Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve arrived at the fantasy semifinals for most leagues, and it’s going to be a challenging week to set lineups. Frigid weather across the US this Christmas could result in some low-scoring NFL games, and some low-scoring fantasy matchups to go with it. For the season, the average NFL game has seen an average of 44.2 combined points scored, but this week 10 of the 16 games have Vegas over/under totals below 42 points. We could see limited passing game production in those games affected by the temperature, especially the games where the wind will be a problem like in Chicago and Cleveland. Keep that in mind this week as you set your lineups and pay attention to up-to-date weather reports on game day.
Week 15 was a disappointing one for the rookies in general. The standouts came from unexpected places. The highest scoring rookie QB was Brock Purdy. At running back, the top two were Tyler Allgeier and Jaylen Warren. Jahan Dotson and Rashid Shaheed paced the rookie receivers, and the top rookie tight ends were Peyton Hendershot and Teagan Quitoriano. Raise your hand if you had any of those guys other than Purdy in your lineups. Can you go back to the rookies who had been more reliable prior to last week with your season on the line – Kenneth Walker III, Garrett Wilson, Isiah Pacheco, Christian Watson, Bam Knight, Greg Dulcich, etc.? That’s what I’m here to talk about this week.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.
Let’s jump into week 16…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 16: @KC): Walker returned from injury last week and just barely cracked the top-24 PPR backs for the week, but that was an encouraging result given the matchup he was facing. His 79 scrimmage yards were the 2nd-highest total the 49ers have allowed to any running back this year, and Kansas City is a much more favorable matchup this week. The Chiefs have allowed the 13th-most RB points per game this year, and Walker has been a top-24 finisher in each of the last 8 games that he’s been healthy.
WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 16: vs. Jax.): Wilson has 75+ yards in 6 of the last 7 games, and this week faces a Jacksonville defense that ranks dead last in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA. The floor is definitely lower for Wilson with Zach Wilson at QB, but Zach started 4 of those last 7 games. The ceiling here is too high to sit Garrett if you have him just because Zach Wilson is at QB. The bigger concern in this game is the weather. It’s going to be cold, rainy, and windy on Thursday night in New Jersey, but again the ceiling is still here. You’d better have a stud ahead of him if you sit Garrett in this one. The matchup is very good, and Wilson has been producing in spite of Zach in most of their recent games together.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
QB Brock Purdy, SF (Wk. 16: vs. Was.): Purdy has continued to impress since taking over for an injured Jimmy Garoppolo. He’s accounted for 7 TDs in nearly 3 full games under center and he finished as the QB8 and QB14 in the last two weeks. There have been some concerning underlying numbers – Purdy’s on-target % according to Pro-Football Reference would rank behind 26 of 33 qualified QBs despite an average target depth of just 6 yards, and Purdy was bailed out last week by a dropped interception – but the 49ers play-calling and surrounding talent continue to put Purdy in positions to succeed, and he’s doing enough to take advantage. The Commanders’ pass defense has been solid lately, allowing 200 or fewer passing yards in their last 5 games, and allowing no more than 1 TD in each of the last 4, but I expect the game plan here to continue to give Purdy easy opportunities. He doesn’t have enough ceiling to be a QB1, but he should be a solid QB2 option again this week, even in a tougher matchup.
RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 16: vs. Sea.): Pacheco didn’t have the blow-up game I was hoping for last week against the Texans thanks to a fumble lost and zero TDs, but he topped 80 scrimmage yards for the 6th-straight game and gets another silver-platter matchup this week against the Seahawks. Seattle allows the 2nd-most RB points per game and has coughed up over 120 rushing yards per week to opposing backs. Pacheco should be a solid RB2 this week in a game where the Chiefs may opt to run more than usual in frigid temperatures. Kansas City has the highest implied point total of the week at 29 points.
RB Zonovan Knight, NYJ (Wk. 16: vs. Jax.): Bam had a disappointing game last week against a resurgent Detroit run defense, totaling just 23 yards on 13 carries. The sledding gets a little easier this week against a Jacksonville defense that ranks 14th in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 10th-most points per game to the position. The weather on Thursday night will be wet and windy, so both teams will likely look to run the ball more than usual. Knight has handled at least 59% of the team’s rushing attempts in each of the last 3 games and should continue to operate as the lead rusher in this one. He’s battled an ankle injury in practice this week, but he practiced in full on Wednesday and should be good to go. I like him as a back-end RB2 this week in what should be a more run-heavy game plan than we typically see from the Jets.
RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 16: @Ari.): White was a big letdown last week. He handled a reasonable 12 touches, but only one of those was a reception and he totaled just 43 scrimmage yards. It appears that Fournette is back in the 1A position in this backfield, but his advantage over White isn’t a substantial one. Both backs remain very involved. The Bucs are a touchdown favorite this week against a sputtering Cardinals team that will be starting its 3rd-string QB. Arizona is in the bottom 10 in the NFL at limiting RB receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TDs, and allows the 8th-most running back points per game. Rachaad could see extended opportunities in the 2nd half if the Bucs are playing with the lead, and I expect him to get back into the RB2 range this week in a plus matchup.
WR Christian Watson, GB (Wk. 16: @Mia.): This game looks to have the most shootout potential on the slate this week thanks to injuries and weather affecting other matchups. Green Bay will need to throw against a Miami defense that is much softer against the pass than against the run - they rank 26th in pass defense DVOA and 11th in run defense DVOA. Miami’s aggressive defense probably is more favorable for Romeo Doubs than Watson, as he’ll get some of the shorter throws to beat a blitzing defense, but Rodgers has made a point of getting Watson involved in the red zone. Prior to last Monday’s game, Watson had scored 8 TDs in the previous 4 contests, and on Monday Rodgers threw the ball Watson’s way 3 times in the red zone, and twice from the 5-yard line or closer. Watson’s TD upside gives him too much ceiling to leave benched unless you have great players ahead of him.
WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 16: @Bal.): London has posted back-to-back impressive performances, tallying 6-95 on 12 targets and 7-70 on 11 targets over his last two games despite having a different QB for each. They are the only games where he’s topped 50 yards since week 3. It’s a promising development for the rookie for the stretch run. He topped a 40% target share and 40% air yardage share in each game and figures to continue being the focal point of the passing game moving forward. The Ravens have allowed the 9th-most WR points per game, but London will likely see a lot of Marlon Humphrey in coverage – Humphrey ranks 17th out of 122 cornerbacks in coverage grade on Pro Football Focus. We know Atlanta wants to run the ball a lot, and the matchup could be tough, but London should be a good bet for at least 7-8 targets. I wouldn’t expect a week-winning performance, but London should be a solid WR3 option this week.
TE Greg Dulcich, DEN (Wk. 16: @LAR): Dulcich face-planted last weekend in a prime matchup with Brett Rypien under center, but I’d advocate going back to the well again this week if you don’t have a clear top-8 option at the position. Dulcich continues to post route participation rates of 80% or better, he gets Russell Wilson back this week, and he’s playing indoors instead of in the unforgiving elements that others will be dealing with. The Rams have been above average at limiting tight ends this year, allowing the 12th-fewest points per game to the position, but they’ve given up a tight end score in 5 of their last 8 games. Dulcich garnered 8 targets in each of Russ’s last 2 starts. I’d trust him as a fringe top-10 TE option this week.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 16: @Bal.): Allgeier had been quietly very effective rushing the ball for the last month and a half, and he decided to be a bit louder about it in week 15. The rookie piled up 139 yards and a TD on just 17 carries against the Saints last week. It was his best game of the season, but it was also the 5th time in his last 6 games that he’s run for 50+ yards and averaged at least 4.9 yards per carry. You know the Falcons want to run a lot, and Allgeier has been tough to slow down. With that said, I don’t love the matchup here this week. Since the Ravens traded for Roquan Smith ahead of week 9, only 1 running back has rushed for 50+ yards against them (Nick Chubb last week). Allgeier is still splitting this backfield with Cordarrelle Patterson – his 50% share of the team rushing attempts last week was the highest mark he’s hit in any game C-Patt has been active for – and the Ravens allow the 3rd-fewest RB rushing yards per game. Allgeier has just 6 receptions in the last 6 games, so he isn’t going to be a factor in the passing game. You’re going to need a touchdown to get a useful week from the rookie in this one, and Atlanta’s implied point total is just 15 points.
RB Brian Robinson Jr., WAS (Wk. 16: @SF): Robinson has rushed for 85+ yards in 4 of the last 5 games, but he’ll be hard-pressed to do it again this week against the 49ers. Positive or neutral game scripts have been a big part of Robinson’s sustained success, and the Commanders are 7.5-point underdogs this week against a 49er defense that has allowed the fewest running back points per game. Only one running back has rushed for 50+ yards against the 49ers since week 6, and none has run for 60 yards against them all year. Robinson is going to need a touchdown to return value in this game, and the Commanders have an implied Vegas point total of just 16. This is a week where a lot of teams should lean on the ground game due to bad weather. There are several better options to look to this week if you’re using a grinder RB who doesn’t catch many passes.
WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 16: @SF): Dotson has been coming on in the last couple of weeks, scoring a TD and finishing as a top-18 WR in both meetings with the Giants on either side of the team’s week 14 bye. This week he faces the 49ers, who are a dominant defense against every position except wide receiver. The 49ers have allowed the 13th-most wide receiver points per game, but the guys who have produced against them have mostly done it with volume. Only 5 receivers all year have reached even a dozen PPR points against San Francisco without seeing at least 9 targets to get there, and 4 of those 5 got in the end zone to do it. Dotson can’t be relied on for volume. He’s topped 6 targets just twice all year, so you’re going to need him to find the end zone for the 3rd straight game to get useful value here. The Commanders’ implied total of just 16 points means that Dotson isn’t a great TD bet. I’d view him as a WR4 this week.
WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 16: vs. LV): Pickens has averaged a robust 26.2 yards per catch over the last two weeks, but his volume has been too inconsistent to trust with your season on the line. The Steelers have leaned into running the football in recent weeks, and the weather for this game will likely cause them to lean even further into it, with negative wind chills and 25 mph winds in the forecast. In normal circumstances, this would be a great spot for Pickens - the Raiders rank 31st in pass defense DVOA – but it's hard to envision the rookie continuing to get by on long-distance catches in an environment where it’ll be hard to throw deep. He’s got enough ceiling that you could start him if you’re desperate, but the floor here scares me.
WR Rashid Shaheed, NO (Wk. 16: @Cle.): Shaheed was in a route on a whopping 95% of the team’s passing dropbacks last weekend, and this week both Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry have been ruled out with injury. Shaheed could serve as the team’s de-facto WR1, but I’m not sure that’s going to lead to a spike game in harsh weather conditions in Cleveland. Shaheed has made his living this season on big plays, and it’s hard to envision any big pass plays hitting in 30 mph winds and snow. Maybe Shaheed hits a big play on a designed rushing attempt or special teams return, but any pass catchers will be dicey options in what should be a strange game. I think we could see a ton of Taysom Hill in this game for the Saints. I wouldn’t want to roll with Shaheed in these conditions.
WR Jameson Williams, DET (Wk. 16: @Car.): Williams didn’t see a noticeable leap in playing time last week, running a route on just 16% of the team passing dropbacks in their win vs. the Jets. Jameson earned just one target, although that one target likely would’ve been a 45-yard touchdown if Jared Goff hadn’t underthrown it, but that’s what Williams is at this point. He’s a dart throw at a big play that’s really only an option in DFS formats and the deepest of leagues. The Panthers are a worse pass defense than the Jets, ranking 21st in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve only allowed 3 completions of 40+ yards all season.
WR Treylon Burks, TEN (Wk. 16: vs. Hou.): Burks should be back this week after missing the past two games with a concussion, but he returns to Malik Willis under center. Willis has averaged just 13 pass attempts per game in his two starts this season, so even if the Titans don’t ease Burks back in, there isn’t going to be enough passing volume to rely on him in fantasy leagues this week. I’d be surprised if he gets to 5 targets with Willis under center, and the Texans allow the 4th-fewest WR points per game.
TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN (Wk. 16: vs. Hou.): The Texans were the last opponent to hold Okonkwo under 30 receiving yards back in week 8, and while Chig’s role is not the same today as it was then, Malik Willis returning to the starting lineup makes it likely the Texans hold Okonkwo under 30 again. Okonkwo had been building steam with Tannehill. He had been targeted at least 5 times in each of the last 4 games and scored 10+ PPR points in each of the last 3, but passing volume will be non-existent with Willis back under center. Malik completed a total of 11 passes in his two previous starts. Okonkwo did haul in a 48-yard catch in one of those two starts, but he has no floor if he doesn’t hit a big play. That’s too much risk for me in the league semifinals.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (Wk. 16: vs. LV): Pickett should be good-to-go this week and return to the starting lineup, but his outlook isn’t any different than what I described last week. He’s still got no more than 1 total TD in any of his last 8 full games played, has hit 15+ fantasy points just once all year, and has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in 4 of his last 5 full games. The Raiders look like a tasty matchup on paper, allowing the 7th-most QB points per game, but the 4 highest point totals they allowed to the position all happened before their week 6 bye. No QB in their last 9 games has accounted for more than 2 touchdowns, and only one QB in the last 5 weeks has accounted for more than 1 score. Pickett has a little more yardage upside than we’ve seen in recent weeks (the Raiders have only held one QB all year below 200 passing yards – Mac Jones last week), but his lack of ceiling makes him a fringe QB2 again.
QB Desmond Ridder, ATL (Wk. 16: @Bal.): Ridder’s first start looked pretty similar to what we’ve seen from Marcus Mariota this season – Mariota averaged 23 pass attempts and 34 rushing yards per game in his starts this year, and Ridder was at 26 attempts and 38 rushing yards in his debut – but Ridder wasn’t nearly as efficient throwing the football as Mariota has been. Ridder completed just 50% of his passes (lower than all but one single-game mark for Mariota), and he threw for just 97 yards. This week he faces a Baltimore defense that ranks 9th in pass defense DVOA and hasn’t allowed an opposing QB to rush for 30+ yards since week 4. The rushing potential of Ridder means that you could throw him into a lineup as your QB2 if you’re desperate, but the floor here is low in Ridder’s 2nd career start. I’d rather start the Ravens’ defense this week than Ridder as a QB2.
QB Malik Willis, TEN (Wk. 16: vs. Hou.): Ryan Tannehill suffered an ankle injury and will spend the rest of the season on IR, so it should be Willis under center the rest of the way. Willis made two starts earlier in the season, including one against the Texans, and they totaled just 9.6 fantasy points in those two games. He completed just 11 total passes while Derrick Henry piled up 49 carries. Willis could go out and run for 80 yards and still not post a useful fantasy day with the kind of passing volume I’d expect here. Willis has arguably the highest ceiling of any of the 3 QBs listed in this section, but easily the lowest floor.
RB Jordan Mason, SF (Wk. 16: vs. Was.): Mason almost made good on my prediction last week that he would get into the end zone, but the Seahawks managed to run him out of bounds at the 2-yard line at the end of a 55-yard run. That breakaway run helped Mason end up with his best rushing total of the season, but his overall usage is troubling for his outlook moving forward. I expected Mason could see a spike in usage with Deebo Samuel not stealing rushing touches, but instead the 49ers leaned more into Christian McCaffrey handling a workhorse role. Mason played just 7 snaps, with most of them coming in the 4th quarter with the game decided. The 49ers face off this week with a Washington defense that ranks 4th in run defense DVOA and allows the 7th-fewest RB points per game. Mason has set a new career-high in rushing yards in each of the last 5 weeks, but I don’t see a path to him making it 6 straight.
RBs Kevin Harris & Pierre Strong Jr., NE (Wk. 16: vs. Cin.): There was excitement for both rookie backs last week with Damien Harris ruled out and Rhamondre Stevenson very questionable ahead of the game, but Stevenson dashed those hopes when he ended up active. The Patriots eased Rhamondre in early, but he dominated touches in the second half and overtime and finished with 168 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. The two rookies still totaled 12 combined touches, but Strong is the one who stood out for fantasy purposes with 3 targets and receptions. Both are bad options this week even if Damien Harris is out again, as they’ll get limited touches against a Cincy defense that allows the 13th-fewest RB points per game. Damien Harris is a free agent at season’s end, so Strong could be worth a speculative add in dynasty leagues where he’s still available. He could be the RB2 behind Rhamondre next season.
RB Kyren Williams, LAR (Wk. 16: vs. Den.): Williams has just 8 carries and 3 targets over the last 3 games. Cam Akers has been re-established as the Rams’ RB1, and there isn’t enough playing time for Williams to be considered for lineups.
RB Keaontay Ingram, ARI (Wk. 16: vs. TB): Despite being the Cardinals’ RB2, Ingram has just 11 carries for 32 yards in total over the past 6 weeks. This is a one-man backfield.
WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 16: vs. LAC): Pierce’s production has been inconsistent from week to week this year, even since he’s stepped into more of a full-time role with Jeff Saturday in charge, and he’ll be working with a new QB this week in Nick Foles. Pierce has averaged 4.3 targets per game over the last 6 games, but he’s topped 30 yards just once in that span and the Chargers allow the 9th-fewest WR points per game. Even if Foles provides a boost to the passing game, Pierce isn’t a good bet to make for lineups this week.
WR Tyquan Thornton, NE (Wk. 16: vs. Cin.): Thornton has now run a route on more than 90% of the Patriots' passing dropbacks in each of the past two games, and he has 5 catches for 49 yards on 9 targets to show for it. Mac Jones has regressed as a passer this year with Matt Patricia calling the plays, and the Bengals rank 11th in pass defense DVOA. On top of that, Thornton was added to the injury report on Wednesday. A mid-week addition to the injury report is never a good sign. I wouldn’t expect a full-time role for the rookie this week, and we’ve already seen him not produce with a full-time workload.
WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 16: vs. NO): Bell was inactive last weekend with a toe injury, and I’d expect his usage to be limited this week even if he plays. This game currently has the lowest Vegas over/under in 14 years at just 31.5. This is not a game where you should be thinking about using ancillary parts like Bell in any format.
WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 16: vs. Sea.): Moore’s route participation rate has decreased in each of the last 3 weeks, reaching just 19% last Sunday. He’s scored just 4.1 PPR points in total over those 3 games, and while the Seahawks' defense isn’t good, they’ve allowed the 3rd-fewest WR points per game. There’s nothing here this week.
WR Velus Jones Jr., CHI (Wk. 16: vs. Buf.): Jones played a season-high 68% of the Bears’ offensive snaps last week with Chase Claypool inactive and Equanimeous St. Brown leaving early with a concussion. He turned that playing time into 2 touches for 3 yards. The weather in Chicago this weekend isn’t going to be conducive to big passing numbers, the Bears throw the ball less than any other team in the league, and the Bills rank 7th in pass defense DVOA. There isn’t a good reason to consider Jones this week even if ESB and Claypool are both out again. Even the return of N’Keal Harry (who practiced in full Tuesday) could push Velus back to the bench.
WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 16: @Cle.): In case you missed the update, Olave has been ruled out for this week’s game against the Browns, along with Jarvis Landry.
TE Trey McBride, ARI (Wk. 16: vs. TB): McBride followed up his best game of the season in week 14 with an even better game in week 15, tallying 4-55 on 5 targets against the Broncos. It’s a promising sign for the rookie, and the Bucs have allowed 3 tight end scores in their last 4 games, but Trace McSorley at QB makes McBride too risky to roll the dice on outside of DFS formats. For what it’s worth, 2 catches and 43 yards of McBride’s output last Sunday came after McSorley entered the game, so there is some appeal as a DFS dart throw.
TE Jelani Woods, IND (Wk. 16: vs. LAC): Woods’ breakout Monday Night Football performance in week 12 seems like ages ago after he played less than 25% of the offensive snaps in each of the last two games. The switch to Nick Foles at QB throws even more uncertainty into where the Colts’ passing targets will go. Anything more than 5 PPR points would be a positive result for Woods.
TE Isaiah Likely, BAL (Wk. 16: vs. Atl.): In the two games where Tyler Huntley has played more than 70% of the Ravens’ offensive snaps this year, Likely has averaged 3 catches for 24 yards on 3.5 targets. Atlanta allows the 4th-most tight end points per game this season, but that doesn’t mean you should bet on Likely substantially outperforming those averages. Mark Andrews is much more likely to be the beneficiary. I’d expect Likely to be back in that 5-6 PPR point range at best.
TEs Peyton Hendershot & Jake Ferguson, DAL (Wk. 16: vs. Phi.): Ferguson should return this week after missing last week’s game with a concussion, but he’s topped 15 yards just twice all year. Hendershot has scored a touchdown on 3 of his last 7 offensive touches, but those have come over the course of 8 games. Both players remain just TD dart throws for DFS lineups.
Rookies Who May as Well be on Byes: RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC, RB Zamir White, LV, RB Raheem Blackshear, CAR, RB Trestan Ebner, CHI, WR Jalen Tolbert, DAL, WR Khalil Shakir, BUF, TE Cole Turner, WAS, TE Teagan Quitoriano, HOU
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Bailey Zappe, NE (Wk. 16: vs. Cin.): The Patriots haven’t even hinted at Zappe possibly starting this week, but there has been plenty of noise among Pats fans that it’s time to make the switch. Mac Jones has been really struggling over the last few weeks, even without considering his missed tackle of Chandler Jones. Mac had a season-low 42% completion percentage last weekend against a mediocre Raiders pass defense. If he struggles again this week (a likely outcome against a ‘fairly tough’ Bengals’ defense), we could see Zappe starting in week 16 in a must-win game against the Dolphins. Miami has allowed the 4th-most QB points per game this season. If you’re in a superflex semifinal this week, and you’re relying on a one-game spot starter like Zach Wilson, Gardner Minshew, or Tyler Huntley, you could possibly get ahead of the curve for your week 17 QB2 by picking up Zappe now.
RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 16: @Chi.): The Bills are not likely to deploy their usual high-flying passing offense on Saturday in Chicago in frigid, windy conditions. Cook has been a bigger part of the rushing attack in recent weeks, handling 38.3% of the team’s running back rushing attempts over the last 3 weeks, and the Bears rank just 27th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 7th-most RB rushing yards per game. If the Bills lean on the run game, Cook should be in line to be a borderline RB2/RB3. He’s finished with 10+ PPR points in two of the last 3 games.
RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 16: vs. LV): The Steelers have transitioned to being a more run-heavy football team over the last 6 weeks or so, and for much of that the prime beneficiary was Najee Harris, but the Steelers made a push to get Warren more involved last week. Najee Harris did pop up on the injury report this week with a hip injury, but Warren was involved right away on the first drive last week, so this shift doesn’t seem injury related. Warren finished the game with a season-high 11 carries for 38 yards and a TD and hauled in an 11-yard reception. This week he faces a Las Vegas defense that allows the 5th-most RB points per game and ranks 22nd in run defense DVOA. If his increased usage carries over to this week, Warren has some intriguing DFS upside at just $4,600 for showdown contests on DraftKings. There’s not enough usage here for Warren to get slotted into normal lineups though.
WR Romeo Doubs, GB (Wk. 16: @Mia.): The Packers didn’t hesitate to get Doubs worked back into the offense in his first game back since week 9 on Monday night. Doubs didn’t play a full-time role, handling just 23 offensive snaps, but he was targeted on 5 of those snaps (including one on Green Bay’s third play from scrimmage) and finished with 5 catches for 55 yards. I’d expect his playing time to go up this week with the Packers fighting for a playoff spot. Miami ranks 26th in pass defense DVOA, and this is one of the few outdoor games this week where the weather shouldn’t be a problem. The Dolphins blitz at the 7th-highest rate in the league, which leads to quicker, shorter throws, and that favors Doubs (his aDOT is 3 yards lower than Allen Lazard or Christian Watson). I like Doubs’ chances at another solid game to build on what he did last week. Something like 6-70 would be a positive development.
TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 16: @Ari.): Otton’s Cam Brate streak survived another week. He still hasn’t eclipsed 7 PPR points in any game that Cam Brate has been active for (he put up 10+ in 4 of the 5 games Brate missed), but I like his chances to break that streak this week. Arizona has allowed 70 receiving yards and/or a touchdown to a tight end in 7 of their past 8 games, and Otton is the tight end on the Bucs that is likeliest to take advantage. He’s still risky for playoff lineups, but there is some upside for DFS lineups or if you’re in a real pinch in a season-long league.
TE Daniel Bellinger, NYG (Wk. 16: @Min.): Bellinger has some added upside this week as he gets the most favorable matchup he’s faced since returning from his eye injury. The rookie is playing a full-time role with a route participation rate above 80% in two of the last 3 games, and he’s earned 4 targets per game in those contests against good tight end defenses. This week he faces the Vikings, who allow the 13th-most tight end points per game and rank 27th in pass defense DVOA. Bellinger has a real chance to creep into the top-12 tight ends this week despite averaging just 16 yards per game in the last 3 weeks.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you pick up another big win this weekend and advance to your title game. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
