Week 1 is upon us and like many of you, my work week is going to suffer, and I have no plans on coming into the office on Friday. After doing player profiles and random articles for drinkfive over the last few years I wanted to change things up a bit and do a weekly post on key situations each week. We will look at three different matchups and their fantasy implications. I will also make a prediction. Hopefully we can find a dark horse or two to ride into the championship.
Alfred Morris/Matt Breida vs Vikings Defense
With Jerick McKinnon going down with a torn ACL, the door is open for a potential RB2 in a revamped San Francisco offense. Since news broke, owners quickly moved to claim either Morris or Breida. Neither is going to produce the way McKinnon was expected to, but there is some value to be found.
Last year in 16 games, Breida caught 21 passes. In his 3 years at Georgia Southern, he caught 22 passes. As the smaller back, I have seen a few experts say he is the PPR running back to own. I'm not saying Morris is going to get the passing down work (just 57 receptions in 90 career games), but temper expectations. I expect Garcon and Kittle to see an uptick in receiving targets.
Morris WILL get the goal line work and should get the early down work as well. At 5’ 10” and 224 pounds, Morris is better built to handle running between the tackles. Not to mention Morris’ history with Kyle Shanahan. One more fun tidbit…..Morris averaged 4.8 YPC on 115 carries last year.
If either are available in your league, I would recommend a stash. Tough matchup, but game script will be the thing to watch.
Prediction: Both backs look good against a tough defense. Morris capitalizes and gets in the end-zone and is named starter week 2.
Indianapolis Running Backs
The dreaded hamstring injury has Marlon Mack questionable for the opener. This leaves the door potentially open for rookie Jordan Wilkins and Christine Michael. This is not Christine Michael's first chance - I was drinking the Kool-Aid in Seattle. Looking strictly at upside, I am taking a stab at Jordan Wilkins. If he looks good week 1, he could end up keeping the job even when Mack returns. Michael is expected to split carries week 1 if Mack misses time, but we have been down that road before.
Do not forget about Nyheim Hines (4.38 forty at the combine). He fumbled 4 times in 2 preseason games, but the Colts drafted him as their ‘Alvin Kamara’ back. I expect to see him on the field in passing situations but will be on a short leash.
Whoever emerges as the RB1 on the Colts could be a steal. Highest chance is Marion Mack, but I would take a stab at rookie Jordan Wilkins since he is most likely available. If you are in a deep PPR league, keep an eye on how they use Hines and IF he can hold onto the football.
Prediction: Wilkins is the most impressive runner after Mack is ruled out. Does not do enough to keep the job from Mack who returns week 2, but does eat into his carries and this turns into a timeshare.
Packers Wide Receivers
The number 1 on Green Bay’s offense is Davante Adams. His ADP has him pegged as a mid-first round pick which is great value! But what about the other guys? Green Bay brought in Jimmy Graham in the offseason and some would argue he is going to be the number 2 target in the passing attack. I am buying Jimmy Graham as the top red zone target for Aaron Rodgers, but do not think he will be the number 2 option between the 20’s.
Randall Cobb. Dreamy eyed Randall Cobb is listed as the WR2 on the Packers depth chart. In recent news, the Packers have been shopping him for a trade. He is owed a little over 8 million and has had a nagging ankle injury so I do not expect him to depart Green Bay. Watching him last year, it looks like he has been running in quick sand. He does have a history with Aaron Rodgers, but Cobb’s best days are behind him. I am avoiding Cobb this year and looking to see who Aaron builds a connection with that has two good ankles.
Next up on the depth chart is Geronimo Allison. With an ADP in the 13th round, there is a chance that Geronimo is a free agent in your league. Since Cobb is primarily playing in the slot, Allison could be the WR2 opposite Adams, who will draw the most attention. Allison is also entering his 3rd year in the league, historically a break out year for wide receivers. I am willing to take a chance on anyone in the Green Bay offense that could potentially be 2nd in targets (Maybe even first IF Adams were to go down. He did have 2 concussions last year.)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown. Yes, those are the next two rookies in line behind Allison. I also just wanted to type those fabulous names out. MVS showed flashes in the preseason and is listed at 6’ 4” with a 4.37 40 time. Out of the remaining packer WRs he will be the one to keep an eye on. He could see some playing time week 1, but historically Aaron relies on his vets.
Prediction: Allison is the 2nd most targeted WR on the Packers week 1 and is one of the hottest waiver wire adds going into week 2.
