Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 2 was a much more fun display than the opening week if you like offensive football. Week 1 featured some putrid passing lines and 9 games where there were fewer than 40 total points scored. In week 2, there were just 2 contests that failed to reach 40 total points, and fantasy points followed. We saw 16 different QBs hit 20 fantasy points last weekend, and also 17 running backs and 32 wide receivers that topped 15 PPR points.
We should see some regression to the mean there this week, so don’t treat last week’s point totals as the new normal moving forward. Most weeks it won’t take 14+ points to climb the ranks of the WR3s. The rookie crop has been performing at a high level already this season, though not all of it has come from the expected sources.
Bijan Robinson, Zay Flowers, and Jordan Addison have been great, but other highly drafted rookies like Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Quentin Johnston, and Zach Charbonnet have been slow to make a fantasy impact. The real surprises have come from the less heralded wide receivers in this class – Puka Nacua, Jayden Reed, Tank Dell, Marvin Mims Jr., Dontayvion Wicks, and Jalin Hyatt all piled up 80+ yards and/or a TD in week 2. Which of those guys can we count on going forward?
Stay tuned and I’ll tell you.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Let’s dig into week 3…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (Wk. 3: @Det.): Robinson has posted back-to-back top-10 fantasy finishes to start his career, and this week faces a Detroit defense that gave up two TDs to Kenneth Walker III last weekend. The Lions have held opposing runners to just 3.6 yards per carry through two weeks, but Bijan is a different type of running back. The Falcons will continue to lean on the running game, and Bijan’s role grew in week 2. Robinson should remain locked into your lineups as an RB1 this week.
WR Puka Nacua, LAR (Wk. 3: @Cin.): I warned against setting the expectations for Nacua too high after his incredible debut in Seattle. I did not expect him to have an even bigger game in week 2. At this point it’s clear the rookie will be holding down the Cooper Kupp role in this offense at least until Kupp returns, and he should continue to see a ton of targets each week. He’s joined in on Matt Stafford and Kupp’s daily breakfast film sessions, and the results of that are showing on the field. Nacua is currently the PPR WR2 in fantasy despite not scoring a touchdown yet. The Bengals have allowed the 10th-fewest WR points per game so far, but Puka hasn’t really given us much reason to temper our expectations. Another 10+ target game and potential top-12 finish is very possible yet again.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
QB Anthony Richardson, IND (Wk. 3: @Bal.): Keep an eye on the injury report here and make sure Richardson is good to go before plugging him in. The rookie QB is trying to come back from a concussion suffered last Sunday and isn’t practicing as of Thursday. If he’s able to get cleared, I’d view him as a low-end QB1 even in a tough matchup with Baltimore. The Ravens have allowed the 9th-fewest QB points so far, but the Colts will continue to let Richardson keep running and keep throwing a bunch. The rushing gives him a built-in floor that won’t kill you even if he has a sub-par passing day. This likely won’t be a ceiling day for AR, but he’ll be a passable starter if he’s able to suit up.
QB CJ Stroud, HOU (Wk. 3: @Jax.): If you have Stroud in superflex leagues, this is probably a good week to fire him up as a starter. Stroud has thrown 44+ pass attempts in each of his first two games, and his production caught up to that volume in week 2 with a QB13 finish in a week with a lot of strong QB play. This week he faces Jacksonville, who has allowed both QBs they’ve faced so far (Mahomes and Anthony Richardson) to tally 20+ fantasy points and 2 touchdowns. Stroud doesn’t have the passing ability of Mahomes or the running ability of Richardson, but he should throw enough to push for another top-15 finish.
RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (Wk. 3: vs. Atl.): Gibbs’ playing time was on the upswing in week 2 even before David Montgomery got hurt, but Montgomery’s injury opens the door for even more opportunity for the Lions’ rookie back. Craig Reynolds (or possibly Bam Knight) will see some playing time to share the workload with Gibbs, but Gibbs out-snapped Reynolds 17-to-10 after Montgomery was injured last Sunday. I’d expect a similar split this week. The Falcons have been pretty strong against opposing running backs, allowing the 6th-fewest points per game to the position, but largely that’s due to not giving up any touchdowns. Atlanta has allowed 119 rushing yards per game, and Gibbs is going to get enough work and is explosive enough to take advantage of them. I’d view Gibbs as a mid-range RB2 with upside for more this week. If nothing else, this game should be a great showcase for two excellent rookie running backs.
WR Zay Flowers, BAL (Wk. 3: vs. Ind.): Flowers’ usage took an expected step back in week 2 with Mark Andrews back in action, but he still turned 5 targets into a double-digit PPR performance. The Ravens got Flowers the ball further downfield against the Bengals with a 12.6-yard aDOT, and the Colts have been shredded by opposing WRs so far this year. Indy has allowed 5 different receivers to hit double-digit fantasy points, and the two team WR1s they faced put up lines up 8-101-1 (Calvin Ridley) and 7-146-1 (Nico Collins). In fairness, Mark Andrews is probably more the WR1 in this offense than Zay Flowers, but this is still a great spot for Flowers to finish as a top-30 fantasy wide receiver.
WR Jordan Addison, MIN (Wk. 3: vs. LAC): Addison still worked behind KJ Osborn as the Vikings’ WR3 last weekend in terms of playing time, but his route participation rate ticked up a little bit and the gap is closing. He continues to see a meaningful workload in a high-volume passing attack, earning 6 and 5 targets in the first two games and a 25% or higher air yardage share in both games. He also found the end zone in both games. This week the Vikings face the Chargers, who have allowed more fantasy points to wide receivers than any other team so far. Much of that damage was done by Tyreek Hill in the opener, but Addison should be in line for a similar workload to what we’ve been seeing in a plus matchup. 60+ yards and another possible TD feels like a realistic expectation.
WR Tank Dell, HOU (Wk. 3: @Jax.): Noah Brown’s trip to injured reserve opened the door a crack for Tank Dell in week 2, and the rookie bulldozed through it, tallying 7-72-1 on 10 targets against the Colts last Sunday. Dell has cemented himself as a full-time receiver in this offense, and while the Jaguars are a better pass defense than the Colts, Jacksonville is favored in this game by more than a touchdown and the Texans should again have high passing volume. Houston has thrown the ball 91 times in their first 2 games, and another 40+ attempts are highly likely here. Despite his diminutive size, Dell has spent the bulk of his snaps lined up on the perimeter, and the Jaguars have allowed the 6th-most PPR points to perimeter WRs through the first 2 weeks. Dell is pretty close to the borderline for me in this one, but that expected volume says err on the side of getting him into your lineups if it’s a close call for you.
TE Sam LaPorta, DET (Wk. 3: vs. Atl.): LaPorta has finished as the PPR TE8 in each of the first two weeks of the season, and I wouldn’t start fading him now. Sammy Ballgame saw his route participation and target rates both climb slightly in week 2, and this week’s opponent, Atlanta, allowed the 3rd-most TE points per game last year and the 10th-most so far this year despite facing just Hunter Henry and Luke Musgrave so far. LaPorta remains a good option this week if you don’t have an elite must-start TE.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
QB Bryce Young, CAR (Wk. 3: @Sea.): Young, like fellow rookie QBs Richardson & Stroud, gets a favorable matchup this weekend, but like Richardson, he’s not practicing as of Thursday and his status for week 3 is up in the air. The Seahawks have allowed over 320 passing yards in each of the last two weeks, and the absence of Tariq Woolen should make this secondary vulnerable to a big passing day again. Bryce has totaled less than 300 passing yards combined in his first two starts, but Seattle’s defense should look inviting after what he dealt with against the Saints last Monday. Obviously, the poor fantasy performances in the first two weeks would probably give you pause here, but I think this sets up well for Bryce to have his best game to-date in a matchup where the Panthers should be chasing points. If he’s able to suit up, he should be in consideration as a low-end QB2.
RB Roschon Johnson, CHI (Wk. 3: @KC): Roschon got a lot of hype last week after it became known that D’Onta Foreman would be inactive for the Bears’ week 2 contest with the Bucs, but it was Khalil Herbert who saw an increase in snaps and routes run. There is again a buzz around Johnson this week that he’s going to take over as the lead back sooner than later, but even if it happens this week, I don’t love Johnson as a fantasy starter against Kansas City. The Chiefs have allowed the 10th-fewest running back points and are 12.5-point favorites against the Bears. Chicago might have to abandon the run game early, and Kansas City has allowed just 5 receptions for 29 yards to opposing backs in the passing game. Neither of KC’s first two opponents was ever down by multiple scores, and Roschon did pile up 6 catches in garbage time in week 1, so there is some hope that he sees some similar passing game work late in this game, but I’d look for safer options if you have them.
RB Tyjae Spears, TEN (Wk. 3: @Cle.): Spears posted a top-30 PPR finish in week 2, but his playing time headed in the wrong direction as his snap share dropped from 56% in week 1 down to 35% last weekend. The Browns have allowed the 7th-fewest RB points per game, and Derrick Henry will continue to get the bulk of the backfield work. Spears’ best hope for fantasy production would be receiving work if the Titans fall behind, but that’s less likely to happen with Nick Chubb sidelined. The Browns are 3.5-point favorites, so it’s possible, but I would treat Spears like an RB4 option in PPR formats.
RB De’Von Achane, MIA (Wk. 3: vs. Den.): Achane has been an afterthought for the Dolphins in the first two weeks, but he enters the conversation for week 3 with Salvon Ahmed battling a groin injury. Assuming Ahmed misses this week, Achane will serve as the backup and change-of-pace back to Raheem Mostert, which likely means about a 25% snap share and a handful of touches. Achane’s 4.3-speed means he could take any one of those touches to the house against a Denver defense that has allowed the 9th-most running back points, but that limited workload makes him just a desperation play this week.
WR Jayden Reed, GB (Wk. 3: vs. NO): Reed found the end zone twice last weekend and is clearly an integral part of this passing game, but the Packers get a much stiffer test this week against the Saints, and Christian Watson could return and take targets away from Reed. Reed saw a boost in targets in week 2, but many of the looks were shorter manufactured touches like the touch-pass jet sweep that resulted in Reed’s first TD. Those touches will probably remain a part of his game, especially while Aaron Jones is out, but relying on him finding the end zone on those kinds of plays is a losing proposition in a tough matchup like this one. The Saints are a top-5 pass defense, and the return of Watson would ding Reed enough that I’d keep him benched in this one. He’s a WR4 option if Watson winds up inactive again. Watson practiced on Wednesday, but sat on Thursday.
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA (Wk. 3: vs. Car.): Smith-Njigba has continued to work as the WR3 in this offense, running a route on about two-thirds of the team dropbacks, but the more concerning number for the first-round pick is his 2.3-yard aDOT. He’s getting nothing but short targets, and this week faces a Carolina defense that has allowed the 3rd-fewest WR fantasy points. The Panthers did play a game against the passing-averse Falcons, so that helped keep that WR point total low, but JSN still has a hard path to a useful fantasy day if his usage doesn’t change. If you’re considering firing up Smith-Njigba this week, keep an eye on DK Metcalf’s injury status. If DK sits this week, JSN is an upside WR4 option. If Metcalf plays, I’d keep Jaxon parked on the bench.
WR Jonathan Mingo, CAR (Wk. 3: @Sea.): There are reasons for optimism for Mingo this week, but the Panthers’ passing game has been too big of a mess to rely on him this weekend. Mingo has been a major part of the offense for Carolina, logging a 95% route participation rate and 13 targets in the first two games, but that’s resulted in just 5 catches for 43 yards. This week’s matchup would’ve looked like a brutal one on paper last year. Seattle allowed the 3rd fewest WR points in the league in 2022, but they’ve surrendered the 4th-most so far in ’23 and will likely be without starting corner ‘Riq Woolen this week. Seattle allowed double-digit points to 5 different receivers in the first two weeks, and Mingo likely would’ve seen a lot of Woolen if he were able to play. There’s risk here, but Mingo has very real double-digit potential this week in a good matchup, even if the QB is Andy Dalton.
WR Michael Wilson, ARI (Wk. 3: vs. Dal.): Wilson’s playing time took a hit in week 2, with his route participation rate dropping from 91% in week 1 down to 56%, but he fielded the same 4 targets, and continues to be targeted downfield with a 20-yard aDOT. Wilson finished week 2 with 3 catches for 56 yards, but I would expect him to take a step backwards this week against an elite Dallas defense. Garrett Wilson broke loose for a 68-yard TD against Dallas last weekend, but aside from that one play, the Cowboys have allowed totals of 9 catches for 85 yards on 27 targets to wide receivers. I don’t trust any Arizona pass catchers to produce against Dallas this week.
WR Rashee Rice, KC (Wk. 3: vs. Chi.): Four different Kansas City receivers saw a higher route participation rate in week 2 than in week 1, and Rice wasn’t one of them. The rookie ran just 6 routes against the Jaguars and earned only 2 targets. This entire WR room feels like it’s going to be an unpredictable mess every week. You can’t rely on Rice in season long leagues.
TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF (Wk. 3: @Was.): Kincaid’s playing time decreased in week 2, even as his targets and production increased. The Utah product finished with 5-43 on 6 targets last weekend, but he gets a tougher matchup this Sunday. The Commanders allowed the 4th-fewest TE points last season and have allowed the 7th-fewest through the first two weeks this year. Washington has given up just 5.2 PPR points to non-in-line tight ends, and Kincaid has spent just 31.4% of his snaps lined up in-line. Dalton is still involved enough that he has upside as a fringe TE1, but the matchup is tougher than I like.
TE Luke Musgrave, GB (Wk. 3: vs. NO): Musgrave has posted an 80% route participation rate or better in each of the first two games, but it’s turned into just 7 total targets so far in what’s been a low-volume passing offense. This week he faces a New Orleans defense that blanked Chig Okonkwo in week 1 and held Hayden Hurst to 3-20 on Monday night. The Saints have allowed the fewest TE points per game in the league through 2 weeks, and Musgrave hasn’t been good enough yet that I’d expect him to overcome that tough matchup.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
RB Zach Charbonnet, SEA (Wk. 3: vs. Car.): Charbonnet’s role grew slightly in week 2, but he was out-touched by KW3 by a count of 18-to-6. For now, his best hopes for extended playing time would be garbage time in a blowout win, or an injury to KW3 ahead of him. The Seahawks are 5.5-point favorites this week, but that’s not enough for you to bet on garbage time here.
RB Sean Tucker, TB (Wk. 3: vs. Phi.): The Sean Tucker RB1 hopes took a hit in week 2 as Rachaad White had a bounce back game against an awful Chicago defense. White piled up 103 yards and a score on 22 touches last weekend while Tucker put up just 7 yards on 8 carries. Chase Edmonds suffered an MCL sprain in the game, so it’ll just be White and Tucker in this backfield for a few weeks, but White secured his role as the clear-cut RB1 for at least another couple of weeks with his performance last Sunday.
RB Eric Gray, NYG (Wk. 3: @SF): Saquon Barkley has been ruled out for this game, but that doesn’t mean Gray will get much of an opportunity. The Giants will roll with a committee that should see Matt Breida as the lead back, and Gary Brightwell involved as well. That means Gray would be lucky to see more than a handful of touches and faces a daunting 49ers defense. There are other options that you should be looking at this week.
RB Chase McLaughlin, DEN (Wk. 3: @Mia.): McLaughlin has logged just 1 touch in each of the first two games of the season. He found the end zone on that touch in week 2, but counting on a repeat performance would be foolhardy.
WR Marvin Mims Jr., DEN (Wk. 3: @Mia.): Mims had a massive week 2, piling up 113 receiving yards and a touchdown along with 10 rushing yards for good measure, but he was on the field for just 16 offensive snaps and ran just 6 routes all game. Those results are excellent, but there’s just no way it’s sustainable if his playing time doesn’t increase. The Broncos will likely be throwing a lot to keep pace with the Dolphins, but you’re praying for another deep ball or two to connect if you try to start him anywhere.
WR Dontayvion Wicks, GB (Wk. 3: vs. NO): Wicks played a lot more than expected in the first two weeks and put up a line of 2-40-1 last week to finish as the PPR WR40. A repeat performance is unlikely with Christian Watson close to ready to return. The Packers have rotated receivers quite a bit in the first two games, with no one reaching an 80% route participation rate in either game, but Wicks is the WR4 when everyone is healthy. The Saints have allowed just 160 passing yards per game in the first two weeks, and I don’t think there will be enough passing output in this game for Wicks to make an impact as the WR4. If Watson sits again, there is some upside with Wicks as a desperation streamer in deep leagues, but nothing more.
WR Quentin Johnston, LAC (Wk. 3: @Min.): Johnston was in a route on just 9 Justin Herbert dropbacks in week 2 and turned them into 1 catch for 7 yards on 2 targets. This would be a great week for Johnston to get going against a barely there Vikings’ defense in a game with shootout potential, but you can’t count on him with his current usage. The only format where I’d consider him is in a DFS showdown contest. There will come a week where his playing time unexpectedly makes a jump the way Justin Jefferson’s did in week 3 of his rookie year, but your guess is as good as mine as to when that jump will happen for Quentin.
WR Jalin Hyatt, NYG (Wk. 3: @SF): Hyatt had an explosive game in week 2 with 89 yards on just 2 receptions against the Cardinals, but he ran just 12 routes and faces a much tougher matchup this week. Hyatt’s opportunities have come down the field, and the 49ers have allowed just 3 catches of 20+ yards in the first two weeks, and none longer than 31 yards. Hyatt’s catches last week went for 31 and 58 yards. I wouldn’t count on him getting those same deep catches against San Francisco.
WR Trey Palmer, TB (Wk. 3: vs. Phi.): Palmer returned to reality last weekend after scoring a TD in his pro debut. He logged 1 catch for 20 yards on 2 targets last Sunday with just a 38% route participation rate. The Bucs are going to continue to funnel half of their weekly passing targets to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Anything more than a couple catches out of Palmer this week would be a surprise, even in a game where the Bucs figure to have negative game script and be throwing a lot.
WRs Kayshon Boutte & Demario Douglas, NE (Wk. 3: @NYJ): New England’s receiver usage looked drastically different in week 2 with DeVante Parker back in the lineup. Parker was in a route for 100% of the team passing attempts in week 2. Meanwhile, Boutte went from a 74% route participation in week 1 to a healthy scratch in week 2, and Demario Douglas went from 47% down to 9% after fumbling early in the game. You can’t trust either player this week, especially against the Jets’ stingy secondary.
TE Luke Schoonmaker, DAL (Wk. 3: @Ari.): Schoonmaker scored his first TD last Sunday, but he’s run a total of just 6 routes in the first 2 games. There’s no reason to consider him this week.
Rookies to sit who are injured or have had very limited or non-existent roles: QB Clayton Tune, ARI, RB Evan Hull, IND, RB Israel Abanikanda, NYJ, RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS, WR Xavier Hutchinson, HOU, WR Tyler Scott, CHI, WR Cedric Tillman, CLE, TE Michael Mayer, LV, TE Darnell Washington, PIT
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Kendre Miller, NO (Wk. 3: @GB): If you didn’t throw all of your FAAB budget at Jerome Ford this week, Kendre is an interesting pick up that should be quite a bit more reasonable to acquire. I like Miller better for DFS lineups this upcoming week than in season-long lineups, but there is a chance for a breakout week for Miller in his debut. Reports are that Kendre could’ve played last week if needed, but that HC Dennis Allen didn’t want to get him in after limited practice time for the week. I’d expect Miller to be ready to roll in this one, and to play ahead of Tony Jones while Jamaal Williams is out with a hamstring injury and Alvin Kamara remains suspended for another week. The Green Bay Packers have allowed the 2nd-most RB scrimmage yards per game through 2 weeks, and Miller should operate as the lead back against that defense. There’s risk here that he splits the work with Tony Jones, and that Taysom Hill snipes some goal-line work, but if you need immediate running back help in deeper leagues, Miller could be a great plug-and-play option this week.
RB Elijah Dotson, LAC (Wk. 3: @Min.): Head Coach Brandon Staley told reporters Monday that there is no timetable for Austin Ekeler’s return, leading us to believe that Ekeler will be unavailable for week 3. That puts Dotson in line for the RB2 role in a game that has shootout potential. Dotson played just 9 snaps last week, but still earned more targets than starter Joshua Kelley. The rookie recorded 70 catches at Northern Colorado last year (the same school Austin Ekeler attended), and he could serve as the lead receiving back until Ekeler returns. There is PPR upside here if you’re desperate in deep leagues, though Joshua Kelley will continue to be the lead back.
RB Tank Bigsby, JAX (Wk. 3: vs. Hou.): Bigsby didn’t handle a single touch last weekend after seeing 7 carries and a target in the opener, but his playing time didn’t really change from week 1. Tank was still on the field for around 20% of the Jaguars’ offensive plays in a defensive struggle with the Chiefs. I expect the offense as a whole to be better this weekend, and Bigsby could get some extended garbage time opportunity with the Jaguars favored by 8.5-points. Houston has allowed 4 running back rushing scores in the first two games of the season, and I think Bigsby has a great chance to get into the end zone in this game. The risk with Bigsby is high. He might not see many touches if the game script doesn’t go the way Vegas expects it to, but 8-10 fantasy points are very possible if it’s lopsided as expected.
RB Deuce Vaughn, DAL (Wk. 3: @Ari.): Vaughn tallied 32 yards on 6 touches last Sunday, and he could see an opportunity for extended run this week in another game the Cowboys should win easily. Dallas opens the week as a 12-point favorite, and if they win by multiple scores as Vegas expects, both Vaughn and Rico Dowdle could find their way to ample garbage time touches. Neither guy is one I would be thrilled about in season-long formats, but both have appeal in limited slate DFS contests.
WR Josh Downs, IND (Wk. 3: @Bal.): Downs has some sneaky upside this week in a matchup where the Colts are a touchdown underdog and should be throwing a bunch. Anthony Richardson might not clear the concussion protocol in time for this game, and Gardner Minshew under center could mean even more passing volume for the Colts. Minshew averaged over 300 passing yards per game in two starts for Shane Steichen’s Eagles offense last year, both in games where they played from behind a fair amount. If Minshew gets the start, Michael Pittman will remain the alpha WR1, but it’s worth noting that the Ravens have allowed the 9th-most PPR points to WRs lined up in the slot this season. Downs plays the majority of his snaps from the slot. Downs has a low aDOT, but the Ravens have allowed the 5th-most yards after catch this season. I like Downs’ chances to compile his way to a nice PPR day for deeper leagues assuming Minshew gets the start.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
