Welcome back to the Rookie Report! If you thought surviving last week’s Covid nightmare week was fun, how about we do it all over again? Week 16’s news updates have included an onslaught of positive Covid tests and have left a lot of playoff fantasy rosters scrambling. We already saw last week how rookies like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Justin Fields can be useful fill-ins, and there are certainly going to be more rookies that can help fill gaps in week 16. I’m here to walk you through what to expect from the rookie crop in this crucial fantasy week.
A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game numbers and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 16…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 16: @KC): Harris has posted a couple duds in recent weeks, including an awful game last week against the Titans, but he should be in line for a bounce back game against the Chiefs. Kansas City has allowed the 12th-most running back points per game and has given up the 5th-most RB receptions and 3rd-most RB receiving yards. Najee is tied with Austin Ekeler for the 2nd-most RB receptions this season. His workload isn’t going anywhere. Najee is still a top-12 RB play this week despite some recent down games. You have to keep starting him.
WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 16: @NO): Waddle has hauled in 8 or more receptions in 4 of his last 5 games played, and the Saints have allowed the 7th-most WR points per game. Marshon Lattimore isn’t going to cover Waddle in the slot. Don’t overthink this one. Waddle is a WR2 this weekend.
WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 16: vs. Bal.): You might not be still in the fantasy playoffs if you were relying on Chase last week, but you have to go back to the well again this week if you’re still alive. Chase has too high of a ceiling to leave him on your bench. The Ravens lost Marlon Humphrey to a season-ending pec injury a couple weeks ago, and this week will be without Jimmy Smith on the Covid list. The Bengals are going to try to take some deep shots to take advantage, and Chase topped 200 receiving yards against the Ravens when their corners were healthy. You’ll be kicking yourself if he scores 20+ points from your bench.
Borderline Rookies I Would Lean Toward Starting:
QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 16: @Sea.): Fields has finished as a top-10 QB in each of his last 4 full games played, and there’s no reason he can’t make it 5-for-5 this week. The Seahawks have allowed the 10th-fewest QB points per game, but they rank just 28th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat. They’ve allowed the 5th-fewest QB rushing yards, but most of the QBs they’ve faced have been statues. They’ve faced only 6 QBs all season with more than 100 rushing yards on the year, and 4 of them ran for more than 20 yards against the Seahawks. Fields will have his usual rushing upside, and he’ll have a chance to throw a bunch as well with the Bears a touchdown underdog. If you’re looking for a streaming QB this week, Fields would be a good option again.
RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 16: @LV): Williams continues to split the backfield with Melvin Gordon, but it hasn’t stopped him from coming on strong late in the season. Williams has topped 80 scrimmage yards in 4 of his last 5 games, 4 of which Melvin Gordon was active for. The Raiders allow the 3rd-most RB points per game, and the running back pool is a little depleted this week with Austin Ekeler, Dalvin Cook and Elijah Mitchell all likely sidelined. The Broncos are likely to lean on the ground game even more than usual with Drew Lock under center. I’d look at Javonte as a mid-range RB2 with the upside for a lot more.
RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 16: vs. Jax.): Carter split the backfield with Tevin Coleman in his return from IR last week, but I’d expect him to take more of a lead role as he’s another week removed from his injury, and the Jaguars allow the 13th-most RB points per game. The Jets are actually favored for once, so I’d expect them to be able to run the ball a bit more than usual, so a lead back role for Carter probably means 15+ touches against a middling run defense. He’s not an auto-start this week, but he’s a top-24 option at the position this week.
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 16: @Atl.): This is contingent on Jared Goff getting cleared from the Covid list in time for this game, but ARSB should be a solid WR3 this week if that happens. He may not see another dozen targets if D’Andre Swift is able to get cleared to play, but he’ll still be the top target among the wide receivers against a defense that allows the 3rd-most wide receiver points per game. He’s a safe bet for 8+ targets in a plus matchup no matter who is at QB for the Lions, but if it’s Tim Boyle, I’d view him more as a WR4 than WR3. The Falcons slot corner Richie Grant has allowed a passer rating of 111.6 and 8.2 yards per target on throws into his coverage. Editor's note: As of Friday morning, Goff is unlikely to start.
TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 16: vs. Det.): Pitts hasn’t set the world on fire in recent weeks, but he’s earned 6+ targets in all but 2 games this season, and the Lions defense ranks 26th in pass defense DVOA and is just a middling defense against tight ends, allowing the 15th-most points per game to the position. If you don’t have a top-8 tight end, you’re going to have a hard time finding an option who has a higher yardage floor than Pitts. Pitts is one of the few tight ends once you get past the studs who could give you a strong performance without finding the end zone.
Borderline Rookies I Would Lean Toward Sitting:
QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 16: vs. Buf.): It’s safe to assume that Jones is going to throw the ball more than 3 times in this go-round with the Bills, but he still is unlikely to be a good fantasy option. Big Ben Roethlisberger scored 12.04 fantasy points against the Bills in week 1. That is still the most fantasy points any QB has scored against the Bills without scoring a rushing touchdown, and Mac hasn’t scored a rushing TD since early last season at Alabama. He also may be playing without Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne this week. Jones should be considered a low-end QB2 for this week.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 16: vs. Buf.): Damien Harris is practicing in a limited capacity this week, and Stevenson is sitting out of practice with an illness (not Covid-19 as far as we know). I’d expect both to be active this week, but I don’t expect Stevenson to provide a useful fantasy day without finding his way into the end zone. In New England’s first meeting with Buffalo, the Patriots asserted their will in the ground game and Stevenson handled 24 rushing attempts. Rhamondre finished that week as the RB28. I wouldn’t expect much more than that this week in a game where the Patriots are sure to throw the ball more often than the first meeting.
RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 16: vs. TB): The potential return of Sam Darnold makes Hubbard a better play this week than he was last week, but Matt Rhule announced this week that Cam Newton and Darnold will both play in this game, making it too muddy of a situation to trust Hubbard in the fantasy playoffs. Ameer Abdullah has fully taken over the passing down role in the offense since Christian McCaffrey went down with injury, and Hubbard splits the rushing work with Newton whenever Cam is on the field. Chuba handled 19 touches in the last 2 weeks while Cam rushed the ball 25 times himself. Even if we knew Hubbard was getting all of the rushing work to himself, the Panthers are 11-point underdogs and will be throwing a bunch, and the Bucs allow the 3rd-fewest rushing yards per game. Hubbard would be a dicey RB3 option if Darnold was going to be under center all game. With Cam and Darnold splitting the QB job, Hubbard is an even worse play than that.
WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 16: vs. NYG): Smith hasn’t seen more than 6 targets come his way in the last 7 games, and this week is shaping up as a week where the Eagles probably won’t have to throw much. The Giants rank just 28th in run defense DVOA and will be playing with a backup QB. Philly should have no problem running it down their throats. Smith will also likely be shadowed by James Bradberry, who held him to 2 catches and 22 yards on 4 targets in the last meeting between these teams. Smith’s ceiling has been lowered in recent weeks due to Dallas Goedert’s increased receiving usage and the team’s run-heavy approach, and this game has all the makings of being a floor week for Smith.
WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 16: @Cin.): Bateman was on the field for almost every offensive snap in week 15 with Sammy Watkins sidelined, but Tyler Huntley only had eyes for Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown in the passing game, as that duo combined for a nearly 70% target share. I’d expect those targets to be a little more spread out in this one, but Bateman has been held under 40 yards in 4 of his last 5 games. There is upside for Bateman this week - the Ravens are a 3-point underdog, Sammy Watkins is on the Covid reserve list this week, and the Bengals fielding just a middling pass defense, but the floor is low as well. I’d look for a safer option than Bateman in the fantasy playoffs.
WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 16: vs. LAC): Collins has been much more involved for the Texans in recent weeks, with 20 targets in the last 4 weeks, but this week he faces a Chargers’ defense that allows the 2nd-fewest WR points per game, and he’s topped 30 receiving yards just once in his last 6 games. Collins may see 6+ targets in this game with the Chargers heavily favored, but it’s hard to count on him returning more than WR4 production in this crucial week.
WR Josh Palmer, LAC (Wk. 16: @Hou.): The Chargers placed Jalen Guyton on the Covid list this week, which should open up playing time for Palmer if Guyton can’t get cleared before this game. I still wouldn’t expect a big week for Palmer. The Chargers are nearly double-digit favorites in this game, so they should lean on the run game, even if Austin Ekeler is out, and the Texans are much more susceptible to the run than the pass. They rank 10th in pass defense DVOA. Palmer will still be no better than 3rd in the target pecking order in this game. It would be a pleasant surprise if Palmer tops 50 yards in this game.
TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 16: @KC): Freiermuth suffered a concussion in week 15 and might not clear the protocol in time to face the Chiefs. If he does get cleared, this isn’t a slam-dunk start for him. Muth has gotten by on touchdowns. He’s failed to top 50 yards in any game since week 6, but he’s found the end zone 6 times in the last 8 games. Kansas City hasn’t allowed a tight end touchdown since week 8. The Steelers could be forced to throw a bunch as a 10-point underdog, but I’d still view Freiermuth as a fringe TE1 play if he’s able to go. I’d be looking for a higher upside option in the fantasy playoffs. Zach Gentry would have a little deep league appeal if Pat is out.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 16: vs. Jax.): This is a favorable matchup for Wilson against a defense that ranks 31st in pass defense DVOA, but he’s still playing without his top 2 wide receivers and hasn’t been a trustworthy fantasy option. Wilson has averaged just 186 passing yards per game since returning from IR and has accounted for more than 1 score in just 3 games all season. The Jets are actually favored to win this game, which may mean even lower passing volume than usual. He’s only worth consideration if you’re desperate for a QB2.
QB Ian Book, NO (Wk. 16: vs. Mia.): Book is likely to make his first start this week with Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian both on the Covid reserve list, but he shouldn’t be in your fantasy lineups. The Dolphins have given up an average of fewer than 12 QB fantasy points per game during their 6-game winning streak, and the Saints will likely be conservative with the game plan and try to win behind their defense and Alvin Kamara. There is a little bit of Konami code rushing upside to Book’s game. He ran for over 1,000 total rushing yards in his last two seasons at Notre Dame, so he’ll be interesting in showdown contests if the price is right, but there are currently no showdown prices posted on DraftKings for this game. Book is a bottom-of-the-barrel play in season-long leagues.
RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 16: vs. NYG): Gainwell was an afterthought in the Philly offense last week in a comfortable win against a shorthanded Washington team, with Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard handling the backfield work, and I’d expect similar usage this week unless the Eagles pull away and blow the Giants out. Philly is a 10-point favorite, so that’s entirely possible, but it’s not something I’d want to rely on in the playoffs.
RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 16: @Sea.): Herbert did get some extended run in hurry-up mode late on Monday night, catching 3 passes for 34 yards, and the Bears may try to get him more involved with their season essentially over. He’s still averaged just 3 touches per game since David Montgomery returned from IR (no more than 5 touches in any single game). I wouldn’t be seriously considering him anywhere unless we get word that the Bears are going to cut back on Monty’s usage down the stretch.
RB Jaret Patterson, WAS (Wk. 16: @Dal.): Patterson scored his first NFL touchdown on Tuesday night, but he’s still not seeing a ton of playing time as Antonio Gibson has taken over a bigger share of the backfield workload with JD McKissic sidelined. Gibson has played more than two-thirds of the offensive snaps in each of the last 4 games, and Patterson has totaled just 10 touches in the 3 games that McKissic has missed. The Cowboys allow the 3rd-fewest RB points per game, so Patterson is unlikely to do much damage on only a handful of touches.
RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 16: @GB): Felton was on the field for more than 50% of the Browns’ offensive snaps last week with the team drastically shorthanded at wide receiver and tight end due to a Covid outbreak, but it led to just 4 targets, 3 catches and 16 yards. Keep an eye on the injury updates, but I’d expect Jarvis Landry and Austin Hooper to each return this week, which would push Felton back to the bench. He’s a low-upside dart throw if both remain sidelined again.
RB Jermar Jefferson, DET (Wk. 16: @Atl.): Jefferson already isn’t getting onto the field behind Craig Reynolds and Godwin Igwebuike (9 total snaps in the last two weeks). Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift may both be back this week. A healthy scratch is very possible for Jermar.
RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 16: vs. Bal.): Evans returned from his ankle injury last week but logged just 6 snaps and zero touches. He’s got some work to do to get back into the mix in the Bengals’ backfield.
RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 16: @Ten.): If you missed the news, Mitchell has been ruled out for Thursday night’s tilt with the Titans. It’ll be Jeff Wilson, JaMycal Hasty and Deebo Samuel manning the 49ers’ backfield again on Thursday.
WR Ben Skowronek, LAR (Wk. 16: @Min.): Skowronek played his best game of the season on Tuesday night, but it was likely just a blip on the radar for him. He hauled in 4 passes for 42 yards on 5 targets but was on the field for just 21 snaps. You can’t rely on that kind of production repeating itself on that kind of playing time, even against a Minnesota defense that allows the most wide receiver points per game. A repeat of last week’s performance would be a pleasant surprise.
WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 16: vs. Ind.): Rondale has one game of 50+ scrimmage yards in his last 9 contests, and now is battling through an ankle injury that held him out of practice early in the week. There’s no reason to expect a breakout game this week against a Colts’ defense that’s in the top half of the league at limiting WR fantasy points.
WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 16: @Phi.): Toney has a chance to finally return to action this week, but he’s had a 5-week layoff and will be facing a defense that allows the 3rd-fewest wide receiver points per game. He also may have Jake Fromm at quarterback. I wouldn’t count on him this week.
WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 16: vs. Chi.): Tyler Lockett has been cleared to return from the Covid reserve list, so Eskridge moves back into a timeshare for the WR3 role with Freddie Swain this week. The rookie had a chance at a big game last week – he was targeted deep downfield 4 times but failed to convert any of them into catches. I wouldn’t expect him to see that kind of opportunity this week with Lockett back, even in a plus matchup against the Bears.
WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 16: vs. TB): Marshall hasn’t caught a pass since week 6 and hasn’t been targeted more than twice in a game since week 5. Even if the Panthers’ passing game improves with the return of Sam Darnold, you can’t trust Marshall in any lineups.
WR Anthony Schwartz, CLE (Wk. 16: @GB): Schwartz returned last Monday after missing 3 games with a concussion, but he played just 13 snaps and wasn’t targeted despite the Browns being short-handed at wide receiver. It’s possible that his playing time gets ramped up as he gets further away from the injury, but I’d expect Jarvis Landry back this week as well. Steer clear until we see more from Schwartz.
WRs Dyami Brown & Dax Milne, WAS (Wk. 16: @Dal.): Over Washington’s last 5 games, Milne and Brown have combined for 4 targets, 3 receptions, and 9 receiving yards. Don’t even consider it.
WR Dez Fitzpatrick, TEN (Wk. 16: vs. SF): Fitzpatrick missed week 15 on the Covid list, but even if he returns this week, I wouldn’t expect a substantial role in the offense. AJ Brown could return this week, and Julio Jones came back last weekend. Even if Fitzpatrick gets cleared and AJ Brown can’t play Thursday night, Fitzpatrick will have missed practice all week and likely won’t be part of the game plan.
WR Ihmir Smith-Marsette, MIN (Wk. 16: vs. LAR): Smith-Marsette managed to score his first touchdown last week, but he did so with both Adam Thielen and Dede Westbrook sidelined. Westbrook was cleared to return from the Covid list Tuesday and Thielen is expected back as well. Ihmir would be lucky to play any offensive snaps this week.
TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (WK. 16: vs. TB): Tremble gets a decent matchup this week against a bottom-10 tight end defense, but he’s reached 25 receiving yards just twice all year and the Panthers’ revolving door at QB this week is going to make it tough for Tremble to have a breakout game.
TE John Bates, WAS (Wk. 16: @Dal.): Bates has played more than 60% of the Washington’s offensive snaps in each of the 2 games since Ricky Seals-Jones returned from IR and came up a yard short of a touchdown on Tuesday night, but RSJ is the tight end to consider in this offense. Seals-Jones has been targeted 11 times in the last two games. Bates has been targeted 3 times. You’d have to be pretty desperate to be considering Bates this week.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 16: vs. LAC): Mills was the 8th QB selected in this year’s NFL draft, but he’s outperformed most of the QBs selected ahead of him and gets a better matchup this week than you think. The Chargers have allowed 16+ fantasy points to each QB they’ve faced in the last 7 games, a stretch that included matchups with Mike Glennon and Teddy Bridgewater. Davis has averaged 18 fantasy points per game in his last 3 starts. There’s downside, but Mills is a sneaky QB2 option this week for an improving Texans’ offense.
QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 16: @NYJ): I know, there’s no way to trust T-Law in your fantasy playoffs after he’s accounted for just 1 touchdown in his last 7 games, but if a breakthrough is ever going to happen this season, it’s probably going to happen this week. The Jets have allowed multiple touchdowns (passing or rushing) to each of the last 10 QBs they’ve faced, and this week they’re likely to be without 6 defensive starters due to Covid-19, including 3 defensive backs. The Jaguars are undoubtedly going to lean on James Robinson in this game, but Lawrence has a real chance to finish as a top-15 QB this week. Of course, there’s risk given Lawrence’s recent performances, but there’s upside as well.
RB Kene Nwangwu, MIN (Wk. 16: vs. LAR): Nwangwu looked impressive on limited touches on Monday night, and he could be in line for expanded touches this week after Dalvin Cook tested positive for Covid this week. Alexander Mattison was activated from the Covid reserve list this week, and he’ll undoubtedly be the lead back, but Nwangwu only needs a few touches to have a chance to make an impact with his speed. He’s a sneaky option for DFS contests this week. With Cook being unvaccinated, there is a chance that he doesn’t get cleared for week 17 either, this could be a multi-week role for Kene.
RB Larry Rountree III, LAC (Wk. 16: @Hou.): Disregard this if Austin Ekeler gets himself cleared from the Covid list, but there could be an opening for Rountree to have a role this week if Ekeler’s out. Rountree has been a healthy scratch in 3 of the last 4 weeks, but Joshua Kelley’s goal line fumble against the Chiefs may have opened the door for him. I’d expect Justin Jackson to function as the lead back (Austin Ekeler himself even said you should pick up Jackson on his weekly Yahoo! Fantasy football show this week), but Rountree could take over short-yardage and goal line situations. Houston ranks 27th in run defense DVOA and has allowed 6 running back rushing scores in the last 3 weeks. You can’t use Rountree in the fantasy playoffs, but he costs just $200 in showdown contests on DraftKings.
TE Brevin Jordan, HOU (Wk. 16: vs. LAC): Jordan was active last week after battling through a hand injury during the week but didn’t play a single offensive snap. He’s practicing in full ahead of this week’s game with the Chargers. Jordan was targeted 11 times in weeks 13 & 14, and no team allows more points per target to tight ends than the Chargers. Los Angeles has also allowed a league-high 12 tight end scores. Jordan has more upside than usual this week, and has a great chance to finish as a top-15 TE for the week.
TE Noah Gray, KC (Wk. 16: vs. Pit.): Travis Kelce and Blake Bell are both currently on the Covid reserve list, which means Gray steps in as the starting tight end this week if neither can get cleared to return, and we know the tight end is an integral part of this offense. Gray obviously wouldn’t be the same focal point that Kelce is, but he’s likely to see a handful of targets come his way. The Steelers are a tough matchup, allowing the 8th-fewest tight end points per game, but Gray could make a great bargain basement DFS option this week.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend and helps you advance in the fantasy playoffs. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
