Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We've made it to the double-digit weeks, which means we're in the home stretch of the fantasy regular season. Week 9 saw the surprising debut of Nick Mullens, and an apocalyptic performance by Sam Darnold against the Dolphins. DJ Moore's purported breakout didn't quite go according to plan, but Calvin Ridley found his way back into the end zone and Marquez Valdes-Scantling continued his mid-season surge. Let's take a look at what to expect in week 10, and which rookies could help you improve your playoff positioning this week.
Rookies to Start:
RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 10: @SF): Of course you're starting Barkley in season-long leagues, but he should be a chalky play in DFS cash games this week as well. The 49ers should let him have a solid receiving day since only 4 teams have allowed more RB receptions and only 4 have allowed more RB receiving TDs on the year. Barkley has been the engine of the Giants' offense, and he's a strong RB1 this week once again.
RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 10: vs. Atl.): Duke Johnson is the more popular name after last weekend's 9-catch, 2-score game, but Chubb still notched more than 20 carries and faces a Falcons' defense that ranks 31st in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA. There's room in this matchup for both Chubb and Duke to be solid RB2s.
WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 10: @Cle.): Ridley got back into the end zone last week, and he's a reasonable WR3 option this week. The Browns aren't a great matchup, ranking 2nd in pass defense DVOA, but they have allowed the 11th-most WR points per game (all point totals and ranks are based on PPR scoring). This isn't a matchup to run away from. Ridley should be a solid WR3, but I wouldn't hold it against you if you had 3 really solid options to play over him and sat him.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 10: vs. Atl.): Atlanta has allowed the 3rd-most QB points per game on the year. They've allowed 6 of 7 QBs faced to reach 300 passing yards, and 6 of 7 to reach at least 20 fantasy points. Mayfield has thrown multiple TDs in 3 consecutive games. Mayfield should be a high floor QB2 this week with some appeal as a back-end QB1 in 12-team or deeper leagues.
RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 10: @Ten.): Sony should be active this week, but the Pats could ease him back in after the success Cordarrelle Patterson had at running back against Green Bay. The Titans are a tough matchup, allowing the 4th-fewest RB fantasy points per game, but it'll be tough to sit him if it looks like he'll get his usual role back. Sony tallied at least 92 rushing yards and a TD in each of the 3 full games he played.
RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 10: @Chi.): The Lions' offense really sputtered in their first game after dealing away Golden Tate. It was a tough matchup against a strong Vikings' defense, but things don't get much easier for Kerryon and company this week in Chicago. Johnson still has some upside, but the Bears are allowing the fewest RB fantasy points per game, and Theo Riddick's return has put a damper on KJ's receiving opportunities. Kerryon should be viewed as an upside flex play this weekend.
WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB (Wk. 10: vs. Mia.): Valdes-Scantling has been running as the number 2 WR for the Packers, even with Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison back on the field, and Allison suffered a season-ending groin injury last Sunday night. I'm not quite ready to go all-in on MVS due to his reliance on big plays to post fantasy production, but he's managed to reach double-digit scoring in 4 straight games. The number 2 WR in any Aaron Rodgers offense is a fantasy threat. The Dolphins are allowing just the 9th-fewest WR points per game, but MVS should be a boom-or-bust WR3 option.
WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 10: @KC): The Cardinals will undoubtedly be throwing a lot in this one as 17(!)-point underdogs to Kansas City. Kirk has been the most consistent fantasy WR in Arizona, averaging just under 13 PPR points per game in his past 6 contests. There's always some risk in this low-floor offense, especially now that there is a new coordinator who may try to get DJ and Fitz more involved, but Kirk's upside makes him a decent WR3 option in deeper PPR formats.
WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 10: @Pit.): Moore was a big letdown in a great matchup last Sunday, but he may have been limited by Carolina playing from way ahead most of the day. I wouldn't expect the same result in the Steel City. Pittsburgh isn't as tantalizing a matchup as Tampa, but it's not far behind. The Steelers allow the 6th-most WR points per game. I don't know if this will come up in the game, but the Steelers also have allowed 10 yards per carry to WRs on the 4 attempts they've faced, and Moore is averaging 17 yards per rush on 7 carries. I'd expect a carry or 2 for DJ again. If you were burned by Moore last week, you may hesitate to roll the dice again, but I would be willing to go back to that well.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Nick Mullens, SF (Wk. 10: vs. NYG.): Mullens technically isn't a rookie after spending all of 2017 on the 49ers practice squad, but I'll make an exception and include him after his breakout NFL debut last Thursday. I'd be surprised if Mullens manages to replicate his performance this week. The Giants allowed fewer than 240 passing yards in 5 games out of 8, and a total of just 5 TD passes in those 5 games. There is some appeal in deeper 2-QB leagues or as a cheap DFS tournament option, but he carries a ton of risk.
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 10: vs. Buf.): Darnold fell flat on his face in a plus matchup last week, and gets a much tougher one this Sunday. The Bills have allowed 10 fantasy points or fewer to 4 of the last 7 QBs they've faced, and they've allowed more than 1 passing touchdown to just one of them. Darnold isn't worth the risk even in 2QB leagues this week.
RBs Nyheim Hines & Jordan Wilkins, IND (Wk. 10: vs. Jax.): There is some deep league PPR upside for Hines, but Jacksonville allows just the 7th-fewest RB points per game and has given up the 2nd-fewest RB receptions. Wilkins is stuck behind Marlon Mack on early downs. Mack's big performances late have made Wilkins useless for fantasy purposes.
RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 10: @LAR): Even if Chris Carson sits, Penny just isn't getting enough opportunities to be a useful option. Mike Davis is going to see the lion's share of the work if Carson is out.
WR Tre'Quan Smith, NO (Wk. 10: @Cin.): Tre'Quan has struggled to breakout as the Saints' WR2, and New Orleans added Dez Bryant this week. Smith may still work as the number 2 guy this week, and there's always big potential as the WR2 in this offense, but he's got no more than 3 catches in a game and has only topped 44 yards once. If you're considering using him, keep a close eye on the expected playing time for Dez this week.
WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 10: @Phi.): I was tempted to call Gallup a sleeper this week, but it's hard to get too excited about his upside in this offense even if he's the WR2. Philly has allowed the 4th-most WR points per game, and Gallup has averaged 3 catches for 66 yards in the past 2 games. There's some upside if you want to roll the dice on him as a DFS punt option, but I probably wouldn't consider him for much more than that.
TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 10: vs. Dal.): Goedert is basically a TD dart throw this week against a defense that has allowed just 2 tight end scores on the year. He's posted a total of 10-111-2 over the past 5 games.
TE Chris Herndon, NYJ (Wk. 10: vs. Buf.): Herndon's role has been growing, but he faces a tough matchup this week. The Bills rank 4th in pass defense DVOA on throws to tight ends, and have allowed an average of 2-26 per game over the past 5 games and gave up 2 scores to the position in that span. You're basically praying for a TD if you play him.
Deep-League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 10: @KC): The Chiefs have been improving steadily against the pass, so Rosen is probably no more than a QB2 in the deepest of leagues, but Rosen has had an extra week to get ready for this game and the new offensive coordinator had an extra week to get David Johnson more involved. As improved as they are, Kansas City has still allowed the 6th-most QB points per game. Rosen has a reasonable chance to post his best fantasy game of the year.
RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 10: @Cle.): Tevin Coleman seems to have a firm grasp on the receiving work out of the backfield, but Ito continues to play a significant role as a runner. He's an intriguing flex option this week against a Browns' team that has allowed a league-high 12 RB rushing scores and ranks 30th in run defense DVOA. He's a better option in non-PPR leagues.
RB Josh Adams, PHI (Wk. 10: vs. Dal.): This might not be the best week to run Adams out there in lineups with the Cowboys ranking 4th in run defense DVOA. Josh's recent success has come as a runner, not as a receiver. Still, his 9-61 rushing day before last week's bye should at least earn him a bigger role moving forward in a wide-open backfield. He's worthy of a stash this week, and decent desperation option in deep leagues.
WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 10: vs. Atl.): Callaway's efficiency has been improving in the last couple weeks, and this is a prime matchup with the Falcons allowing the 3rd-most WR points per game. Antonio remains an upside option in deeper leagues.
WR DJ Chark, JAX (Wk. 10: @Ind.): Chark seemed to be ascending in this offense before the bye, posting 4 catches in back-to-back games. The matchup this week isn't enticing with the Colts ranking in the top-10 in the league at limiting WR points, but Chark is an intriguing stash in deeper leagues. He's got size and speed to burn, so his upside goes way up if the Jaguars start to utilize him downfield.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your tough lineup decisions involving the rookies this week. Keep a close eye on the injury report and make sure you don't play any players who wind up being inactive. Feel free to reach out on twitter if you have specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.
