Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve made it to the final week bye week of the season. Hopefully you’re in good playoff position heading into this week. Week 11 had some exciting new developments, including the continued breakout of Deebo Samuel and the debut of N’Keal Harry, but let’s not live in the past. Let’s look at what to expect from week 12…
Rookies to Start:
RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 12: @NYJ): As usual, Jacobs is an obvious start this week. He’s not quite a chalk DFS play, but he should be a fine fantasy starter in this one. The Jets have been tough on running backs for a team with just 3 wins. They’ve allowed the 13th fewest RB PPR points per game and rank 2nd in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, but the Raiders should feed Jacobs once again. They’re a 3-point road favorite and should have no problem keeping the game script at least neutral. Jacobs has run for 110 or more yards in 4 of his past 6 games and has multiple receptions in 6 of his last 7.
RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 12: vs. Sea.): Sanders didn’t exactly have the breakout game we all hoped for last weekend with Jordan Howard out, but I like his chances to have that big day this week if Howard sits again. New England is one of the toughest RB matchups in the league because they allow the 2nd lowest RB receiving production in the league. The Seahawks aren’t a complete pushover, allowing the 11th-fewest RB points per game, but they rank just 16th in run defense DVOA and allow the 11th-highest yards per rush attempt. They’ve also allowed 3 backs this year to reach 8+ catches and 60+ receiving yards in a game. If Sanders gets a full workload he should be a safe RB2 with so many backs out of commission this week. If Howard plays, he falls to more of an RB3 or flex option.
WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 12: @Phi.): On the other side of the Philly-Seattle game, DK Metcalf looks poised to have a strong week facing a secondary that allows the 7th-most WR PPR points per game. Metcalf has been playing at a high level lately, and the Seahawks will have Tyler Lockett playing at less than 100%. In his last 4 games, Metcalf has turned 33 targets into 19-259-3. DK is a little pricey to be a sneaky DFS play this week, but he should be a strong WR3 and passable WR3 in a smash spot this week.
Borderline Rookies:
RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 12: vs. Den.): Singletary has become the clear lead back in Buffalo, and in a week with numerous injuries and byes at the top of the position, he has to be in RB2 consideration, but the matchup is a bit dicey this week. The Broncos allow the 12th-fewest RB points per game and haven’t allowed more than 76 rushing yards to an opposing back since week 4 (Marlon Mack hit 76 against them in week 8). They also rank 6th in run defense DVOA. Singletary remains a solid option and a decent bet to reach double-digit PPR points, but his ceiling isn’t exciting this week.
RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 12: vs. NYG): You know the drill with Montgomery. The usage has been there, but the rushing efficiency hasn’t. He’s averaged 4 yards per carry or more in a game just twice this season. Monty has had at least 14 carries and 15 touches in each of the last 4 games, and with Chicago favored by almost a touchdown this week I’d expect that streak to be safe, but he’ll likely finish as a low-end RB2 if he doesn’t get into the end zone. The Giants have given up just 8 RB scores on the year (rushing or receiving). The volume will make Montgomery a passable floor play with the hope for more.
WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 12: vs. GB): There is a lot up in the air this week for the 49ers offense with regard to injuries. Samuel, Emmanuel Sanders, Matt Breida, and George Kittle are all not taking contact yet as of Thursday. The 49ers seem to have found something in Samuel, so he should be a solid WR3 option even in a tough matchup with Green Bay if he plays, but if you have safe options that play earlier in the day it would probably make sense to get them in the lineup rather than wait on Deebo. The Packers allow the 8th-fewest WR points per game.
WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 12: @LAR): Brown is more of a ceiling play than anything this week. The Rams have been ok against opposing wide receivers, limiting them to the 13th-fewest PPR points per game, but Brown is likely to have to tangle with Jalen Ramsey for much of this game. Julio Jones is the only team WR1 to reach 70 yards against the Rams since week 4. Brown’s deep threat skills make him an intriguing upside option, but this week could be a tough one for him if he doesn’t get a deep ball.
WR Terry McLaurin, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Det.): McLaurin got back on track to some degree last week, totaling 69 yards on just 4 targets against the Jets. He also had a 67-yard catch nixed by a penalty. All in all, it was a good sign for McLaurin moving forward. He gets another plus matchup this week against a Lions’ secondary that has been cooked lately, allowing five 80+ yard receiving days and 7 WR touchdowns in their last 5 games. McLaurin is in play as a WR3 in a favorable matchup, but beware there is still a low floor given the shaky QB play he’s getting.
WR Hunter Renfrow, OAK (Wk. 12: @NYJ): Renfrow has fully emerged as a weekly PPR WR3 streamer over the last few weeks. The Raiders have actively looked to involve him in the passing game, and he gets a great matchup this week. In his last 4 games he’s gone 19-250-2 on 22 targets. He gets to face the Jets this week, who allow the 2nd-most WR points per game. I’d expect a double-digit PPR output from Renfrow this week, putting him back in that WR3 range.
TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 12: @Buf.): Fant will be an interesting option at the tail end of the TE1 range this week. With Hunter Henry and Travis Kelce on byes this week, the TE position is a little uglier than usual. The Bills have been as tough a matchup as there is for tight ends this year. They’ve given up just 1 touchdown to the position, allowed only 1 TE to catch more than 4 passes, and only 1 to top 50 receiving yards, and they weren’t the same tight end. Fant has been on a bit of a tear since the Broncos traded Emmanuel Sanders and Jeff Heuerman has been hurt. In the last 3 weeks, Fant has been targeted 23 times and totaled 12-201-1. The usage should be there even in the tough matchup. Fant’s ceiling won’t be great, but he has a reasonable shot at being the second tight end to reach 50 yards against Buffalo.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Daniel Jones, NYG (Wk. 12: @Chi.): Jones has been a road warrior this season, averaging 24.5 fantasy points per road start compared with 11.25 points per home start, but that largely is a result of who his opponents were. His 3 blowup performances came against the defenses that allow the 2nd, 4th and 11th-most points per game to opposing QBs. This week’s opponent allows the 5th-fewest and have allowed just 9 passing scores in 10 games. Jones has turned the ball over 11 times in his last 5 starts. He’ll need rushing production to make him even a worthwhile QB2 play this week in a brutal matchup. If you’re considering Jones in a 1 QB format you’re doing yourself a disservice this week.
QB Ryan Finley, CIN (Wk. 12: vs. Pit.): Finley had a prime opportunity to have a decent game last week and he fell horribly flat, completing just 42% of his passes for 115 yards, zero TDs and a pick. This week he’ll face a Steelers’ defense that has held 5 of their last 7 opponents to fewer than 200 passing yards and forced 16 QB turnovers in those games. If Finley were your last option in a superflex league, I’d consider starting a non-QB instead.
RB Ty Johnson, DET (Wk. 12: @Was.): Johnson returned from his injury last weekend, but he didn’t return to his normal role. I think Bo Scarbrough’s early down role might become the new normal in Detroit rather than a one-game fluke. Both Ty Johnson and JD McKissic are more built to be third down backs rather than early down grinders. Washington has given up the 5th-most rushing yards per game to opposing backs, and I’d look more to the new guy Scarbrough to be the best fantasy option in the Lions’ backfield this week.
RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 12: @NE): It was nice to see Pollard get into the end zone last week and make the most of his opportunities, but the Cowboys enter week 12 as a touchdown underdog and Pollard doesn’t get opportunities when the Cowboys are behind. 37 of his 51 carries this season have come with Dallas in the lead (27 of them with a multiple score lead) and 8 of his 11 targets came with the team ahead as well. This week’s opponent, the Patriots, allow the fewest RB points per game and allow fewer than 30 running back receiving yards per game. There isn’t much upside for Pollard here even if he gets a boost in playing time.
RB Qadree Ollison, ATL (Wk. 12: vs. TB): Ollison found the end zone last week, but it would be tough to roll the dice on a repeat performance. He was the 3rd option in the run game behind Brian Hill and Kenjon Barner, so you’re just hoping for a goal line carry or 2 if you play him. The Bucs allow the 3rd-fewest RB points per game and rank 1st in run defense DVOA. I’d look elsewhere if desperate for a running back this week.
RB Ryquell Armstead, JAX (Wk. 12: @Ten.): It was nice to see Armstead get a couple targets again in the passing game, but he’s still only seeing a handful of snaps and a few touches per game. There isn’t enough production to consider him unless Fournette misses time.
RB Myles Gaskin, MIA (Wk. 12: @Cle.): Gaskin is fighting for scraps in one of the worst offenses in the league. No running back on the team saw more than one carry other than Kalen Ballage despite Ballage being his usual inefficient self. Gaskin has played just 12 snaps in the two weeks he’s been active. Even with Mark Walton being cut from the team, there isn’t a reason to take a flyer on Gaskin.
WR Darius Slayton, NYG (Wk. 12: @Chi.): The last time we saw Slayton he was roasting the Jets for 10-121-2 on 15 targets. It was an impressive performance to be sure, but it’ll be tough for him to produce anywhere close to that this week. Sterling Shepard is practicing in full and is expected to clear the concussion protocol in time to play this week, and Evan Engram has an outside shot at suiting up as well. Shepard was targeted 9 times in each of the 3 games he played with Daniel Jones, including one that Golden Tate was active for. I still think Slayton is in line for a decent workload (5-7 targets), but the Bears allow the 2nd-fewest WR PPR points per game and Slayton is a bit overpriced to be a cheap DFS option ($5,300 on DraftKings). You could play Slayton if you’re desperate, but with Shepard back and the tough matchup I’d look for a safer option.
WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 12: vs. Jax.): I’d love to tell you that Brown is a sneaky option this week, but the Titans’ passing game just hasn’t been trustworthy all year and Jacksonville has allowed just one wide receiver to reach 70 yards in their last 4 games. The return of Corey Davis should also take away some of Brown’s target share. If Brown manages to top 50 yards this week it would be a bit of an upset.
WR Jakobi Meyers, NE (Wk. 12: vs. Dal.): With N’Keal Harry active for the first time last Sunday, Meyers was relegated to the 5th WR role for the Pats. He did still play 19 snaps but managed just 1 catch for 7 yards on 2 targets. As Harry gets more integrated into the offense, Meyers is going to find it harder to make a fantasy impact. Meyers would slide into the sleeper category for this week if Dorsett doesn’t play, but it’s still a low upside spot with the Cowboys allowing the 3rd-fewest WR points per game.
WR Parris Campbell, IND (Wk. 12: @Hou.): It sounds like Campbell may return from his abdominal injury this week, and he would’ve been an interesting sleeper this week if TY Hilton were still out, but Hilton’s return renders Campbell an afterthought for fantasy purposes this week. Monitor his production this week, but he’ll be hard to actually use in any lineups.
TE TJ Hockenson, DET (Wk. 12: @Was.): You might be able to get away with Hockenson as a fill-in tight end this week, but he’s been a disappointment more often than not. Washington was eviscerated by the tight ends of the Jets last week, but prior to last week hadn’t allowed any tight end to reach 60 yards and had only allowed 2 TE scores. Hockenson hasn’t topped 4 catches in any game since week one, and has only reached 50 yards once and has just 1 score since then. There are other tight ends you can find that would be a better option this week.
TE Foster Moreau, OAK (Wk. 12: @NYJ): Moreau continues to get in the end zone every other week, but his usage continues to render him almost unplayable. His snap share has been solid, playing about 40% of the offensive snaps or higher every week, but in the last 4 games he’s totaled just 4-21-2 on 6 targets. If he doesn’t get in the end zone, he’ll give you close to a goose egg, and the Jets have allowed just 2 tight end scores all year.
Rookies on Byes: QB Kyler Murray, ARI, RB Alexander Mattison, MIN, RB Darwin Thompson, KC, WR Andy Isabella, ARI, WR KeeSean Johnson, ARI, WR Bisi Johnson, MIN, WR Mecole Hardman, KC, TE Irv Smith Jr., MIN
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Dwayne Haskins, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Det.): I know…I feel dirty even considering recommending Haskins in a fantasy lineup, but if there was ever a week for him to come through, this is it. The Lions have given up multiple passing TDs in 6 straight games, and 3+ passing scores in 4 of the last 5. They’ve also given up 280+ passing yards in 5 of them and haven’t picked off a pass since week 6. This could be a get right spot for their defense, or it could be Dwayne Haskins’ first useful fantasy week. Haskins has sneaky upside in 2QB leagues as a desperation streamer.
RB Patrick Laird, MIA (Wk. 12: @Cle): You know you’re grasping at straws a bit if you’re considering the backup running back for the Dolphins for your lineup, but you have to figure the Dolphins are only going to put up with Kalen Ballage running for 2 yards per carry for so long before they decide to see what someone else can do. The player with the best chance to be that ‘someone else’ right now is Laird. Myles Gaskin was a more prolific runner in college and was the only one of the pair that was drafted, but the usage on Sunday made it clear that Laird is more likely to benefit than Gaskin if the Dolphins shift some of the work away from Ballage. He out-snapped Gaskin 16-7, and more importantly was the guy on the field during the hurry-up garbage time offense. He totaled 6 catches for 51, and although 4 of them came on the team’s final drive he showed enough that he should get some extended run this week. He was a prolific pass catcher in college with 96 receptions and 5 receiving TDs in his last 2 seasons at Cal, and he should get a chance to showcase that skill more going forward. With the numerous unavailable running backs this week, Laird is an interesting dart throw if you’re desperate for a fill-in RB in PPR leagues.
WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (Wk. 12: @Cin.): I feel like Diontae should be held out of this week’s game just on principle after he suffered a concussion that left him BLEEDING FROM HIS EAR on Thursday, but it sounds like there is a real chance he clears the protocol in time for the game. If he plays, he has to at least be in consideration for a WR3/flex spot with JuJu Smith-Schuster likely out. The Bengals rank 31st in pass defense DVOA, and Johnson would be the default number 1 or 2 receiver along with James Washington. Keep a close eye on the injury report, but Johnson is a sneaky streamer if he plays.
WR Scotty Miller, TB (Wk. 12: @Atl.): Miller jumped onto the fantasy radar with 7 targets in a game back in week 6 with Breshad Perriman sidelined, but he fell back into obscurity for a few weeks once Perriman returned (just 6 total targets in weeks 8, 9 and 10). In week 11 he resurfaced. Miller was on the field for 51% of the offensive snaps without a Perriman injury and managed to post 4-71 on 6 targets. It may feel like chasing points to consider Miller this week, but he gets to face an Atlanta defense that has allowed the 6th-most WR PPR points per game and costs just $100 more than the minimum on DraftKings. The Falcons have struggled to defend the slot this year. 3 of the 4 100-yard receiving days they allowed were to players that play significant snaps in the slot (Michael Thomas, Tyler Lockett and Nelson Agholor). They also gave up 3-72 to Keke Coutee, 6-69 to Larry Fitzgerald and 8-65-1 to TY Hilton.
WR N’Keal Harry, NE (Wk. 12: vs. Dal.): Harry is worth looking at this week if you’re desperate for a WR in deeper leagues, and he’s worth a stash after seeing his usage in his NFL debut. Harry played almost an even split with Mohamed Sanu & Phillip Dorsett behind Julian Edelman and was tied for 3rd on the team with 4 targets. It’s a really encouraging sign to see him so involved right away, and now Sanu is expected to miss multiple weeks with injury and Dorsett is questionable for week 12 with a concussion. The Cowboys are a tough matchup, allowing the 3rd-fewest WR points per game, but there should be plenty of opportunity for Harry if Dorsett is out. At just $3,300 on DraftKings, he’ll be a fun & inexpensive upside option in DFS tournaments. There will be more favorable matchups ahead to use Harry in later this season if he shows out in his extended opportunity this week (Houston, Kansas City, Cincinnati).
WR Kelvin Harmon, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Det.): Keep an eye on Paul Richardson’s status for week 12. With Richardson out last week, Harmon was a near every-down player and found a nice rhythm with Dwayne Haskins. Harmon totaled 5-53 on 6 targets and gets to face a Detroit defense this week that allows the 10th-most PPR points per game to WRs. At just $3,300 on DraftKings, he offers plenty of upside for DFS tournaments if Richardson is out again.
TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 12: vs. Den.): Knox found the end zone for the first time since week 3 last Sunday and played his second highest snap share of the season. The targets left something to be desired, but Knox gets another favorable matchup this week. The tight end position is the best way to attack the Broncos. They’re a top-5 defense against QBs and WRs, and a top-12 defense against RBs. Tight end is the only position they are in the bottom half of the league at defending. Knox makes for a reasonable fill-in this week if you’re struggling for a tight end.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury reports ahead of kickoff Sunday and make sure you don’t end up starting any inactive players. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to reach out via twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
