It is crazy how fast the NFL season goes once you get into it. We are headed into week 5, the last week before bye weeks start. We also have our first London game of the year! I think I speak for every American when I whole heartedly apologize to our British brothers and sisters for sending them the Jets and Falcons. Short note, that game kicks off at 9:30 AM Eastern time Sunday morning. Set your alarms, but more importantly set those fantasy lineups.
Two more wins for the official drinkfive picks brings our season record to 8-4. Seattle rolled in San Francisco and won outright as a road dog and we double dipped with the Ravens in Denver as a dog, or short favorite, and on the money line. Minnesota was a disappointing loss and my hat goes off to the Cleveland Browns holding that offense to 7 points on their own field. Aside from our official picks I had a lot of fun, and wins, with teasers last weekend, so I wanted to start with a little teaser blurb and point on some teams this week to consider throwing in a teaser play.
A teaser is similar to a parlay in the sense that you need more than one win to win the bet. Unlike a parlay though a teaser does change the spread and total. Traditionally teasers are done in 6-point increments. Dogs gain an extra 6 points and favorites subtract 6 points from their number; likewise, with totals. There at a few rules you should always follow when playing teasers. First, never cross the zero! You lose value when you cross the zero with a favorite because you are “giving up” a whole point when the number crosses the zero. The second rule is to cross two key numbers. This works for both favorite and dog teasers. Crossing two key numbers present the best value and highlights a significant advantage to the bettor.
Teaser Teams for Week 5 Include:
Seattle +2.5 to +8.5
Washington +1.5 to +7.5
Minnesota -8.5 to -2.5
Cleveland +2.5 to +8.5
Baltimore -6.5 to -0.5
Buffalo +2.5 to +8.5
Two team teasers pay out roughly -110 to -120 odds so they are similar to a single straight up bet, but you are getting the extra 6 points one way or the other so you’re decreasing the risk. I recommend only focusing on two team teasers to limit the risk associated with needing multiple things to go right.
New York Jets +3.5 vs Atlanta
That’s right, I will be setting my alarm for an early morning sweat on the Jets in the London game. Atlanta opened as 4-point favorites and the line was bet down to 3.5 almost immediately before being bet down further to 3 by mid-week. Now that its rested at 3 I have seen some books bump back up to the 3.5 and I think that is the key number to take if you’re riding with me on the Jets here. This is an ugly game with two bad teams and while the bets are virtually split the Jets are taking in a massive 78% of the money, which signals sharp action. Jets are also a short dog with a line move in their favor, a system that hits at 62% over the last two seasons.
New York Giants +7 at Dallas
Oh man this one is tough to swallow, but its simply too high a number given the situation. First of all, this is a divisional matchup and I am strong believer that division dogs are the best dogs to take. I will repeat this a lot, but teams are built to win their divisions which means they are built to play best against teams in their division. Beyond that they have familiarity because they play each other every season, twice a season. Danny Dimes is also an ATS machine when he’s on the road going 11-4 ATS (73%) for his career. That improves to 10-2 ATS (82%) as a road dog. As of right now this number has been locked at 7, which is a line move in favor of the Giant in spite of only having 22% of the bets. That being said I am going to hold off on locking this in right now until I can see if I can get a 7.5. If it never moves back I will be jumping on it officially at 7 on game day or before it moves lower.
Buffalo +3 at Kansas City
Aside from just being an incredible treat and matchup, this game is strength vs strength. Mahomes is playing out of his mind, even by his standards, with 14 TD passes already on this young season. Behind that phenomenal play the Chiefs have the top DVOA offense in the league. In comes Buffalo, and immediately people are going to be excited about Josh Allen vs Patrick Mahomes, however the Buffalo defense going against the top offensive weapon in the league should be the most polarizing aspect of this game. Buffalo’s defense is #1 in DVOA and it isn’t even close. When you break down the analytics Buffalo has a historic defense though the first 4 weeks. They stop the run (2nd best in the league) and they are the best at defending the pass. Like I said this is strength vs strength and outside of betting I am genuinely excited to watch this game on Sunday night. From a betting perspective this is a Bills play all the way. They are short road dog, 19-6 ATS, a prime-time dog, 7-5 ATS, and Josh Allen is 14-6-2 (70%) as a dog. It gets slightly better with Josh Allen going 11-4-1 (73%) in games with a line of 3 or less. Buffalo has the fire power against a weaker defense to get the lead early, and they have the defense to hold onto it. I am taking the points and putting a little on the money line.
This is going to be a week unlike one we have seen in quite some time!
This pretty much goes against everything I stand for when writing these, but this week, with the fact that EVERY GAME is a close matchup, you can make an argument for every game being on every line!
So, you’re already here, might as well take a look at my argument .
Happy Thanksgiving everyone! I will say that I am thankful for you all that take time every week to check out my football opinion – THANK YOU!
WEEK 12 – HERE WE GO!!
(HOME TEAM IN ALL CAPS)
15 – HOUSTON over New York Jets – Thanksgiving isn’t normally a holiday that includes gifts, but I will gift the Texans a top line spot this week thanks to a home matchup against Zach Wilson.
14 – DALLAS over Las Vegas – As a Raiders fan, I’m thankful the 2022 Draft is defensive heavy as I watch the Raiders draft slot go higher and higher every week.
13 – NEW YORK GIANTS over Philadelphia – As I said before, with the matchups this week, plan on putting a “hunch” pretty high if need be…as seen here.
12 – Buffalo over NEW ORLEANS – The Bills are a lot better than they have shown the last few weeks, look for this to be their comeback.
11 – BALTIMORE over Cleveland – It seems like the negative pressure is getting to Baker Mayfield.
10 – Carolina over MIAMI – While it’s easy to say the Dolphins are Super Bowl contenders after a road win over the Jets (pause for laughter) but I’m not quite ready to jump on that bandwagon just yet.
9 – CINCINATTI over Pittsburgh – The AFC North is pretty tight, but my BOLD PREDICTION is that THE BENGALS WILL WIN THE DIVISION.
8 – INDIANAPOLIS over Tampa Bay – Give Jonathan Taylor the ball and let him do his thing…seems to be working pretty well so far.
7 – SAN FRANCISCO over Minnesota – The Vikings are playing well right now, but the 9ers have quietly been one of the hottest teams in the league right now.
6 – WASHINGTON over Seattle – I still need to see something positive before having any more confidence in the Seahawks.
5 – NEW ENGLAND over Tennessee – After losing at home to the Texans, why would you think the Titans will win this week?
4 – DENVER over Los Angeles Chargers – It seems like the rest of the AFC West have just accepted the fact that the Chiefs will win the division again.
3 – DETROIT over Chicago – Just get through this game, and the Nagy era could be all over Bears fans!
2 – GREEN BAY over Los Angeles Rams – A loss last week is probably the best thing for Aaron Rodgers going into this huge NFC matchup.