Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve made it to championship week, and honestly, you deserve a title if you survived last week’s slate of ice bowls. The weather wreaked havoc on lineups and fantasy performances last weekend as a number of key players posted duds with everything on the line. Justin Herbert, Derek Carr, Rhamondre Stevenson, Cordarrelle Patterson, D’Andre Swift, Josh Jacobs, Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, Adam Thielen, Mark Andrews, and DeAndre Hopkins were all among the players who could’ve sabotaged your chances of advancing. You’re in luck this week as the weather appears to be much more favorable. As of right now, not one game in week 17 is projected to have winds higher than 11 mph, and only one game is projected to have a temperature below 40 degrees (Vikings at Packers). All-in-all, weather shouldn’t be much of a consideration this week unless things change drastically between now and Sunday.
The bigger concern this week is with teams that have nothing to play for – most notably the Titans and Raiders. The Titans are sitting Derrick Henry and Malik Willis this week since the only game that matters for their playoff hopes is next week against the Jaguars, and the Raiders have benched Derek Carr, likely torpedoing the values of Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams, and Darren Waller in championship week. Make sure you know if any of your players are at risk of reduced workloads in inconsequential games and adjust accordingly.
Odds are if you’ve made it this far, you’ve had at least one rookie contribute along the way. I can’t remember another season with quite so many important fantasy rookies, and that means there are a lot of them in consideration for championship week lineups. I’m here to help you navigate what to do with them once again, and hopefully help you guide your squad to a title.y
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.
Let’s jump into week 17…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 17: vs. NYJ): Walker doesn’t always put up crooked rushing production (he’s been held below 50 rushing yards in 4 of his last 5 games), but he’s tallied at least 11.9 PPR points in each of his last 9 healthy games. I wouldn’t be excited to use him in DFS contests since the Jets rank 8th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA and allow the 9th-fewest RB points per game, but Walker has consistently finished as an RB2 this season, and his workload is safe. You can’t sit him in championship games unless you have safe studs ahead of him.
WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 17: @Sea.): Wilson gets Mike White back at QB this week, and that should mean good things for his production. The Seahawks have allowed just the 3rd-fewest WR points per game, but they also rank 21st in pass defense DVOA. Wilson has scored 12 or more PPR points in each of the last 5 games that were not started by Zach Wilson, and he’s been targeted at least 7 times in all of them. He’s got top-12 upside every time Mike White is under center, and Seattle isn’t as daunting of a matchup as their points allowed ranking would indicate.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
QB Brock Purdy, SF (Wk. 17: @LV): Purdy has finished as the QB14 or better in all 3 of his starts so far this season, and he should be a fine high-end QB2 again this week. The Raiders have limited 5 of the last 6 QBs they’ve faced to fewer than 2 total touchdowns, but only one QB all year has fallen short of 220 passing yards against them. Purdy continues to keep the 49ers’ offense on schedule and make plays in the passing game when asked to. I wouldn’t be plugging him into fantasy lineups ahead of obvious top-10 QB plays, but he’s a steady QB2 once again this week.
RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 17: vs. Ari.): Allgeier has been on a true heater over the past couple months, and he appears to have wrestled the lead back role away from Cordarrelle Patterson in this offense. He had been consistently topping 50 yards on around 10 carries per week in November, and that efficient running led to a rise in playing time in the last two games, and Allgeier has kept up his strong play. He’s tallied 253 scrimmage yards and a TD over the last two weeks on 40 touches, and this week he faces an Arizona defense that ranks 27th in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 8th-most RB points per game. The most promising development last week was that Allgeier set season-highs with 5 targets and 4 receptions in Desmond Ridder’s second start. Allgeier should be a reasonable RB2 this week on rushing upside alone, but if the passing usage continues, he could have even more untapped ceiling.
RB Brian Robinson Jr., WAS (Wk. 17: vs. Cle.): Robinson has piled up 80+ rushing yards in 4 of his past 6 games, and this week faces one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. The Browns rank 30th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 3rd-most RB points per game. Cleveland has allowed a 70-yard rusher in 6 of their last 7 games, and Antonio Gibson might be inactive this week, leaving a bigger share of the workload for the rookie. Robinson is a top-20 RB play this week.
RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 17: vs. Den.): Pacheco hasn’t consistently shown an exciting fantasy ceiling, scoring 15+ fantasy points just twice all year, but he’s been a rock-solid floor play with 7 straight games of 80+ scrimmage yards. Denver looked like they’ve given up on 2022 last week, surrendering 51 points to the Rams and allowing Cam Akers to bulldoze them for 118 yards and 3 scores. The Broncos rank just 22nd in run defense DVOA, and Pacheco put up 93 scrimmage yards against them in the first meeting back in week 14. Denver did dismiss head coach Nathaniel Hackett this week, and teams often see a bump in performance in the game after firing a coach in-season, but I don’t think that bump is enough to overcome a two-touchdown point spread this week. The Chiefs should still win easily, and Pacheco should roll up another 80 yards and a possible score. He’s a floor RB2/3 again this week.
RB Zonovan Knight, NYJ (Wk. 17: @Sea.): Knight is a risky play this week, but he’s a risky play in a good matchup. He had an abysmal performance last Thursday night against the Jaguars in the rain. He looked indecisive as a runner and finished with negative rushing yards on his 6 carries. The workload was disappointing, but Knight still handled 60% of the running back rushing attempts and should get another crack as lead back this week. The Seahawks allow the 2nd-most RB points per game, and rank 25th in run defense DVOA. Seattle has allowed 12+ PPR points to 7 different running backs in the past 5 games. If Knight functions as the RB1 again this week, he should be a fantasy RB2. The biggest concern would be that he could lose carries after his poor performance last week. Keep tabs on team reports if you’re considering Knight this week.
WR Christian Watson, GB (Wk. 17: vs. Min.): Watson is questionable for this week with a hip injury that knocked him out of the Christmas Day game with the Dolphins, but if he’s able to play he’s got a mountain of upside. Watson has emerged as Aaron Rodgers’ favorite target in this passing game. He was targeted 8 times on Rodgers’ first 16 pass attempts last weekend before exiting with injury, and that kind of workload against a bad Vikings secondary could mean top-12 upside this week. The Vikings allow the 2nd-most WR points per game. Keep an eye on the injury report to see if he’s limited at all, but if it sounds like Watson will be at full strength, he should be in your lineup.
WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 17: @Phi.): Olave has returned to practice this week after missing last Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury. The Eagles have strong perimeter cornerbacks and have allowed just the 10th-fewest WR points per game, but Olave has been matchup-proof for much of the season. Jarvis Landry has gone on IR this week, and in the games Landry’s missed this year Olave has averaged 9 targets per game. Olave hasn’t shown WR1 upside in a while, but he should be a safe WR3 if he’s active.
WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 17: vs. Cle.): The Commanders are going back to Carson Wentz at QB this week, but Dotson has shown this season that he’s capable of producing no matter who is under center. The conventional wisdom this season has been that Heinicke only had eyes for Terry McLaurin, and the switch to Wentz should be a good thing for Dotson, but Dotson has done a great job of establishing himself with Heinicke in recent weeks. Dotson had earned a 26% target share from Heinicke in the last 3 games. Jahan has shown he’s a touchdown machine when healthy. He scored 4 touchdowns in the first 4 games of the season with Wentz before going on IR, and after a few weeks of getting his playing time ramped up and getting acclimated to Heinicke after his return, Dotson has rattled off 3 straight games with a score. The Browns have allowed just the 8th-fewest WR points per game, but I’d bet on Dotson keeping his hot streak alive. The team has been more pass-heavy when Carson Wentz is under center (Wentz attempted 38+ passes in each of the first 5 games of the year, and Heinicke has thrown more than 33 attempts just once), and the biggest concern with Wentz is that he crumbles when pressured. The Browns’ defense has the 6th-lowest pressure rate in the league. Dotson is more TD-reliant than the other WRs listed in this section, but I like him as a WR3 this week.
WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 17: vs. Ari.): London appears to have finally turned the corner after showing some consistency over the past 3 weeks. He’s put up receiving lines of 6-95, 7-70, and 7-96 despite the team totaling fewer than 500 passing yards total in those 3 games. Arizona allows the 11th-fewest WR points per game, but they also allow the 8th-most passing yards per game, and London has been the bulk of the Atlanta passing attack in recent weeks. I wouldn’t bank on enough volume for London to have a true blow-up game this week, but he should keep the string of solid performances going as he continues to build a rapport with Desmond Ridder.
TE Greg Dulcich, DEN (Wk. 17: @KC): Dulcich has 8 targets in each of Russell Wilson’s last 3 starts, and the Broncos should be throwing a bunch again this week as two-TD underdogs in Kansas City. KC isn’t a great matchup for Dulcich, but the volume should have him firmly in-play as a low-end TE1. Dulcich plays from the slot as much as any tight end in the league (5th among all tight ends in slot snaps despite not playing until week 6), but 66% of his PPR fantasy points have come when aligned as an in-line tight end according to Sports Info Solutions. The Chiefs have allowed more fantasy points to tight ends lined up in the slot than any other team in the league, but they’ve allowed the fewest points in the league to in-line tight ends. Dulcich is going to have to make the most of his slot opportunities to out-perform that fringe TE1 range. He tallied 3 catches for 42 yards on 8 targets in his first meeting with the Chiefs.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 17: vs. Car.): White finished last week as the RB14 thanks to a 4th quarter TD, but he took a clear back seat to Leonard Fournette in backfield usage in that game. Lenny handled 20 carries and 10 targets against the Cardinals compared to just 7 carries and 4 targets for White. There’s no guarantee that White bounces back to a more even split this week. The Bucs need to win to take control of the division race, and they’ve typically leaned more on Fournette when they need to win. The Panthers have been a solid defense against running backs this year. They’ve allowed the 15th fewest RB points per game, but that number is skewed a bit by a 5-TD game for Joe Mixon. If we remove the Bengals game, Carolina has allowed the 8th-fewest RB points per game, and they gave up only 58 combined yards and no TDs to Fournette and White in the first meeting with Tampa. You could potentially get away with starting White again this week, but he carries a bit more risk than usual with a tough matchup and a less certain role.
RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 17: @Cin.): Cook made you look smart if you took a chance on him against the Bears at frigid Soldier Field last weekend, but I wouldn’t count on a repeat performance here. Cook has been productive when the Bills have gone run-heavy, something they did against the Browns, Patriots and Bears, but it’s not the approach I expect them to take this week. The Bengals have allowed the 8th-fewest RB points per game and the 6th-fewest RB rushing yards per game. The Bills would be wise to lean into their strengths in this one and let Josh Allen do the heavy lifting. I’d expect just a handful of carries and a few targets for Cook, which means he’ll need a TD to return value. The Bengals have coughed up just 1 running back score in their past 5 games.
WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 17: @Bal.): Pickens has been playing well in recent weeks, putting up 50+ yards in 5 of his last 6 games, including a 3-78 line on 3 targets against these Ravens in the first meeting a few weeks ago, but he hasn’t put up more than 6 targets in a game since week 5. The Ravens have allowed the 11th-most WR points per game this season, but only 3 receivers in the last 12 games have tallied a dozen fantasy points against them (half-PPR). All 3 of them either scored a TD or earned double-digit targets. Pickens isn’t getting to 10+ targets, so you need the TD, and the Ravens’ defense has allowed just 6 total touchdowns in their last 6 games. If you’re happy with 8-10 PPR points, Pickens is a fine option, but if you’re hoping for more, I’d probably look elsewhere.
WR Romeo Doubs, GB (Wk. 17: vs. Min.): This recommendation changes if Christian Watson’s hip injury keeps him from playing this week. The Vikings’ pass defense has been porous this season, and Doubs would step into a prominent role if Watson is sidelined. Doubs has been targeted 11 times in the last two games and would see an uptick there if Watson were to sit, and the Vikings allow the 7th-highest completion % and 4th-highest yards per completion in the league. Doubs has WR2 upside in this matchup if Watson is unable to play, but he’s a dicey WR4 if Watson suits up. Watson is practicing in a limited capacity as of Thursday.
WR Rashid Shaheed, NO (Wk. 17: @Phi.): Shaheed is a big play waiting to happen every week, but he’s hasn’t had more than 4 targets come his way in any game that Chris Olave has been active for, and the Eagles rank 1st in pass defense DVOA and allow the 10th-fewest WR points per game. Shaheed is now the WR2 in this offense with Jarvis Landry on IR, so you could take a swing if you’re in big need of upside, but Shaheed is a boom-or-bust WR4 option. With Andy Dalton as his QB, the ‘boom’ side of that is always a longer shot than it should be.
WR Treylon Burks, TEN (Wk. 17: vs. Dal.): Burks was targeted just twice in his first game played with Malik Willis at QB and didn’t record a single reception. He could see more usage this week with Josh Dobbs taking over and an expected negative game script, but it’s hard to count on any pass catchers in this offense without Ryan Tannehill at QB. The matchup this week is more favorable than you’d think given that the Cowboys rank 2nd in pass defense DVOA. They’ve allowed the 4th-most WR points per game and have allowed 4 different receivers to catch for 100+ yards in the last 3 weeks since CB Anthony Brown went on IR. Burks is an intriguing play in DFS tournaments this week, but he shouldn’t be anywhere near your championship lineups unless you’re desperate.
WR Jameson Williams, DET (Wk. 17: vs. Chi.): Williams has big-play upside, but the Lions have been unwilling to unleash him for more than a handful of plays each week, and comments Dan Campbell made this week make me believe any changes there will be incremental. When asked about ramping up Jameson’s usage, Campbell said: “We’ll get him a couple more plays this week. He’s coming. It takes work. We just can’t throw him out there and say, ‘You’re taking 65 plays.’ There’s a trust that has to be built. But he’s working through that, and it’s good.” I touted Jameson as a potential league-winner down the stretch, but it sounds like he’s going to remain a part-time player through the remainder of the regular season. He could have some success on limited snaps against the Bears’ barely there defense (29th in pass defense DVOA), but you can’t count on that in championship week lineups.
TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 17: vs. Car.): I made the mistake last week of betting against the Cam Brate corollary with Otton. The rule is that if Brate is active, you should sit Otton, and if Brate sits, you should fire him up. Otton has now failed to reach 10 PPR points in all 9 games that Brate has been active for. He’s 4-for-5 at hitting that mark when Brate sits. For what it’s worth, Otton did play a full-time role last week. He was in a route on 84% of Tom Brady’s dropbacks and was targeted 7 times, but he turned that into just 2 catches for 12 yards. He’s got low-end TE1 upside if he sees that kind of usage again this week, but there are less risky streaming options out there. The Panthers allow the 11th-fewest TE points per game.
TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN (Wk. 17: vs. Dal.): Okonkwo has earned just 7 targets in the 3 games Ryan Tannehill didn’t play, and Dallas allows the 3rd-fewest TE points per game. The rookie still has big-play upside, but if he gets more than just a couple catches it would be a surprise. The team announced Thursday that Josh Dobbs is going to get the start at QB, but Dobbs has just 45 career passing yards to his name. You’d be taking a huge leap of faith if you start Okonkwo in a championship game with Dobbs at QB.
TE Daniel Bellinger, NYG (Wk. 17: vs. Ind.): Bellinger has been on the field for 97% or more of the Giants’ offensive snaps in 3 of the past 4 games, but he isn’t getting the ball enough to be useful in championship week. Any tight end that plays a full-time role is capable of putting up a fringe TE1 performance, but Bellinger hasn’t tallied more than 40 yards in any game this season, and the Colts have allowed just 1 tight end score in the last 11 games.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (Wk. 17: @Bal.): Pickett still hasn’t posted two total touchdowns in any game he’s started this season, and the Ravens have only allowed two QBs to score 14+ fantasy points in their last 10 games (Tom Brady and Trevor Lawrence). There isn’t a good reason to expect more from Pickett this week than what we’ve seen over the past 3 months. He remains an uninspiring QB2 option.
QB Skylar Thompson, MIA (Wk. 17: @NE): I’d be very surprised if Tua Tagovailoa ends up playing this week after going into the concussion protocol for the third time this season, so that means either Skylar Thompson or Teddy Bridgewater would get the starting nod in his place. If Thompson gets the nod, there is some upside with the weapons he’ll have at his disposal, but the Patriots are always a tough matchup against inexperienced QBs, especially in Foxboro. New England has held 3 of the 7 QBs they’ve faced at home this season below 8 fantasy points, including Zach Wilson and Sam Ehlinger. Thompson is nothing more than a prayer QB2 this week, even if he does get the start.
Update: Teddy Bridgewater is expected to get the start in Tua’s place
QB Malik Willis, TEN (Wk. 17: vs. Dal.): If you missed the news on Thursday, Josh Dobbs is expected to get the start for the Titans, not Willis. With Derrick Henry expected to sit, the team likely feels that they need someone who could have success throwing the ball, and that isn’t Willis right now. Dobbs isn’t exactly a proven option. He’s attempted just 17 passes in his 5+ year NFL career, but he flashed this past preseason with the Browns.
RB Zamir White, LV (Wk. 17: vs. SF): The Raiders have thrown in the towel for 2022 after their loss to the Steelers last week ended their realistic playoff hopes. They’ve already announced that Derek Carr has been benched for Jarrett Stidham for the remainder of the season, and they’ll likely limit Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams a bit as well to get a look at younger players on the roster. That means Zamir White will probably set a career-high in touches this week, but I wouldn’t expect much success against a San Francisco defense that allows the fewest RB points per game. The Raiders’ offense as a whole is likely to struggle.
RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 17: @Bal.): Warren’s spike in usage in week 15 didn’t carry over to last Sunday, and he’s now handled 8+ touches in just 4 games this season. He isn’t playing enough for you to rely on him in your championship lineup, especially against a Baltimore defense that ranks 4th in run defense DVOA.
WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 17: @NYG): The Colts’ passing game is just too much of a mess to consider an inconsistent target like Pierce. Nick Foles threw for fewer than 150 yards in his first start, and Pierce has 30+ receiving yards just once in 6 games since Jeff Saturday took over as head coach, and he’s put up a goose egg in 3 of them. The floor here is zero.
TE Trey McBride, ARI (Wk. 17: @Atl.): McBride has played at least 70% of the offensive snaps in each of Arizona’s past 6 games, and he has just one game of 6+ PPR points to show for it. He’s a low-end TE2 whether it’s Colt McCoy or Trace McSorley under center.
Rookies who may as well be on byes: RB Raheem Blackshear, CAR, RBs Pierre Strong Jr. and Kevin Harris, NE, RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC, RB Kyren Williams, LAR, RB Keaontay Ingram, ARI, Trestan Ebner, CHI, WR Skyy Moore, KC, WR David Bell, CLE, WR Khalil Shakir, BUF, WR Tyquan Thornton, NE, TE Isaiah Likely, BAL, TEs Peyton Hendershot & Jake Ferguson, DAL, TE James Mitchell, DET
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Desmond Ridder, ATL (Wk. 17: vs. Ari.): Ridder showed progress throwing the ball last week, completing two-thirds of his attempts and accounting for more than 200 passing yards, something Marcus Mariota did just once in his final 10 starts. Atlanta is out of the playoff picture, but don’t look for them to hold anything back this week. The Cardinals allow the 9th-most QB points per game and have allowed more than 195 passing yards to every QB they’ve faced this year, including some pretty mediocre opponents – Brett Rypien, John Wolford, and Carolina Baker Mayfield. Ridder has some extra upside this week as another 200-yard passing performance feels likely. You could do worse than Ridder if you’re desperate for a QB2 this week.
RBs Tyrion Davis-Price & Jordan Mason, SF (Wk. 17: @LV): The 49ers have rattled off 8 straight wins, and everything points to them likely making it 9 straight in relatively easy fashion this week against the Raiders. Las Vegas has benched Derek Carr and will probably scale back playing time for other stars as well, which should lead to a ho-hum 49ers victory. The Niners are already a run-heavy offense, and positive game script should push them even further in that direction in this one. Christian McCaffrey has only about 63% of the team’s running back rushing yards over the past 4 games, so that leaves plenty of room for one of the back-ups to step up and be a valuable DFS play, especially if there is garbage time like I expect. Davis-Price surprisingly carried the ball 9 times last week, but Mason was dealing with a hamstring injury that limited him to just special teams work. He’s reportedly doing better this week. Pay attention to the injury updates on Mason – I’d prioritize him over TDP this week unless you hear that he’ll be limited again. The Raiders rank just 20th in run defense DVOA, and Mason has averaged 5 yards per carry or more in each of his last 4 games where he recorded a touch. Mason costs just $2,000 on DraftKings for showdown contests.
RBs Hassan Haskins & Julius Chestnut, TEN (Wk. 17: vs. Dal.): Derrick Henry is listed as doubtful for this week, and Dontrell Hilliard is on IR. That leaves Haskins and Chestnut as the top two backs for this week’s game. Neither player has the kind of outlook that you should be excited to get into a championship week lineup, but both have some upside as cheap DFS plays. Haskins costs just $3,000 and Chestnut just $1,800 for showdown contests on DraftKings. Dallas has allowed the 3rd-fewest RB points per game and ranks 5th in run defense DVOA, but the Titans will continue to pound the ball with Josh Dobbs at QB. Haskins should be the primary ballcarrier on early downs, and Chestnut should handle passing-down work, but both should be involved quite a bit. The Titans are double-digit underdogs, so negative game script could mean Chestnut is the guy who plays more. At least with Dobbs there is a better chance of Chestnut catching a handful of dump-off passes than he’d have with Willis.
WR Velus Jones Jr., CHI (Wk. 17: @Det.): Last Sunday was the first time all year that Jones recorded 2 receptions in a game, so the floor here is very low, but don’t be surprised if Jones cashes in a splash play or two. Jones has served as the team’s WR3 behind Byron Pringle and Dante Pettis the last two weeks with Chase Claypool and Equanimeous St. Brown sidelined with injury. Both injured receivers got their first limited practice of the week on Thursday and are listed as questionable again. Jones showed off his deep-ball skills last week with a 44-yard catch, and this week’s opponent is especially vulnerable to deep passes. The Lions rank 28th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed 10 completions of 30+ yards in their last 3 games. If ESB and Claypool are out again, Jones will get a couple opportunities to hit a big play or two, and he costs just $800 on DraftKings for showdown contests.
TE Jelani Woods, IND (Wk. 17: @NYG): Kylen Granson has missed two games this season, and those have been Woods’ two best games of the year. Woods posted 8-98 on 9 targets back in week 12 against the Steelers, and then 3-43 on 5 targets last week against the Chargers in Nick Foles’ first start. Granson isn’t practicing as of Thursday, so Jelani could have strong upside against the Giants, who allow the 6th-most TE points per game. The Colts’ overall passing game is a mess, but it can’t get much worse than what we saw from Foles last week, and it doesn’t take much from a tight end for him to have top-12 upside. Woods could be a nice streaming option if you’re desperate at tight end this week, and he costs just $2,800 on DraftKings.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you bring home a fantasy championship. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
