a little lower than that in half-PPR. If I were going to target Jets’ pass catchers in showdown contests, Carter, Jamison Crowder, and Elijah Moore would be my choices.
RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 9: vs. NE): The Panthers might get Christian McCaffrey back this week…or they might not get him back for two more weeks. It’s hard to say with any certainty at this point, but the Panthers did open his practice window to potentially return. If McCaffrey is ready to go this week, don’t play Hubbard. If he sits again, Hubbard should be in good position to post an RB2 week. Of the trio of rookie lead backs who don’t catch many passes (Hubbard/Elijah Mitchell/Khalil Herbert), Chuba has the most favorable matchup this week. The Patriots rank a middling 17th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 18th-most RB points per game. They’re not an inviting matchup, but they aren’t as daunting as those faced by the other rookie backs. Keep an eye on the injury report and make sure CMC sits before locking in Chuba in your lineups.
RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 9: vs. Ari.): Mitchell had a big game against the Bears last Sunday, rolling up over 130 yards and a touchdown, but the sledding will be a bit tougher this week. The Cardinals rank 9th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 7th-fewest RB points per game. They’ve also probably seen enough film on Mitchell to know he’s kind of a one-trick pony. He doesn’t catch passes, and he hasn’t had much success running between the tackles. 13 of his 15 rushes of 10+ yards this year have come either off-tackle, or on the outside. The Bears allow the 2nd-highest yards per rush average on those kinds of carries. The Cardinals allow the 18th-highest average. Mitchell is still the lead back in an offense that wants to run the ball. He’s got a questionable tag with a rib injury, so keep an eye on his status, but if he plays, he should be a solid flex option with upside this week.
RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 9: @Pit.): The Bears have opened the practice window for David Montgomery to return from IR, so this may be your last opportunity to get Herbert into your lineups before he’s relegated to backup duty again. He’s proven to be an outstanding runner in his first few opportunities this year, but he seemed to hit a wall in the second half against the 49ers last Sunday. Khalil tallied just 8 scrimmage yards in the second half on 10 carries and 1 reception. The Steelers are an even better run defense than the 49ers, ranking 6th in run defense DVOA, and allowing the 6th-fewest RB points per game. If Montgomery is out again this week, Herbert is still a reasonable RB3 option, but know that it could be tough sledding for him against the Steelers.
RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 9: @Dal.): This is your weekly ‘Javonte Williams is going to touch the ball about a dozen times and may or may not post a useful fantasy stat-line with them’ update. Dallas has been solid against the run, ranking 11th in run defense DVOA, and allowing the 7th-fewest RB points per game. Dallas has given up just 4 running back TDs all year, and you’ll probably need a score to feel good about starting Javonte. He’s an RB3 option if you’re desperate.
WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 9: vs. Hou.): Waddle had a down game against a tough Bills’ defense in week 8, but he should get back on track against the Texans on Sunday. After facing Taron Johnson last week, the Texans’ secondary will be a sight for sore eyes. Waddle has averaged just over 10 targets per game since Tua returned to the lineup, and the Texans are allowing the 13th-most WR points per game. Waddle should pile up enough catches to post a strong PPR WR3 game.
WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 9: vs. Min.): Since returning from IR, Bateman has played more than 60% of the offensive snaps and seen 6 targets in both games he’s been active for. This week he gets to face a Minnesota defense allowing the 6th-most WR points per game. I expect the Ravens to continue to get their 1st round pick involved in this good matchup. The Ravens still don’t throw enough to make Bateman a truly safe play along with Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews, but he should be a reasonable WR3/4 option this week in all formats.
WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 9: vs. LV): Toney seems likely to play this week despite suffering yet another injury Monday night against the Chiefs. It also appears that Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay will return to action as well, so it remains to be seen just how big a target share Toney is going to get. I expect the Giants want him involved after his breakout games a few weeks ago, but his ceiling might not be as high this week against the Raiders. 58% of Toney’s yards on the season have come after the catch, and Vegas has allowed the 2nd-fewest yards after catch in the league. Toney is still in play as a WR3/4 option, but I’d take a long look at your other available options before pulling the trigger.
WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 9: vs. LAC): Smith remains an infuriating player if you have him on your fantasy rosters. He dominates usage in this passing game, still sitting at a 23% target share and nearly 40% air yard share for the season, but he just isn’t converting those things into fantasy points. For the season, he’s scored fewer points than Van Jefferson, Hunter Renfrow, and Kendrick Bourne. He’s much closer to a must-sit than a must-start at this point, but the usage keeps alive the hope of a tantalizing ceiling. The Chargers probably aren’t the team that he’ll reach it against. They’ve allowed the 2nd-fewest WR points per game, and rank 4th in pass defense DVOA. Smith is in the ‘only if you’re desperate’ category this week.
TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 9: vs. Chi.): Freiermuth faces a tough matchup on paper this week against a Chicago defense that has allowed the 2nd-fewest tight end points per game, but his target volume keeps him in the TE streamer discussion this week. The rookie has been targeted 7 times in each game since JuJu Smith-Schuster went down for the season, and that volume should continue going forward. With TJ Hockenson and Gronk on a bye, Noah Fant on the covid list, you may be looking for a replacement this week. There are probably streaming options with higher upside than Freiermuth this week, but the Steelers’ TE should be a safe floor play who should clear 40 yards.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 9: @Pit.): Fields finally posted the kind of game we’ve been waiting for from him last Sunday, but I wouldn’t count on a repeat performance this week against a talented Pittsburgh defense. His big day last week was a result of over 100 yards and a score running the ball, and so far, the Steelers have only allowed 1 quarterback to rush for more than 11 yards against them. Matt Nagy returns to the sideline this week, giving Fields another obstacle to overcome. I would view him as a very tail end QB2 option this week.
QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 9: vs. Buf.): The Bills have only allowed 1 quarterback all season to post a top-12 finish against them, and I don’t like Lawrence’s chances to make it 2. In week 8, Lawrence saw his efficiency levels fall back to where they were in the first few weeks of the season despite facing a burnable Seattle defense. This week he takes on a Buffalo unit that ranks 1st in pass defense DVOA, has allowed the fewest QB points per game, and has forced 12 QB turnovers in their last 6 games, with at least one in every contest. They’ve been a defensive buzzsaw and are not a great spot to hope for a Lawrence bounce back after his down game last week. Garbage time may give Lawrence more upside this week than Mac Jones, but his floor is lower. I’d keep the rookie parked on my bench.
QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 9: @Mia.): In case you missed the news, Tyrod Taylor will be back from IR and starting at QB for the Texans this week. Across his 6 starts, Mills faced an absolute gauntlet of defenses. The Colts were the only team he started against that doesn’t rank in the top-12 in the league at limiting QB points, and now he goes back to the bench as the Texans prepare to face a Miami team that allows the 3rd-most points to the position. Sometimes the world just isn’t fair.
RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 9: vs. LAC): Like everyone else, I too was shocked that the Eagles phased Gainwell out of their offense against the Lions last weekend. I expected a lot of Boston Scott and Gainwell in the backfield with Miles Sanders sidelined, but the Eagles opted to use Jordan Howard as the 2nd RB instead of the rookie. The final stat sheet actually shows Gainwell led the backfield in touches, but almost all of his opportunities came in the 4th quarter after the other two backs had each found the end zone twice. I don’t expect Gainwell to only have 1 touch through the first 3 quarters again this week, but I do expect the Eagles to have a similar gameplan against a Chargers’ defense allowing the most RB rushing yards per game. It clearly worked well last week, and I expect a lot of Boston Scott and Jordan Howard again this week. Gainwell may play a bit more, but I’d shy away from using him in any fantasy lineups this week.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 9: @Car.): The Patriots backfield after Damien Harris continues to be a conundrum to sort out each week. Even if Stevenson works as the team RB2 this week, which is far from a certainty, he’s going to see limited opportunity against a defense allowing the 2nd-fewest RB points per game.
RB Larry Rountree III, LAC (Wk. 9: @Phi.): Rountree may get a bit more run this week against a defense that has allowed the 3rd-most RB points per game thanks to an injury to Justin Jackson, but it’s hard to know exactly how big that role will be behind Austin Ekeler. He’s gotten additional run in games the Chargers have won easily, so if you think they run away with this game, Rountree may have some desperation flex-appeal in non-PPR leagues. I wouldn’t count on him though.
RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 9: vs. Cle.): Evans should return from injury this week, but the Browns allow the 9th-fewest RB receptions per game, and we’ve seen Evans be productive exactly 1 time in the 5 games where he saw snaps.
RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 9: @Cin.): With Nick Chubb back on the field last week, Felton totaled just 1 rushing attempt and 1 target. He’s not worth a roster spot in season-long leagues.
RB Trey Sermon, SF (Wk. 9: vs. Ari.): Sermon hasn’t played an offensive snap since week 5…when he played all of 2 offensive snaps. Nothing to see here.
WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 9: @SF): Moore could move into a more prominent role this week with AJ Green on the Covid list, but he’ll have to be utilized differently to cash in on the opportunity. The majority of Moore’s work this season has come on short passes behind the line of scrimmage or just a few yards downfield, and the 49ers have allowed the 3rd-fewest yards after catch in the league this year. Moore could pile up a bunch of short catches to help in PPR formats, but I don’t see him posting a quality fantasy line for you this week.
WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 9: vs. NE): Marshall has a good chance to return to action this week as he practiced in full on Wednesday, but he’ll likely be doing so with PJ Walker at quarterback, and Marshall averaged just 2.7 catches and 23 yards per game when things were good in this passing game the first 4 weeks of the season. I can’t see him putting up a productive game his first week back. If you get him into any lineups, you’re just crossing your fingers that he scores a TD.
WR Anthony Schwartz, CLE (Wk. 9: @Cin.): There is a small amount of upside this week for Schwartz with Odell Beckham Jr. essentially booted off the team. In the first two games of the season with OBJ sidelined with injury, Schwartz played right around 50% of the offensive snaps and saw a handful of deep targets. The concern here is that Schwartz still may find himself 4th on the WR depth chart this week if Donovan Peoples-Jones is able to return from injury. In week 1, Rashard Higgins played just 4 offensive snaps, but he’s been a fixture in 3-WR sets since, and Schwartz isn’t going to play much over Jarvis Landry or Peoples-Jones. If DPJ sits, Schwartz has some dart throw upside in the deepest of leagues and DFS tournaments, but otherwise he should be avoided.
WR Josh Palmer, LAC (Wk. 9: @Phi.): Palmer scored his first career TD last week, but he also played the fewest snaps he’s seen since week 4. Don’t be fooled by the touchdown. There’s no change here for Palmer. He remains waiver fodder.
TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 9: vs. NE): Tremble is playing enough to get mentioned every week but isn’t seeing enough usage to warrant lineup consideration. He’s seen 12 targets come his way over the last 4 games but hasn’t topped 20 receiving yards in any game and found the end zone just once. There isn’t any reason to expect that to change against a New England defense that’s allowing the 3rd-fewest TE points per game.
Rookies on Bye in week 9: RB Jaret Patterson, WAS, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET, WR Dyami Brown, WAS, WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 9: @Ind.): Moore’s playing time in week 8 was less than encouraging (on the field for just 36% of the offensive snaps in a game Corey Davis missed), but what he did with his playing time is worth some attention. The rookie had his best game of the season, catching all 6 of his targets for 67 yards, and throwing in a 4-yard rush for good measure. I’d be surprised if his playing time doesn’t tick up a bit this week, and the Colts have struggled to defend undersized speed receivers who play on the outside. Brandin Cooks posted 9-89 against them. Tyler Lockett put up 4-100-2. Marquise Brown posted 9-125-2. Moore will likely need Mike White to take a few deep shots to cash in this week the way those guys have against the Colts, but the opportunity is there for Moore to improve on what he did a week ago.
WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 9: @Mia.): The return of Tyrod Taylor to the lineup should open up the deeper passing game this week, and the Dolphins allow the 2nd-most WR points per game and have allowed the 2nd-most air yards on completed passes this year. Taylor’s return and the matchup are certainly more beneficial for WR1 Brandin Cooks than for Nico, but there is plenty of DFS upside for Collins in a game that has some shootout potential. Collins costs just $3,600 on DraftKings.
TE Brevin Jordan, HOU (Wk. 9: @Mia.): I list Jordan here more as a guy to stash in deeper leagues than to start this week. He was active for the first time all season in week 8 thanks to Pharaoh Brown being out with injury, and he made the most of the opportunity with a 3-41-1 line on 4 targets. The Texans’ season is going nowhere fast, and at some point, it will behoove them to see what they have in the youngster after he caught for 72 yards and nearly a touchdown per game at Miami last year. Jordan does have sneaky DFS appeal this week if Brown misses another game. The Dolphins rank 26th in pass defense DVOA, and Jordan costs the minimum on DraftKings.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.