Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re another week deeper into the season and finally starting to get into the bye weeks where things can get a little dicey for your squads if you don’t have great depth. I wouldn’t expect to find much running back help from the rookie crop this week with David Montgomery, Josh Jacobs and Devin Singletary all on byes. Jacobs did put on a show across the pond on Sunday though. Week 5 also saw Kyler Murray get his first win, saw DK Metcalf and Marquise Brown each get back in the end zone, and saw another outstanding performance from Gardner Minshew albeit in a loss. The rookie running backs might have a bleak outlook this week, but there are plenty of other rookies to talk about. Let’s talk about what we can look forward to in week 6 from the rookie crop…

Rookies to Start:

QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 6: vs. Atl.): The Falcons’ defense has really struggled this year, especially since Keanu Neal went down late in the first half of their week 3 game. They rank 30^th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat and in the last 3 weeks they’ve allowed 963 passing yards and a 10:0 TD to INT ratio. They also allowed Marcus Mariota and Deshaun Watson to combine for 69 rushing yards (nice) in the last 2 weeks. Murray has started to use his legs as an asset, racking up 189 yards and 2 scores on the ground in his last 3 games. He may also get Christian Kirk back this week. The TDs will eventually come for Kyler. The Cardinals are tied for 4^th in the NFL with an average of 4 red zone trips per game. I expect Murray to be a top-8 QB this week.

WR Terry McLaurin, WAS (Wk. 6: @Mia.): Don’t be concerned about the coaching change in Washington when it comes to McLaurin. Offensive coordinator Bill Callahan is the guy taking over, so things shouldn’t change much. Former head coach Jay Gruden had a lot of control over the offense previously, so I would expect Callahan to put his own wrinkles in (most notably he’s talked about wanting to run more), but it should remain largely the same offense. The better news for McLaurin this week is that he should get Case Keenum back at QB. Keenum is much more willing to throw downfield than Colt McCoy. McLaurin also goes from facing the best defense in the league to one of the worst. Miami has been shredded by opposing WR1s so far, so McLaurin should be a safe WR3 in your lineups this week.

WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 6: vs. Cin.): Keep an eye on the injury report this week. Head coach John Harbaugh said Brown’s injury is nothing serious, but he isn’t practicing yet as of Thursday. If he does play and it sounds like he’ll be close to 100%, get him in your lineup. The Bengals rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 3^rd-highest yards per attempt in the league to opposing passing attacks. Baltimore has an implied total of 29.5 points, so there should be plenty of offense for them in this one. Other deep threat receivers have fared well against Cincy. DK Metcalf posted 4-89, Marquise Goodwin went 3-77-1, and they also allowed long scores to Diontae Johnson and Tyler Lockett this year. Brown shouldn’t be on your bench unless the injury keeps him there.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Gardner Minshew, JAX (Wk. 6: vs. NO): I keep telling you to sit Minshew each week, and he keeps responding by making me look foolish. He’s continued to turn what look like limited upside matchups into efficient and strong QB2 performances. This week he has a matchup that actually does have some upside for him. Naturally, he’s going to inevitably lay an egg in the week that he should blow up because fantasy football likes to laugh at us, but this looks like a spot where he is a reasonable bye week fill-in and a must-start in 2QB formats. The Saints rank 20^th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 5^th-most points per game to opposing QBs on the year. 4 of the 5 QBs they’ve faced topped 20 fantasy points. Minshew is an interesting option in DFS cash games this week that could allow you to spend your money on the other positions. He’s the 25^th-highest priced QB on DraftKings ($5,000) but has yet to finish worse than the QB16 in any week this year.

WR Mecole Hardman, KC (Wk. 6: vs. Hou.): I’d lean toward starting Mecole this week if you’ve got him, especially if Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins both sit out. As of Wednesday, it sounds like Hill will be a game-time call, and Watkins is probably on the wrong side of questionable. Houston has allowed the 9^th-most WR points per game on the year and the Chiefs have an implied total of 30 points. If Watkins and Hill both sit, 3-wide sets will consist of Hardman, Demarcus Robinson, and Byron Pringle. All 3 would have upside in this matchup, but I’d prefer Hardman over the other two. The return of Hill or Watkins would push him down to more of a WR4 this week.

WR Preston Williams, MIA (Wk. 6: vs. Was.): It feels awkward calling any Dolphin even as much as a borderline fantasy play, but Preston fits the bill this week. Washington has allowed the 3^rd-most WR points per game, and Williams has been the target on nearly a quarter of Josh Rosen’s pass attempts this season. Rosen being named the starter for the remainder of the year is unquestionably a positive thing for Williams’ fantasy outlook. Preston has topped 10 PPR points in 3 out his 4 games this year, and he did that against tougher opponents than Washington. Williams is a reasonable WR3/flex option if you’re dealing with injuries or byes at the position this week.

WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 6: @Cle.): Metcalf’s deep ball upside keeps him in play as a WR3/flex option, but this might not be the best week for him. The Browns have had a conservative approach on the back end of the defense, taking away the deep ball and letting teams beat them underneath. They’ve allowed just 12 passes of 20+ yards though 5 games. It only takes one big play for Metcalf but be aware that he’s a volatile option.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Daniel Jones, NYG (Wk. 6: @NE): Jones posted his worst start of the year in week 5, and things look unlikely to get much better this week. Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram, Sterling Shepard and Wayne Gallman have all been ruled out already for Thursday night’s game and the Giants have an implied total below 14 points. The Patriots rank 2^nd in pass defense DVOA and haven’t allowed at TD pass all year. They also have 11 interceptions through 5 games. This is the worst possible spot to start Jones.

QB Devlin Hodges, PIT (Wk. 6: @LAC): Hodges came into last Sunday’s game against the Ravens after an Earl Thomas hit knocked Mason Rudolph out cold, and he appears likely to get the starting nod this week. He didn’t look completely lost in his first NFL action, completing 7 of 9 passes for 68 yards and adding a 20-yard run, but there were some other incompletions (including an INT) that were negated by penalties. It would be a huge gamble to roll the dice on the undrafted rookie this week. The Chargers rank just 25^th in pass defense DVOA, but only Deshaun Watson has reached 20 fantasy points against them. The Steelers are likely to go with as run-heavy a game plan as they can this week.

QB Dwayne Haskins, WAS (Wk. 6: @Mia.): Bill Callahan made it clear after taking over as the new head coach that he shares Jay Gruden’s outlook for Haskins: they don’t want him starting right now. Callahan said Haskins may be inactive some weeks with Keenum and McCoy both healthy. There is no reason to hold onto Haskins in redraft leagues right now.

RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 6: @Min.): Sanders is a really dicey flex option this week after comments from Doug Pederson that Jordan Howard will get more carries going forward. Howard has been a more decisive runner and has taken advantage of the Eagles’ mauling offensive line more effectively than Sanders has. The rookie may have a saving grace this week with Darren Sproles sidelined. It should be Sanders working as the primary receiving back this week (unless Corey Clement pops up). The problem is that Minnesota has allowed the 2^nd-fewest RB receptions and receiving yards per game. I’d avoid playing Sanders this week unless you have to. Even if he still sees ok rushing volume, the Vikings rank 2^nd in run defense DVOA.

RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 6: @NYJ): There is a chance that Pollard actually has a nice week at the Meadowlands. Pollard averaged 11 touches per game in the Cowboys’ 3 easy wins to open the year, and then played just 7 combined offensive snaps in the two losses since. The Cowboys are a touchdown favorite on Sunday, so Pollard may get involved late. The reason I list him as a ‘rookie to sit’ is because the Jets do have a decent run defense (11^th in run defense DVOA) and I really don’t know what kind of league I would be desperate enough to play him in.

RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 6: vs. Phi.): Mattison continued his trend of flashing in games with positive game script in week 5. He’s averaged 53 scrimmage yards per game in the Vikings’ 3 wins and just 19 yards in their 2 losses. Minnesota is a 3-point favorite this week, but I wouldn’t be looking for another 50-yard day out of Mattison. The Eagles have wiped out opposing running games, allowing less than 50 rushing yards per game to opposing backfields. Dalvin Cook might struggle to get to 50 yards on the ground in this one. I don’t expect there to be much left over for the rookie.

RB Justice Hill, BAL (Wk. 6: vs. Cin.): The matchup in week 6 is a juicy one for Baltimore’s backfield. The Bengals allow the 2^nd-most RB points per game and rank 26^th in run defense DVOA, but Hill has been an afterthought in this offense. He played the fewest snaps that he has all year in week 5. His DraftKings price tag is just $3,200, so you could roll the dice on him getting some extended run in a GPP tournament if you’re feeling feisty, but Gus Edwards is likely the biggest benefactor if the Ravens win in a rout.

RB Ryquell Armstead, JAX (Wk. 6: vs. NO): Armstead followed up a strong performance in week 4 with a disappearing act in week 5. He’s got 12 touches on the year, and 9 of them were in that week 4 contest. He’s no more than a Leonard Fournette handcuff at this point with next to no standalone value.

RB Dexter Williams, GB (Wk. 6: vs. Det.): Dexter seemed to have a prime opportunity to step up last weekend with Jamaal Williams sidelined. Instead the Packers activated Tra Carson from their practice squad and let him serve as the #2 back. Apparently, Dexter’s pass blocking isn’t where it needs to be for the Packers to trust him on the field. There isn’t any reason to have him rostered in redraft formats.

WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (Wk. 6: @LAC): Johnson has had a healthy target share for the Steelers since Big Ben went down and the Chargers are in the middle of the pack when it comes to points allowed to WRs, but Devlin Hodges at QB means I’m not willing to trust Diontae in lineups this week, even with James Washington sidelined. Johnson also needs to fix his ball control issues going forward. He’s fumbled twice in as many weeks, and his playing time will start to go down if that continues.

WR Miles Boykin, BAL (Wk. 6: vs. Cin.): Boykin gets a decent matchup against the Bengals this week. As I mentioned with Hollywood Brown earlier, they rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA, and the Ravens have an implied team total of just under 30 points. Unfortunately for Boykin, he’s settled in as a guy playing right around 30% of the offensive snaps each week. That just isn’t enough playing time to trust him even in good matchups. This isn’t a bad week to hope he finds the end zone, but that’s really as much as you can hope for here unless Brown misses this game. If Brown is out, Boykin should get a little additional run but is still more of a dart throw than reliable option.

WR Andy Isabella, ARI (Wk. 6: vs. Atl.): Kliff Kingsbury stayed mostly true to his word last weekend and didn’t move Andy Isabella into the slot to replace Christian Kirk. Instead he used a rotation of Pharoh Cooper and his 2 tight ends (Maxx Williams & Charles Clay). Isabella did see a season-high 10 snaps, but he wasn’t targeted at all. He did get 2 rushing attempts. It sounds like Kirk will return this week, but even if he doesn’t, Isabella isn’t a guy to consider.

TE Irv Smith, MIN (Wk. 6: vs. Phi.): Smith played 51% of the Vikings’ offensive snaps last week…and wasn’t targeted even once. There will be weeks where the ball comes his way, but those weeks will be hard to predict in this low volume passing offense.

TE TJ Hockenson, DET (Wk. 6: @GB): The fact that the Lions had to come out after Hockenson’s concussion and say that he won’t be put on IR doesn’t make it sound like he’ll be back right away. Stunningly he was back at practice Wednesday & Thursday, but he is still in the concussion protocol. It seems like he’s trending in the right direction, but he could end up a game-time decision and the Packers have allowed the 6^th-fewest tight end points per game this year. Since Hock plays on Monday, there really won’t be a way to have backup plan if Hockenson sits at the last minute. You’d basically be choosing between Jesse James and Robert Tonyan in that scenario (unless you have Jimmy Graham). I’d much rather just play someone else rather than wait on Hockenson in a tougher matchup.

Rookies on Byes: RB David Montgomery, CHI, RB Josh Jacobs, OAK, RB Devin Singletary, BUF, WR Hunter Renfrow, OAK, WR Parris Campbell, IND, TE Dawson Knox, BUF, TE Foster Moreau, OAK

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Jon Hilliman, NYG (Wk. 6: @NE): With Gallman and Barkley ruled out, Hilliman is the default starting running back for the Giants this week. He doesn’t get an inviting matchup. The Patriots haven’t let any running back get into the end zone this year, and they allow the 2^nd-fewest RB fantasy points per game and rank 3^rd in run defense DVOA. With the game script expected to be very negative for the Giants, Hilliman will have to do work in the passing game to return a decent day. He did catch 36 passes in his last 2 college seasons despite not being a workhorse back, so he may not be a slouch as a receiver. I wouldn’t be too interested in him in redraft leagues, especially with Saquon looking like he’ll return next week, but a $3,200 price tag in DraftKings for a starting running back is at least intriguing in a GPP tournament.

RB Benny Snell, PIT (Wk. 6: @LAC): The Steelers only face one defense ranked higher than 23^rd in run defense DVOA in their next 7 games, and Jaylen Samuels is out for a month. Samuels had been mixing in behind Conner a decent amount, and while Snell isn’t nearly as versatile as Jaylen, the Steelers are very likely to focus on running the football while Devlin Hodges is at QB. Snell should work as a change of pace back behind Conner for the coming weeks and is worth scooping up in deeper formats.

RB Reggie Bonnafon, CAR (Wk. 6: @TB): For some inexplicable reason Jordan Scarlett is the highest priced rookie running back on DraftKings this week ($4,300) despite playing just 5 offensive snaps on the season. Anyone paying attention knows Bonnafon is the handcuff back here. Bonnafon played 11 snaps last weekend when Christian McCaffrey was dealing with cramps and he turned in a 5-80-1 line. I don’t suggest using Bonnafon this week as the Bucs rank #1 in the league in run defense DVOA. Bonnafon is worth scooping up as insurance in deep leagues if you have CMC.

WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 6: @Den.): Brown has been the epitome of boom or bust this season. He’s has more PPR points in each of his two ‘boom’ games than he does in the other 3 combined. Chris Harris Jr. is likely to shadow Corey Davis this week, which should benefit Brown. Other notable number one receivers who have faced the Broncos include Allen Robinson (4-41), Davante Adams (4-56), DJ Chark (4-44) and Keenan Allen (4-18). Number 2 receivers have fared better – Marquez Valdes-Scantling (6-99-1), Dede Westbrook (5-66) and Mike Williams (6-74). Brown is in play this week in deep leagues and in DFS tournaments.

WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 6: @LAR): The 49ers have had one of the toughest WR groups to figure out for fantasy purposes. None of them were useful on Monday night as they blew the doors off the Browns. No receiver had more than 4 targets. This week’s game projects as more of a shootout with an over/under of 50. The 49ers should be forced to throw a little more, and the Rams rank 24^th in pass defense DVOA. San Francisco has tried to manufacture ways to get the ball into Deebo’s hands, so he’s the 49er receiver I’d be most likely to take a shot on having a big game this week.

WR KeeSean Johnson, ARI (Wk. 6: vs. Atl.): Johnson was basically a full-time player in week 5 with Christian Kirk out. Kirk might be out again this week, and Johnson was targeted 7 times in his absence on Sunday. The Falcons allow the 2^nd-most WR points per game, so there is legitimate upside for KeeSean this week if Kirk sits again.

WR Jakobi Meyers, NE (Wk. 6: vs. NYG): With Phillip Dorsett sidelined, Meyers will step in as the full time WR3 for the time being. That didn’t result in much fantasy production last week, but he should be more of a factor moving forward. If Dorsett misses several weeks Meyers should be a decent add in deep leagues. He gets a decent matchup with the Giants this week who rank 29^th in pass defense DVOA. He’s basically a dart throw this week in a game the Pats should run away with.

WR Darius Slayton, NYG (Wk. 6: @NE): Slayton doesn’t have a great matchup this week, but Daniel Jones will have to throw the ball somewhere and Slayton has been the guy he’s had the best connection with among the available options. He’s topped 11 PPR points in two of his last 3 games and costs just $100 more than the minimum on DraftKings. He has nice upside for a bottom of the barrel DFS tournament play, even in this brutal matchup.

TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 6: vs. Ten.): Fant saw his lowest target total of the season last Sunday and was outscored by teammate Jeff Heuerman, but he remained right around the same snap share that he’s been playing (66%). The Broncos got an early lead and leaned on the run game against the Chargers. This week’s matchup is one to target with tight ends. The Titans have allowed a tight end score in 4 of 5 games this year and allowed a 9-130 line to Austin Hooper in the other game. Fant is a solid TD dart throw this week.

TE Josh Oliver, JAX (Wk. 6: vs. NO): I mention Oliver this week because the Jaguars’ starting tight end James O’Shaughnessy suffered a season-ending ACL tear this week. I wouldn’t be racing to the waiver wire to pick him up in any redraft formats, but he may be worth a flier in deep dynasty leagues, especially TE premium formats. Oliver was the team’s primary pass catcher as a senior at San Jose State last year, hauling in more than 21% of the team’s catches, and more than 22.5% of their receiving yards. Geoff Swaim and Seth DeValve are both likely ahead of Oliver on the depth chart, but Jacksonville has utilized 3 tight ends this season, and Oliver may be the best receiver of the healthy trio. DeValve had played at least 22% of the offensive snaps each of the past 3 weeks as the team’s TE3. DeValve hasn’t seen a single target this year, and Swaim has turned 15 targets into 12 catches for just 60 yards. Monitor how much Oliver is used this week. If he has an obvious passing game role, he should become a guy worth adding in redraft formats.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest decisions involving rookies this week. Keep a close eye on the injury report this week. There are a ton of injuries that could have an impact on these outlooks – Marquise Brown, Sammy Watkins, Tyreek Hill, Saquon Barkley, Christian Kirk, Phillip Dorsett, etc. Make sure you know what injuries may affect your lineup and have a backup plan ready for Sunday. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.