First of all, how is it not the playoffs yet? This extended season suddenly feels very weird. That being said, let's have a look at players who are trending up or down over the last 3 weeks (or longer). We like to look at trends to try and identify if a player is on the right or wrong track, OR if they’re close to turning things around.
Matthew Stafford (QB-LAR) - Week 10 @ SF, 11.82; Week 12 @ GB, 22.98; Week 13 vs JAC, 24.00: Stafford had a rough stretch this year in weeks 9 and 10 where he threw only 1 TD and 2 INTs each game and put up his two lowest fantasy point totals of the season. The Rams then had a bye week and it seems like Stafford worked a few things out, because he’s thrown 3 touchdowns in each of the two games he’s had since the bye. While it does feel like he’s turned a corner, I would be very cautious with starting him against the Cardinals, especially if you have to win this week to make the playoffs. If you’re already in, then hold on to Stafford, because his schedule for the playoffs is very nice, playing Seattle, Minnesota, and Baltimore, all in the top half of fantasy points against to opposing QBs.
Javonte Williams (RB-DEN) - Week 10 vs PHI, 5.9; Week 12 vs LAC, 18.6, Week 13 @ KC, 26.8: Williams has been one of the most talked about rookie RBs this season due to his seemingly untapped potential. Williams has also been one of the best RBs after contact this season, and finally the Broncos have let him loose. He has had his best two fantasy weeks since the Broncos bye in Week 11. With Melvin Gordon is out, he’s also seeing a huge amount of touches - 29 last week! He had 178 yards from scrimmage, 6 receptions and scored a TD against the Chiefs, good for 26.8 points and the RB1 spot in Week 13. Coming up, the Broncos will probably get Gordon back this week, but the RB split should now be in favor of Williams. Three of his next 4 matchups are against teams giving up top 6 points to opposing RBs. Williams is on a true trend up and will probably be a high draft pick next year.
James Robinson (RB-JAC) - Week 11 vs SF, 10.8; Week 12 vs ATL, 11.0, Week 13 @ LAR, 2.0: While this isn’t a textbook example of the trend we’re looking for, it’s clear that Robinson’s production had been sliding downward after a really nice stretch earlier in the season. This last week he only had 9 touches in a game that, while a blowout, he should have had lots more work. It appears that Robinson could be in the doghouse. There were reports that during the game, Carlos Hyde needed a breather and Robinson was not put in for him. Robinson has a rough matchup this week against Tennessee, so sitting him wouldn't be a bad move. His next two games are great matchups, so firing him up if he gets more work in Week 14 is the right move. Then he faces the Patriots in the fantasy championship, which is never a fun matchup for anyone.
Russell Gage (WR-ATL) - Week 11 vs NE, 7.40, Week 12 @ JAC, 15.20, Week 13 vs TB, 16.50: The Falcons passing game finally seems to have a focal point, and it’s Russell Gage. Gage has 22 receptions in the last 3 games to go with 27 targets (he had 26 targets in the other 5 games he played in this year). Anyone getting 9 targets per week is going to be on everyone’s fantasy radar, and it helps that he’s either scored a TD or gone over 100 yards in each of the last two games. Gage should continue to get peppered with targets as opposing defenses are forced to focus on Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Pitts.
Chase Claypool (WR-PIT) - Week 11 @ LAC, 11.90, Week 12 @ CIN, 9.70, Week 13 vs BAL, 6.40: It’s possible that Claypool is banged up - the rumor is that he has a foot injury, though he practiced yesterday and hasn’t missed any games recently. Regardless, Claypool has not had a very good season, only going over 100 yards and scoring 1 TD all season (that was the same game. He only has 2 other games with double digit points. Claypool’s targets have gone from 9 to 8 to 3 over the last 3 weeks, and last week he played only 63% of offensive snaps, his lowest total since week 5 (and second lowest total for the season). Claypool has only 10 receptions and 3 rushes (for 3 yards) over the last 3 weeks, so he’s not getting the work that you want to see from a guy who was drafted as a WR3 (26th WR taken). Claypool has fantastic matchups for the next 2 weeks, and the 2 after that are still favorable, so it’s going to be tough to keep him on the bench, despite his poor performance recently.
