Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters.
1.38 Yards per Carry
Thursday night's game was another slogfest, and while the games have been more competitive this year than they have in past years, the poor quality of play really shines through. This week, the leading rusher in the game, Adrian Peterson, with 29 yards on 21 carries, had a whopping 1.38 yards per carry. He beat out both of the Seahawks rushers, who finished with 27 yards (Thomas Rawls) and 26 yards (J.D. McKissic). Of course, the big story in this game is the achilles injury that Richard Sherman. Sherman had been previously critical of the NFL regarding Thursday night games, and he was battling this injury all season. The numbers of injuries may not be significantly higher than on Sundays, but it's clear that the quality of play on short rest is affected nearly every single week.
6 Rushing Touchdowns
The Saints set a franchise record with 6 rushing touchdowns on Sunday against the Buffalo Bills. They also rushed for 298 yards on the day behind impressive performances from Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram, who combined for over 50 points. Ingram and Kamara were the 1st and 4th highest scoring fantasy RBs on the week, mixed in with the 3 TD DeMarco Murray and the unknown Austin Ekeler. The Saints improved to 7-2, and it's really surprising that Drew Brees has only thrown for 300+ yards once in those wins, and only twice overall. The Saints run game was really by far the most impressive aspect of this game, peaking with a 10-play 94 yard TD drive that was all rushes of 15 yards or less. The Saints averaged 6.2 yards per carry on the day, just shy of Drew Brees's 7.4 yards per passing attempt.
208 Consecutive Starts
Congrats to Eli Manning, who tied his brother Peyton with 208 consecutive starts on Sunday - good for second on the list behind Brett Favre. This start, like most this year, was very forgettable for Eli. Going in to Sunday's game in San Francisco, this was the first time in 33 years that two teams met this late in the season with only 1 victory between them. Clearly, the stage was set for mediocrity and this game delivered. The Giants managed to make C.J. Beathard look great, putting up the 4th most points this week among QBs - 26.02 points. This was the 49ers first win against a team that wasn't the Rams in 708 days. On the other side, the Giants gave up yet another touchdown to an opposing TE, making it one in every game this season, and this streak goes back into last season. Looks like a good sign for Travis Kelce and the Chiefs against the Giants next week.
297 Passing Yards
It was strange seeing Mitchell Trubisky on the passing leader boards all afternoon and evening. His 297 yards is easily a career high (the previous was last week's 164). He completed 60% of his passes with 21 completions on 35 attempts. One TD and no picks are a good way to show that you can take care of the ball, ok, Coach? I didn't really write about Trubisky for his sake, though congrats to the rookie on a solid outing, but to poke at head coach John Fox. In the 2nd quarter, Fox threw a challenge flag on a play where Benny Cunningham was called out of bounds short of the goal line. Upon review, it was determined that Cunningham did not, in fact, step out of bounds. Great news? Nope, it was then determined that he lost control of the ball before it struck the pylon, thus ruling it a fumble out of the end zone and a touchback for the Packers. This play is kind of a microcosm of Fox and the Bears over the last couple of years. There's always been flashes of good things happening, but it all winds up looking mismanaged and it's never the desired outcome. Here in Chicago, it's pretty clear that he's going to be on the hot seat before too long.
4-60+ Yard TD Passes
If you read this column, you know I'm a sucker for milestones that haven't been reached in a while. On Sunday, Jacoby Brissett threw a pair of 60+ yard touchdowns against the Steelers' formerly league leading passing defense. It's been over 50 years since a Colts QB had 4-60 yard touchdown passes in a single season. Johnny Unitas did it back in 1966, and both Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck were not able to reach that mark, not even with all of the great receivers they have had. Brissett has 4 on the season now, and has improved as the year has gone on and is one of the bright spots in an otherwise dismal season in Indy. The Colts are only 3-7, but did hang in there against a Steelers team that is tied for the best record in the AFC. If the Colts could figure out a run game, they would have something for Andrew Luck to look forward to when he comes back. Right now, Brissett's league leading 35 sacks has to be alarming for a guy who is probably not nearly as mobile. Get well soon, Andrew!
Survivor pools, a concept so simple yet devastatingly difficult. Pick one team a week to win outright and you move on to the next week. The only catch you may only use the team once. For the fourth year in a row I'm trying to turn my 20$ into 10,000. I've put two bullets into the chamber once again to double my chances. Will this be the year I make it at least half way through the season?
Last Season all you had to do was pick the team playing the Browns and you were moving on to the next week. This year I think that team could be the Bills, which is why I am taking the Baltimore Ravens in week one. I think Nathan Peterman has thrown more interceptions than completions in his short NFL career and the Ravens defense should have a field day in this one.
My second pick is going to be the New Orleans Saints. They are one of my top picks for teams to win the Super Bowl this season and in week one they go up against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs will be led by backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick for the first three games of the season because former first overall draft pick Jamis Winston got a little grabby with his uber driver, 0 stars.
Like Peterman, Fitz has at times shown to be an interception machine. The Saints have been building up their defense the last few seasons and are no longer reliant on Drew Brees throwing 4 TDs a game. However I think he does throw for four this game and the Saints run away with an easy one.
Cheers to you all! May your opening NFL weekend be filled with plenty of delicious beer and bottomless nachos. And if you are hung-over on Monday, as Jarvis Landry would say, “Bless em”.
One more week in the books and we had some predictable outcomes - most notably on Monday Night Football with the Chiefs just tearing it up offensively. Hello, Patrick Mahomes! A few rookie wide receiver breakouts (here's looking at you, Justin Jefferson), and injuries are important to keep in mind as we go through another cycle of waiver wire pickups and lineups being set for Week 4. Listen to the Fantasy Finish Line podcast to stay on top of the latest news and analysis - we broadcast live on YouTube (just starting this week, actually!) weekly on Wednesdays at 9pm CT.
Guys that jump out to me this week to overperform expectations: Drew Brees, Joe Mixon, Kenny Golladay, Julian Edelman, Tyler Eifert, and New Orleans (DST).
Pay attention to these rankings throughout the season, as they will continue to evolve based on the latest injury updates, news, and player analysis. Have any specific lineup questions? Feel free to tweet us @drinkfive with any of your questions or comments!
New Orleans Saints
What’s changed since last year? The Saints have remained pretty steady on offense, with a few minor changes. They acquired Jared Cook at TE, currently ADP 72 (TE7). Cook had his two best receiving yard totals the last two years and he’s moving into an offense that once made epic use of a tight end. He’s got some real potential to be a stand out at a position with very little depth across the league. In the backfield, Mark Ingram has left for Baltimore and the Saints picked up Latavius Murray (ADP 81, RB34) as a change of pace back alongside Alvin Kamara. Murray has at least 6 scores in each of the last 4 seasons and even though TDs aren’t a reliable stat, you can be pretty certain that he will be vulturing a few scores from Kamara.
Who is the breakout/3rd year WR on the team? There are two young WRs, both drafted in 2018, that I’m keeping an eye on this year on the Saints. Keith Kirkwood (no ADP) seems like he’s still stuck as the WR4. He had over 16 yards per reception last year and found the end zone twice, but he had only 13 catches in 8 games. Kirkwood will be fighting for snaps and is only relevant in the deepest leagues. The best breakout candidate is Tre’Quan Smith (ADP 189, WR65) and his value is perfect as a sleeper. You can take him at the end of a draft, so the investment is minimal. Smith put up a few big games last season, and he might find more action if there’s an injury on the Saints. Still, I’d rather have the 3rd or 4th option on a great offense as a bye week replacement over a 1st or 2nd option on a bad team.
Who is a sleeper you can draft? I’m tempted to just recommend Tre’Quan Smith here, but honestly, his draft value is probably appropriate for the role that he’s slated for this season. I do think that Ted Ginn (ADP 255, WR85) is a better option as a sleeper. He’s likely to wind up available at the end of even the deepest drafts and is basically the WR2 on an outstanding offense. He was banged up last season, but had 53 catches on 70 targets the year before, so clearly Brees likes to look his way.
What stud can you draft without hesitation? There’s two guys who I’d love to have on my team, though you’re very unlikely to land both of them. Alvin Kamara (ADP 2, RB2) is a stud and has gone before Barkley in most of the drafts that I’ve done so far this year. Kamara has finished as the 4th highest scoring RB in each of the last 2 seasons and is the safest of the top tier RBs, in my opinion. Michael Thomas (ADP 12, WR3) is another stud who you can count on for gaudy numbers. His last two seasons he was 8th in WR points in standard leagues and 6th in points in PPR leagues. It would be nice to see him get into the end zone a bit more, but his 85% catch rate last season was just absurdly good and it’s hard to ask for improvement on that.
Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? Based on his low ADP, Ted Ginn is likely to be an early season waiver pickup. They have three tough matchups to begin the season, vs Texans, @ Rams and @ Seahawks, so the Saints will need to make good use of all of their weapons if they want to win those games.
Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? The Saints traded away a bunch of their picks for 2019 and didn’t select anyone who will be fantasy relevant this season. I would be a terrible host, however, if I didn’t give Shawn a chance to discuss Devine Ozigbo.
Carolina Panthers
What’s changed since last year? The team has parted ways with WR Devin Funchess, who regressed in all statistical categories during a disappointing 2018 campaign. This clears the way for Curtis Samuel to be a regular starter opposite D.J. Moore. More on Samuel in a moment. The Panthers also acquired Chris Hogan, formerly of the Patriots. Hogan basically averages between 55 and 61 targets per year, and that’s over two different teams. I don’t expect much more than that from Hogan, unless there’s injuries ahead of him.
Who is the breakout/3rd year WR on the team? D.J. Moore (ADP 67, WR28) nearly reached our breakout criteria last season, with 788 yards his rookie season. I think Moore can certainly improve on those numbers as the first option in the passing game this year, and he’s being drafted like someone who will start every week on most fantasy teams. I also like third year WR Curtis Samuel (ADP 97, WR40). He’s improved every year so far and with the departure of Funchess, he’s been moved up the depth chart and should start all season. Both of these guys are not going to go under the radar, so if you see them at good value, I suggest drafting them. Most defenses will be very concerned with stopping Christian McCaffrey and Cam Newton, so there should be plenty of opportunity for the WRs to break loose.
Who is a sleeper you can draft? The fantasy relevance on the Panthers isn’t too deep, but I’d argue that Greg Olsen (ADP 144, TE15) is a worthy sleeper pick. Olsen needs to stay healthy to be relevant, of course, but when he is, his talent puts him just a hair behind the tier 1 TEs. If you’re drafting a TE at the end of the draft like this, you’re probably comfortable with streaming TEs. This is your insurance against any injury to Olsen. His ceiling is much higher than anyone being drafted near him, you just need to deal with his floor of “instantly broken foot”.
What stud can you draft without hesitation? Last year’s RB revelation, Christian McCaffrey (ADP 3, RB3), is a lot of people’s top choice this season. In PPR, he finished 10th in 2017 and 2nd in 2018. He’s not missed a game in his career so far (this will be his third season), but his touches did nearly double last year to 327. Usually, RBs can go a couple of years with this kind of workload, so I feel confident that he can remain healthy AND will get a ton of touches this season.
Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? The Panthers DST (ADP 268, DST25) and kicker Graham Gano (ADP 295, K25) are both ranked rather low at their respective positions, but have been traditionally reliable and will definitely be streaming options throughout the season. TE Ian Thomas (ADP 311, TE33) is also a guy to keep an eye on, especially if you wind up drafting Greg Olsen’s broken foot. Thomas looked OK during his rookie season filling in for Olsen, and aside from a 7 game stretch in the middle of the season where he had just 1 catch, he was as good as any other streaming TE option.
Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? The Panthers do not have any rookies at skill positions that are going to be fantasy relevant this season. Will Grier has competed for the backup job behind Cam, but hasn’t impressed anyone. Jordan Scarlett and Elijah Holyfield will compete to be the backup to McCaffrey.
Atlanta Falcons
What’s changed since last year? The Falcons have had a dual backfield attack for the last couple of seasons, but Tevin Coleman has moved out west, leaving Devonta Freeman (ADP 31, RB16) as the main back and Ito Smith (ADP 166, RB56) as the change of pace guy. I suspect that this winds up as more of a Freeman dominated backfield, with Smith getting just 5-8 touches per game at most. The rest of the Falcons offense looks much like it did last season, which finished 6th in total yards, despite (or maybe because of) being 29th in average starting field position.
Who is the breakout/3rd year WR on the team? Well, he’s not going to surprise anyone, as he very nearly reached our breakout threshold last season, but Calvin Ridley (ADP 53, WR22) is a second year WR with all the tools to be a top 10 WR alongside Julio Jones. He’s the younger half of what is arguably one of the best WR combos in the league. With 92 targets last year and 10 TDs, he will certainly see a lot of passes thrown his way this season, though reproducing that touchdown total will be difficult. I like Ridley if he falls to you around the 60th pick – just don’t reach for him expecting him to have double digit touchdowns again.
Who is a sleeper you can draft? I like Austin Hooper (ADP 127, TE12) as a guy who you can pick up way late in the draft and will probably be able to start most of the season. He’s had a solid few years, improving his stats every season as he goes along. Last year, he had 71 receptions on 88 targets – numbers that only a few TEs can count on. I expect him to get at least as much work with Dirk Koetter as the Falcons OC. Koetter is the guy who made OJ Howard a big name in fantasy, and made us all learn just who the heck Cameron Brate is. He even made Marcedes Lewis a pro-bowler back in 2010.
What stud can you draft without hesitation? The same guy who you’ve tried to draft every year from the Atlanta Falcons. It’s Quintorris Lopez (Julio) Jones (ADP 14, WR4), of course! Julio, despite being panned for not making it to the end zone until week 8, finished the season with a league-high 1677 yards and had 8 TDs. He broke the 100 yard mark 10 times last season. And perhaps the best thing to look forward to – the Falcons don’t play outside until November 17th in Charlotte, not a notorious bad weather city. Their only other outdoor games are in San Francisco and Tampa Bay, so I expect to see big things from the Falcons offense this season.
Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? Since the Falcons offense trends towards high volume for a few guys, I would keep an eye on these two players for waiver pickups, especially if guys ahead of them go down. Ito Smith (ADP 166, RB 56) and Mohamed Sanu (ADP 175, WR61) are both likely to not produce enough on their own, but could find themselves with a lot of playing time if there’s injuries ahead of them on the depth chart. If you’re in a deeper league, it’s certainly possible that they are both drafted, so keep an eye out.
Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? The Falcons did not draft any fantasy relevant skill position players this year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers...coming soon.