Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Hopefully you enjoyed the reprieve from bye weeks and had a fruitful week 8, but we’ve got 4 teams on byes in week 9 including some every-week fantasy starters, so you may be back to searching for some lineup replacement options. As usual I’m here to help you navigate which rookies are viable for your fantasy lineup, but this week has an especially interesting wrinkle.
This week it appears there are 7 rookie QBs slated to start for their teams. With only 28 teams in action, that’s a quarter of the signal callers league wide. With CJ Stroud and Bryce Young, we know what to expect, but for the other 5, we have to ask what kind of impact they’ll have on the players around them, and which ones should you consider if you’re searching for a QB2 option? I dive into all 7 rookie QBs that are expected to start this week (and touch on an 8th rookie QB just for fun), but there’s plenty more where that came from in this week’s report.
Can we count on any rookie running back not named Bijan Robinson this week? How big of an issue are the QB situations for Puka Nacua, Jordan Addison, Michael Wilson, and Michael Mayer? Is this the week Tank Dell gets back on track? Keep reading and find out.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Let’s get into week 9:
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (Wk. 9: vs. Min.): Bijan left some points on the field Sunday due to catching zero of the 5 targets that came his way, but he still had a respectable bounce-back after the headache fiasco in week 7, finding the end zone and finishing as the RB17 for the week. He was back to his usual role in the offense, and that’s a good sign moving forward. The matchup this week isn’t a great one, with the Vikings allowing the 6th-fewest RB points per game and ranking 12th in FTN’s run defense DVOA. Don’t let that scare you off. The Falcons are 4.5-point favorites with Minnesota starting rookie Jaren Hall at QB. There’s a chance Atlanta wins easily and can lean on the run game, and I wouldn’t count on Bijan catching zero passes again. Robinson has caught 4+ passes in 5 of the 7 full games he’s played. He may not be a slam dunk top-12 play this week, but at worst Bijan should be treated as a high-end RB2.
WR Zay Flowers, BAL (Wk. 9: vs. Sea.): Flowers posted his worst game of the season in week 8, finishing with just 5 catches for 19 yards on 7 targets, but the underlying usage was still strong. He was in a route on 94% of the team dropbacks and earned a 24% target share. He’s still been a top-30 PPR receiver in 5 of 8 games on the year and should be in line for a bounce back game against a Seattle defense that has allowed the 9th-most WR points per game. Week 8 was the first time Flowers was held below 50 scrimmage yards in a game this season. I don’t expect week 9 to be the 2nd. He’s a strong WR3 this week.
TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF (Wk. 9: @Cin.): This might sound like an overreaction to a small sample size, but the only tight ends I’d start over Kincaid this week are Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews. Part of the reason I say that is because he’s helped by the tight end landscape this week - Sam LaPorta, Evan Engram, and George Kittle are all on byes, and TJ Hockenson just lost Kirk Cousins – but Kincaid has a huge role in the offense with Dawson Knox out, and he faces a great matchup this week. Kincaid was in a route on 85% of the team passing dropbacks last week and has earned 15 total targets in the last two games, and this week he faces a Bengals’ defense that has allowed the most TE points per game. Mark Andrews and George Kittle both posted top-3 finishes against this defense, Tyler Higbee recorded a top-10 game against them, and all of Harrison Bryant, Zach Ertz, and Josh Whyle found the end zone against the Bengals. Kincaid is a high floor, high ceiling option this week. Double-digit PPR points feels like a slam dunk for the rookie in this one.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
QB CJ Stroud, HOU (Wk. 9: vs. TB): My fears about Stroud were realized last week. With the Texans favored and facing a defense that has been much worse against the run than against the pass, Stroud logged his fewest pass attempts of the season, throwing for just 140 yards and no TDs. He did score a rushing TD to salvage the day, but you were likely hoping for more than a QB23 finish for the week if you started him. This week’s matchup is a little more conducive to a better fantasy output for Stroud. The Bucs have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs and have given up an average of 309 passing yards per game in 3 games since their bye. Only Justin Fields and Derek Carr have fallen short of 250 passing yards against them for the year. This week there are a bunch of QBs who are out of action, and I like Stroud’s chances to get back up to around 35 pass attempts and get back up to a borderline top-12 finish. He’s a safe start in 2-QB formats, and at least a passable option in 1-QB leagues.
QB Bryce Young, CAR (Wk. 9: vs. Ind.): Young hasn’t exactly been setting the fantasy world ablaze this season, but his play has notably improved in the last 3 games. In the first 3 starts of the year, Bryce averaged 168 yards per game on 7.5 yards per completion and threw 2 TDs and 2 INTs. In the last 3 games, he’s averaged 233 yards per game on 10 yards per completion with 5 TDs and 2 INTs. The Panthers took some responsibility off Young’s plate and simplified the offense, and it’s working wonders for his performance. He could take another step forward this week against a Colts’ defense that has allowed the 4th-most QB points per game and ranks 21st in pass defense DVOA. Taysom Hill’s stats last week in a non-QB role skew the points allowed average a bit, but the Colts have still allowed 15+ fantasy points to 6 of the 8 actual QBs they’ve faced, and 17+ to 5 of them. 15+ points for Bryce Young would be his 2nd best game of the year, which is what I think he’ll post in this matchup. Young may be a top-15 QB option given some of the lackluster choices available for week 9.
WR Puka Nacua, LAR (Wk. 9: @GB): I list Nacua here on the borderline mostly because of the uncertain status of Matthew Stafford for this week. Nacua seemingly had his 2nd down game in the last 3 weeks with just 3 catches for 43 yards against Dallas, but he was targeted 6 times by Stafford in the first half of that game. After Stafford exited with a thumb injury, backup Brett Rypien targeted Puka just once in the second half. If Stafford is good to go this week, Nacua should still be a fine top-20 WR option against a Green Bay defense that ranks 27th in pass defense DVOA. If Brett Rypien gets the start or if Stafford will be seriously limited, Puka becomes a risky WR3. I’d still lean toward giving him the nod in your lineups with some notable receivers on byes, but know that there is extra downside here if Stafford is out.
WR Jordan Addison, MIN (Wk. 9: @Atl.): I don’t feel 100% confident in starting Addison with Jaren Hall under center, but he’s still the team WR1 facing a defense that ranks 28th in pass defense DVOA. Hall should be looking his way regularly, and he should manage to compile his way to a fantasy relevant performance. Addison might draw shadow coverage from AJ Terrell, but that didn’t work out great for Terrell last week against DeAndre Hopkins, and he doesn’t always get a shadow assignment. Addison has been targeted 8+ times in 3 of the last 4 games and found the end zone in all 4, and the Vikings shouldn’t shy away from him against a defense that is much better against the run than the pass. I’d treat Addison as a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 this week.
WR Josh Downs, IND (Wk. 9: @Car.): Downs is more of a floor play than a ceiling option, but that floor has been rock solid for more than a month now. Downs has averaged nearly 9 targets per game in Gardner Minshew’s 4 starts, and he’s tallied at least 13 PPR points in all 4 of those games and in 5 of his last 6 games overall. Most teams haven’t had to throw a ton against Carolina. The Panthers have allowed the 8th-fewest points per game to receivers, but they rank just a middling 14th in pass defense DVOA. Downs should be a solid PPR WR3 again this week, even in a matchup where passing volume could be lower.
WR Rashee Rice, KC (Wk. 9: vs. Mia.): Rice’s final stat line last week of 4-56 on 5 targets wasn’t a week-winning performance, but it’s another solid game stacked by the rookie receiver in a week where his QB wasn’t at his best. His route participation rate reached 60%+ for the 2nd week in a row, and he’s now reached 50 yards and/or scored a TD in 5 of his last 6 games. The Chiefs-Dolphins game has the highest Vegas point total of the week, so KC should be throwing plenty in a game with shootout potential. The Dolphins allow the 10th-most WR points per game and rank 17th in pass defense DVOA, and Pat Mahomes should look more like himself. I’m not sure I’d count on an earth-shattering performance from Rice, but another ho-hum WR3 game feels like a reasonable expectation in this matchup.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
QB Will Levis, TEN (Wk. 9: @Pit.): Levis put on quite a show in his NFL debut, racking up 4 TDs (3 of them on connections of more than 30 yards), and finishing as the QB6 for the week. He’s bound to be a hot waiver wire pickup in most leagues, but there’s a real possibility he comes crashing back to earth in week 9. On his throws that didn’t find the end zone, Levis was 15-for-25 for just 81 yards, and his two longest TD throws of the day were aided by an uncalled offensive pass interference and a blown coverage. Of course, a lot of QBs would have bad numbers if you took away their best plays. It’s promising that Levis is willing to uncork deep throws to his best receiver, and his TD toss to Nick Westbrook-Ikhine was unquestionably a dime. There was a lot to like, but this week’s matchup is significantly tougher. The Falcons ranked just 28th in pass defense DVOA. The Steelers rank 9th. Don’t count on another blow-up game from Levis, but he should be fine as a QB2 this week with limited QB options to choose from. The Steelers have allowed 220+ passing yards to every QB they’ve faced this year, and they’ll be without Minkah Fitzpatrick this week, so there’s still a nice floor for Levis, even if he doesn’t have the same ceiling.
RB Emari Demercado, ARI (Wk. 9: @Cle.): Demercado missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with a toe injury, so his status for this weekend is up in the air, but the sledding will not be easy if he’s able to play. Running back is the one position that has had a semblance of success against the Browns’ defense this year. Cleveland is allowing merely the 10th-fewest RB points per game this season compared to being in the top-5 vs the 3 other skill positions. They’ve shown some vulnerability on the ground since the bye, allowing decent rushing days to the 49ers, Colts, and Seahawks in the 3 games since, but they still rank 3rd in run defense DVOA, and the Cards aren’t quite as effective on the ground as those teams. This may be Demercado’s last chance to showcase what he can do before the return of James Conner, so he may have a bit of extra motivation, but the injury has me worried. Even if Demercado plays, we could see Keaontay Ingram and Damien Williams mix in more often. Arizona should lean on the run game with Clayton Tune in line to make his first start, and Demercado is at least worth consideration if you’re in a pinch but keep an eye on the injury report and make sure the toe won’t keep him sidelined. If you’re planning to start him and he misses practice again on Friday, I’d start making other plans.
RB Tyjae Spears, TEN (Wk. 9: @Pit.): It’s easy to look at advanced stats for Spears and get excited about him as a player – he ranks 2nd among all running backs in forced missed tackles per touch and is the highest-graded rookie running back for the season according to PFF - but at some point, the touches have to be there. Spears has logged 10+ touches just twice in 7 games (never more than 11 in a game), and while he’s explosive enough to turn those limited touches into a good game here and there, it’s hard for you to rely on him in fantasy. He’s cracked the top-30 PPR backs 4 times this season, and the top-10 once. The matchup this week isn’t a bad one. The Steelers have allowed the 8th-most points per game to opposing backs and rank 14th in run defense DVOA. The question is how much damage can Spears do against them on 8-10 touches? He has some appeal as a fringe RB3 (slightly higher than that in PPR), but the chances that he drastically outperforms that ranking are not good. He logged his 2nd-lowest snap share of the season in Levis’ first start at QB.
RB Zach Charbonnet, SEA (Wk. 9: @Bal.): Week 9 was a banner week for Charbonnet. It was the first time all season that he out-snapped Kenneth Walker III, and the first time all year that he finished as a top-30 PPR back. Pete Carroll rode the hot hand against the Browns, and Charbs had the hot hand. He ran twice as many routes as a receiver as Walker as well – just the 2nd time he’s run more routes than Walker all season. That usage is great to see, but it remains to be seen if it was just a blip, or if it will continue going forward. Even if he sees similar usage this week, the Ravens are a tough test. Baltimore has allowed the 15th-fewest RB points per game, which doesn’t sound too intimidating, but they also rank 5th in run defense DVOA. It’ll likely take at least 1 TD for Charbonnet to have a game where you’re happy you started him, and the Ravens have allowed just 3 RB scores for the season. Only 1 running back this year hit double-digit fantasy points against the Ravens without scoring a TD (Joe Mixon). You could start Charbonnet if you’re in a tight spot this week, but there’s not a lot of ceiling to chase.
RB Roschon Johnson, CHI (Wk. 9: @NO): Roschon finally returned from his concussion last weekend and led the Bears’ backfield in snaps, but he still found himself mired in a 3-way committee with D’Onta Foreman and Darrynton Evans. Johnson finished the game with 6.1 PPR points on 6 carries and 4 targets, and while I expect that role to grow going forward, the matchup this week is tougher and Khalil Herbert’s eventual return looms in the not-too-distant future. The matchup with the Saints is especially tough on Roschon. Johnson is the Bears’ back who is most active in the passing game, and the Saints rank 1st in pass defense DVOA on throws to opposing backs and have allowed the 4th-fewest RB points per game. The Saints haven’t allowed a running back to put up 25 or more receiving yards against them since week 2. I don’t expect Roschon’s share of the rushing work to increase enough this week to make him a viable RB3 in a tough matchup. I’d keep him sidelined in this one.
WR Tank Dell, HOU (Wk. 9: vs. TB): Dell’s breakout games in weeks 2 and 3 are starting to feel like distant objects in the rearview mirror at this point. The rookie tallied 20.2 and 25.5 PPR points in those two games and has totaled just 18.3 PPR points since. He did miss some time with injury, but that’s still 2 and a half games worth of production. This week seems like as good a week as any to get back on track. The Texans will be without Robert Woods, and Tampa Bay allows the 9th-most WR points per game, but Woods also missed last week’s game when Dell was out-targeted by Noah Brown. There’s still enough upside here to treat Dell as a WR4 this week, but be aware that he’s a volatile option.
WR Jayden Reed, GB (Wk. 9: vs. LAR): The Packers passing game has mostly been messy this season, with Jordan Love looking unlikely to be the long-term answer for the franchise at QB, but that hasn’t stopped Jayden Reed from putting up a 30+ yard catch and/or a TD in 6 out of 7 games this season. He’s quietly been the WR48 in points per game despite only earning 6+ targets 3 times, and there’s no reason he can’t finish right around that WR48 mark again this week. The Rams have only allowed the 9th-fewest WR points per game, but they also rank 22nd in pass defense DVOA. If the Packers are forced to throw the ball, Reed should have enough upside to warrant real WR4 consideration. That likely only happens if Matthew Stafford starts this game. If Stafford sits and it’s Brett Rypien under center, Green Bay may be able to play from in front and lean on the run game, which would limit Reed’s ceiling. Pay attention to Stafford’s status if you’re considering Reed in a lineup.
WRs Jaxon Smith-Njigba & Jake Bobo, SEA (Wk. 9: @Bal.): JSN scored a TD for the second week in a row last Sunday against the Browns, but his playing time and usage took a hit with the return of DK Metcalf. Smith-Njigba logged his lowest route participation rate since week 3 (64%), and more concerning was his aDOT of less than half a yard. He’s had an aDOT below 6 yards in 5 games this season and averaged just under 20 yards per game in those contests. In the 2 games where his aDOT has been higher than 6 yards, he's averaged just over 55 yards per game. The combination of fewer routes and shorter targets is bad news when you’re facing a defense that ranks 1st in pass defense DVOA and allows the 5th-fewest WR points per game. Jake Bobo scored a TD as well last weekend, but his route participation rate was back under 30% with Metcalf back. He may have a splash week every now and then, but he’s not on the field enough to trust in lineups, especially against such a tough defense.
WR Michael Wilson, ARI (Wk. 9: @Cle.): Wilson posted his 5th game of 50+ yards of the season last Sunday against the Ravens, but Arizona’s QB switch this week could be a speed bump for the rookie, assuming he’s even on the field. Like teammate Emari Demercado, Wilson missed practice on both Wednesday and Thursday and might not be able to suit up on Sunday. He’d built a decent rapport with Joshua Dobbs, but the Cardinals seem ready to hand the keys to Clayton Tune this week in an unforgiving matchup with the Browns. Cleveland has allowed the 4th-fewest WR points per game, and Wilson has reached 11+ PPR points just once all season. Wilson hasn’t shown a high ceiling, and if he plays the downside in this matchup is just too great to trust Wilson with a rookie QB making his first start.
WR Jalin Hyatt, NYG (Wk. 9: @LV): Daniel Jones’ return to the lineup makes Hyatt a bit too risky to trust this week. Jones has nearly twice as many pass attempts as Tyrod Taylor this season, but 64% of Hyatt’s targets this season have come from Tyrod. His role had taken a big step forward in Taylor’s two starts, and it remains to be seen if that increased usage will continue with Jones back at QB. The Raiders allow the 6th-fewest WR points per game, and they rank 13th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws. The less-than-ideal matchup and questionable role with Jones back means this is not a spot where I’d want to use Hyatt.
WR Quentin Johnston, LAC (Wk. 9: @NYJ): Johnston posted his best game of the season last week against the Bears, setting season highs in targets (6), receptions (5), and receiving yards (50), but I wouldn’t count on a repeat performance this week against the Jets. Only 3 receivers this season have caught for more than 50 yards or tallied 10+ fantasy points against the Jets – Stefon Diggs, AJ Brown, and CeeDee Lamb. If you think Johnston should be mentioned in the same breath as those guys, then feel free to take your chances. I’m not sure he’s a top-50 option this week.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
QB Tyson Bagent, CHI (Wk. 9: @NO): Bagent has made two starts so far this season. He finished those games as QB21 and QB22 despite facing two abysmal defenses in the Raiders and Chargers. The Chargers allowed 21+ fantasy points to 5 of the first 6 QBs they faced, but Bagent managed just 13.2 fantasy points against them and threw 2 interceptions last weekend. If Bagent has been finishing as a fringe QB2 in plus matchups, what’s he going to do against a good defense this weekend? The Saints have allowed the 6th-fewest QB points per game and rank 8th in pass defense DVOA. I have zero faith that Bagent will get back on track in a tougher matchup this week. I’d view him as a bottom-2 QB option among the 28 guys starting in week 9.
QB Clayton Tune, ARI (Wk. 9: @Cle.): It was a surprise this week when the Cardinals announced immediately after their loss to the Ravens that Joshua Dobbs would start in week 9, and then reversed course just a day later and said that they weren’t sure who would start, but that Dobbs was benched, and it wouldn’t be him. The confusion was cleared up on Tuesday when the Cards dealt Dobbs to the Minnesota Vikings. With Kyler Murray close to a return, the Cardinals were smart to get draft capital back for Dobbs, but Murray likely won’t be quite ready to start this weekend. That means Tune will get thrown to the wolves against Myles Garrett and the Browns’ defense. Cleveland ranks 2nd in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 5th-fewest QB points per game, allowing less than a dozen points to 4 of the 7 QBs they’ve faced this year. Tune is a gamer, but I wouldn’t expect any heroics in this brutal matchup. The Cardinals have a Vegas implied point total of just 14.75 points, one of the lowest totals for any team this season. There are 28 starting QBs this week, and I’d rank Tune in the bottom-2 of all of them along with Tyson Bagent.
QB Tommy DeVito, NYG (Wk. 9: @LV): Daniel Jones is reportedly going to be able to return this week and start against the Raiders, but if for some reason those reports are wrong, DeVito shouldn’t be anywhere near your starting lineups. Here’s a quick recap of DeVito’s NFL action last weekend: He entered the game late in the first half after Tyrod Taylor was injured. Brian Daboll called 7 dropbacks in his first 10 plays as the Giants tried to get points before the half. Those dropbacks resulted in 2 scrambles for 8 yards, 2 sacks, and 3 incompletions. In the 2nd half, Daboll called 34 designed run plays and just 2 pass plays. He finally let DeVito throw again in overtime, and the results were 2 completions on 3 attempts for negative-1 yard. The Jets are a very good defense, and the weather was bad, but it’s very difficult to play QB for more than half of a football game and throw for negative passing yards (DeVito’s total passing line was 2-for-7 for negative-1 yard). It was clear that the Giants didn’t trust DeVito to throw the ball, and if they’re forced to start him again this week, you shouldn’t trust him either. If stuck without a QB2 in a superflex league, I would start a running back, receiver, or tight end rather than roll with DeVito.
RB Kendre Miller, NO (Wk. 9: vs. Chi.): The Saints talked about getting Miller and Jamaal Williams more involved after Alvin Kamara played virtually all the snaps against the Jaguars in week 7, and for Miller that meant 3 carries and 1 target in week 8. The Bears have been one of the stingiest run defenses in the league in recent weeks, allowing just 152 running back rushing yards on 62 carries in their last 4 games (2.45 yards per carry). Miller’s limited role against that defense isn’t worth consideration in fantasy lineups.
WR Trey Palmer, TB (Wk. 9: @Hou.): Palmer led the Bucs in routes run in week 8 and reached 6+ targets for the 2nd time in the last 3 games. He still finished with just 22 receiving yards and has only exceeded 25 in a game once all year. This week the Bucs face a Houston defense that has allowed the 3rd-fewest WR points per game, and Baker Mayfield should make a concerted effort to get the ball to Mike Evans this week after the star receiver was shut down until late in last week’s game with the Bills. Don’t look for more than 5-6 PPR points out of Palmer this week unless he finds the end zone.
WR Tyler Scott, CHI (Wk. 9: @NO): Scott has been more involved in the offense since Tyson Bagent stepped in at QB, but that’s meant 10 total targets and 42 receiving yards in the last 3 weeks. There’s just not much upside here against a New Orleans defense that ranks 8th in pass defense DVOA.
WR Tre Tucker, LV (Wk. 9: vs. NYG): Tucker pulled in multiple receptions in weeks 6 & 7, but then took a backseat to Hunter Renfrow in week 8. The Raiders’ passing game was a dumpster fire on Monday night, with just 4 completions to a receiver all game, and I’m not sure that firing the coaches and benching Jimmy Garoppolo for a 4th-round rookie is the thing that fixes it. Even if things improve this week for the Raiders, the re-emergence of Renfrow makes Tucker a non-factor for now.
WR Andrei Iosivas, CIN (Wk. 9: vs. Buf.): Iosivas found the end zone for the second consecutive game last weekend, but he’s run just 9 routes and been targeted twice in those games. He’s not someone you can rely on without injuries to Higgins or Chase at the top of the depth chart.
WR Kayshon Boutte, NE (Wk. 9: vs. Was.): You could throw a speculative dart throw at Boutte if you’d like to in deeper dynasty leagues after teammate Kendrick Bourne suffered a torn ACL last Sunday, but realistically there’s no guarantee that it means playing time is coming for Boutte. He may still be 6th on the WR depth chart behind DeVante Parker, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pop Douglas, Jalen Reagor, and Tyquan Thornton. I’d suggest letting someone else waste the roster spot for now.
TE Michael Mayer, LV (Wk. 9: vs. NYG): Mayer’s routes continued to climb in week 8. He’s now seemingly completed his takeover of the starting tight end job after logging a 79% route participation rate on Monday night, but that resulted in just 1 catch for 19 yards on 2 targets. Of course, that could change this week, but the switch to Aidan O’Connell at QB doesn’t bode well for the tight ends if his previous playing time is any indication. O’Connell has attempted 52 passes this season, and just 3 of them have targeted a tight end (all of them to Austin Hooper). Mayer logged a 30% route participation rate in O’Connell’s lone start this year and wasn’t targeted. This week’s opponent, the Giants, have allowed the 8th-fewest TE points per game and have allowed just one tight end in the last 3 weeks to reach 20 yards against them. Mayer’s full-time role means he could put up a top-12 performance, but the evidence we have suggests that it’s pretty unlikely. I’d view him as a borderline top-20 TE for the week.
Rookies on byes in Week 9: RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET, RB Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN, RB Tank Bigsby, JAX, WR Marvin Mims Jr., DEN, WR Ronnie Brown, SF, TE Sam LaPorta, DET, TE Brenton Strange, JAX
Rookies to sit who are injured or have had very limited or non-existent roles: RBs De’Von Achane & Christopher Brooks, MIA, RB Chase Brown, CIN, RB Deuce Vaughn, DAL, RB Eric Gray, NYG, RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS, RB Elijah Dotson, LAC, RB Israel Abanikanda, NYJ, WR Dontayvion Wicks, GB, WR Rakim Jarrett, TB, WR Derius Davis, LAC, WR Xavier Hutchinson, HOU, TE Darnell Washington, PIT, TE Luke Schoonmaker, DAL, TE Payne Durham, TB
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Jaren Hall, MIN (Wk. 9: @Atl.): Hall will get thrown into the fire this weekend with Kirk Cousins done for the year, Nick Mullens still on IR, and newly acquired Josh Dobbs not up to speed yet, but the rookie gets a somewhat soft landing spot in Atlanta. The Falcons are fresh off being shredded by another rookie QB (Will Levis), and they rank 28th in pass defense DVOA and have given up 14+ fantasy points to each of the last 7 QBs they’ve faced. Hall has weapons in Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson, and KJ Osborn, and didn’t look overwhelmed when forced into duty to close out the win over the Packers last week. I would be surprised if he posts a top-12 finish for the week, but top-20 is certainly a reasonable hope. I’d prefer Hall over fellow rookie starters Tyson Bagent and Clayton Tune if you’re in a pinch, and I don’t think there’s any guarantee that Mullens or Dobbs will take this job from him when they’re ready if he plays well.
QB Aidan O’Connell, LV (Wk. 8: vs. NYG): Of all the rookie starters being thrust into duty this week, O’Connell is the one with the longest guaranteed runway as a starter. Clayton Tune is just keeping the spot warm for Kyler Murray. Jaren Hall might be replaced by Nick Mullens or Josh Dobbs as soon as week 10. Tyson Bagent is starting until Justin Fields is healthy. Will Levis might keep the job once Tannehill is ready to return, but we don’t know that yet. But O’Connell’s situation is different. He’s been named the starter going forward, which means he’s definitely worth a pickup in 2-QB leagues even if I don’t have a ton of faith in him this week. The Giants’ defense has been playing better than you might think in recent weeks. They now rank 16th in pass defense DVOA and have only allowed 1 QB in their last 5 games to score 15+ fantasy points against them. They’ve also forced 6 QB turnovers in the last 4 games. O’Connell has turned the ball over 4 times in about 5 quarters of NFL action, so don’t be surprised if he’s responsible for multiple turnovers this week. On the plus side, AOC was at least good for Raiders two best players in his first start, doling out 63% of his targets to Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs. I’d treat O’Connell as a fringe QB2 this week, but the Raiders’ pass catching weapons are talented enough that he could emerge as a reliable QB2 in the back half of the season.
WR Demario Douglas, NE (Wk. 9: vs. Was.): Douglas has quietly worked his way up a shaky Patriots’ WR depth chart and might now find himself at the top of it after Kendrick Bourne suffered a torn ACL last weekend. Douglas led the team in week 8 with an 84% route participation rate, and he’s earned 13 targets in the last two weeks. That hasn’t resulted in crooked fantasy point totals in the Pats’ lackluster passing game (he’s totaled 19.3 PPR points in the last two weeks), but he gets an extremely favorable matchup this week and could be in line for a spike week. The Commanders rank 30th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed at least one WR to catch for 75+ yards in each of their last 7 games (100+ yards in 6 of those games). We don’t know what the WR usage is going to look like without Kendrick Bourne, but one thing I feel pretty confident about is that Douglas is the only WR that the coaching staff fully trusts right now. He’s going to continue to run a route on 80%+ of the passing dropbacks, and he’s consistently drawn targets this year when he’s on the field. I’d view it as a disappointing week if he doesn’t see 7+ targets against the Commanders on Sunday. If anyone in this offense is going to hit that 75-yard mark against Washington Sunday, it’s Douglas. I’d view him as a WR4 with upside in this juicy matchup, even in spite of the Pats’ struggles throwing the ball.
WR Jonathan Mingo, CAR (Wk. 9: vs. Ind.): Mingo’s full-time role hasn’t translated to fantasy production yet in his young career, but he’s got sneaky upside this week against the Colts. Bryce Young’s play has been improving steadily, raising the floor for all the Panthers’ pass catchers. Adam Thielen has continued to dominate targets for the Panthers, but there are a couple signs that point to this being a potential spike week for Mingo. For starters, the Colts play the least amount of man coverage in the league. Thielen has been targeted on a whopping 34% of his routes against man coverage, but that number slips to just 21% against zone. The Colts also rank 30th in the league in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing #2 receiver. Mingo is coming off his best fantasy game of the season (4 catches for 62 yards), and in this matchup, I wouldn’t be surprised if he duplicates it. That still makes him just a WR4 option, even with a handful of byes this week, but he should easily hit the over on his receiving props for this weekend.
WR Cedric Tillman, CLE (Wk. 9: vs. Ari.): The Browns traded Donovan Peoples-Jones to the Lions at the trade deadline this week, opening up quite a bit of playing time in their offense. DPJ had logged a 78% route participation rate for the season prior to the trade, and the Browns have 3 internal candidates to step up and take that playing time. Those candidates are Marquise Goodwin, David Bell, and Cedric Tillman. Goodwin would probably be the one who could best duplicate the specific role Peoples-Jones was playing, running clear-out routes to create space for Amari Cooper and Elijah Moore, but Tillman is the most well rounded of the group. If the Browns want to put the best receiver on the field, Tillman will get the biggest jump in playing time. It’s likely that all 3 players see more snaps in the near term, but I’d bet on Tillman’s talent eventually winning out, and the rookie being a meaningful part of this offense when the fantasy playoffs roll around. He’s worth considering as a stash in deep redraft leagues, and certainly shouldn’t be on the wire in dynasty leagues. If he’s available in yours, you should rectify that.
TE Luke Musgrave, GB (Wk. 9: vs. LAR): Musgrave’s usage hasn’t been great since his return from his week 4 concussion. He’s averaged a reasonable 5 targets per game, but his average target depth has plummeted. The Packers have been throwing to him just 2.7 yards downfield in the last 3 games, and he’s averaged less than 5 yards per target in those games (compared to 8.3 ypt in the first 3 games of the season when he was targeted further downfield). This week’s matchup with the Rams could be a prime opportunity for Musgrave to get back on track. The Rams have allowed the 4th-most tight end points per game for the year, and in the past 5 games they’ve coughed up 4 tight end scores and allowed 4 different tight ends to hit 40+ receiving yards. No team in the league has allowed more yards per target to tight ends than the Rams. I wouldn’t treat Musgrave as a top-12 tight end this week. The Packers’ passing game has struggled too much to have that kind of confidence in him, but there’s more upside than usual if you’re digging deep for a starter or are looking for a cheap option in DFS.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
