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October

Statistically (in)Significant: Week 5 Featured

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Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

 

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Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

 

 

 0-6 Record in Their First Start

 

Trey Lance is the sixth rookie QB to make his first start this season, and in those games, all 6 rookie QBs have posted losses. Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, Davis Mills, and Trey Lance are the six rookies. Overall, those rookies only have 5 total wins, with Fields leading the way with two, Wilson with just one win last week in OT over the Titans. Mac Jones also has two victories this year, but interestingly enough, his opponent in both of those wins were also rookie QBs. Of this week’s performers, even though Davis Mills did not win, he was by far the best fantasy rookie QB of the week. Mills threw for 312 yards and 3 TDs for 24.68 fantasy points, good for QB5 on the week (and Mills is only owned in 21% of Fleaflicker leagues). His 141.7 QB rating was the second-best on the week, behind only the GOAT himself, Tom Brady – who posted his 9th career game with 5+ passing TDs (and second of the season).

 

6 QBs in Tier 1

 

This season, it’s quite crowded at the top of the QB list. There are 6 QBs that I would consider all in the same playing tier, as they are all within less than a 10%-point difference of each other. On top is Patrick Mahomes, with a surprising 2-3 record, has a league-leading 16 passing TDs, and still leads the league in fantasy points with 136.9 (just edging out Tom Brady’s 136.28). The only other QB with a losing record, Jalen Hurts, is just 11.7 points behind the leader. Of the top 6, Hurts actually has the highest floor – his worst game clocks in at 21.80 points against the 49ers in Week 2. Take that, Kyler Murray, who could only post 13.66 this week against them. Perhaps in all of this I have not given enough credit to the best performer of the week, and the only QB to break the 40-point barrier this season, Justin Herbert. Herbert led his team to an astonishing 47 points, even if they weren’t trying to score a TD on that very last drive.

 

153 Yards from Scrimmage per Game

 

While the top of the QB list may be crowded, there is only one name atop the RB list, and that’s King Henry himself. Derrick Henry quietly had 130 rushing yards this week, actually lowering his season average for yards from scrimmage – probably because this is the first game this season that he was not targeted in the passing game. In every other game this year, he has at least two receptions. I suppose that his participation in the passing game wasn’t necessary since the Titans were easily handling the Jaguars, handing them their 20th consecutive loss. Those of you with Henry on your team will just have to settle for the 3 TDs and 31 total points that he gave you. Henry is still on pace to break the single-season yardage record, though at this pace he will definitely need that 17th game to do so. Henry definitely deserves his own tier when looking at the rankings – he’s nearly 20 fantasy points ahead of the second-best RB, Austin Ekeler, who in turn is 16+ points ahead of the 3rd highest scoring RB this year, some slouch named Zeke that’s apparently barely worth mentioning. Of course, I kid, but Henry’s dominance is amazing. The best WRs have just a fraction over 100 fantasy points through 5 games.

 

3 Franchise Records

 

Alvin Kamara picked a good week to finally put up a performance worthy of his first-round draft status. While he’s been OK this year, this week was his first game over 20 fantasy points, his most receiving yards in a game, his most yards from scrimmage in a game, and the most TDs he’s scored in a game all season. Along the way this week, he set three franchise records that are so very Kamara-esque. He had his 9th game with a rushing and receiving TD, his 12th game to go over 50 yards rushing and receiving, and his 19th multiple TD game. Kamara now sits as the RB9 on the season, not a terrible spot to be in, but when you look at the draft capital you would have spent on the RB10 guy, James Robinson, it’s hard not to think that perhaps if you drafted Alvin Kamara, you definitely overpaid (so far). Hopefully, the Saints can keep him rolling when they return from their bye in Week 7.

 

10 Receptions for 189 Yards

 

Pardon me while I take a victory lap with Kadarius Toney’s performance on Sunday. Last week I called him as a sleeper who could turn in a top-10 performance, and he did just that. Toney led the Giants in targets for the second week in a row, seeing 13 targets where the second-highest total was only 5. Unfortunately for Toney and the Giants, the injury bug has hit them in a very serious way. Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones both exited the game and were carted off before halftime. Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard both missed their second consecutive game. Their offensive line is in shambles. 7 of their 11 opening day starters are now out with injury, leaving a team that was on the upswing for a moment reeling. Toney is now probably their best offensive weapon, and despite only having Mike Glennon throwing to him for now, he’s probably in line for another high-volume game next week against the Rams, though I hesitate to start him against that passing defense. Looking at their numbers on the season, however, the Rams are giving up the 15th most fantasy points to opposing WRs and are susceptible to giving up good games to players with lots of targets.

 

Last modified on Monday, 11 October 2021 17:16
Jason Evans

I am a co-founder and the editor of drinkfive.com. In order to stave off fantasy football insanity, Dave and I have branched out to cover a variety of interests. When I'm not knee deep in wikipedia pages, I like to hang out at breweries or a disc golf course (especially both in the same day). FSWA Member for 5+ years.

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