Welcome back to the Rookie Report! You’ve survived the week 7 bye-mageddon, and the scheduling gods have given you a reprieve for week 8 with no byes on the schedule. There will be more challenging bye weeks ahead, but all options are on the table this weekend. Unfortunately, that means there may be fewer rookies that are worth rolling the dice on with fewer lineup holes to be filled.
There are fewer rookies I’d lean toward starting this week than in a typical bye week, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t reasons to be excited for the rookie crop this weekend. We do get a couple of fun rookie matchups in week 8. We were deprived of Tyson Bagent vs Aidan O’Connell last week when the Raiders opted to start Brian Hoyer, but we get the rookie QB main event this week with CJ Stroud vs. Bryce Young in Carolina. Stroud has undoubtedly been the more impressive of the two so far this season, but this should be a fun game to watch with two QBs who should lead their franchises for the next few seasons or longer. We also get a fun tight end duel between Sam LaPorta and Michael Mayer, who were drafted with back-to-back picks in the early 2nd round. LaPorta has been a stud tight end all season, but Mayer has been emerging in recent weeks.
We also get the chance to see if some highly touted rookies can build on the breakout games they had in week 7. Dalton Kincaid, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Jahmyr Gibbs all posted their best days of the season and will be looking to keep it rolling in week 8. Hopefully, we’ll also get to see a bounce-back game out of Bijan Robinson after the Falcons skirted the injury-reporting rules last week and didn’t indicate that Robinson might be limited until well after their game had started. Robinson was limited to just 1 carry for the day on a handful of snaps due to headaches or some sort of illness that started Saturday night. Hopefully, he’s back to his usual self this week.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Let’s dive into week 8:
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (Wk. 8: @Ten.): Last week was brutal for anyone who started Robinson in fantasy lineups. There was no warning that anything was off with the star rookie until the game started and he wasn’t getting touches. He finished the day with just 1 carry for 3 yards. All I can tell you is to flush that game from your memory. Forget that it happened. Keep tabs on the injury report and make sure Bijan is ok this week, but if he’s good to go, he should be in your lineup, even in a tough matchup with the Titans. Tennessee ranks 4th in FTN’s run defense DVOA stat and has allowed fewer than 12 running back points per game if you throw out an uncharacteristically bad performance against the Colts’ backs, but if Bijan is back to his usual 15+ touch role, he should be treated as no worse than a high-end RB2.
RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (Wk. 8: vs. LV): Last Sunday’s tilt with the Ravens was an ugly one for Detroit, but we finally got to see Jahmyr Gibbs in a true lead back role where he was actually used in both the run game and as a receiver (although he didn’t really produce much until garbage time). Gibbs touched the ball just 4 times in the first half as the Ravens dominated possession, but he finished with 68 yards and a score on the ground and 9-58 on 10 targets as a receiver. I wouldn’t count on 9 catches from Gibbs again this week – game script should be much more positive as an 8-point favorite – but he should continue to function as the lead back in a plus matchup while David Montgomery continues to recover from his rib injury. He could lose some goal line and short-yardage work to Craig Reynolds, but Gibbs should still see plenty of work against a Raiders’ defense that has allowed the 5th-most RB points per game and ranks 28th in run defense DVOA. He’s a locked and loaded RB2 this week (assuming Monty doesn’t make a miracle return).
WR Puka Nacua, LAR (Wk. 8: @Dal.): Nacua faces a tough matchup against a Dallas defense that allows the 3rd-fewest WR points per game, but he’s earned the benefit of the doubt by now. You don’t worry about the matchups with Puka, you just plug him into the lineup. He’s averaged 10 targets and 84 yards per game in 3 contests since Cooper Kupp returned from IR.
WR Jordan Addison, MIN (Wk. 8: @GB): Addison had his coming out party on Monday night against the 49ers. He wasn’t used as the obvious WR1 in Minnesota’s first game without Justin Jefferson, but that changed in week 7. Addison set season highs in targets and air yards and led the team with 4 targets on 3rd or 4th down. Kirk Cousins looked for him when he needed someone to make a big play, and Addison obliged, making arguably the play of the game when he ripped an interception out of the hands of Charvarius Ward and sprinted for a long TD just before halftime. Addison should continue to function as the Vikings’ lead wide receiver until Justin Jefferson is able to return. This week that means a healthy number of targets against a defense that ranks 29th in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing #1 receiver, and 30th on deep throws. Addison is a solid WR2/3 this week. I’d give him a slight downgrade if Jaire Alexander returns for the Packers this week, but not enough of one that I’d sit him without great options in front of him.
WR Zay Flowers, BAL (Wk. 8: @Ari.): Flowers has scored double-digit PPR points in 6 of 7 games so far this season, and the Cardinals have allowed 15+ PPR points to an opposing receiver in 5 straight games. The Cardinals rank 31st in pass defense DVOA and the Ravens have the 4th-highest implied point total of the week. Everything shapes up for Flowers to be an easy call to start as a WR3. He’s got a safe floor and a high ceiling in this matchup. He may be a good option for DFS tournaments this week as the Cards have coughed up 148+ yards to 3 of the last 4 WR1s they faced (Aiyuk, Chase, Kupp).
TE Sam LaPorta, DET (Wk. 8: vs. LV): LaPorta faced one of the toughest tight end matchups in the league last weekend (Baltimore allows fewer than 30 tight end receiving yards per game), and he finished the week as the PPR TE10 with 6 catches and 52 yards on 7 targets. LaPorta has yet to finish below the PPR TE16 in any week this season, and his matchup this week is a little more forgiving than last week’s. There may be less passing volume for Detroit this week as 8-point favorites, but LaPorta is 2nd on the team in targets, and the Raiders have allowed the 18th-most TE points per game and rank just 22nd in pass defense DVOA on throws to opposing tight ends. LaPorta remains a top-10 tight end option this week.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
QB CJ Stroud, HOU (Wk. 8: @Car.): Stroud hasn’t had to throw a ton in recent weeks, averaging just 30.5 pass attempts per game in his last 4 contests, but he’s still managed to average 258 passing yards per game in that stretch, and he’s thrown for multiple TDs in 4 of his last 5 games. His opponents this week, the Panthers, have allowed multiple passing TDs to each of the last 3 QBs they’ve faced, and 3 passing scores to each of the last 2. Carolina ranks just 18th in pass defense DVOA and will likely struggle to contain the very efficient Stroud, who should have his receiving unit back at full strength with the return of Tank Dell. Stroud’s ceiling could be limited by his lower passing volume, but his recent performance trends and this matchup tell me he should be a fringe QB1 for week 8.
QB Bryce Young, CAR (Wk. 8: vs. Hou.): I list Young under the same header as CJ Stroud, but I don’t view them as comparable options this week. Stroud is in play for 1-QB leagues, while Young is a borderline option in 2-QB and superflex leagues. The Panthers have dropped each of their last 2 games by 3 scores, But Bryce recorded his two best fantasy games of the season in those contests and showed signs of improvement. The Panthers simplified their offense in week 6, and Young seemed to be more comfortable, at least early on in that game. He’s now had a bye week to make more strides and this week he faces a Houston team that has allowed the 9th-most QB points per game and ranks 22nd in pass defense DVOA. The reasonable ceiling here is probably 250 yards and 2 scores, and the floor is still low, but I like Young’s chances of cracking the top-20 QBs for the week.
RB Roschon Johnson, CHI (Wk. 8: @LAC): Johnson has missed 2 weeks now in the concussion protocol, so I’d be surprised if he wasn’t able to return this week. The matchup is a decent one against a Chargers’ defense that ranks 23rd in run defense DVOA and has allowed an opposing back to reach 12+ fantasy points in each game this season, but Johnson will likely be splitting the workload with D’Onta Foreman this week after Foreman showed out against the Raiders last Sunday to the tune of 120 scrimmage yards and 3 TDs. Johnson’s biggest advantage over Foreman this week will likely come in the passing game. Game script should keep the Bears throwing as 8.5-point underdogs, and while Foreman did draw 5 targets last weekend, the Bears showed a preference early in the year to use Johnson in passing situations. He was the primary option in long down & distance situations and in the 2-minute offense early in the season, and he should resume that role if he returns this week. The Chargers have allowed 4 different backs to catch at least 4 passes in their last 4 games, and the Bears’ RBs earned a 32% target share in Tyson Bagent’s first career start. Johnson has a great chance to finish as a PPR RB3 or better assuming he’s able to suit up this week.
WR Josh Downs, IND (Wk. 8: vs. NO): The injury to Anthony Richardson may not be great for the Colts’ franchise, but it’s been good for Josh Downs’ fantasy output. The Colts throw more with Gardner Minshew under center, and Downs is one of his favorite targets. In his last 5 starts in a Shane Steichen offense, Minshew has averaged 39 passing attempts and 298 yards per game. Downs has earned a 22.2% target share from Minshew this year, and he’s averaged 6 catches for 68 yards on 8.7 targets per game in Minshew’s 3 starts. He’s also found the end zone in two of them. The Saints do rank 8th in pass defense DVOA, so this isn’t an easy matchup, but they’ve allowed the 4th-most receiving yards and 5th-most yards after catch to opposing slot receivers. Downs is 4th in the NFL in WR slot snaps. For the season the Saints have allowed 12+ fantasy points to 5 different wide receivers. 3 of them play primarily in the slot. They’ve given up slot receiving lines of 7-54-1 to Adam Thielen, 3-63 to Jayden Reed, 4-45-1 to Deven Thompkins, and 6-90-1 to Christian Kirk. I wouldn’t count on another 20-point game from Downs, but there’s reason to like him as a WR3 in this matchup, even if Michael Pittman Jr. gets a bit of squeaky wheel treatment this week after complaining about his role.
WR Rashee Rice, KC (Wk. 8: @Den.): Rice has tallied 10+ PPR points in 4 of his last 5 games, logged his highest route participation rate of the season last weekend, and faces a defense this weekend that ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA. Rice has seen fluctuations in his weekly route participation rate, but his targets have been consistent. He’s been targeted 5+ times in 4 of the last 5 games (and targeted 4 times in the other). He’s had a solid PPR floor as a WR3/4 option, and this week he might have a little extra ceiling against an awful Broncos’ secondary. Rice’s 53.1% slot rate means he’ll likely avoid Patrick Surtain’s coverage.
TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF (Wk. 8: vs. TB): Kincaid finally had the breakout game that we’ve been waiting for all season last week. I mentioned last week that Kincaid has struggled this season because defenses haven’t treated him as a tight end when both he and Dawson Knox were on the field. They’ve lined up in nickel and dime and covered Kincaid with a cornerback. Last weekend with Knox battling a wrist injury and playing limited snaps, Kincaid finally was able to be used more as a traditional tight end, and the result was 8 catches for 75 yards on 8 targets. It’s been reported that Knox will now have wrist surgery and likely be placed on IR. That means Kincaid gets the TE role all to himself for a bit. The matchup this week isn’t great against a Tampa defense that allows the 10th-fewest TE points per game, but a player with Kincaid’s skills playing a full-time role with Josh Allen as his QB is a sure-fire top-12 option at the position.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
RB Emari Demercado, ARI (Wk. 8: vs. Bal.): Demercado is right on the borderline for me this week. He was a big disappointment in week 6 after being the hot waiver pickup of the week and then totaling just 3 touches against the Rams, but his underlying usage gave reasons for hope. He still led the Cardinals backs in snaps and routes run in that game, and in week 7, he was given the lead back role we expected in week 6. The TCU product handled 13 carries and 5 targets last weekend en route to a PPR RB22 finish against what has been a stingy Seahawks run defense. He should have a similar role this week but gets a similarly tough matchup with the Ravens. Baltimore ranks 7th in run defense DVOA and is favored by 8.5 points in this game, so I wouldn’t count on Demercado getting much going on the ground. If he’s going to produce, he’s going to have to do it through the air, where he hasn’t been particularly efficient. The Ravens have been vulnerable to receiving backs, allowing 30+ receiving yards to 4 different running backs this season, but Demercado has averaged just 4.2 yards per target on the season. He’ll have to improve on that number or find the end zone this week if he wants to repeat or improve on that RB22 finish. He’s in play as an RB3 this week, but I don’t see a ton of ceiling in a matchup where points may be at a premium for the Cardinals.
RB Tyjae Spears, TEN (Wk. 8: vs. Atl.): Spears has been surprisingly productive this year for a back playing alongside Derrick Henry. He’s played over 50% of the offensive snaps in 5 out of 6 games, including 4 in a row, and he’s finished as a top-30 PPR back 4 times this season. With that in mind, he’s definitely in play this week as a flex/RB3 option in PPR leagues, but I’d take a cautious approach here with the Titans’ QB situation in flux. The expectation is that Ryan Tannehill will miss this game, and that Will Levis will get the start with Malik Willis mixing in as well. Willis in his short career has targeted running backs in the passing game at a lower rate than Tannehill, and no running back caught 20+ passes from Will Levis in his two seasons at Kentucky. I’m not sure we can expect Spears’ usual 4-5 targets in this game, and Atlanta is a tough matchup in the run game. The Falcons have allowed the 2nd-fewest RB points per game and rank 5th in run defense DVOA. Only Rachaad White has caught for 30+ yards against them out of the backfield. There’s still upside for Spears if he can break off a long run or reception, but there’s more risk of a down week than usual for the rookie.
RB Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN (Wk. 8: vs. KC): McLaughlin played just 10 snaps in week 7 as Javonte Williams got a week closer to full strength, but that may have been a result of some rare positive game script for the Broncos. There should be less of that this week against the Chiefs, who are 8-point favorites, and McLaughlin did still manage 46 scrimmage yards on the limited snaps last week. Still, even in a pass-heavy game script McLaughlin will be splitting receiving opportunities with Williams and Samaje Perine, and KC has allowed just one running back to catch more than 2 passes against them, and none to catch for more than 20 receiving yards. With Mclaughlin’s limited role, you’ll need him to be extremely efficient to produce a fantasy-worthy performance.
WR Tank Dell, HOU (Wk. 8: @Car.): Dell finds himself in his usual landing spot this week, squarely on the start/sit borderline, but I’d place him on the wrong side of the cut line with no teams on byes. The Texans have averaged just 30.5 passing attempts per game in their last 4 games, and they’re 3-point favorites this week and shouldn’t be forced to throw much more than that average. They also have quite a few pass catchers to divvy those targets up between. The Panthers aren’t a difficult matchup, ranking just a middling 18th in pass defense DVOA. For the season, Dell has been targeted on 22.9% of his routes against zone coverage, and the Panthers play zone at the 3rd-highest rate in the league. This feels like the kind of game where Dell will post something like 5 catches for 60 yards, but there’s so much weekly volatility in how the Texans’ receivers are used that it’s tough to rely on him as a WR3.
WRs Jaxon Smith-Njigba & Jake Bobo, SEA (Wk. 8: vs. Cle.): DK Metcalf missed week 7’s meeting with the Cardinals, and JSN and Bobo each benefitted by seeing 5+ targets and finding the end zone. Metcalf is practicing this week and should return, but Tyler Lockett popped up on the injury report as well and missed practice Wednesday with a hamstring issue. It’s likely just precautionary, and I’d expect Lockett to play, but it’s worth monitoring. If Lockett misses this week’s game, both JSN and Bobo would get a boost again. If both Metcalf and Lockett play, Bobo would be the receiver most negatively impacted. He was putting up route participation rates in the 25-30% range prior to last week before spiking to 86% with Metcalf out. No matter what receivers are healthy, Seattle is facing arguably the toughest pass defense in the league. The Browns rank 2nd in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 2nd-fewest WR points per game. If both starters are healthy, Bobo is off the fantasy radar. He just won’t see enough playing time to produce against this defense. If someone is out, he becomes more of a TD dart throw. I’d lean away from using JSN as well this week, but he’s more viable. The problem for him is that the Browns play man coverage at the highest rate in the league, and JSN just isn’t as effective at getting open vs. man coverage. Roto Underworld credits him with a 37% route win rate vs. man coverage compared to 54% vs. zone. I’d expect most of the WR production this week to go to Metcalf and Lockett. Even if Lockett sits, I’d treat JSN as a WR4 option in the tough matchup.
WR Jonathan Mingo, CAR (Wk. 8: vs. Hou.): Mingo was in a route on nearly every Carolina passing dropback in week 6 ahead of their bye, but he earned just 3 targets on 38 Bryce Young pass attempts in that game. We still haven’t seen Mingo reach double-digit PPR points despite playing a full-time role and averaging 6 targets per game. He’s mostly running routes to create space for Adam Thielen. I wouldn’t count on this week being the one where Mingo has a breakout game. The Texans have allowed the 5th-fewest WR points per game, and week 6 was the first game of the Panthers new ‘simplified’ offense for Bryce Young, and Mingo saw his lowest target total of the year in that game. I’m not sure a bounce-back is coming this week. I’d take it as a pleasant surprise if Mingo topped 50 yards for the first time this season.
WR Michael Wilson, ARI (Wk. 8: vs. Bal.): Wilson disappointed last weekend with just 3 catches for 26 yards in a matchup vs. the zone-heavy Seahawks. This week he faces off with the Ravens, who rank 1st in pass defense DVOA and are in the top-6 in the league in man coverage rate. Wilson has drawn a target on just 5.7% of his matchups vs. man coverage compared with an 18.8% target rate vs. zone. Wilson has caught for 50+ yards in 4 of 7 games this year, and there’s still upside here in a game where Arizona is almost certain to be playing from behind and throwing, but this doesn’t look like the type of matchup where Wilson has thrived this year. With no byes on the schedule, there are likely better options on your roster than Wilson this week.
WR Jalin Hyatt, NYG (Wk. 8: vs. NYJ): Hyatt’s increased playing time finally resulted in a big performance last week as he pulled in receptions of 42 and 33 yards and set a season-high with 5 targets. He’s going to continue to operate as the Giants’ WR2 going forward, and he should keep seeing a few deep targets per game as long as Tyrod Taylor is under center, but this week he gets a tough matchup to cash in those opportunities. The Jets are on track to get both starting cornerbacks - Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed - back from injury this week, and for the season they allow the fewest WR points per game and rank 3rd in pass defense DVOA on deep throws. They’ve given up just 5 completions of 25+ yards to opposing wide receivers this year. Hyatt’s deep targets mean he has a chance to put up a solid game on just a few opportunities, but I wouldn’t count on him doing so in this matchup.
WR Marvin Mims, Jr., DEN (Wk. 8: vs. KC): Mims ran more routes than Brandon Johnson for just the 2nd time all season in week 7. That only amounted to 14 routes and 1 uncatchable target in a game where the Broncos played from ahead for once, but they should be back to their usual trailing game script and throwing a bunch against the Chiefs this weekend. Mims still isn’t playing enough to be counted on for fantasy lineups, especially against a defense that allows the 8th-fewest WR points per game and ranks 6th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws. He’ll need to make a splash play or two to return value this week, and while deep targets have been there for Mims, he’s recorded negative 7 scrimmage yards in the past 3 weeks combined. There’s more upside here than meets the eye if his increased playing time continues in trailing game script, but he’s still not really worth consideration outside of leagues that give points for return yards.
TE Luke Musgrave, GB (Wk. 8: vs. Min.): Musgrave’s season got off to a promising start, but his usage since suffering a week 4 concussion has been less than inspiring. Prior to the concussion, he had run a route on over 80% of the Packers’ dropbacks in each of the first 3 games of the year and tallied over 70 air yards in two of them. In the two full games he’s played since, that route participation rate has been around 70%, and he’s been under 20 air yards in each game. He’s still seeing a healthy number of targets (6 per game in the last two contests), but his 10 catches in those games turned into just 64 yards. The Vikings have been just a middling tight end defense, allowing the 15th-most points per game to the position, but George Kittle is the only starting tight end to average more than 6 yards per target against them. Musgrave will probably be hard pressed to get to 50 yards this week, which means you’re counting on a TD for him to post a useful fantasy week. He’s probably still a top 15-18 option at the position, but there are safer choices you can use at tight end this week with no teams on byes.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
QB Aidan O’Connell, LV (Wk. 8: @Det.): It looks like Jimmy Garoppolo is going to be able to return this week barring a setback, but even if O’Connell gets the nod, I’d probably look elsewhere in 2-QB formats. The rookie has shown an ability to move the ball in the two games where he’s seen action, but he’s also turned the ball over 4 times in just a game and a quarter. The Lions have been vulnerable to QBs, coughing up the 8th-most fantasy points per game to the position largely because opposing teams have been chasing them on the scoreboard, but they still rank 9th in pass defense DVOA and should be playing with an edge after getting trounced by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens last week. This isn’t the week you want to catch the Lions’ defense if you’re a rookie QB. I would treat O’Connell as a bottom-5 starting option this week if by some chance he gets the start.
QB Will Levis, TEN (Wk. 8: vs. Atl.): Ryan Tannehill has been battling an ankle injury that could keep him out this week, and head coach Mike Vrabel said that if Tannehill misses this game, Levis will start, but Malik Willis will mix in as well. You don’t need me to tell you that you shouldn’t start either QB of a Titans’ team that ranks 32nd in pass attempts and 30th in passing yards if 2 QBs are splitting the job. The Falcons rank just 29th in pass defense DVOA, but that’s not enough for me to consider using Levis in his first NFL action. He’s worth monitoring in case he shows out, but he shouldn’t be doing it from in your lineup.
RB Zach Charbonnet, SEA (Wk. 8: vs. Cle.): Charbonnet’s ancillary role in this offense behind Kenneth Walker III has value in weeks where Seattle can play from ahead against bad run defenses. This isn’t one of those weeks. Seattle is favored by a field goal against Cleveland this weekend, but the Browns rank 2nd in run defense DVOA and have allowed just one running back to reach double-digit fantasy points against them on fewer than 14 touches. Charbs hasn’t logged more than 10 touches in any game this season. With no teams on byes, he’s in the RB4/RB5 range this week. This changes if Kenneth Walker is unable to play on Sunday. Walker, like teammate Tyler Lockett, popped up on the injury report as a DNP (did not practice) on Wednesday. If Walker sits, Charbonnet catapults up to the range of a low-end RB2 even in a tough matchup.
RB Kendre Miller, NO (Wk. 8: @Ind.): Miller logged just 3 offensive snaps and didn’t record a single touch last week with Jamaal Williams back from injury against the Jaguars. Williams didn’t play a ton either as Alvin Kamara dominated the backfield work. Head Coach Dennis Allen said that the plan going forward is to get Miller and Williams more involved and balance out those touches more, but I don’t know how you can rely on a running back who has touched the ball more than 3 times just once in the last 4 games, even when he’s facing a defense that allows the 6th-most RB points per game. The one game in that span with extended work for Kendre was a 34-0 drubbing of the Patriots. I don’t expect that kind of lopsided game this week, where the Saints are 1-point underdogs to the Colts.
RB Zach Evans, LAR (Wk. 8: @Dal.): Evans seemed to be in line for a significant workload last weekend after both Kyren Williams and Ronnie Rivers were placed on IR, but instead the Rams promoted Royce Freeman from the practice squad and signed Darrell Henderson off the street and let that duo handle all of the running back reps. Evans wasn’t on the field for a single offensive snap, and I don’t see that changing much this week.
RB Tank Bigsby, JAX (Wk. 8: @Pit.): Bigsby has totaled just 13 carries and 2 targets in the last 5 games combined. He continues to be off the fantasy radar unless something happens to Travis Etienne.
RB Keaton Mitchell, BAL (Wk. 8: @Ari.): The Ravens were up 28-0 by the middle of the 2nd quarter last weekend, and Mitchell still only managed to play two snaps and touched the ball just once. If he’s not going to be involved even in garbage time, there’s no reason to roster him.
RB Sean Tucker, TB (Wk. 8: @Buf.): Tucker hasn’t played an offensive snap since week 3. He’s limited to just special teams now.
WR Trey Palmer, TB (Wk. 8: @Buf.): Palmer set a new season-high with 32 routes run last week against Atlanta, but he was targeted just twice, making his 6-target game in week 6 look more like an aberration than a sign of an increasing role. The Bucs’ targets will continue to be funneled to Evans & Godwin, and Palmer will continue to battle with Cade Otton, Deven Tompkins, and Rachaad White for what’s left over. I wouldn’t expect a big target total this week against a Buffalo defense that ranks 5th in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing WR3.
WRs Quentin Johnston & Derius Davis, LAC (Wk. 8: vs. Chi.): Johnston set a season-high last week for receiving yards with just 20. He’s running a sizeable number of routes, but he hasn’t been targeted more than 3 times in any game this season. He was outproduced in fantasy points last week by rookie teammate Derius Davis, who ran all of 5 routes against the Chiefs. At some point, the Chargers are going to actually get Johnston more involved, and maybe it happens this week against a bad Bears’ defense, but I’d be much more willing to live with it if he had a blow-up game from my bench than if he had another 2–3-point game from in my lineup. Davis just isn’t playing enough snaps to be worth consideration.
WR Tyler Scott, CHI (Wk. 8: @LAC): Scott was in a route on nearly 70% of the Bears’ dropbacks in week 7 (a season-high), but that turned into just 2 catches for 19 yards on 3 targets. He also added 14 rushing yards as a bonus, but with Bagent at QB, the Bears’ passing game likely won’t be explosive enough for an ancillary receiver like Scott to be fantasy-relevant. I liked his upside last week as a deep threat against a bad Raiders’ defense but won’t go back to that well against a bad Chargers’ defense given Bagent’s 2-yard aDOT last weekend. If Bagent isn’t going to push the ball down the field, Scott isn’t going to provide fantasy value.
WR Tre Tucker, LV (Wk. 8: @Det.): Tucker was over a 50% route participation rate for the 2nd game in a row last week, but he didn’t see the same deep targets he did in week 6. Tucker will always be fighting for the scraps left over by Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Josh Jacobs, so if those few targets he sees are short ones, there’s not a lot of fantasy value there. His aDOT prior to week 7 was 27 yards. His aDOT in week 7 was just 7.3 yards. Maybe the long targets return with Jimmy Garoppolo likely back under center, but both of Tucker’s multi-target games have occurred while Jimmy G was sidelined with injury.
Rookies to sit who are injured or have had very limited or non-existent roles: QB Anthony Richardson, IND, QB Clayton Tune, ARI, RBs De’Von Achane & Christopher Brooks, MIA, RB Chase Brown, CIN, RB Deuce Vaughn, DAL, RB Eric Gray, NYG, RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS, RB Elijah Dotson, LAC, RB Israel Abanikanda, NYJ, WR Dontayvion Wicks, GB, WR Ronnie Bell, SF, WR Cedric Tillman, CLE, WR Xavier Hutchinson, HOU, WR Kayshon Boutte, NE, TE Darnell Washington, PIT, TE Luke Schoonmaker, DAL
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Tyson Bagent, CHI (Wk. 8: @LAC): Bagent acquitted himself well in his first NFL start, executing a conservative game plan well in an impressive victory over the Raiders. He completed over 70% of his passes, but his average throw traveled just 2 yards downfield, and he averaged a meager 5.6 yards per attempt. I’d expect a similar gameplan this week, but this is a great matchup for any QB. The Bears are 8.5-point underdogs this week, so Bagent likely won’t get away with throwing fewer than 30 passes again, and the Chargers have allowed the most QB fantasy points per game and rank 28th in pass defense DVOA. The ceiling here isn’t high even in this great matchup, but don’t be shocked if Bagent dinks and dunks his way to a low-end QB2 finish for the week. 5 out of the 6 QBs to face the Chargers this year have topped 20 fantasy points.
WR Jayden Reed, GB (Wk. 8: vs. Min.): Reed’s usage hasn’t quite been what we’d hope for since Christian Watson’s return to the lineup. Reed averaged 6.3 targets and 50 yards per game in the first 4 games of the year (including week 4 when Watson played limited snaps in his first game back), but he’s averaged just 3 targets and 14 yards in the two games since, and logged route participation rates below 60% in both games. That kind of workload means he’s probably not a starting option in most leagues, but he does get a decent matchup this week. The Vikings have allowed the 7th-most receiver points per game, and they’ve allowed the 8th-most receiving yards and 2nd-most yards after the catch to opposing slot receivers. When you pair that with Reed’s usage in scoring range (he’s got 6 of the team’s 14 targets within 10 yards of the end zone), there’s some sneaky upside here in deep leagues or in DFS lineups.
WR Demario Douglas, NE (Wk. 8: @Mia.): The return of JuJu Smith-Schuster from the concussion protocol is enough to prevent me from giving a full-throated endorsement of Douglas for this week, but at some point, the Patriots have got to realize what they have here. Douglas is consistently earning targets when he’s on the field (25% target per route run rate), and he leads the receiver group in yards per target and yards per route run. The Patriots just have to keep giving him routes. If he plays the same role he did last week (71% route participation rate) against a Miami defense that allows the 9th-most WR points per game, he’s a viable WR4/5 option. I don’t trust that will happen with JuJu back, but Douglas shouldn’t be sitting on the waiver wire in deeper leagues. He’s just 5% rostered on Sleeper.
WR Andrei Iosivas, CIN (Wk. 8: @SF): Iosivas isn’t an option for this week, but now would be a good time to scoop him off your league waiver wire in dynasty leagues if he’s still available. The Bengals are coming off a bye week, so most folks aren’t rushing to add the Bengals’ depth guys this week, but Iosivas has sneakily started to see his playing time increase, and he’s impressed in his limited opportunities. He was an un-thrown coach’s challenge flag away from a dazzling toe-tap catch in week 5 and followed that up with his first career TD in week 6 ahead of the bye week. He’s still only run 21 routes in the last two games, but it seems the Bengals may be grooming him to be the Tee Higgins replacement in 2024. He’s a much better perimeter option than Trenton Irwin, Tyler Boyd, or Charlie Jones, and he may have a few spike game opportunities this season given Higgins’ issues with staying on the field in recent seasons. Higgins has left games early with an injury 4 times since the start of last season and was inactive for another, and he’s currently battling a rib injury that he said may bother him all season. With that said, anything you get from Iosivas this year should be seen as a bonus. This is a dynasty stash with 2024 in mind.
TE Michael Mayer, LV (Wk. 8: @Det.): Mayer’s usage took a step backward last weekend after his breakout game in week 6. He’s still playing ahead of Austin Hooper as the Raiders’ lead tight end, but a 52% route participation rate isn’t what you’re looking for from a TE1. That doesn’t mean he can’t have a useful fantasy day in week 8. The Lions have allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends and have allowed 5 different tight ends to pull in at least 4 receptions against them. That overall points per game number is skewed a bit by the big game from Mark Andrews last weekend, but I’d still expect a handful of targets to go Mayer’s way. He’s a passable fill-in this week if you’re in a pinch at the position, and he could be a fun play in showdown DFS contests for Monday Night Football.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
