Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re now 7 weeks into the NFL season, and in some ways, it feels like we know less now that when we started. Every week it feels like there are 2-3 games with stunning outcomes. Just in the last two weeks we’ve seen the Jets beat the Packers, the Falcons beat the 49ers, the Steelers and Panthers both beat the Bucs, the Bears top the Patriots, and the Seahawks beat the Chargers. It truly has been an “Any Given Sunday” kind of season so far, and that keeps things interesting each and every week. Hopefully, you’ve been able to navigate the chaos well enough to keep your fantasy teams afloat.
When it comes to the rookies, Chris Olave and George Pickens had nice games in week 7, but it’s the running backs who continue to dominate the rookie conversation. Breece Hall has ripped off 6 straight top-24 weekly finishes, Dameon Pierce has tallied 4 in a row, and Kenneth Walker III has posted 3 straight. Unfortunately, Breece Hall’s streak will end there as he suffered a torn ACL that will end his season and create a huge void here at the Rookie Report. Week 7 also saw the continued disappearances of rookie receivers Garrett Wilson and Drake London as their coaches continue to lean harder into the run game at the expense of opportunity for their star pass catchers. Alec Pierce could be the next rookie to fall victim to play-calling as Indy’s switch to Sam Ehlinger at QB could also signal a new, run-heavy approach. Finding start-able rookies beyond the obvious names is getting tougher each week. Let’s get into what it all means for week 8.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.
Let’s dive into 8…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 8: vs. NYG): Watching Kenneth Walker run for Seattle is enough to make you re-think the mantra that ‘running backs don’t matter.’ He’s been electric for 3 straight weeks now since Rashaad Penny suffered a season-ending injury. Walker isn’t going to provide much production in the passing game, but he’s averaged 118 rushing yards and scored 4 TDs in the last 3 weeks, good enough to rank as the RB6 in PPR points per game in that span despite just 2 catches for 13 yards. On paper, the Giants may look like a tougher matchup, allowing the 11th-fewest RB points per game, but it’s a perfect matchup for Walker. New York’s success against RBs stems from their ability to limit receiving production from the position, something Walker doesn’t get much of anyway. The Giants have allowed 8 fewer RB receptions than any other team, and the 2nd-fewest RB receiving yards for the season. They also have allowed the 3rd-most RB rushing yards and rank 30th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA. Walker could be in line for a huge game. He should be treated as a top-10 option this week at the position and feels like a bargain in DFS lineups.
WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 8: vs. LV): Any concerns you might’ve had about Olave returning from his concussion, or having to deal with Andy Dalton at QB, were put to bed pretty quickly on Thursday night. All this kid does is produce fantasy points. In the last 5 games, he’s been active for, Olave has had a 25% or higher target share, 39% or higher air yardage share, and 13+ PPR points in all of them. He’s averaging 8.8 targets per game and draws a Vegas defense that ranks 30th in pass defense DVOA. Olave is a locked-in WR2 for fantasy lineups this week.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 8: vs. Car.): The Atlanta Falcons team stat line from week 7 is jarring to look at. In a game where they trailed on every single offensive snap, and by multiple scores on all but 5 offensive snaps, the Falcons attempted just 13 passes. The commitment to running the football in the face of that negative game script was mind-boggling, especially as they struggled to have success with it. Atlanta called a run play on 16 of their 19 first down plays in the game and averaged just 2.8 yards per carry on those plays. On the 3 first down pass plays called, they put up 88 total yards and a touchdown. While the playcalling looks insane to us, it’s a good thing for Tyler Allgeier. Allgeier emerged from what had been a near 50/50 split with Caleb Huntley and handled two-thirds of the RB rushing attempts and played 62% of the offensive snaps. This week the Falcons get a matchup where the game script should be much more favorable as 6-point favorites against the Panthers. Carolina allows the 13th-most RB points per game, and Cordarrelle Patterson is still at least one more week away from returning. If Allgeier continues to see a similar share of the backfield work this week he’s got high-end RB2 upside.
RB Brian Robinson Jr., WAS (Wk. 8: @Ind.): Robinson’s role remained largely the same with Taylor Heinicke under center in week 7. He handled more than 50% of the team's rushing attempts for the third straight game and saw his first two targets of the season. Antonio Gibson had a nice bounce-back game last weekend as well, but his playing time came at the expense of JD McKissic, not B-Rob. The Colts are favored by 2.5 points in this game, but with their QB switch to Sam Ehlinger, I wouldn’t count on them to live up to that Vegas line. Game script could end up working in Robinson’s favor. The Colts have allowed the 9th-most RB rushing yards per game and have given up 10+ points (half-PPR) to 8 running backs in their past 6 games. There’s room for both Robinson and Gibson to have a nice game again. Robinson is a floor play RB2/3 this week. You can count on reasonable rushing volume and hope for a TD.
WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 8: @Phi.): In case you haven’t been paying attention in recent weeks, the George Pickens breakout is happening in Pittsburgh. The rookie has at least 6 catches and 60+ yards in 3 of his last 4 games and has outproduced Diontae Johnson in every one of those 3 games. Kenny Pickett seems to favor Pickens and tight end Pat Freiermuth as his top options in the passing game. The matchup this weekend won’t be easy as Pickens will get to tangle with veteran corners James Bradberry and Darius Slay on the outside, but while the Eagles have shut down QBs, they haven’t been quite as dominant against wide receivers. Philly has allowed the 11th-fewest WR points per game and has allowed 6 different receivers to score in double figures this season (half-PPR). Pittsburgh should be playing from behind and be forced to throw a lot. I think Pickens sees 7+ targets in this one, and that makes him a solid WR3 option even in a tough matchup.
WR Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG (Wk. 8: @Sea.): Robinson has been active for just 3 games this season, and he’s already emerging as the team’s clear lead wide receiver. The rookie is quickly proving to be a PPR maven. He was targeted on 36% of his routes in limited playing time in his return from IR in week 6 and followed that up by leading the team with 8 targets in a more full-time role in week 7. The Seahawks have allowed the 12th-most PPR points per game to wide receivers lined up in the slot this season per Sports Info Solutions, so Robinson should be in line for another reasonable PPR game. Brian Daboll has run a really creative offense so far through 7 games, so hopefully, we’ll see Wan’Dale do more than just catch short throws as the season goes on. The team traded away Kadarius Toney to Kansas City on Thursday, removing one of the few WRs on the Giants who actually has the talent to threaten Wan’Dale’s new role.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (Wk. 8: @Phi.): There has been plenty of passing volume for Pickett in his starts – he’s averaged 48 pass attempts per game in his two full contests – but that volume hasn’t added up to big fantasy performances and he gets a brutal matchup this week. The Steelers are 11-point underdogs, so Pickett should be throwing a bunch again, but Philly has allowed just 1 QB all year to throw for more than 225 yards against them, and they’ve allowed the 2nd-fewest QB points per game. I wouldn’t view Pickett as anything more than a low-end QB2 this week, and I’d avoid him in Superflex leagues that penalize harshly for turnovers. Pickett has a 2-to-7 TD-to-INT ratio on the year, and the Eagles’ defense has 9 interceptions through 6 games.
RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (Wk. 8: vs. Ten.): I know most of you will disagree with this one, but I don’t feel good about Pierce this week. I know he’s been great over the last month, putting up over 100 scrimmage yards in each of his last 4 games and finding the end zone in 3 of them, but the Titans are a tough matchup for him. The Titans rank 3rd in run defense DVOA, and they’ve allowed just 3 running backs to score in double-digits against them this year – Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, and Jonathan Taylor. All 3 of them caught at least 5 passes in those games, a mark that Pierce has only hit once this season. Dameon still isn’t getting on the field in obvious passing situations. Since ascending to the lead back role in week 2, Pierce has yet to face a defense that ranks higher than 15th in run defense DVOA. The rookie gets enough usage that he could make me look stupid this week, but I’d be fading him in DFS lineups, and I think you should temper expectations in season-long leagues and take a hard look at some of your bench options. Guys you normally wouldn’t play ahead of Pierce like Tony Pollard, Raheem Mostert, and Michael Carter are all players I like more than Pierce this week.
RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 8: vs. Bal.): White is playing just enough over the last month to give you hope that he’s going to develop some standalone value, but not quite enough that you’d feel comfortable starting him in any lineups. The rookie has played 38% or more of the offensive snaps in 3 of the last 4 games and had at least 8 opportunities (carries + targets) in all 4, but he’s averaged just 8.3 PPR points per game in that span. The Ravens have been just a middling RB defense, allowing the 16th-most RB points per game and ranking 23rd in run defense DVOA, but I’m not willing to count on a breakout game from White in this matchup. I think the Bucs would be better served by leaning on their proven stars – Fournette, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin – to try and right the ship for this struggling offense.
RB Keaontay Ingram, ARI (Wk. 8: @Min.): Ingram is only worth any consideration if James Conner remains sidelined this week. Conner is practicing in a limited capacity this week but is still listed as questionable. Ingram found the end zone last week (and had a second TD overturned on replay review) and finished the week as the RB25, but he was on the field for less than 30% of the offensive snaps and was very inefficient as a runner. Ingram totaled just 14 rushing yards on 9 carries and gets a similar matchup this week (New Orleans ranks 19th in run defense DVOA, and Minnesota ranks 21st). If you start Ingram, you’re mostly just hoping he gets in the end zone again. Eno Benjamin is the Cardinals' back to start if Conner is out another week.
WR Romeo Doubs, GB (Wk. 8: @Buf.): Doubs continued to play a full-time role in week 7, but he was targeted just 4 times and didn’t catch any of them in a game where he and Aaron Rodgers just weren’t connecting, and some comments by Rodgers on Pat McAfee’s show on Tuesday seemed to put most of the blame on the rookie. Rodgers didn’t call out Doubs by name, but he said, “Guys who are making too many mistakes, shouldn’t be playing. Gotta start cutting some reps. Maybe guys who aren’t playing, maybe give them a chance.” Doubs was credited with two drops in the game and had another target fall incomplete when he and his QB were clearly not on the same page about where he should be. The Packers will probably have no choice but to throw a bunch this week as double-digit underdogs in Buffalo, and the team’s WR1 Allen Lazard may miss this game, but that may not be enough to protect Doubs against losing reps. Christian Watson appears to be on track to return this week, and his skill set makes him a natural replacement for Lazard. Don’t be surprised if Doubs starts losing reps this week to Amari Rodgers and/or Samori Toure. I’d be very hesitant to trust Doubs this week.
WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 8: vs. Car.): The Falcons’ die-hard commitment to running the ball that is so positive for Tyler Allgeier in week 8 is also killing the value of their number 1 receiver. The Falcons have thrown the ball more than 20 times just once in the last 5 weeks. London has a 27.5% target share in that span, but it’s amounted to just 2.6 receptions and 31 yards per game. The Panthers have allowed the 9th-most WR points per game, but if you start London against them, you do so at your own risk. He should be viewed as a WR4 bye week fill-in player for now.
WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 8: vs. Was.): Pierce’s playing time continued to climb in week 7, as he reached a season-high 96% route participation rate against the Titans, but the targets haven’t increased along with it. Instead, Parris Campbell has seen a jump in targets, with at least 11 passes coming his way in each of the last two weeks. Pierce’s targets have consistently been deeper downfield (12.0 aDOT for the season compared to 5.1 for Campbell), so he can do damage on fewer targets, but the Colts’ changing of the guard at QB could derail Pierce’s season. Matt Ryan was averaging 42 pass attempts per game for the year. With the switch to Sam Ehlinger, I’d expect that team number to be closer to 25-30 attempts per game going forward. That lower volume should be a downgrade for all the Colts’ pass-catchers. Pierce is too risky to start in Ehlinger’s first game under center, even in a good matchup against the Commanders (29th in pass defense DVOA).
WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 8: @Ind.): Dotson is only borderline if he’s actually able to play this week, but I’d lean against playing him if that happens. He seems to be on the wrong side of questionable right now, but even if he plays, I’d expect him to be eased back into action after missing the last 3 games, and the Colts have allowed the 2nd-fewest WR points per game. The switch to Taylor Heinicke at QB seemed to breathe new life into the passing game last Sunday, but Dotson likely won’t see the benefits of that this week.
TE Greg Dulcich, DEN (Wk. 8: @Jax.): The tight end position has been ugly beyond the top few guys this year (as it is every year), so Dulcich is worth at least some consideration if you’re hard up for a starter at the position this week, but I’d look at other options. The Jaguars have allowed just 2 tight ends to reach double-digit PPR points this year, and none to reach that mark in half-PPR. Only two tight ends have hauled in more than 3 receptions in a game against Jacksonville this season. If you get 8-10 PPR points out of Dulcich in this one you should take that with a smile on your face.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
QB Bailey Zappe, NE (Wk. 8: @NYJ): It appeared for a brief moment that Mac Jones may have been Wally Pipp-ed on Monday night. Mac Jones was pulled from the game after struggling to move the ball and throwing a costly interception early on against the Bears, and Bailey Zappe calmly entered and led the Pats on back-to-back TD drives to give them the lead. If he kept up that strong play, he’d likely be getting the nod again this week. Instead, the rookie turned the ball over 3 times and didn’t lead the team to another point after those first two drives as the Bears throttled New England. The Pats announced on Wednesday that Mac Jones will start this weekend against the Jets. There’s always the possibility that Zappe gets inserted mid-game again if Jones struggles, but you can’t put him in a lineup in hopes that happens.
RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 8: @Phi.): Warren still has just one game of more than 5 touches behind Najee Harris. That shouldn’t change this week in a tough matchup with the Eagles. He remains just an upside handcuff.
RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 8: vs. GB): Cook has totaled fewer than 3 touches and 10 scrimmage yards in half of Buffalo’s games this season and has yet to reach 10 PPR points in a game. He’s gotten some extra rushing opportunities late in blowout wins against the Titans and Steelers this year, and the Bills are 10.5-point favorites, but I think Green Bay will keep this game closer than Vegas predicts. I don’t expect more than a few touches for Cook.
RB Kyren Williams, LAR (Wk. 8: vs. SF): Kyren will be ready to return from IR soon, possibly even this week, but I’d take a wait-and-see approach with the rookie until we get a sense of what his role behind Darrell Henderson will look like. Malcolm Brown will likely serve as the RB2 this week even if Kyren is active, and the 49ers allow the 2nd-fewest RB points per game.
RB Snoop Conner, JAX (Wk. 8: vs. Den.): Conner takes a step up the depth chart with James Robinson traded to the Jets, but that just means he’ll be active on Sundays instead of a healthy scratch. Travis Etienne remains the clear #1 back with JaMycal Hasty likely serving as the primary backup. Conner’s playing time is worth monitoring this week to see if he can leapfrog Hasty into the RB2 role. More than 70% of Hasty’s snaps this season have been on special teams, so it’s possible that’s the reason he’s been active ahead of Conner. Neither backup has standalone value right now, but it’s good to know who holds that role going forward.
WR Khalil Shakir, BUF (Wk. 8: vs. GB): With Isaiah McKenzie back in week 6, Shakir’s route participation rate dropped from 70% (week 5) down to 20% and he was targeted just twice in the team’s win over Kansas City. His only path to a useful fantasy day this week would be a splash play or two, which the Bills are very capable of, but you can’t count on it in such limited playing time.
WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 8: vs. Cin.): Bell has seen his route participation rate reach above 60% in back-to-back games now, but he has just 3 total targets in those contests to show for it. There’s a small chance he sees an uptick in opportunities with safety valve David Njoku sidelined for a couple of weeks, but the Bengals allow the 5th-fewest WR points per game.
WR Rashid Shaheed, NO (Wk. 8: vs. LV): You probably weren’t considering Shaheed in fantasy lineups anyway, but his NFL career has gotten off to a fun start in the last couple of weeks. He’s only been active for 2 games, and he’s played just 19 snaps and handled 2 offensive touches in those games, but those touches went for a 44-yard rushing TD and a 53-yard receiving TD. You can’t count on that kind of big play in weekly lineups, but it’s reminiscent of former Atlanta Falcons’ RB Antone Smith. Smith had a 10-game stretch in 2013 and 2014 where he handled a total of 24 offensive touches, and 8 of them went for more than 35 yards (7 of those for TDs). It would be really fun if Shaheed keeps this up.
WR Velus Jones Jr., CHI (Wk. 8: @Dal.): Jones has yet to play 20% of the offensive snaps in a game for Chicago, so his only hope for fantasy relevance would be to score a TD or break off a long play. The Cowboys have allowed just 6 plays of 25+ yards in their first 7 games.
TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN (Wk. 8: @Hou.): Okonkwo played a season-high 46% of the Titans’ offensive snaps in week 7, but he was targeted just once. He’s been targeted more than once just one time in 6 games. There’s no benefit to playing Okonkwo, unless it’s as a $200 dart throw in a Showdown contest.
TE Jelani Woods, IND (Wk. 8: vs. Was.): As I said with Alec Pierce above, I expect the switch to Sam Ehlinger at QB to be a downgrade for all Indy pass-catchers, and that includes Woods. I expect the Colts to go to a run-heavy approach, and that means even less volume to split between their 3-headed TE rotation. Woods is a bad bet this week even as a TD dart throw as the Commanders have allowed just 1 tight end score and allow the 4th-fewest TE points per game.
TEs Jake Ferguson & Peyton Hendershot, DAL (Wk. 8: vs. Chi.): Hendershot got into the end zone in week 7, but he and Jake Ferguson combined for just 3 targets, 3 catches, and 12 yards, and neither rookie tight end was on the field for even 40% of the offensive snaps with Dalton Schultz back at close to full strength. Starting either of these guys is a hail mary no matter how good or bad of a tight end matchup they face.
TE Trey McBride, ARI (Wk. 8: @Min.): The Vikings allow the 6th-most TE points per game, but McBride hasn’t been targeted since week 3. That’s all you need to know here.
TE Daniel Bellinger, NYG (Wk. 8: @Sea.): Bellinger picked a bad time to suffer a major injury. The Seahawks have been giving up big points to tight ends this year, but the Bellinger suffered a fractured eye socket last Sunday that will keep him sidelined indefinitely (possibly for the rest of the season).
Rookies on byes this week: RB Isiah Pacheco, KC, RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC, WR Skyy Moore, KC
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Raheem Blackshear, CAR (Wk. 8: vs. Atl.): Chuba Hubbard is nursing a sprained ankle and isn’t practicing as of Thursday. Blackshear would likely step into a primary passing down role if Hubbard were to sit. The running backs had a 24% target share from PJ Walker last week, and the Falcons allow the 9th-most RB receptions per game. Game script should be negative this week with Atlanta favored by 6 points, so there’s some nice upside for Blackshear at a price tag of just $200 in DraftKings showdown contests.
WR Tyquan Thornton, NE (Wk. 8: @NYJ): You might not have realized it if you only looked at his 1-catch, 19-yard stat line from Monday night, but Tyquan Thornton is now a full-time player for the Patriots. The rookie played 85% of the team’s offensive snaps against the Bears despite Nelson Agholor being active, and his 5 targets were tied for 2nd on the team. The Jets' secondary has been playing at a high level in the last few weeks as Sauce Gardner has emerged as a great young corner, but they haven’t seen a player with Thornton’s 4.2-speed. I like his chances to make a splash play in this game and think his price is right for GPP contests on DraftKings at just $3,800. He’s no more than an upside dart throw in deeper season-long leagues this week, but one that I think will pay off on Sunday.
WRs Christian Watson & Samori Toure, GB (Wk. 8: @Buf.): If you saw what I wrote about Romeo Doubs above, you know I think there’s an opportunity for some other WR on the Packers to step up this week. I mention Toure here only as a deep dart throw for Showdown contests (Priced at just $600 on DraftKings). I think Toure and Amari Rodgers have a chance to take some of Doubs’ reps this week, and Toure played a few more snaps than Rodgers last Sunday. Watson is practicing early in the week and seems to be in line to return from injury this week, and he could step into a big role if Allen Lazard is sidelined (Lazard is listed as ‘doubtful’). The Bills aren’t an easy matchup, allowing the 8th-fewest WR points per game, but Green Bay will have to throw, and Watson costs close to the minimum on DraftKings this week ($3,200). He’s got a low floor, but a blowup game wouldn’t be shocking here. Since the start of last season in prime-time games, Aaron Rodgers is 6-0 with 16 TDs, 0 INTs, and 260 passing yards per game. I know the Bills are a daunting defense and the Packers are in a shambles in recent weeks, but I wouldn’t count out Rodgers and the Packers for the season just yet.
TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 8: vs. Bal.): Thursday players are usually not a great idea for fantasy lineups, but Otton has scored 10+ PPR points in both games where he’s played 80% or more of the offensive snaps, and Cam Brate will be sidelined again on Thursday night. Otton should be in line for 5-7 targets against a middling TE defense. The Ravens have allowed the 14th-most TE points per game. I wouldn’t count on much more than 10 PPR points, but he should be right around that number again.
TE Isaiah Likely, BAL (Wk. 8: @TB): Keep a close eye on the status of Mark Andrews for Thursday night if you’re considering using Likely anywhere, but Andrews didn’t practice all week with a knee injury and his status is very up in the air for this game. Both Likely and Josh Oliver would see significant boosts in playing time if Andrews sits, and Likely is the one of that pair who has drawn the targets this season despite playing fewer snaps. Likely has played 40 fewer snaps than Oliver this season, but drawn 10 more targets, so he’s the guy I’d expect to get the biggest boost. The Bucs have allowed the 10th-most TE points per game. I wouldn’t feel great about either backup tight end in a season-long format, but in DFS I’d much prefer to roll out Likely at $1,600 in a Showdown contest than his Bucs counterpart Cade Otton at $5,000. Otton is the better play in season-long leagues though.
UPDATE: Mark Andrews is ACTIVE for Thursday Night Football
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you pick up another big win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
