Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It's finally Draft Day! In just a few hours, we'll be able to start seeing where the top prospects are actually going to start their pro careers. So...that means I still have a few more hours for some wishful thinking about landing spots. I tackled the QB and RB positions yesterday, and today I dive into what my favorite landing spots are for the WRs. Mind you, these landing spots ARE NOT predictions for where the players will be drafted. They're merely my thoughts on what the best landing spots are for all of the receives to maximize scheme fit, career development, and fantasy upside. It's likely that there will be at least one team that drafts multiple wide receivers, but for this exercise, I have every receiver listed going somewhere different. Let's dive in...
(Player, college - landing spot)
Calvin Ridley, Alabama - Carolina Panthers: Ridley didn't test well athletically at the combine, but he has the technical skill to get separation and was a consistent playmaker at Bama. In 2017 he pulled in nearly 31% of all of the receptions and more than 35% of the receiving yards put up by Alabama players. He also had a catch rate that was more than 10% higher than the average of the rest of the Bama receivers. The Panthers' offense helps create space for receivers since the defense always has to account for the chance that Cam runs the ball, and that will enhance Ridley's already impressive ability to get open. The Panthers lack a true number 1 receiver, and Ridley has the ability to become that guy if selected.
DJ Moore, Maryland - Dallas Cowboys: Moore is my favorite receiver in this class, his game pairs very well with Dak Prescott, and the Cowboys have a glaring need at WR after dumping Dez Bryant. While a lot of people are tempted to project a big, physical receiver here to replace what they lose in Dez, I think they'd be better served to draft a technician who wins in the short and intermediate areas of the field and after the catch. Moore is the best player in this draft who fits that description. Dak is best suited to a precision west coast passing game that can keep him in rhythm, and Dez just isn't a good fit for it. This is evidenced by the fact that Bryant had a catch rate below 53% in each of his two seasons with Prescott at QB. He had a catch rate above 60% in 4 out of 5 seasons with Romo under center (I don't count 2015 where Romo played just 3 games with Dez). DJ Moore would help the Cowboys' offense be more consistent than a player more similar to Dez would.
Courtland Sutton, SMU - Green Bay Packers: There has been a ton of hype around Sutton throughout draft season, but he's not as much of a finished product as that hype would have you believe. One thing he does have that not many of the receivers in this class do is true WR1 upside, and Green Bay playing with Aaron Rodgers is a place where I like his chances to make good on that. The Packers moved on from Jordy Nelson this offseason, and will undoubtedly be looking for a wide receiver within the first 2-3 rounds of this draft. Considering how valuable Jordy has been to the Packers over the years, they should look for the player with the most possible upside to replace him rather than a guy who will step in and contribute immediately. Sutton might be actually be both of those guys, but if he isn't ready to be a starter day 1, the Packers have a capable placeholder in Geronimo Allison.
James Washington, Oklahoma State - Arizona Cardinals: If you read my QB landing spots article, you already know I like Mason Rudolph to land in Arizona, so it's only fitting that I would like his favorite college receiver to join him. Washington has a ton of skill as a deep threat that can help offset the loss of John Brown to Baltimore, and if Rudolph lands there I'd expect Mike McCoy to install more of a vertical passing offense that Washington can thrive in. He's not just a one-trick pony though. James certainly has skills that will translate to the short and intermediate areas as well. He earned a black belt in karate when he was younger, which will help him with discipline, precision of movement, and understanding leverage. The Cardinals' receiving depth chart is very unsettled outside of Larry Fitzgerald, and I'd expect Washington to contribute immediately if he ends up in the desert.
Anthony Miller, Memphis - San Francisco 49ers: Miller is a bit of a tweener who could wind up in the slot or on the perimeter as a pro, but I think he would be best served starting his career in the slot. San Francisco is looking to upgrade their receiving unit now that they've found their franchise QB, and Miller is an explosive athlete who would be a good fit in their scheme. He would likely start in the slot with Pierre Garcon and Marquise Goodwin on the outside in 3-wide sets, but he could eventually develop into the replacement for soon-to-be 32 year-old Garcon in a couple years.
Deon Cain, Clemson - Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens have been very active in free agency in attempts to upgrade their wide receiver group. They've already signed John Brown, Michael Crabtree and Willie Snead, but they also showed they aren't content yet by offering a multiple year deal to Dez Bryant (that he rejected). Brown has battled a sickle-cell condition that has limited his ability to stay on the field after a promising start to his career, and Willie Snead was suspended 3 games last year due to a DUI charge and struggled to get his footing after returning. It's not far-fetched that Cain could vault into the WR2 role early in his rookie year. Cain fits the size/speed prototype for a perimeter receiver, and has ability in the vertical passing game that would pair well with Flacco's strong arm.
Christian Kirk, Texas A&M - Miami Dolphins: This pairing just makes too much sense to avoid it. Kirk is probably the best wide receiver in this draft that projects as strictly a slot receiver in the NFL, and the Dolphins just traded away their slot receiver who was the focal point of their passing game. Kirk can fill the same role at nearly the same level for a fraction of what the Browns just paid Jarvis Landry. If he lands in Miami, Kirk has 75+ reception upside as a rookie.
Dante Pettis, Washington - New England Patriots: Pettis lacks elite size and athleticism for a perimeter receiver, but he does just about everything well. He has great skill as a route runner, great hands, and is an excellent jump-ball receiver downfield as well. He was one of the best punt returners in the country last year, and he uses those skills effectively to gain yards after the catch also. The Patriots always seem to do a good job of finding bargains at the skill positions, and Pettis would certainly qualify as a guy who is expected to be drafted after the 3rd round of the NFL Draft. The depth chart might be a little crowded early on with the addition of Jordan Matthews and the returns of Julian Edelman and Malcolm Mitchell, but none of the roles are settled outside of Chris Hogan's. At the very least, Pettis would get on the field as a punt returner as a rookie, and would work his way up the depth chart from there. He could be a long-term starter.
DJ Chark, LSU - Philadelphia Eagles: Chark ran the best 40 time in this receiver class at 4.34, and can be used as a speedy deep threat while the rest of his game develops. The Eagles' offense takes plenty of deep shots, and traded starting WR Torrey Smith away this offseason. He wasn't heavily targeted last year, but there were some deep throws that went Smith's way. DJ would have a chance to compete with Mack Hollins and Mike Wallace for the role, but I expect Wallace to win that position battle. I like this landing spot more for Chark's development. Wallace signed for just one year, so if Chark is able to make strides in his game, he could step into the high upside starting role in year 2.
Michael Gallup, Colorado State - Indianapolis Colts: Gallup was prolific in his two years at Colorado State, averaging 88-1,345-10.5. He lacks the top end speed to develop into a number 1 receiver in the NFL, but he has the skills to develop into a solid WR2 as a possession receiver and would complement TY Hilton really well. He could quickly become one of Andrew Luck's favorite targets (assuming Luck ever returns).
Marcell Ateman, Oklahoma State - Denver Broncos: Ateman is a big receiver who tries to win with his physicality rather than technique. He's going to need to develop that technique a bit to succeed at the NFL level, and Denver would be a great place for him to sit and learn early on. The Broncos will need to get younger at WR soon with Demaryius at 30 and Manny Sanders at 31 years old, and DT would be a great mentor to help Ateman learn some of the nuance of the position. He has tantalizing upside if he's willing to put in the work to realize it.
Equanimeous St. Brown, Notre Dame - Oakland Raiders: St. Brown has gotten plenty of hype due to his dimensions and athleticism, but he has a lot of work to do on his game. Jon Gruden is an old school coach who will love the measurables ESB offers. If he lands in Oakland, St. Brown should get some usage as a red zone threat early on. The Raiders currently don't have a receiver taller than 6'2" on the roster, and St. Brown is 6'5". There's also an opportunity to progress into a starting role in the next couple years if he's able to develop his game since Jordy Nelson is going to be 33 years old this season.
DaeSean Hamilton, Penn State - Tennessee Titans: A lot of draft twitter would be up in arms if this happens since they love Taywan Taylor, but Hamilton might be able to step in as the slot receiver right away in Tennessee. His game profiles similarly to that of Cooper Kupp, and the Titans' new offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur held the same role with the Rams last year where Kupp was his slot receiver. The job wouldn't be handed to him though. Taywan was impressive when he got opportunities last year and Hamilton will have to beat him out to contribute much as a rookie. With that said, Hamilton has the talent to grow into the number two role opposite Corey Davis if the Titans choose not to re-sign Rishard Matthews at year's end.
Keke Coutee, Texas Tech - Buffalo Bills: I'm not sure that Coutee is necessarily a scheme fit in Buffalo but he has the ability to take the top off a defense, which is something that Buffalo's WR group could definitely use. He's skilled enough that he could develop into an outside receiver despite his diminuitive 5'10" height. Receiver is definitely a position of need for Buffalo after Zay Jones' offseason arrest and Jordan Matthews' departure to New England. Number 1 receiver Kelvin Benjamin is also coming off a season-ending injury. Injecting an exciting playmaker like Coutee into the offense would certainly help.
Richie James, Middle Tennessee State - Seattle Seahawks: James is an undersized 'tweener' who could find a fit in the slot or as a perimeter receiver, but that's an archetype that the Seahawks know pretty well. Both Tyler Lockett and Doug Baldwin also fit that mold. Adding James to 3-wide sets could make the Seahawks receivers interchangable and allow them to be more unpredictable as an offense. James is a skilled receiver who is dangerous in the open field, and Russell Wilson's improvisational skills behind the line create holes in the secondary where a player like James can make splash plays. There is a little bit of Antonio Brown to his game, and he could eventually become the top pass catcher in Seattle if they choose not to pay Doug Baldwin again when his contract is up in a few years.
Jordan Lasley, UCLA - Chicago Bears: Lasley struggled with some drops and maturity issues in college, but he has the game to be the long-term WR2 opposite Allen Robinson if he has those issues under control. It's no guarantee that Kevin White will ever stay healthy or regain the form he had before the injuries, and the Bears need to make other plans. Lasley is adept in the vertical game, but also has some shorter routes that he can win with in his repertoire. New head coach Matt Nagy's offense was explosive in KC last year, and adding playmakers like Lasley who fit it has been a priority this offseason for the Bears.
Allen Lazard, Iowa State - Atlanta Falcons: Lazard projects as a big slot receiver at the NFL level (or possibly even tight end), and the Falcons' slot receiver Taylor Gabriel left for Chicago this offseason. Gabriel and Lazard are very different players, and Lazard wouldn't be a great fit in the scheme that Shanahan used to run in Atlanta, but after a down year offensively in 2017 I expect Sarkisian to change things up a bit this year. The biggest benefit Lazard would provide is that he would help draw coverage away from Julio Jones in the red zone. With his 6'5" frame, you have to account for him in close, which should give Jones more room to operate. Lazard might develop into a fantasy asset down the road, but he would immediately be a boost to Atlanta's red zone offense.
J'Mon Moore, Missouri - Washington Redskins: Moore has the ideal size to play on the outside, where Washington is still a little unsettled. Jamison Crowder should be locked into the slot role, but Josh Doctson still hasn't made good on his potential and free agent acquisition Paul Richardson needs to show that he can continue to build on what he did last year in Seatte. Moore lacks deep speed and will be at his best working in the short and intermediate areas of the field. That should pair well with new QB Alex Smith, who is normally too risk averse to take shots downfield. Smith made strides as a deep thrower last year, but I'm not convinced that will continue as he transitions to a new offense and loses the playmaking speed of Tyreek Hill.
Daurice Fountain, Northern Iowa - Minnesota Vikings: Fountain is a raw athlete making the jump from FCS to the NFL. He's going to have to refine his technique as a receiver to make an impact at the NFL level, and where better for him to do that than Minnesota where they already have two receivers who are very technically sound? If he is able to develop as a receiver, he should be able to push Kendall Wright to the bench in 3-wide sets by year two. If Laquon Treadwell makes strides this year it would be more of an uphill climb for Fountain, but I'll believe it when I see it with Treadwell.
Byron Pringle, Kansas State - New York Giants: The Giants have a hole at WR for their 3-wide sets with Brandon Marshall being released, and I'm not sure Roger Lewis is the guy to fill it. Pringle is old for a prospect and had trouble with the law when he was younger, but he's had 4 or 5 years on the straight and narrow since. He runs crisp routes, has dynamic ability with the ball in his hands, and has good athleticism for an NFL WR. He also can be had with a day 3 pick, which will allow the Giants to fill some other holes before picking him.
That's all I've got for the wide receivers. There are so many players so close in skill level in this class that this was easily the toughest position to match players to teams. There is bound to be a lot of disagreement out there, so if you want to shout your disagreements at me feel free to reach out on twitter to do so (@Shawn_Foss). Also, go back and check out the QB and RB landing spot articles if you haven't already done so, and keep an eye out for the TE article later today. Enjoy the draft!
