Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 2 was another wild one around the NFL. We saw two huge comebacks from the Jets and Dolphins, and a near comeback by the Falcons in another weekend that made us question everything we think we know about the NFL. One of the big early season takeaways in fantasy has been that the top wide receivers have outperformed the top running backs, and that has held true for the rookies as well. All 5 first-round rookie WRs have flashed the potential that made them day 1 picks, but among the rookie running backs only Breece Hall has logged a top-20 finish at the position. Have those receivers done enough to warrant a starting spot in your fantasy lineups? That’s what I’m here to dive into today, along with all the other fantasy relevant rookies.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.

Let’s get into week 3…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 3: @Sea.): I’ve seen enough from London through 2 weeks to move him into auto-start territory. He’s topped 70 yards in both games so far, and topped 80% route participation, a 20% target share, and a 30% air yard share in each. London is the #1 target in this passing game, not Kyle Pitts. Seattle ranks 26^th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat, and they’ve allowed 3 different perimeter receivers to top 60 yards in the first 2 weeks. London should be #4, and he should be in your lineups unless you have nothing but studs ahead of him.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (Wk. 3: @Chi.): Lovie Smith stayed true to his word when he talked about wanting to get Pierce more involved in week 2. Pierce played the role we thought he was ticketed for in week 1, handling 63% of the offensive snaps and 79% of the team rushing attempts. He also handled the team’s only rushing attempt inside the opponent’s 5-yard line. That role didn’t amount to a huge fantasy day against a solid Denver defense, but Pierce acquitted himself well and gets to face a much weaker opponent in week 3. The Bears have allowed the 11^th-most RB points per game and rank 24^th in run defense DVOA. The Texans are only 2.5-point underdogs, so they should keep game script neutral enough to keep running. Pierce is a good bet for 15+ touches in a plus matchup. He’s a borderline RB2 this week.

WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 3: vs. Cin.): Wilson posted the strongest rookie performance of the season to-date last Sunday, piling up 8-102-2 on 14 targets in a riveting comeback win against the Browns. It’s true that his day wouldn’t have been quite as impressive if Nick Chubb had just gone down at the 1-yard line at the 2-minute warning, but Wilson had already done enough to be the PPR WR16 for the week prior to that play. The biggest issue for Wilson moving forward is that he plays in a crowded passing attack. Both Elijah Moore and Corey Davis were on the field more than Wilson in the first two weeks, and Moore may be due for a get-right game. The Jets move their WRs around enough that no individual matchup should be too concerning, but the corner Wilson projects to face off with the most, Mike Hilton, has been the Bengals best cover corner through the first two weeks. The Bengals still rank just 24^th in pass defense DVOA as a unit and Wilson’s performance last weekend demonstrated that he can be fired up as an upside WR3 going forward. It wouldn’t be crazy if Wilson emerged as the Jets’ WR1 this season.

WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 3: @Car.): Olave’s final stat line from week 2 looked solid on its own, but the underlying usage that came with it hints at bigger things to come for the rookie. Olave ran more routes than Jarvis Landry for the 2^nd straight game, and he earned a 33% target share and a whopping 62% air yardage share. He also boasted a 56% target share on third downs. Jameis Winston is looking for Olave early and often, he’s looking for him deep, and he’s looking for him in clutch moments. There is plenty of competition for targets in this offense with Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, and Jarvis Landry around, but Olave is going to play a big role all year. The Panthers look like a daunting matchup, allowing the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game, but they’ve faced two lackluster passing attacks in the Jacoby Brissett-led Browns and the Daniel Jones-led Giants. I expect the Saints to have more success throwing the ball than either of those teams did, and I expect the Panthers to play more aggressively than they did in the first two weeks. The Panthers blitzed on just 16% of their defensive plays in the first two weeks, 6^th-lowest in the NFL, but they were at 33.7% last season (3^rd-highest). If they blitz more on Sunday, it should give Olave more one-on-one matchups that he can turn into big plays. He could have huge upside as your WR3 in this one.

WR Treylon Burks, TEN (Wk. 3: vs. LV): Burks still isn’t getting on the field as much as you’d like him to if you’re going to trust him in lineups, but his playing time made a big leap in week 2 and the Titans are going out of their way to get him the ball when he’s in the game. The total snaps look similar from week 1 to week 2, but Burks was on the field for just 36% of the Titans’ passing plays in week 1, and that number jumped to 66% in week two prior to the starters being pulled in garbage time. He’s also being targeted on a ridiculous 38% of his routes run. Many of those targets have been in space where Burks can run after the catch – 60% of his yards on the season have been after the catch – and the Raiders have allowed the 7^th-most yards after catch in the league and rank just 21^st in pass defense DVOA. There is a boom-or-bust element to Burks given his inconsistent usage so far, but this looks like a great spot for him to post 12+ PPR points.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

RB Breece Hall, NYJ (Wk. 3: vs. Cin.): Hall has continued to impress when he gets opportunities. He checked in as the PPR RB14 in week 2 on just 8 touches, but there are underlying reasons for concern about his usage. Hall was on the field for just 27% of the offensive snaps and saw his target number drop from 10 in week 1 down to 1 in week 2 as Ty Johnson got into the mix and made this a 3-man backfield. The Bengals have allowed the 11^th-fewest RB points per game, holding Najee Harris to 25 scrimmage yards and a TD on 12 touches week 1, then holding Zeke Elliott to 49 yards on 16 touches in week 2. Only Tony Pollard has really played well against them through two weeks, and nearly half of Pollard’s PPR production came through the air. If you trust Hall in your lineup this week, you’d have to be expecting a bounce-back in his playing time, or you’d have to be counting on him doing a lot of damage on just a few touches.  I’d view him as a low-end RB3 in this one.

RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 3: @Sea.): Allgeier stepped into a sizable role in week 2 with Damien Williams on IR. He drew the same number of rushing attempts as C-Patt, but didn’t do a ton with them, finishing with just 30 yards on 10 carries. The matchup this week might look appealing with Seattle allowing the 4^th-most RB PPR points per game, but they rank 8^th in run defense DVOA and have given up more than half of those RB points through the air. Allgeier is not a factor in the passing game. Vegas has this game as a Pick’Em, so game script should be neutral enough that Atlanta can keep running, but without a passing down role you’re just hoping for a touchdown from Allgeier if you play him.

RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 3: vs. Atl.): Walker made his NFL debut in week 2, but for the time being he appears to have a low value role in a bad offense. Walker split the early down work with Rashaad Penny, handling 4 carries and 3 targets on Sunday. Only one of those opportunities came on a 3^rd down. Travis Homer continues to see the most valuable snaps, playing 93% of the short down and distance snaps, 93% of the long down and distance snaps, and 100% of the 2-minute drill snaps so far this season. The Seahawks’ offense isn’t one where you want to be chasing part-time players, especially if they aren’t seeing the most valuable work. Through two weeks Seattle ranks dead last in plays run, 31^st in offensive yards, and 29^th in points scored. Steer clear of Walker, even in a seemingly good matchup against a bad Falcons’ defense.

RB Jordan Mason, SF (Wk. 3: @Den.): The 49ers made sure to get multiple RBs involved last week with Elijah Mitchell sidelined, as Jeff Wilson Jr. and Tyrion Davis-Price split the backfield work fairly evenly against the Seahawks. After the game it was announced that TDP suffered a high ankle sprain that will sideline him for multiple weeks. Mason should be the next man up, but it remains to be seen if he’ll see a similar split of the rushing work with Wilson, and the 49ers did promote Marlon Mack from the practice squad to the active roster. I’d be surprised if Mason logs zero offensive touches for a third straight game, but his role is very uncertain in a matchup with a Denver team that has allowed the 2^nd-fewest RB points per game. You can find better options.

RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 3: @Ind.): With no garbage time work to be had in week 2 for Pacheco, his playing time dropped to just 5 snaps last Thursday. He carried twice for 6 yards. Kansas City is a touchdown favorite in this game, so there’s a chance at garbage time against a Colts team that looked lifeless against the Jaguars last weekend, but the Colts do rank 3^rd in run defense DVOA. This isn’t a game where garbage time work is likely to add up to a useful fantasy game.

WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 3: vs. Phi.): Dotson has been fantastic for the first two weeks of the season, finishing as a top-20 WR each week, but I don’t like his chances to make it 3-for-3. The Eagles pose a much tougher matchup than either the Jaguars or Lions presented. Curtis Samuel will handle most of the slot work, which means Dotson will mostly work against Darius Slay and James Bradberry on the perimeter. Through two games the Eagles have allowed a total of 22.7 PPR points to receivers lined up on the perimeter per Sports Info Solutions. Curtis Samuel has led the Commanders in targets in each of the first two weeks, and the defensive matchup in this one should persuade the Commanders to repeat that in week 3. If you start Dotson, you’re praying for him to find the end zone again, and Philly has allowed just 2 wide receiver scores through 2 weeks.

WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 3: @Cle.): I fell into the trap last weekend of believing that Pickens could be a beneficiary of the Patriots focusing on slowing Diontae Johnson, but the rookie finished with just 1 catch on 3 targets. Week 3 seems to set up the same way with the Browns possibly shadowing Johnson with their #1 CB Denzel Ward. Ward hasn’t been used as a shadow corner so far in 2022, but he was used in that capacity against Diontae last season. Pickens is a full-time player, running a route on more than 90% of the team dropbacks in each of the first 2 weeks, and the Browns have allowed the 7^th-most WR points per game. There is upside for a useful fantasy day here for Pickens, but it’s hard to count on him seeing meaningful targets right now. Pittsburgh is using him as a decoy to clear underneath space for the other receivers. Steelers’ beat writer Mark Kaboly noted that Pickens has run 62 routes with vertical releases out of 74 total routes run, and that for all but a handful of those he had single coverage with no safety help, and he’s still only seen 5 targets come his way.

WRs Romeo Doubs & Christian Watson, GB (Wk. 3: @TB): With Allen Lazard back in action in week 2, both Doubs and Watson became a lot harder to trust in fantasy. Lazard immediately came back to a 90% route participation rate in his return, and among the other WRs only Sammy Watkins registered even a 50% rate. No one other than Lazard has a safe weekly role right now. The Bucs have allowed the 8^th-fewest WR points per game so far and rank 10^th in pass defense DVOA, so this is a bad matchup to hope for one of the rookies to post a good performance despite their limited playing time. There was an update Thursday that all of Lazard, Watkins and Watson were held out of practice, but reports have made it sound like it was a coordinated day off for all 3, and shouldn’t be a concern for their availability Sunday.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Malik Willis, TEN (Wk. 3: vs. LV): I mention Willis here because he saw some live action in week 2 as the Titans were blown out in Buffalo. He looked as overmatched as a 3^rd-round rookie should in his first NFL action, completing just 1-of-4 passes for 6 yards and losing a fumble. Willis does offer a ton of rushing upside if he gets the opportunity to play, and you may be thinking the 0-2 Titans could make a switch if things continue to spiral, but you should pump the brakes here. The Titans are the reigning #1 seed in the AFC and they won’t be quick to throw in the towel. Tannehill is going to get several more weeks to right the ship before Willis will be given a chance, barring injury.

RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 3: vs. GB): White isn’t getting enough opportunity behind Leonard Fournette right now to have standalone value in fantasy lineups. As the season progresses, he should get work in garbage time and should see pass-catching opportunities when the team is playing from behind, but with the Bucs favored by just 1 point this week, I don’t expect White to get many opportunities against Green Bay. Keep him sidelined this week.

RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 3: @Mia.): Cook got some additional run in week 2 compared to his usage in the opener, but much of it came in garbage time after the Bills had already vanquished the Titans. He rushed 11 times for 53 yards in the game, but 10 of those carries came on the last two drives of the game in the 4^th quarter. He’s still behind Devin Singletary and Zack Moss on the depth chart, and no team has allowed fewer RB fantasy points through two weeks than the Dolphins.

RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 3: @Cle.): Warren remains a guy you should be holding onto as a handcuff to Najee Harris, but he has very little standalone value if Harris is playing. Warren handled just 4 carries and 1 target last week, and I wouldn’t expect much more than that this week.

RBs Zander Horvath & Isaiah Spiller, LAC (Wk. 3: vs. Jax.): Spiller has been inactive in each of the first two weeks of the season, so I’m not worried anyone will start him, but I want to make sure none of you are planning to get cute with Zander Horvath after he scored a TD in each of the first two games of the season. He played a total of 23 snaps in those games and has 4 touches to his name. You likely get less than 2 fantasy points if he doesn’t manage to find his way into the end zone again.

WR Kyle Philips, TEN (Wk. 3: vs. LV): Philips was a hot waiver wire name after he led the Titans in targets, catches and receiving yards in week 1, but he went from the penthouse to the outhouse in week 2. The rookie played just 23 offensive snaps on Monday night, earning just 1 target for a 5-yard catch. He seems to be clearly working as the WR4 behind Robert Woods, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Treylon Burks. It appears his two turnovers in the first two games may have put a dent in his playing time. I’d steer clear, even against a Vegas defense that has allowed the 3^rd-most PPR points to wide receivers lined up in the slot (per Sports Info Solutions).

WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 3: vs. Pit.): Bell saw an uptick in his usage in week 2, nearly doubling his route participation rate from 21% in week 1 to 39% on Sunday, but he was targeted just once. The simple fact here is that you can’t rely on any wide receivers in this offense other than Amari Cooper as long as Jacoby Brissett is under center. Bell could be an intriguing stash in PPR leagues later in the year as the end of Deshaun Watson’s suspension nears.

WR Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG (Wk. 3: vs. Dal.): Wan’Dale missed week 2 with injury, and it seems to be up in the air whether he’ll be able to return this week or not. He still wasn’t practicing as of Thursday. This WR group is in flux for week 3. Kadarius Toney is battling an injury alongside Robinson, and veteran Kenny Golladay is airing his frustrations with his role publicly. There could be a role for Robinson if he’s able to play, but not one you can trust in fantasy lineups. The Cowboys rank 2^nd in pass defense DVOA.

WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 3: @Ind.): Moore was on the field for just 2 offensive snaps in week 2. He’s currently operating as the team’s WR5 and punt returner. You can hold in deeper leagues. His role is probably going to grow eventually, especially after OC Eric Bieniemy guaranteed that he would play more than 2 snaps moving forward, but you still can’t trust him in week 3 fantasy lineups.

WR Khalil Shakir, BUF (Wk. 3: @Mia.): Shakir found his way onto the field for 24 offensive snaps in week 2 with Gabe Davis sidelined, but he turned them into just 2 catch-less targets. Even if Davis sits again, the only hope for fantasy relevance here would be a splash play TD. Davis did get in a limited practice on Wednesday and said Thursday that he’s 100% sure he’s going to play.

WR Velus Jones Jr., CHI (Wk. 3: vs. Hou.): Jones may return from injury and make his NFL debut this week, but do you really want to consider playing the 4^th-best option in a passing game that’s averaged 14 pass attempts per game in the last 2 weeks? Believe it or not, they tried 6 FEWER passes in week 2 against the Packers than they did in the torrential downpour in week 1. Stay far away from the receiving options in this offense for now.

WR Jalen Tolbert, DAL (Wk. 3: @NYG): Tolbert has been a healthy scratch in each of the first two weeks, working behind such stalwart NFL receivers as Dennis Houston and Semi Fehoko, and his path to playing time may get a bit longer this week with the potential return of Michael Gallup. There isn’t a good reason to be holding onto Tolbert in redraft leagues at this point.

TE Daniel Bellinger, NYG (Wk. 3: vs. Dal.): Bellinger saw his first target of the season last week, and he turned it into his first career touchdown, but he remains an afterthought in this offense. The rookie was in a route on just 46% of the team’s passing dropbacks, and only saw the 1 target.

TE Trey McBride, ARI (Wk. 3: vs. LAR): McBride was active for the first time in week 2, but he was on the field for just 1 snap while Zach Ertz was targeted 11 times. McBride is waiver fodder in redraft leagues.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (Wk. 3: @Cle.): We’re getting close to the time when the Steelers may start to consider making a QB change. Their weapons are too good for this team to be averaging 255 offensive yards and less than 20 points per game, and George Pickens may have stirred up some trouble when he said after Sunday’s game that he feels like all the receivers are getting open. That seems to insinuate that the issue is the guy getting them the ball. Mike Tomlin has never had a losing record as head coach of the Steelers, and I don’t expect him to accept losing this year. If Trubisky’s poor play continues, the Steelers will give the rookie a shot sooner rather than later. In Superflex leagues you would be wise to pick him up before that switch happens rather than pay up in FAAB afterward. There’s no guarantee that Pickett will be better than Trubisky, but with these weapons he could be a low-end QB2 if he’s even a marginal upgrade over Mitch. He’d have upside for more if he’s a bigger upgrade than that.

WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 3: vs. KC): This is contingent on Michael Pittman being out again in week 3, but Pierce has some sneaky upside in a game where the Colts should be throwing plenty. With Pittman and Pierce both out in week 2, Parris Cambell led the team in routes run, but it was Ashton Dulin who was the most productive. Dulin posted 5-79 on 7 targets and seems like a guy who could carve out a role as the legit WR2 behind Pittman. Dulin’s strong game still left enough work for Dez Patmon to earn 6 targets and Mike Strachan to earn 3. Pierce was a full participant in practice to start the week and would play ahead of both Patmon and Strachan this week. The Chiefs have allowed the 9^th-most WR points per game so far, and Pierce costs just $200 in DraftKings Showdown contests this week.

TE Isaiah Likely, BAL (Wk. 3: @NE): Devin Duvernay left last Sunday’s contest with a concussion, and if he doesn’t return in time for week 3 Likely should see an uptick in targets. The Patriots’ defense focuses on limiting the opponent’s best options, so their defensive attention should be on Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman. They seemed to struggle to contain Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle but compared to Baltimore in week 2 the Pats basically shut them down, and New England held Diontae Johnson to 6-57 in week 2. Likely has emerged as a great option to be that next target, especially if Duvernay sits. Isaiah went 4-43 on 5 targets in week 2 and could be in for a bigger role in this one. He’s a risky option for season long leagues, but he’s underpriced for showdown slate contests on DraftKings at just $1,800.

TE Jake Ferguson, DAL (Wk. 3: @NYG): Dalton Schultz is battling a PCL injury that could sideline him for week 3 and possibly longer, and Ferguson would be the next man up. The matchup isn’t ideal against a Giants’ defense that has allowed the 9^th-fewest TE points so far, but Ferguson costs the minimum in DFS contests on DraftKings and will likely have a low salary in showdown contests as well. Ferguson didn’t put up gaudy receiving yardage totals in college, but he played for a Wisconsin team that didn’t throw a ton. He put up more than a 20% receiving yardage share as a freshman. Ferguson doesn’t have a high ceiling, but he’s worth a stash in deeper season-long leagues and dynasty formats on the chance that Schultz’s injury lingers.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you continue your strong start to the season or get it back on track if the first couple weeks haven’t gone your way. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.