Welcome back to the Rookie Report! The last two weeks have made us rethink everything we thought we knew about the NFL this season, but here’s hoping things get back to normal this week. Week 8 saw unheralded QBs Mike White, Cooper Rush and Trevor Siemian lead their teams to huge upset wins. Week 9 saw the Bills fall to the Jaguars, the Cowboys throttled by Denver, and the Rams look lost against the Derrick Henry-less Titans. It was an eventful week for the rookies too. Ja’Marr Chase posted the worst game of his rookie campaign and Kyle Pitts underwhelmed again, but DeVonta Smith and Elijah Moore had the kind of games we’ve been waiting for from them. Jaylen Waddle topped 80 yards for the 2^nd time this year, and Javonte Williams ran for over 100 for the first time. Hopefully there are more rookie firsts in store for us this weekend, but I’m here still here to walk you through what to expect from the rookies this weekend even if there aren’t. 

A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game Let’s dive into week 10…

Rookies to Start:

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 10: vs. Det.): As usual, you don’t need me to tell you to start Harris this week, but this is an especially good spot for the rookie. Detroit has allowed the 2^nd-most RB points per game and rank 25^th in Football Outsiders run defense DVOA stat. He should be an automatic chalk play in DFS cash games, and not a bad tournament option either. Just be aware that he’s going to be in a LOT of lineups. We’ve seen some baffling performances by clear chalk picks in recent weeks, but Najee is a very strong bet to post a top-12 performance this week, with an RB1 overall ceiling.

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 10: vs. Bal.): Waddle has very quietly hauled in the 6^th-most receptions in the league so far. He’s had 8+ targets come his way in each of the last 4 games and posted 15+ PPR points in 3 of them. The Ravens are a tough matchup, allowing the 10^th-fewest WR points per game. Slot corner Tavon Young has allowed just a 58.0 passer rating on throws into his coverage. I still expect Waddle’s volume to rule the day. He’s going to get enough work to make up for it. Brissett starting again lowers his overall ceiling, but Waddle is a safe WR3 in PPR formats this week.

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 10: @Dal.): Pitts has topped at least 50 receiving yards in 5 of his last 7 games and gets to face a Dallas defense allowing the 12^th-most TE points per game. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see Trevon Diggs cover the rookie a fair amount, but Diggs has been prone to giving up big plays, allowing 15.8 yards per completion into his coverage. We already know Pitts can produce big plays, averaging nearly 20 yards per catch over the last 3 weeks. Pitts remains a top-6 tight end option in this one.

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 10: vs. Det.): Freiermuth’s run of recent success continued in week 9. He’s now been targeted at least 6 times and caught for over 40 yards in 3 straight games, topping 14 fantasy points in each of the last two, and now gets to face a Detroit defense that ranks 29^th in pass defense DVOA. The Lions have only allowed the 11^th-fewest TE points per game but opposing offenses have been able to pick them apart wherever they choose to, and the Steelers are going to continue to pepper Freiermuth with targets. George Kittle, Mark Andrews and Dallas Goedert all broke 70 receiving yards against this defense. With Chase Claypool potentially sidelined, the Steelers may have to rely on the rookie tight end even more. He’s a top-10 tight end play this week, and a bargain for main slate DFS contests, where top options like Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Mike Gesicki, George Kittle and Darren Waller are not available.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 10: @Ind.): The Jaguars stunned the football world with a victory over the Bills last weekend, but it was a second straight clunker of a fantasy game for Lawrence, and the second straight game where the Jaguars failed to score 10 points as a team. This week looks much more promising for the #1 overall pick. James Robinson should be back in action, taking some of the offensive burden off the quarterback, and he gets to face a Colts’ defense that has allowed the 3^rd-most points per game to QBs and ranks 26^th in pass defense DVOA. I like Trevor’s chances of accounting for multiple TDs in this game and finishing as a fringe QB1.

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 10: vs. Phi.): It was great to see Williams top 100 rushing yards for the first time in his burgeoning career last Sunday, but don’t be fooled into thinking the season-high 17 carries were a sign of things to come for him. Melvin Gordon still carried the ball 21 times in a game that the Broncos controlled throughout. This is still a full-on timeshare, but it’s a full-on timeshare facing a favorable matchup. The Eagles have allowed the 5^th-most RB points per game, and Williams has consistently been the more efficient back of the duo. Philly’s recent shift to a run-heavy game plan could put a dent in the overall number of plays run in this one, so Williams might not have quite the same ceiling in this one that he would’ve a few weeks ago, but he should finish as a top-24 back in week 10.

RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 10: vs. LAR): Week 9 was at least a little concerning if you have Mitchell on your roster after he saw his 2^nd-lowest touch total of the season. A lot of that can be chalked up to game script. JaMycal Hasty was operating as the 3^rd-down back, and the 49ers were in catch-up mode for most of the game. The problem is that the 49ers could find themselves in a similar boat on Monday night. The Rams are only favored by 4 but will be looking for a get-right game after stumbling against the Titans. The 49ers also will likely activate Jeff Wilson Jr. for the first time this season, who could siphon playing time from the rookie. For now, I’m operating under the assumption that Mitchell will continue to be the lead back and see him as a low-end RB2 option against a solid Rams’ defense that adds Von Miller into the mix this week. The Rams have had more struggles with receiving backs (D’Andre Swift, Gio Bernard) than pure runners.

RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 10: vs. Buf.): The matchup here isn’t great, but Carter’s usage has been consistent, and he gets checkdown hero Mike White back under center. The Bills don’t allow much RB receiving production, giving up the fewest RB receptions and 4^th-fewest RB receiving yards in the league, but the ball is still going to find its way to Carter. He’s seen 15+ touches in each of the last 3 weeks and should see similar usage here. The ceiling is low, but Carter should be able to return an RB3-worthy performance in PPR formats.

WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 10: @Mia.): Bateman hasn’t played in a game with Sammy Watkins active yet, but it’s hard to imagine the 1^st-round rookie will take a major backseat to the veteran in Watkins’ first game back. Bateman has played more than 60% of the offensive snaps in each game he’s been active for and seen at least 6 targets in each. I expect another 6+ targets tonight. Bateman is an upside WR3 play this week against the Dolphins, who allow the 3^rd-most WR points per game. Don’t let Watkins scare you off firing him up if you were considering starting him when you expected Sammy to sit.

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 10: @Den.): Here’s hoping last Sunday was a sign that Smith and Jalen Hurts are finally on the same page, but I’m not ready yet to declare that they definitely are. Smith has dominated air yards in this passing game all season, but the Eagles’ recent recommitment to the running game has lowered his margin for error. He’s seen 3 of his 4 lowest target totals of the season in the last 4 games and totaled just 107 receiving yards in the 3 games prior to his 5-116-1 breakout last week. The Broncos allow the 14^th-fewest WR points per game. Smith is back to being a boom-or-bust WR3 this week.

WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 10: vs. Buf.): Last week was the breakout performance we’ve been waiting for from Moore, with 2 touchdowns, but I wouldn’t count on a repeat performance. Corey Davis should return to the lineup, and the Jets face a Buffalo defense that allows the fewest WR points per game. With Mike White back under center, there’s still a chance at a floor week for Moore, but that likely means closer to 40 yards than the 60+ we’ve seen the last couple weeks. He’s in play as a WR4 in deeper PPR leagues, but I’d probably lean away from him in most leagues.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 10: vs. Cle.): Jones faces a Cleveland defense that has allowed the 11^th-most QB points per game, but this defensive unit has been much better than that number implies. They’ve been shredded a few times this season, by star quarterbacks Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, and Patrick Mahomes. In their other 6 games, they’ve allowed just 11.2 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. No QB they’ve faced in the last 3 weeks has reached 15. I’d be hesitant to play Mac anywhere this week unless you have to in a superflex or 2-QB league.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 10: vs. Cle.): Stevenson is fighting to get himself cleared from the concussion protocol this week, as is teammate Damien Harris. As of now, I would guess that neither guy gets cleared, but Stevenson should function as the lead back if he gets cleared and Harris doesn’t. Even in that case, he’s no more than a fringe option for deeper leagues. The Browns rank 5^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 9^th-fewest RB points per game.

RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 10: @NE): Felton was placed on the Browns’ Covid-reserve list this week along with Nick Chubb, but since both players are vaccinated there is a chance that one or both could get cleared in time for this game. If Felton gets cleared and Chubb doesn’t, the rookie will play a larger role than usual in this offense, but it still won’t be one worthy of starting in your lineups. In the one game this season where Chubb and Kareem Hunt were both inactive, Felton played a season-high 22 offensive snaps, but he handled just 2 rushing attempts and 3 targets in that game. There’s a glimmer of hope for Felton as the Patriots allow the 3^rd-most RB receiving yards per game and he’s a pass catching specialist, but the upside isn’t great enough to chase here.

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 10: @Den.): Gainwell got into the end zone last weekend, but he was on the field for just 11 offensive snaps and handled only 2 offensive touches. He’s a non-factor in this offense right now, and you can’t start him until that changes.

RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 10: @Ari.): The return of Christian McCaffrey sends Hubbard back to being nothing more than a handcuff with little to no standalone value. Chuba played just 10 snaps in week 9, even with McCaffrey playing less than half of the offensive plays. Ameer Abdullah worked as the RB2 ahead of Hubbard. As McCaffrey’s workload gets ramped back up in the coming weeks, Hubbard will have even less of a chance to play a fantasy relevant role.

RB Jermar Jefferson, DET (Wk. 10: @Pit.): Jamaal Williams still isn’t practicing as of Wednesday, and Jefferson posted 12.9 PPR points in week 8 with Williams sidelined, but there is no reason to count on a repeat performance here. The bulk of Jefferson’s points came on a 4^th quarter garbage time drive that he capped with a touchdown. Through the first 3 quarters, D’Andre Swift handled 17 of Detroit’s 22 running back touches, and the leftover touches were split between Jefferson and Godwin Igwebuike. You don’t need me to tell you that spitting less than 25% of the backfield touches against a team allowing the 3^rd-fewest RB points per game isn’t an ideal situation to start a running back.

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 10: @Pit.): ARSB is consistently playing right around 70% of Detroit’s offensive snaps, but it isn’t translating to a ton of fantasy production. He’s fine if you’re looking for 8-10 PPR points without upside for a lot more, but most of us should be looking for a higher ceiling. The Steelers have allowed double-digit PPR games to several slot WRs this year - Cole Beasley, Randall Cobb, Hunter Renfrow, and Tyler Boyd – but St. Brown will likely need to find the end zone to make him a worthwhile start. He’s yet to do that all season.

WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 10: vs. Car.): It’s a new week, but it’s the same story for Rondale, who just isn’t seeing deep enough targets to put up fantasy points. He’s topped 40 scrimmage yards just once since his breakout game in week 2. The Panthers have allowed the 5^th-fewest yards after catch this season, making this an unlikely spot for a surprise big performance.

WR Anthony Schwartz, CLE (Wk. 10: @NE): Schwartz did see a jump in playing time in week 9 with Odell Beckham Jr. given the boot. He played more than 50% of the offensive snaps but garnered just one target that he hauled in for 15 yards last week. The Browns are likely to use him as a situational deep threat the rest of the way, but the Patriots aren’t especially vulnerable to the deep ball, allowing just 3 completions of 40+ yards this season.

WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 10: @Ari.): Marshall returned from a two-week absence to just a 37% snap share and one target despite the Panthers trailing for the majority of the game and needing to throw. Carolina also lost QB Sam Darold for the next 4+ weeks. While that could be a good thing for the Panthers’ passing game given Darnold’s struggles, the biggest beneficiaries are likely to be DJ Moore and Robby Anderson. Backup QB PJ Walker has thrown about 60% of his career pass attempts to those two receivers (42 of 71), and I expect it to be Walker under center this week as Cam gets up to speed. Keep Marshall sidelined until his production gives us a reason not to.

WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 10: @GB): I only mention Eskridge this week because he’s officially returned to practice after missing half the season due to a concussion suffered in week 1. Eskridge was being used as part-time gadget player before getting hurt in week 1, but his 2^nd round draft capital speaks to grander plans that the Seahawks may have for him. It’s worth monitoring how the Seahawks utilize him against the Packers if he’s able to return to action.

TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 10: @Ari.): I keep waiting for the week where Tremble turns his playing time into production, but he’s now played 45% or more of the offensive snaps in 4 straight games and hasn’t reached even 20 yards in any of them. He remains waiver fodder.

Rookies on bye in week 10: QB Justin Fields, CHI, QB Davis Mills, HOU, RB Khalil Herbert, CHI, RB Chris Evans, CIN, WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN, WR Kadarius Toney, NYG, WR Nico Collins, HOU, TE Brevin Jordan, HOU

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Jaret Patterson, WAS (Wk. 10: vs. TB): It’s easy to forget what a team coming off a bye did in their last game, but it was Patterson that led Washington in rushing attempts and rushing yards in week 8 against Denver, finishing with 11 carries for 46 yards. It was clear Washington was trying to limit Antonio Gibson’s snaps headed into the bye week, but it’s not clear if the bye week fixed the problem for Gibson. His practice schedule this week has mirrored what he was doing in the weeks prior to the bye, and it’s entirely possible Washington continues to severely limit his playing time coming out of it. Washington is sitting at 2-6 and is very likely to fall to 2-7 this week. It’s only a matter of time before they shut Gibson down for the season if his shin isn’t improving. Patterson is unlikely to have much success running against the stout Bucs front this week, but if he leads the backfield in carries again you probably won’t be able to get him for free for much longer in deep leagues. If you’re desperate for RB help down the stretch, Patterson is a worthwhile speculative add.

RB Kene Nwangwu, MIN (Wk. 10: @LAC): None of us like having to talk about what’s going on with Dalvin Cook right now, but there’s no avoiding the fact that it could affect his availability in the second half of the season. As of right now he’s eligible to play, but there’s no way to be certain that won’t change. Obviously, Alexander Mattison would be the biggest beneficiary on the football field if Dalvin were to miss time, but Nwangwu would start finding his way onto the field as well. The rookie is a special teams standout who returned a kick for a score last week. With Ameer Abdullah out of the way, Nwangwu would be the clear RB2 on this team behind Mattison if Dalvin does become ineligible. He’s a speculative add for deep dynasty leagues, especially those that give points for return yards.

WR Jaelon Darden, TB (Wk. 10: @Was.): The Bucs may be without both Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown this week in a matchup against the defense allowing the 2^nd-most WR points per game. Darden likely would see a healthy number of slot snaps playing behind Mike Evans and Tyler Johnson and has some PPR upside in deep leagues. Darden is a guy the Bucs have tried to get the ball to when he’s on the field. He’s seen 5 targets and 1 rushing attempt on just 25 snaps. The floor here is a goose egg, but don’t be surprised if Darden puts up 8-10 PPR points this week.

WR Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 10: vs. TB): Brown is only in play in DFS contests this week, but he should be in line for a lot of playing time in a game where game script should keep the Football Team throwing with Tampa favored by nearly 10 points. Brown missed week 5 with injury, and then returned to an 80% snap share and 6 targets in week 6 against Kansas City. The Bucs allow the 11^th-most WR points per game and have allowed the 9^th-most completions of 20+ yards in the league. Assuming he’s able to play, Dyami has reasonable upside and costs just $200 in DraftKings showdown contests for this game.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.