Are you looking for a vote of confidence when picking game scores, spreads and over/unders? Let me be that football wizard who has seen the prophecies of victory and has the ability to put your wagering soul at ease. In this column, I'll go over each match up and point out why I'm leaning a certain direction as well as predicting the point total. I will also tell you who I'd pick when it comes to point spreads and over/unders.
Wagering tip of the week: I'm sure you've heard of prop bets. Props are bets that involve multiple forms of action regarding a single game. Everything from betting on a star player's yardage total and if they score a TD, to how many FGs are kicked by a team and the margin of victory. Props are plentiful and if chosen right, can get you some quick cash. For instance, they have props for who will score the first TD in a game. The list usually consist of star players but QBs only count if they have a rushing/receiving TD, not a TD pass. Anyway, make 4-5 wagers based on the top 4-5 players you think will score that 1st TD of the game. If you put $20 on each wager, you are almost guaranteed a profit if one of your guys scores first. Even though you would lose the other bets, the net you will make on your winning ticket will still put you ahead. Another good one is margin of victory. If you are confident a team is going to win by 7-10 pts., make a wager for a 1-7 pt. margin of victory and an 8-14 pt. margin of victory. You will only win one of these bets(your team still has to win by 14 or less), but you will still net a profit. Take advantage of these 'can't lose' wagers and when betting on player production, always check their past weekly stats to get a proper gauge when assessing betting odds. Sometimes I make as many as 15-20 wagers in a particular game. You're looking good even if you only hit half of them. Another great thing about props bets are the fact you can wager on the game without predicting a winner, spread or total score. If you haven't already, give prop bets a try!
WEEK 7 PICKS:
CHICAGO BEARS 23 @ GREEN BAY PACKERS 31 - The reasons I have this game closer than it normally would be, is because Eddie Lacy's injury has the Packer's backfield in a current state of flux. Additionally, their banged up secondary aren't helping things out on the defensive side of the ball either. Tread with caution on the spread, though I'd take the Packers and go with the over. Low confidence points on this close division match up.
NEW YORK GIANTS 30 @ LOS ANGELES RAMS 20 - Game #2 played in London this year. Even though the Giants are the away team, Odell Beckham Jr. is an international star and New York should appear to be defending home turf based on crowd response. I'd go with the Giants and the spread and definitely take the low over. Use caution with confidence points.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 27 @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 30 - The Saints have an explosive offense but their sad defense has trouble keeping them in games. The Chiefs have enough of a balanced attack to go back and forth with New Orleans and end up with a victory. It will be a close game, but take the Saints and the points while taking the over with caution. Low to mid confidence points.
BUFFALO BILLS 28 @ MIAMI DOLPHINS 20 - I would pick a higher margin of victory for Buffalo if LeSean McCoy didn't leave practice on Wednesday with a hamstring tweak. The Bills did officially remove themselves from my list of 'Jekyll & Hyde' teams after last weekend's decisive win. The Dolphins are hit or miss and are a team not to be totally discounted. I'd lean towards Buffalo and the spread while staying away from the over/under. Medium pool points on this one.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 30 @ TENNESSEE TITANS 27 - I'm picking the Colts to pull off the upset in this one. They almost got past a tough Texans' defense on the road last week and Indy's offense scores above average points. I guess when your defense is hit or miss, you'll be playing from behind quite often. I think both defenses will let a lot of points be scored and in the end, Andrew Luck and the Colts will come out the victors in this up for grabs division game. Take Indy and the points and go for the over. Very low pool points.
CLEVELAND BROWNS 16 @ CINCINNATI BENGALS 30 - Browns vs. Bengals. It doesn't get any more exciting than this. Not! Cleveland won't be able to muster up much and Cincinnati has too many weapons for the Browns to handle. The spread is high, so cautiously take the Bengals and the over. Definitely go high relating to confidence pools.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS 27 @ DETROIT LIONS 34 - Detroit has a shaky defense but their offense will outscore that of Washington's. This game will come down to big plays and I think in the end, the Lions have too many scoring options for the Redskins to handle. I'd safely take Detroit and the spread while picking the over. Low to mid confidence points.
OAKLAND RAIDERS 27 @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 30 - This is one of those games that you don't want to lay a lot of bread on. The Raiders have an atrocious defense and a high powered offense. The Jaguars can't be figured out. The potential is there but not the consistency. Anyway, if I had to bet, I would take Jax and the spread and go with the over. Very low pool points.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS 27 @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 16 - Fresh off their bi-week, the Vikings will be looking to conquer Philadelphia. The supremacy of Minnesota's defense has the league talking and while the Eagles have a good D themselves, both offenses are too evenly matched leaving the Vikings with the overall team advantage. Take Minnesota and the spread while staying away from the over/under. Medium confidence points.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 27 @ ATLANTA FALCONS 34 - Two high powered offenses against two much to be desired defenses. A lot of points will be scored so take the over. Since I can never trust Atlanta, and you shouldn't as well, stay away from the spread. Low on the pool points.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 20 @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ers 27 - San Fran will get the monkey off their back and get a win this week against a very suspect Tampa Bay team. Grab the Niners and the spread, take the over and put low to mid confidence on this game of scrubs.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 30 @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS 20 - Big Ben. Hurt again. What would of been a great match up is basically going to turn into a one-sided Tom Brady fest. Sure, the Steelers will score points, but not enough from Landry Jones to compete with the Patriots. Safely take New England and the spread and don't be afraid of the over. Mid to high confidence points.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 24 @ ARIZONA CARDINALS 27 - A tough divisional match up including two of the NFC's best defenses. Points will be scored but I don't think it'll get out of hand on either side. Good running on both sides and a slight advantage in the passing game for the Cardinals. Take Arizona and the spread while taking the low over. Put very low pool points on this one.
HOUSTON TEXANS 20 @ DENVER BRONCOS 23 - Another game with two very tough defenses. Both teams have QBs with limited experience at the helm as well. Home field advantage will decide this one. I would take Houston and the points while taking the low over.
