Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week one was one of those NFL weeks that reminds us just how little we actually know about this game. Raise your hand if you expected Desmond Ridder and CJ Stroud to have more receptions last weekend than Tee Higgins and Drake London (Put your hands down, no you didn’t). Some things did go as planned, like the Vikings throwing 40+ times and Jordan Addison benefitting as a result, and Zay Flowers being a top target in the Ravens’ passing game, but many of the other top rookies saw smaller week 1 roles than we were hoping for.
Top running backs Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs both looked excellent in their debuts, but both saw lower usage than we’d like. Bijan finished the week as an RB1, but he ceded 15 carries and 2 goal-line TDs to Tyler Allgeier. Gibbs would’ve finished as a fringe RB1 as well if he hadn’t tripped over his own feet on a red zone carry that should’ve gone for a score, but he was on the field for just 19 offensive snaps while David Montgomery played 55.
Other rookie top performers of the week included Puka Nacua and Anthony Richardson. Nacua had a massive debut with 10 catches for 119 yards on 15 targets as the Rams played without Cooper Kupp. The Rams’ strong overall performance was one of the more surprising storylines of the opening weekend. Fantasy players who took the plunge on Anthony Richardson as a QB1 look like they’re going to be handsomely rewarded this season. The Colts let Richardson throw the ball 37 times in week 1 while he also rushed for 40 yards and a TD. It’s hard to lean on the running game when your top back finishes with 14 yards on 13 carries. Richardson is going to be asked to do it all while JT sits out, and in week one that meant high-end QB1 production.
Rookie tight ends Luke Musgrave and Sam LaPorta played well in their openers, but neither cracked double-digit fantasy points. LaPorta was still able to finish as a TE1 for the week as tight end scoring was abysmal league wide.
My biggest tip after week 1 is this – Don’t let a 1-week sample cause you to completely abandon your priors. You should use the info from week 1 to make decisions going forward, but don’t overreact to it. Don’t drop players like Tee Higgins or Drake London after one bad game. There are ebbs and flows in fantasy. There will be better weeks for those guys. This is especially true for the rookies that were quiet in week 1. Rarely do we see rookies dominate right out of the gate, but they’ll often help you a ton in the back half of the season.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Let’s get into week 2…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
QB Anthony Richardson, IND (Wk. 2: @Hou.): Richardson finished his first NFL week as the fantasy QB4, and there were a lot of numbers beyond that to like as well. Richardson is inexperienced as a passer with fewer than 400 career pass attempts in college, so it’s a great sign that Shane Steichen trusted him to drop back to pass 45 times in week one (including 4 sacks and 4 scrambles). The Colts are going to struggle to run the football without Jonathan Taylor, so passing volume is going to be much higher for this offense than any of us expected coming in. That passing volume paired with huge rushing upside (he handled 27% of the Colts’ designed rushes in week 1) means Richardson could be a top-5 QB all year. He’s an every-week fantasy starter until further notice.
RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (Wk. 2: vs. GB): Bijan didn’t play the dominant workhorse role we were hoping for in week 1. He was on the field for 65% of the offensive snaps but handled just 38% of the rushing attempts as Tyler Allgeier had the bigger rushing workload and scored a pair of short TDs. Luckily for Bijan and for us, he was a focal point in the passing game, earning a 35% target share and scoring a receiving TD en route to a PPR RB7 finish for the week. The TD reception was especially impressive, showing off Bijan’s elusiveness after the catch. This offense is going to be run-heavy enough to make both Robinson and Allgeier viable fantasy starters every week, even if it’s not quite the usage we envisioned for Robinson. In week 2 this backfield takes on a Green Bay defense that allowed the 9th-most RB points per game in 2022 and allowed the 5th-most points to the position in week 1. The Bears’ backfield racked up 143 scrimmage yards, 11 receptions, and a TD against the Packers last Sunday. Bijan should be locked into starting lineups again in week 2.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (Wk. 2: vs. Sea.): Gibbs usage in week 1 was far from what we were hoping for. He played just 19 snaps compared to 55 for David Montgomery, but he was explosive with his opportunities and should see his role grow as the season goes on. This week’s opponent, the Seahawks, allowed the 4th-most running back points last season, and coughed up 3 TDs to Cam Akers and Kyren Williams in week 1. The Lions open the week with the 3rd-highest implied point total in the league, so this is an offense that you want to target for lineups. I’m less confident in Gibbs as an auto-start given his week 1 usage, but Dan Campbell emphatically said on Thursday that Gibbs is going to get more touches going forward, and this is a matchup where he should be able to finish as an RB2 even if that usage doesn’t improve much.
WR Zay Flowers, BAL (Wk. 2: @Cin.): Game one of the Todd Monken era in Baltimore didn’t go according to plan with just 22 passing attempts for Lamar Jackson, but that didn’t stop Flowers from piling up 9-78 on 10 targets. The 50% target share for Flowers isn’t going to continue when Mark Andrews returns (likely this week), but the Ravens will have to throw much more this week to keep pace with the Bengals. Cincy’s passing game was awful last weekend, but they should get back on track against a banged-up Baltimore secondary that will be missing Marcus Williams and probably Marlon Humphrey as well. This game has shootout potential, and I’d look for the Ravens to throw the ball 35+ times this week, and for them to continue to find ways to get the ball into Flowers’ hands. Flowers was Lamar’s first read often last Sunday, and that should continue in week 2. I’d expect something like 8+ targets this weekend and would be firing Flowers up as a PPR WR3.
WR Puka Nacua, LAR (Wk. 2: vs. SF): Nacua started to get some hype late last week when it became apparent that Cooper Kupp would be out for the opener, but I don’t think any of us expected the WR9 finish he posted in a surprising upset win over Seattle. Matt Stafford looked much closer to the guy who led the Rams to a Super Bowl two years ago, and Nacua and teammate Tutu Atwell were big beneficiaries of Stafford’s bounce back. Nacua led the team with a 39% target share and 35% air yardage share, and he seems to be the player who has stepped into Cooper Kupp’s target hog role while the star is on injured reserve. The matchup this week looks much tougher at first glance, but the 49ers allowed the 6th-most WR points per game in 2022 and the 14th-most in week 1. I wouldn’t go into this game expecting another top-10 finish for the rookie, but he should be a solid WR3 play.
WR Jordan Addison, MIN (Wk. 2: @Phi.): Addison had a strong NFL debut, posting 4 catches, 61 yards, and a touchdown on 6 targets vs the Bucs last weekend. The 6 targets accounted for just a 13.6% target share, but the Vikings figure to be one of the pass-heaviest teams in the league and Addison should see 6+ targets more weeks than not. The Vikings should be even more inclined to throw than usual this week as 6-point underdogs, and the Eagles will be missing starting corner James Bradberry and just gave up over 300 passing yards to Mac Jones and the Patriots last weekend. This could be a TJ Hockenson week with the Vikings o-line banged up and Kirk Cousins needing to get the ball out quickly, but there should still be plenty of volume for Addison to have a WR3 week.
TE Sam LaPorta, DET (Wk. 2: vs. Sea.): LaPorta didn’t finish with a crooked stat line in week 1, but he was in a route for 72% of the Lions’ dropbacks and still finished the week as the PPR TE8. This week he faces a Seattle defense that was absolutely shredded by tight ends in 2022, allowing a dozen or more PPR points to the position 9 times, including 39.9 points to TJ Hockenson playing in this Lions’ offense. The Seahawks didn’t allow a 12-point scorer in week 1 this year, but they did allow the 2nd-most TE receiving yards of any team in the opening week, coughing up 70 combined yards to Tyler Higbee and Brycen Hopkins on 14 yards per target. This is a premium matchup for tight ends, and LaPorta should be primed to take advantage of it as the full-time TE1 in Detroit. There are elite TEs who should be back in action this week, but I still like LaPorta’s chances to duplicate his top-8 finish from a week ago.
TE Luke Musgrave, GB (Wk. 2: @Atl.): Musgrave’s preseason usage carried over to week 1 as he logged an 80% route participation rate and a 25% air yard share in week 1 against the Bears. He gets a favorable matchup in week 2 against an Atlanta defense that allowed the 3rd-most tight end points in the league last year and surrendered a 5-41-1 line to Hayden Hurst last Sunday, good for a TE2 finish on the week. Green Bay’s pass catching group should get a little more crowded this week with the likely return of Christian Watson, but I expect more than the 27 passing attempts we saw from the Packers last week. The TE options after the elite guys remain uninspiring, so give me the freak athlete (Musgrave boasts a 9.78 out of 10 Relative Athletic Score) who has a full-time role and a good matchup. I like Musgrave this week if you’re searching for a streaming tight end.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
QB CJ Stroud, HOU (Wk. 2: vs. Ind.): Stroud still has some developing to do before he’s a trustworthy weekly option, but the Texans are content to let him drop back and throw the ball a lot. Stroud attempted 44 passes in week 1 and could push for 40 attempts again this week. He could have some extra time to throw this week – the Colts’ defense had the lowest blitz rate and 4th-lowest pressure rate in week 1 – but their game plan might look a little different facing off with a rookie QB rather than Trevor Lawrence. The high passing volume makes Stroud a viable QB2 option in superflex leagues, but he’s still got a low floor and I’d recommend playing a safer QB2 candidate if you can.
RB Roschon Johnson, CHI (Wk. 2: @TB): Johnson had a busy week 1 if you judge by the stat sheet alone. He led the backfield in snaps, tied for the team lead in targets, and found the end zone in the opener, but the vast majority of that happened in the 4th quarter when the Bears were down by 3 scores. Roschon’s performance was promising, and his role will increase if he keeps playing well, but you shouldn’t overreact to his week 1 totals. Khalil Herbert remains the Bears’ RB1, and D’Onta Foreman will continue to be involved as well. Johnson remains a part-time player this week facing off with a defense that allowed the 6th-fewest running back points and 4th-fewest RB receiving yards in 2022. I’d view him as a dicey RB3 option this week.
RB Kendre Miller, NO (Wk. 2: @Car.): Miller returned to practice on Wednesday after missing week 1 with a hamstring injury, but I’d be inclined to sit him Monday even if he plays. At first glance, it looks like a great spot to fire him up. Alvin Kamara is still suspended, Jamaal Williams was wildly inefficient in week 1 with 18 carries for 45 yards, and this week’s opponent coughed up more running back points than any other team in the league last weekend. This seems like a spot where Miller could seize a significant role in a plus matchup, right? As Lee Corso would say, not so fast my friends. The crooked point total the Falcons RBs put on the Panthers was an aberration. Atlanta added Bijan Robinson to an offense that was already a top-4 rushing offense in the NFL last season. They’re going to make a lot of defenses look bad. The Panthers aren’t an elite run defense, but they aren’t as bad as the Falcons made them look. This was a middling unit last season, allowing the 17th-most RB points per game, and the Saints were a bottom half rushing offense even with Alvin Kamara. Don’t expect a blowup game from Miller here in a role where he’s sharing the backfield with Williams. He may still finish with a useful fantasy day if he can find his way into the end zone but starting him in a middling matchup when he has injury concerns and an uncertain role doesn’t sound like a good time to me. The fact that the Saints play Monday night is another knock against Miller. If you plan to start him and he winds up inactive, you’ll be scrambling for a replacement.
RB Tank Bigsby, JAX (Wk. 2: vs. KC): Bigsby found the end zone in week one and his week 2 opponent coughed up 116 running back rushing yards to the Lions last week, but Bigsby’s role isn’t big enough to rely on this week. Travis Etienne dominated the Jaguars’ backfield workload in the opener, playing 80% of the snaps, but Bigsby got the two carries when the Jags got in close. There’s a chance that goal line role continues for Tank, so he does have some fringe value since this matchup has the highest Vegas point total of the week, but if Tank doesn’t find the end zone, you’re going to be bummed if you started him.
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA (Wk. 2: @Det.): As expected, JSN functioned as the clear WR3 for Seattle in week 1. He was in a route on 66% of the team passing dropbacks while DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett were both at 90% or better, and while JSN did tie for a team-high 5 targets, he saw a measly 3% of the team air yards. Smith-Njigba turned those short targets into just 3 catches and 13 yards. You’d like to see more downfield usage from him, but the reality is that the Seahawks’ pass protection just wasn’t very good in the opener, forcing a lot of quick throws from Geno Smith. Smith faced the 8th-highest pressure rate in week 1 and will be without both of his starting tackles in week 2 due to injury. Part of the plan to replace those tackles was signing 41-year-old free agent Jason Peters off the street. Aidan Hutchinson could have a field day in this game, and JSN should be in line for more short targets. A big game isn’t out of the question as the Seahawks have scored 48 and 51 points in their last two meetings with the Lions, but these aren’t the same Lions. I’d probably keep JSN benched another week unless you’re desperate in a deeper PPR league.
WR Josh Downs, IND (Wk. 2: @Hou.): Week one included a lot of positive takeaways for Josh Downs. He was in a route on 77% of the Colts’ dropbacks and earned 5 targets in an offense that was much more pass-heavy than expected in the opener. The problem for Downs was his 3.4-yard aDOT. It would take a lot of targets or a lot of yards after the catch to compile a solid fantasy day on those kinds of short passes. The Texans allowed the 12th-fewest wide receiver points last season, but they’re likely to be missing both of their starting safeties. I’d still probably avoid Downs this week in anything but deep PPR leagues. 10 PPR points would be a pleasant surprise.
WR Rashee Rice, KC (Wk. 2: @Jax.): Rice impressed in week 1, tying for a team-high 5 targets and turning it into a 3-29-1 performance on Thursday night. He’s going to earn more opportunities going forward if he keeps making the most of his chances, but his 27% route participation rate in the opener isn’t going to lead to sustainable production, especially with Travis Kelce likely back to hog targets this week. Jacksonville was just a middling WR defense a year ago, but the Chiefs have too many WRs that they’ll try to get involved for you to rely on any of them for fantasy right now. You’d be best served playing the waiting game until we really know what everyone’s role will look like.
WR Jayden Reed, GB (Wk. 2: @Atl.): The final stat line didn’t look pretty for Reed as he turned 5 targets and a rushing attempt into just 6.6 PPR points, but a deeper look shows more positives than the surface level stats. Reed was targeted on 25% of his routes run and had a team-high 32% air yardage share. You’d prefer to see more than 2 catches on 5 targets, but just 3 of those targets were catchable and Jordan Love constantly looked for Reed on the money downs. 40% of Love’s 3rd and 4th down targets were intended for the rookie. The unfortunate thing for Reed is the impending return of Christian Watson. Watson is hoping to return this week, and if it happens, he’ll likely cut into Reed’s opportunities a bit. I do expect the Packers to have to throw more this week in a game that shouldn’t be as lopsided, but Reed will be hard to trust if the Packers’ WR1 is healthy. I’d keep Reed benched this week if Watson plays. If Watson sits again, Reed will have a great chance to at least match the 6 opportunities he got in week 1, so keep an eye on the injury report here.
WR Jonathan Mingo, CAR (Wk. 2: vs. NO): Mingo was a full-time player in week one, running a route on 93% of the team’s passing dropbacks and earning 5 targets, but he’s going to have to endure some growing pains from teammate Bryce Young who posted the lowest PFF passing grade of any QB in week 1. Those 5 targets for Mingo turned into 2 catches and 17 yards, and the Saints are a better defense than the Falcons. There’s a chance for improved performance from Young and more production for Mingo this week, but I wouldn’t want to rely on it.
TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF (Wk. 2: vs. LV): Entering the season there was a lingering question about what the snap share would look like between Buffalo’s TE2 Dalton Kincaid and WR3 Deonte Harty, and the week 1 returns overwhelmingly favored Kincaid as he logged a 76% route participation rate compared to just 26% for Harty. Kincaid is close to a full-time player, but a troubling development in week 1 was his lack of downfield usage. Kincaid was targeted 4 times against the Jets, but his average target depth was just a yard and a half downfield. The deeper targets were mostly reserved for Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs. That could change as the season goes on, but I’d prefer one of the other rookie starting tight ends over Kincaid this week as both have better matchups. The Raiders did allow the 12th-most TE points last season, but Kincaid is splitting the TE work with Dawson Knox and Las Vegas allowed the 7th-fewest yards per catch to the position in 2022. If you can live with a ‘5 catches for 30 yards’ type of stat line from your tight end, Kincaid might be up your alley this week, but I’d aim higher in week 2.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
QB Bryce Young, CAR (Wk. 2: vs. NO): As I mentioned above, no QB earned a lower passing grade from Pro Football Focus in week 1 than Bryce Young. He’s got a learning curve ahead of him and faces what should be a brutal matchup in week 2. The Saints picked off Ryan Tannehill 3 times, sacked him 3 times, and held him to just a 28.8 passer rating in week 1. Expecting a bounce back from Young this week against that defense is just asking for a single-digit point total from your QB spot.
RB Sean Tucker, TB (Wk. 2: vs. Chi.): Tucker took a distant back seat to Rachaad White in the opener, handling just 15% of the snaps, but White looked like the same inefficient back we saw in 2022 as he rushed for just 39 yards on 17 carries. White should continue to get the bulk of the backfield work for now, relegating Tucker to benches in fantasy leagues, but if Rachaad doesn’t start to show signs of improvement, Tucker’s time is coming.
RB Zach Charbonnet, SEA (Wk. 2: @Det.): Two of my biggest misses of week 1 were expecting the Seahawks to beat the Rams without much difficulty and expecting Seattle to ease Kenneth Walker III back into the lineup after his preseason groin injury. Instead, the Seahawks were rolled by the Rams and KW3 dominated the backfield work, playing 65% of the snaps and handling 71% of the team rushing attempts. Charbonnet didn’t even have the rest of the workload to himself, he shared it with DeeJay Dallas. This matchup might look enticing considering that Seattle has scored 51 and 48 points in their two meetings with the Lions in the last 2 years, but these aren’t the same old Lions and Charbonnet won’t see the field enough to be trusted in fantasy lineups.
WR Quentin Johnston, LAC (Wk. 2: @Ten.): Johnston earned more targets than Joshua Palmer in week one, but he ran about half as many routes as his teammate as he operated as the team’s WR4. The Chargers were more run-heavy than we expected in week 1, which limits Johston’s upside even more, but that may change in week 2 with Austin Ekeler banged up and LA facing a much tougher run defense in Tennessee. I’d keep waiting for Johnston’s role to grow before considering him in lineups.
WR Michael Wilson, ARI (Wk. 2: vs. NYG): If you watched Josh Dobbs and the Arizona offense in week 1, you don’t need me to tell you that starting the pass-catchers in that offense isn’t a great idea. There were some promising numbers in Wilson’s debut, including a 91% route participation rate and a 39% air yardage share, but it resulted in just 2 catches for 19 yards. Dobbs is trying to get by with dink & dunk throws (he averaged just 6.3 yards per completion last weekend), and Wilson just isn’t going to produce much if this passing game can’t threaten the intermediate level.
WR Trey Palmer, TB (Wk. 2: vs. Chi.): Palmer scored a TD in week 1, but he totaled just 2 catches for 8 yards on 3 targets. The passing targets in this offense are going to be funneled to Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Palmer is going to battle for scraps with Cade Otton, Deven Thompkins and the running backs each week. He’s no more than a TD dart throw.
WR Marvin Mims Jr., DEN (Wk. 2: vs. Was.): Mims was expected to operate as the Broncos WR2 in the opener with Jerry Jeudy sidelined, and instead he worked as the WR4 behind both Lil’Jordan Humphrey and Brandon Johnson. Russell Wilson spread the targets around in week 1 with 8 different players seeing multiple targets, and nobody seeing more than 6, but 2-3 targets for Mims on limited snaps isn’t going to make him fantasy viable.
WR Jalin Hyatt, NYG (Wk. 2: @Ari.): Hyatt was in a route on 39% of the Giants’ passing dropbacks in week 1, but he saw just 1 target that he didn’t catch. Your hope if you play him is that he catches a deep TD against a bad Arizona defense, but the Cardinals allowed just one completion of 20 or more yards in week 1. Another goose egg is entirely possible here.
TE Darnell Washington, PIT (Wk. 2: vs. Cle.): Pat Freiermuth exited the Steelers’ week 1 game with a chest injury, but don’t let that fool you into thinking that Washington is a sleeper this week. It was Connor Heyward who stepped in and earned 4 second half targets. Washington was in a route on 31% of the team passing dropbacks (compared to just 25% for Heyward), but the ball didn’t come his way at all. Whether Muth plays or not, Washington isn’t much more than a TD dart throw.
Players to sit who are injured or had very limited or non-existent week 1 roles: RB Evan Hull, IND, RB Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN, RB Chase Brown, CIN, RB Israel Abanikanda, NYJ, RB De’Von Achane, MIA, RB Chris Rodriguez, WAS, WR Xavier Hutchinson, HOU, WR Tyler Scott, CHI, WR Cedric Tillman, CLE, WR Tre Tucker, LV, TE Michael Mayer, LV
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Tyjae Spears, TEN (Wk. 2: vs. LAC): Spears didn’t put up a big fantasy point number in week 1, but his usage is worth taking note of. Spears actually out-snapped Derrick Henry in week 1. Henry still handled 79% of the rushing workload, but Spears was in a route on 50% of the Titans’ passing drop backs and led all running backs in air yards in week 1. Spears isn’t just the passing-down complement to Derrick Henry. The Titans are making an active effort to get him involved in the offense. This might not be the best spot to get him into the lineup as the Chargers allowed fewer than 4 receptions per game to opposing running backs last year, but Spears shouldn’t be a free agent in 12-team PPR leagues. He’s worth a stash if you can make room for him.
WR Tank Dell, HOU (Wk. 2: vs. Ind.): Dell ran a route on just 46% of the Texans’ dropbacks in week 1, but Houston placed starting receiver Noah Brown on IR this week, and John Metchie’s status is still uncertain for week 2. That could mean Dell is in line to play a full complement of snaps, and I already mentioned that this offense may push for 40 pass attempts again this week. Robert Woods and Nico Collins dominated targets last week, but with more playing time we could see Dell reach 6-7 targets, and he has the kind of speed and run-after-catch skills that could turn any reception into a TD. He’s mostly an option for the deepest leagues and DFS lineups this week, but Dell has an intriguing ceiling against the Colts.
WRs Demario Douglas & Kayshon Boutte, NE (Wk. 2: vs. Mia.): With DeVante Parker sidelined in week 1, Boutte was second on the team in routes run and Douglas was tied for second on the team in targets (both behind Kendrick Bourne). Both are worth a stash in deep leagues while the Patriots try to work out their receiver pecking order. JuJu Smith-Schuster is the highest paid WR on the team, but he was standing on the sideline during the Pats comeback effort last weekend. Of the two rookies, I’d prioritize Douglas since he was able to earn targets, but both have the chance to earn a substantial role if they make the most of their opportunities. Boutte was viewed as an elite WR prospect once upon a time, but Douglas had the higher day 3 draft capital of the two.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions this week. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
