NFL Football is back!!! I am excited for the opportunity to share my insights, my strategy, and my bets with everyone this year through the expanding drinkfive community. Every week I will break down early week line movement for the weekend games. Stay tuned to the website for updates throughout the week, but I will give my best numbers and be clear on the bets I have in pocket in my early articles.
A couple of quick notes about myself and my betting strategy. I do not have spreadsheets, I do not set my own lines, I do not have power rankings. My strategy starts with one simple mantra, “Fade the public”. As a bettor who favors spread sports, I start with the contrarian strategy. This means I will be picking A LOT of dogs and A LOT of unders. Lines tend to be shaded to favorites, especially home favorites, and to the overs because the public loves betting on, and rooting for, scoring. Contrarians take advantage of these shaded lines and can earn extra value out of the gate with this knowledge. I read line movement for each game, analyze how heavily bet the game is, look for inconsistencies in the betting percentages and money percentages, and sprinkle in some betting systems for good measure. That’s it! That is my betting strategy! I am here to tell you it does not always work, but having a consistent strategy is the only way you stand a chance of being profitable. You can fade me or you can follow me, but at least now you know where my picks are coming from. Without further a due let’s jump into week 1!
Pittsburg +6.5 @ Buffalo
Let me first say that I am holding out for a 7 here before making my bet. If I do not get it I will take the 6.5, but I do think a 7 may be available as we get closer to game time Sunday. I like this game because it is already one of the highest bet games for week 1. The line opened at 6 or 6.5 depending on where you look and has not moved much despite the action on this game. Both teams won their divisions last year, but the Bills are seeing just over 60% of the tickets. The buzz is on the Bills after their run last year and they are the home team so I see value in taking the road dog with a large spread. Again, Pittsburg won their division last year with a 12-4 record, they have some serious offensive firepower, they are well-coached, and finally, this is week 1 and Mike Tomlin has had a lot of time to prepare. I am going to hold off for the key number of 7 if I can get it, but I also don’t want to lose the hook so if its 6.5 or 6 I will jump on it at 6.5.
Cleveland +6.5 @ Kansas City
I’m sticking with the heavy road dog contrarian play in the rematch from last year's AFC Divisional game. Kansas City is ALWAYS a heavy public favorite so right out of the gate I like the value. Cleveland has less than 40% of the bets and while some lines have moved from 6 to 6.5 (including my book) there are other respected books that have not moved from the 6. Cleveland improved on the defensive side of the ball in both the secondary and on the linebacker corps, they’re also coming into this game 100% on the offensive side of the ball. I see Cleveland playing possession-style football and keeping Mahomes on the bench as much as possible. Again, the extra time to prepare for a Week 1 matchup plays heavily into my play here and 6.5 points is a big margin in the first real action of the NFL season.
Houston +3 vs Jacksonville
Hold your nose and take the points with Houston at home against division rival Jacksonville. You absolutely only take this bet at the key number of 3. Houston is not good. In fact, they are most likely the worst team in the NFL this season, HOWEVER, Jacksonville is getting a lot of hype for a team that went 1-15 last season. Sure, they have 1st overall pick Trevor Lawrence and famed college coach Urban Meyer in town now, but this is the NFL. A rookie QB AND rookie Head Coach both starting their first NFL game on the road as a favorite? That is too much hype for my contrarian's heart. Even the books are juicing up the -2.5 to avoid giving the field goal away, and those books that have adjusted are making sure you’re paying extra for the key number.
I am also watching Cincinnati +3.5 at home against Minnesota and Arizona +3 as a road dog against Tennessee. Remember to watch for late line movement before games start for last-minute value or “tells” into which way the sharp money is going. Books lift the betting limits late and that is often when you can see what side the house has liability on. Big bets don’t move lines; sharp/respected bettors move lines.
