Webster's defines a trend as: "the general movement over time of a statistically detectable change". Here at drinkfive.com, we generally like trends that show 3 weeks of an uptick or regression of player's usage, effectiveness or general point scoring. Check out the Fantasy Finish Line podcast to hear a more in-depth discussion about all of these players. All fantasy point totals are based on Yahoo standard scoring, unless otherwise indicated.
Aaron Rodgers, Wk 5 @ DAL 9.42, Wk 6 vs DET 19.32, Wk 7 vs OAK 43.76.
This year, Aaron Rodgers has not quite looked like himself. For the first 6 weeks, he only had one game above 20 points. His utterly dominant performance in Week 7 seems to indicate that he’s gotten back on track. Over the past three weeks, he’s gone from his lowest total (mainly due to Aaron Jones’ huge game in Dallas) up to arguably his best game of his career last week against Oakland. The Packers offense did look pretty terrible to start the season, and personally I felt that it was the fault of the play calling. It seems like this has improved, and some of Rodgers’ passing numbers are looking pretty good. He has 12.5 yards per completion, his best since 2014 when he was an All-pro. His 8.1 yards per pass attempt is also the highest it’s been since 2014 (the Pack went 12-4 that season). As long as his receiving group doesn’t just completely fall apart (he’ll eventually get Davante Adams back), he should continue to creep up the QB list – he’s currently the QB7 in fantasy football.
David Montgomery, Wk 4 vs MIN 6.70, Wk 5 @ OAK 9.60, Wk 7 vs NO -0.10.
Montgomery was quite a hyped back coming into the season, and he’s still owned in 88% of Yahoo leagues, but the Bears run game has disappeared. Montgomery’s carries have gone from a season high of 21 in Wk 4 down to 11 and then just 2 carries last week. The Bears have totally abandoned the run game, and have been heavily criticized by the Chicago media because of it. Aside from a random score in Week 5, he has belonged firmly on your bench, which is not befitting of a player who has this kind of ownership share in leagues. The Bears upcoming games are vs LAC, @PHI and vs DET. The Chargers and Lions are both giving up top 10 points to opposing RBs, but I have no faith in the team to run the ball consistently. Not knowing what to expect from this situation, I suggest just staying away from it – don’t be tempted by good matchups or thinking that outside pressure will change the way they call plays.
Chase Edmonds, Wk 5 @ CIN 14.60, Wk 6 vs ATL 12.70, Wk 7 @ NYG 33.00.
Edmonds has been very impressive the last 3 weeks, and coincidentally (or not), the Cardinals have won all 3 of those games. David Johnson was limited last week with a back injury (he should ask Jalen Ramsey about his guy…), but now he’s missing practice with an ankle injury, so I expect to see more Edmonds in Week 8. Edmonds snap percentage had been varying from about 10-40% with Johnson in, but with him out, he was in on 94% of offensive snaps last week. Sure, the Cardinals signed Alfred Morris and Zach Zenner, but they’re just guys to fill out the roster. Edmonds has 5 TDs in the last 3 weeks and will be full steam ahead, even against a tough New Orleans team, who will find the Cardinals a much tougher opponent than the one they faced last week.
John Brown, Wk 4 vs NE 6.90, Wk 5 @TEN 7.50, Wk 7 vs MIA 14.30.
The Bills offense has been a bit shaky, but John Brown has remained steady. He’s got 5 catches per game during this stretch, and his yardage has gone up in each game, from 69 to 75 to 83 last week with a TD tacked on. Brown is on the field for 80+% of snaps every game, with two of the last three going above 90%. He led the team in targets the last 2 weeks and is just 1 behind Cole Beasley for the team lead in targets for the season. He has a significant lead on receiving yards on the team this year. Brown should continue to trend in the right direction as he has great matchups coming up. His next 3 games are vs PHI, vs WAS and @CLE. The Eagles and Redskins are both in the top 10 giving up points to WRs, and Cleveland is 19th. Brown is the WR22 in standard scoring this year, keep him in your lineup for the time being.
Larry Fitzgerald, Wk 5 @CIN 5.80, Wk 6 vs ATL 6.90, Wk 7 @NYG 1.20.
Fitz started the season with back-to-back 100+ yard games and 2 TDs in his first 3, but has not done a lot since then. His yardage high is just 69 during the last 5 weeks, and that came against a really soft Atlanta defense. Last week against the Giants, who are just as soft, he managed just one catch for 12 yards, though that probably had more to do with the way the game was going and how well the Cardinals were running the ball. Regardless, he often trails the RBs in receiving yardage and it’s possible that his age is finally catching up with him. He has to play in New Orleans this week and then plays the 49ers twice in the following three weeks. These are all bad matchups for him and he should probably be on your bench, or the trading block, if you can drum up any interest.
