Hello, fellow risk-takers. If you are unfamiliar with my my column, it is geared towards NFL wagering. Every week I'll bring you 3-5 of my most confident, spread based picks, as well as the same amount of point based picks to stay away from. Additionally, I will give you several 3-game, moneyline parlays that I think are a lock to win. Finally, I present my weekly confidence pool picks for those looking for an edge against their competition. As always, good luck and wager wisely!

Well, as I mentioned last week, there were going to be a lot of road victories. I ended up going 11-3 for my confidence picks. Not bad, not bad. Didn't win a whole lot because a lot of those games seemed like a trap, but at least I wound up in the black. This week however, it appears most home teams have the edge. I was thinking I'd have some more backbone and pry the wallet open a little wider this time around. Additionally, bad weather is going to be expected in 3-4 games this week, with another 5 contests being played in a dome.

NICK'S PICKS:

BUF -2.5  I'm taking the Bills all day. Philadelphia's secondary is near the bottom of the league and their run game isn't that consistent. I just think that Buffalo's defense will be too much for Carson Wentz and the Eagles.

DET -6.5  I have a feeling Matthew Stafford will shred the Giants' defense. Add to the stew that the Lions have home field advantage, and you end up with a tasty victory.

SEA -8  The Seahawks are on the road, yet the Falcons are one of the worst teams currently in the game. And, Atlanta will be without injured QB Matt Ryan, giving Seattle's defense a chance to feast on backup Matt Schaub. It's a no-brainer in this one.

NICK'S NIX PICKS(stay away from these games if you like your money):

(TB +2.5 / TEN -2.5)  Jameis Winston is too streaky and I just have a bad feeling about this one.

(DEN +4.5 / IND -4.5)  The Broncos Have a top 5 secondary but the Colts' gunslinger, Jacoby Brissett, has the the most red zone TDs in the league. And, Indy's defense and run game are also pretty tight.

(CIN +11 / LAR -11)  London Bridge is falling down, falling down. Yeah, the Rams SHOULD win... but anything can happen in these games. Save this salty, sea scratch for something sweet.

(CAR +5 / SF -5)  Other than the Rams(who weren't on top of their game at the time), I still don't feel that the 49ers have played a solid team yet, as most of this season's past foes are around the .500 mark or under. They barely escaped with a victory in Washington last week... and the Panthers are NOT the Redskins. I have a feeling San Fran might get their first loss to a team fresh off their bye week. Carolina has a very good defensive line and one of the RBs in the league.

NICK'S ULTRA MONEYLINE PARLAY PICKS:

(SEA -370 / BUF -130 / DET -279)

(NOS -613 / LAR -621 / HOU -270 / NEP -503)

CON-MAN CONFIDENCE(you can't get what I'm selling anywhere else):

* = WINNER

CLE - 16 - NEP*

CIN - 15 - LAR*

WAS - 14 - MIN*

ARI - 13 - NOS*

NYG - 12 - DET*

SEA* -11 - ATL

MIA - 10 - PIT*

DEN - 09 - IND*

PHI - 08 - BUF*

NYJ - 07 - JAX*

LAC* -06 -CHI

TB   - 05 - TEN*

OAK - 04 - HOU*

CAR* - 03 - SF

GB   - 02 - KC*