Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Hopefully you survived the bye-pocalypse last week and are still in pretty good shape in the playoff picture. Week 10 featured some breakout rookie performances. Darius Slayton and Deebo Samuel put up monster games due to injuries to the other weapons on their teams. DK Metcalf and Irv Smith matched their career high with 6 and 5 catches respectively and Andy Isabella saw his role expand in Arizona with a 3-77 line. Josh Jacobs and Marquise Brown each got in the end zone as well. The week wasn’t as friendly to Devin Singletary and David Montgomery but both managed to post reasonable performances. There are a few more byes to get through this week, so let’s look at what rookies could help you plug some holes…
Rookies to Start:
RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 11: vs. Cin.): Look, you don’t need me to tell you to start Jacobs this week, but I want to emphasize that he’s one of the best chalk plays in DFS this week. He’s topped 10 PPR points in 6 straight games and has been a top-12 RB in 4 of those contests. This week he gets to face a Bengals’ defense that has allowed the 4th-most RB points per game and ranks 29th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. The Raiders are a 10.5-point favorite and should be running a ton. Jacobs is probably a top-5 RB play this week.
RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 11: @Mia.): Singletary was badly underutilized last week, but I don’t expect the Bills to repeat that mistake in Miami. Devin’s been playing about two-thirds of the Bills’ offensive snaps for 3 weeks running now, and the Dolphins allow the 5th-most RB points per game and rank 30th in run defense DVOA. Although Miami has been playing at a higher level lately, I expect the Bills to win easily. Frank Gore may even have some value as a flex option this week, but Singletary should be a very safe RB2 option.
WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 11: vs. Hou.): Brown posted his best fantasy game since week 2 last week, and that came in a game where the Ravens’ starters didn’t see the field in the last 20 minutes of a blowout win. The Texans are much more likely to keep the game close than the Bengals were, and their defense allows the 3rd-most points per game to opposing WRs. Brown is listed as questionable for this game, but he did get in a limited practice on Friday and seems likely to play. Keep on eye on the injury report to make sure that Brown won’t be hampered too badly, but if he’s close to 100% he should be right on the edge of WR2/3 with upside for plenty more.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 11: @SF): Murray surprisingly finished as the QB6 when he faced the 49ers just 2 weeks ago, but I wouldn’t be confident in a repeat performance. The 49ers will be at home in this one, and they still have allowed the fewest passing yards per game in the league and allowed the 2nd-fewest QB points per game. Murray has benefitted from the recent emergence of Andy Isabella and has consistently shown the upside to be a reasonable fill-in if your QB is on a bye this week (Russ Wilson, Aaron Rodgers), but I wouldn’t play him over any of the high-end QB1s. He’s reasonably priced on DraftKings as just the 12th-highest priced signal caller at $6,100, but I’d be more inclined to use him in a cash game than a tournament.
RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 11: vs. NE): Sanders feels a little bit like a trap this week in season-long leagues. He seems poised to be the lead back for the Eagles with Jordan Howard extremely questionable and the Pats rank just a middling 14th in run defense DVOA. Still, the Patriots have allowed the fewest RB points per game on the year and Doug Pederson has always preferred a running back committee over a workhorse. Sanders should lead that committee, but newly signed Jay Ajayi should see some early down work as well and Boston Scott may mix in a bit on passing downs. Ajayi knows the offense so there shouldn’t be any ramp up time needed to get him in there if he’s healthy. I’d expect Sanders to get somewhere between 50 and 65 percent of the RB touches. His production has been on the upswing lately and that volume should make him an RB2 this week, but the tough matchup makes him less than a sure thing. He’s should be a staple in DFS lineups this week at just $4,100 on DraftKings (the 48th-highest priced running back).
RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 11: @LAR): Despite his down game against the Lions last week, Monty has averaged 19 carries for 78 yards and a TD per game on the ground over the last 3 weeks and 17.7 PPR points per game in that stretch. He’s been less than efficient as a runner with fewer than 4 yards per carry in all but 2 games this year, but he has been able to get by on volume. The hope is that he’s able to do the same this week. The Rams allow the 11th-fewest RB points per game and rank 3rd in run defense DVOA, and Montgomery is banged up and shaping up as a game-time decision for Sunday night. If he ends up playing, Monty is probably a low end RB2 or high end RB3 this week, but if you don’t have a backup plan in case he doesn’t go, I’d probably sit Montgomery for someone who plays earlier in the day.
RB Ty Johnson, DET (Wk. 11: vs. Dal.): Johnson has cleared the concussion protocol and should return to his role as the lead back of the Detroit committee this week. JD McKissic failed to do enough to wrest the job away with just 55 yards on 16 touches against Chicago. Johnson really wasn’t much better, but he did play 12 of the first 15 snaps of the game before getting injured. If he returns to that role as expected, he’ll be in play as an RB3/flex option due to volume. The Cowboys have allowed the 13th-most RB points per game and rank 15th in run defense DVOA. If Detroit can stay in the game, Johnson should see in the range of 12-15 touches. If they fall behind, McKissic may see a bigger share of the work.
WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 11: vs. Ari.): With Emmanuel Sanders and George Kittle out on Monday night, we finally got to see what Deebo would look like as the featured weapon of the passing game, and it was impressive. Samuel finished with 8 catches for 112 yards on 11 targets and made plays throughout the game. Sanders and Kittle both seem on the fence for this week, and if they both sit Samuel is a strong WR3 play against a Cardinals’ defense that allows the 9th-most WR points per game. If either or both of those guys play, Samuel becomes more of an upside fill-in option if you’re looking for bye replacements. He’s flashed the ability to be a playmaker in this offense. He just needs to keep seeing the opportunity. He’ll be a steal in DFS lineups at just $4,000 in DraftKings if Kittle and Sanders sit.
WR Terry McLaurin, WAS (Wk. 11: vs. NYJ): It’s hard to have complete faith in McLaurin given how Dwayne Haskins has played thus far, but this is the best possible matchup for him to face to get back on track. Interim coach Bill Callahan plans to move McLaurin around the formation a bit more going forward; Haskins for the first time has had a full week of practice knowing he is going to start a game; and the Jets’ defense is extremely banged up and has given up 10 receiving TDs to opposing WRs in their last 3 games (vs. Mia, Jax, and NYG). If McLaurin doesn’t smash in this spot, it’s hard to envision a spot where he will produce going forward. I can understand if you’re hesitant to trust him after he’s put up just 9 catches for 89 yards in his last 3 games, but I’d be willing to run him out there as a WR3 this week.
WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (Wk. 11: @Cle.): Johnson has proven to be a useful fantasy WR3/flex option a handful of times this year, and he should fall into that range again in Cleveland. There has been a little bit of volatility with Johnson as James Washington has started to emerge in recent weeks and the return of James Conner likely means a more run-heavy game plan. The Browns have been an above average defense against WRs, allowing the 12th-fewest PPR points per game to opposing perimeter receivers, but since the return of Denzel Ward & Greedy Williams in week 8 they've allowed strong games to Julian Edelman (8-78-2), Courtland Sutton (5-56-1), and John Brown (5-77). The matchup isn't an ideal one, but it isn't prohibitive either. I wouldn't be excited to use Diontae as a fill-in for a 10-team league, but you could do worse in leagues of 12 or more teams. Johnson has been good for 6 or so targets most weeks, and he's made a habit of making the most of his opportunities.
UPDATE: Johnson finished with 2 catches for 17 yards on 4 targets before leaving the game early in the 2nd half after suffering a concussion.
TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 11: @Min.): The Broncos have made a point to get Fant more involved since the Emmanuel Sanders trade. He was having a hard time breaking out while splitting reps with Jeff Heuerman at tight end, but with Heuerman injured the past 2 games Fant has seen his snap share climb to 82% and 86% in the past 2 contests. Heuerman is doubtful for week 11. The Vikings allow the 14th-fewest TE points per game, but that ranking comes largely on the fact that they haven’t allowed a tight end to score a touchdown. They’ve allowed 4 tight ends to reach double-digit PPR points this year and allowed both Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz to clear 9 when they faced the Eagles. There is some fear that Brandon Allen starting at QB puts a cap on Fant’s ceiling, but he did manage a long TD in Allen’s one start so far. While that play may not be predictive of what Fant will do going forward, he’s right on the cusp of being a TE1 option this week.
TE TJ Hockenson, DET (Wk. 11: vs. Dal.): Hockenson may finally be turning the corner in his rookie season. In the past two weeks against Oakland and Chicago he’s been targeted 13 times and seen his two highest yardage totals since week 1. The Cowboys have been vulnerable to tight ends, allowing the 4th-most points per game to the position and Jeff Driskel was able to find TJ 3 times for 47 yards last Sunday. I like Hockenson’s chances to break 50 yards this week, and he could find himself on the cusp of being a top-10 play in this one.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Dwayne Haskins, WAS (Wk. 11: vs. NYJ): The upside is there for Haskins to surprise this week and I could see rolling the dice on him if you were desperate for a QB2, but he hasn’t shown nearly enough to be trusted in lineups. Haskins has averaged less than 6.5 yards per attempt and has 0 TDs and 4 picks in 3 appearances. I like his chances to throw his first career TD pass, but I wouldn’t count on him to approach the 26 fantasy points per game the Jets have given up to QBs over the past 3 weeks. Like I said, the matchup is great. The question is whether you trust Haskins to take advantage.
RB Qadree Ollison, ATL (Wk. 11: @Car.): Ollison might get his first touches of the year this week with Devonta Freeman and Ito Smith both out, but I don’t expect him to be involved enough to be fantasy relevant with both Brian Hill and Kenjon Barner ahead of him on the depth chart. He’s still another injury away from being worth scooping up off the wire.
RB Darrell Henderson, LAR (Wk. 11: vs. Chi.): With Malcolm Brown back from injury last week Henderson was limited to just 8 offensive snaps while Brown played 12. He’d need an injury to Brown or Gurley to go back to being a usable option.
RB Ryquell Armstead, JAX (Wk. 11: @Ind.): The last time we saw Armstead, he was putting up 5 catches for 65 yards back in week 9. Don’t read anything into those numbers. All the catches came in garbage time, and Armstead played just 9 offensive snaps in that contest. He won’t see that kind of passing game work again all year without a Fournette injury. He remains just a handcuff for the time being.
WR Olabisi Johnson, MIN (Wk. 11: vs. Den.): Adam Thielen will sit again this week, but Johnson will likely be no more than a TD dart throw. He’s been playing more than 70% of the offensive snaps for the last 4 games but has just 9 catches for 96 yards and 2 TDs to show for it. The Broncos allow the 3rd-fewest WR points per game. With Minnesota favored by 10 points I don’t expect a lot of passing volume, so if you’re playing Johnson in any format it’s with the hope that he gets in the end zone.
WR Mecole Hardman, KC (Wk. 11: @LAC): Hardman found the end zone again last week on a long play but has played just 38 offensive snaps in the last 3 weeks. He’s managed to find ways to produce with a line of 3-118-2 on just 3 targets in those weeks, but the limited snaps give him a legitimate goose egg floor. His speed and his QB give him weekly big play upside, but the Chargers have given up just 2 pass plays of 40+ yards all season long.
WR KeeSean Johnson, ARI (Wk. 11: @SF): Johnson did see his playing time increase a bit in week 10, but he’s been targeted just 14 times in his last 4 games and is averaging just 9 yards per catch. He gets a tough matchup this week against a San Francisco defense that allows the 5th-fewest WR points per game. He did find the end zone the last time the Cards faced the 49ers, but it was his only TD of the season. I’d avoid KeeSean this week.
WRs Jakobi Meyers & N’Keal Harry, NE (Wk. 11: @Phi.): This is a plus matchup for the New England receivers with Philly allowing the 8th-most WR points per game, but with Mohamed Sanu fully integrated into the offense Meyers played just 1 offensive snap in week 9 ahead of the bye. N’Keal Harry is poised to be active for the first time this season Sunday, but it remains to be seen what kind of role he’ll have. New England seems to have their 3-WR sets pretty well figured out, so I’d like to see how N’Keal gets utilized before considering him in lineups.
TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 11: @Mia.): Knox had his best game in weeks last Sunday against the Browns, but it was a game that the Bills trailed for most of. There has been little in-between for Knox this year. He has 3 games with 50+ yards, and fewer that 25 in every other game. 2 of his 3 strong games came in Buffalo losses. The Bills are favored by a touchdown this week. There is a chance that Knox has a nice game, but I would bet this is more likely to be a game below 25 yards than one over 50. The Dolphins haven’t been good this year, but they’ve been middling against tight ends, allowing the 15th-most points per game to the position. You could do worse than Knox this week, but you could almost certainly do better.
TE Foster Moreau, OAK (Wk. 11: vs. Cin.): You know the drill with Moreau. He needs a touchdown to be helpful, and while the Bengals have an abysmal defense, they’ve given up just 3 touchdowns to opposing tight ends on the year. Moreau is no more likely to find the end zone than Darren Waller (both have 3 scores on the year), and that means he’s a dicey TD dart throw this week.
Rookies on byes in Week 11: QB Daniel Jones, NYG, WR DK Metcalf, SEA, WR AJ Brown, TEN, WR Darius Slayton, NYG, TE Jace Sternberger, GB
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Ryan Finley, CIN (Wk. 11: @Oak.): Finley acquitted himself fairly well in his NFL debut despite facing a dangerous Ravens’ defense without AJ Green. He already has more TD passes on the year than Dwayne Haskins. This week he gets to face an Oakland defense that has allowed multiple TD passes in 6 straight games and has allowed the 3rd highest passer rating in the league. He’s obviously a risky option making just his second pro start, but the matchup is fantastic and as just the 27th-highest priced QB on DraftKings he’s got some nice DFS upside this week. If you’re desperate for a QB2 I’d prefer Finley over Haskins, Driskel, or Brandon Allen.
RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 11: @Det.): When Dallas plays from ahead Pollard gets opportunities, and this looks like a week where they’ll play from ahead. Dallas is a touchdown favorite with Jeff Driskel expected to make his second consecutive start, and the Lions allow the 2nd-most RB points per game. If you’re desperate at running back due to injuries or byes and were unable to grab Brian Hill off waivers, Pollard is a decent option who could post a solid day in garbage time. He’s had 41 carries and 7 targets in the Cowboys’ 5 wins and averaged 19.6 offensive snaps in those games.
RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 11: vs. Den.): Minnesota is favored by double-digits, so Mattison is a safe bet for 5-6 points with a chance at more if he finds the end zone. In Minnesota’s 7 wins, he’s averaged 10 carries for 50.4 yards, and has finished between 49 and 63 yards in 6 of them. He’s started to see a target here and there as well, but the real upside would come from a late TD. Denver’s defense isn’t a pushover, ranking 9th in run defense DVOA, but Mattison’s production has been almost automatic in their wins. If you like the rest of your lineup and are trying to fill one flex spot in a deep league, it might make more sense to go with the safe handful of points Mattison gives you rather than rolling with a more volatile option like Derrius Guice, JD McKissic, or Nyheim Hines.
WR Hunter Renfrow, OAK (Wk. 11: vs. Cin.): The Raiders should be able to do whatever they want against the Bengals’ hapless defense, and although the run game will be their preferred method of attack there will be an opportunity for Renfrow to make an impact. Hunter has gone 14-184-2 on 16 targets in the past 3 weeks, and the Bengals have been shredded by slot receivers this year. They’ve given up solid days to Cole Beasley (8-48), Larry Fitzgerald (6-58), Dede Westbrook (6-103), and Cooper Kupp (7-220-1). Renfrow is a decent bet for double-digit PPR points.
WR Andy Isabella, ARI (Wk. 11: @SF): I mention Isabella here more as a stash than a guy to play this week. At just $3,500 on DraftKings there is a case to be made for him as a cheap dart throw in DFS tournaments, but his role as a downfield threat could be useful down the stretch in season-long leagues if his playing time keeps increasing. His offensive snaps have gone from 1 to 13 to 26 over the past 3 games, and in the past 2 he’s turned 4 targets into 4 catches for 166 yards and a TD. He’s like Mecole Hardman in that his production is going to come from big yardage plays, but unlike Hardman his playing time is increasing rather than decreasing.
TE Irv Smith Jr., MIN (Wk. 11: vs. Den.): Just like last week, the Vikings face a defense that is tougher on wide receivers than it is on tight ends. The Broncos are still somewhat tough on tight ends, allowing the 12th-fewest points per game to the position, but they’re stifling against receivers. Smith managed 5 catches last week and played a season-high 74% of the offensive snaps. I’d expect a similar role this week. Look for Smith to get a handful of targets and possibly find his way into the end zone. I like his upside again this week if you need a fill-in in really deep leagues.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury reports ahead of kickoff Sunday and make sure you don’t end up starting any inactive players. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to reach out via twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
