I can't be the only one wondering how the Giants were the only home team to win out of all the early games on Sunday(8). Even the Eagles' TNF victory over the Packers was a road win, which was originally predicted to go in the favor of the home team. Not until the Bears' mid-afternoon victory over the Vikings, did another home squad manage a triumph. Out of 15 contests this past weekend, the home teams finished 4-11. What does this mean about the NFL? What does this say about your overall skill at picking winners? Actually, this past week was a fluke, best erased from memory. Trying to make sense of it all and spending too much time re-assessing your techniques, is not a good habit to get into, especially after a week in which the results are particularly abnormal. Highly unlikely outcomes will usually equate to normalcy in the immediate future. So, what we learn from all this in a nutshell is, don't follow the patterns of victory(because there are none), and don't put all your eggs in one weekly basket.
NICK'S PICKS:
SEA -1.5 The Seahawks are great at running the ball and Russell Wilson ain't too shabby throwing the pigskin, as well as his fancy footwork, which he often brings to the table. The Rams have been showing some hiccups on defense the last couple of weeks and if they can't get Todd Gurley going in the ground game, the offense will start to look one-dimensional. Even great games from Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods and 500+ yards passing from Jared Goff couldn't save Los Angeles from losing at home last week against a week Tampa Bay defense. Seattle also seems to have momentum building. Besides, the word around town is that Russell Wilson heats up as the season progresses.
CHI -5 Being from Chicagoland, I almost always never wager on action involving the Bears. Nothing personal, I just seem to get burned more times than not. However, after seeing their defense so far this season, I'm definitely going to pay attention to their game lines more consistently. I really don't think Chicago will put up that many points, especially with backup Chase Daniel getting the start. But, season starter and now injured QB Mitchell Trubisky is another reason I'm willing to wager on the Bears. I feel that the backup can and will do more for his team than the injured starter even if healthy, who is still early in his development. And if Chicago can get David Montgomery more involved in the run game, then they should be just fine. Oakland is a young, hit or miss mess, who I feel needs another season to grow with head coach Jon Gruden before action can be put down in their favor.
KC -11 The Chiefs are at home this coming week, but this time it's against a much weaker opponent than the Detroit Lions, who made week 4's contest very close. The Colts are next up on the list of teams to get exploited by aerial artisan, Patrick Mahomes... who actually happened to throw for zero TDs(if you can believe it) in the win over the Lions. Indianapolis is a middle of the road team, especially with WR T.Y. Hilton still nursing a bum hammy and on the questionable list. Starting QB Jacoby Brissett is basically surrounded by young, unproven talent at the WR position. Listen, Kansas City's offense is most likely one of the 3 best in the league. They are always a safe play for moneyline action, especially when included in parlays. Although, when it comes to spreads, their 'middle of the road' defense will be the deciding factor, as it comes down to the strength of the offense they will be facing. You maybe asking yourself, "Hey, isn't that the case with any game involving any team?". Well, when a team averages over 30 points of offense per week, it should automatically give you more confidence to risk hard-earned money, as odds will then usually tend to help instead of harm. This is also a reasonable point spread for a powerhouse team playing at home against the league's run-of-the-mill.
NICK'S NIX PICKS(stay away from these games if you like your $$$):
(GB +3.5 / DAL -3.5) Will the real Dak Prescott please stand up?
(DEN +6.5 / LAC -6.5) I still think Joe Flacco is a bum and Philip Rivers usually doesn't play well against the Broncos.
(CLE +3.5 / SF -3.5) The Brown's RB Nick Chubb is coming off a great game against the Ravens, but the 49ers haven't allowed a rushing TD yet this season.
(ATL +5 / HOU -5) Both teams have more than capable QBs and WRs. Both teams have defensive secondarys that suck. A shootout that will come down to big plays.
NICK'S ULTRA MONEYLINE PARLAY PICKS:
(PHI -704 / KC -565 / BAL -173)
(CHI -234 / SEA -124 / ARI +148)
CON-MAN CONFIDENCE(you can't get what I'm selling anywhere else):
* = WINNER
NEP* - 16 - WAS
IND - 15 - KC*
NYJ - 14 - PHI*
CLE - 13 - SF*
MIN* - 12 - NYG
CHI* - 11 - OAK
ARI* - 10 - CIN
GB - 09 - DAL*
BAL* - 08 - PIT
LAR - 07 - SEA*
BUF - 06 - TEN*
DEN - 05 - LAC*
TB* - 04 - NOS
ATL - 03 - HOU*
JAX - 02 - CAR*
