Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We're officially past the halfway point of the fantasy regular season. Hopefully you're in good playoff position, but if you aren't, there is still a little time to turn it around. Week 8 won't be an easy one for many of you. There are 6 teams on a bye this week, including several prominent running backs and wide receivers whose absences will have to be survived to get a W. It's possible there might be a rookie who can help you get through, so let's jump right in and talk about the matchups for the rookies this week...
RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (Wk. 8: vs. Phi.): You're not sitting him. Zeke has run for over 130 yards in each of the past 4 games and has had a bye week to rest up and get ready for this one. The Eagles have had a decent run defense on the year, but they rank a middling 13th in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA statistic which measures efficiency, and they've allowed opposing running backs to put up 324 rushing yards in the past 2 games. He's definitely a high-end RB1 again this week, especially with Le'Veon, Gurley, Hyde, and the suddenly incredible Jay Ajayi on bye.
RB Devontae Booker, DEN (Wk. 8: vs. SD): It appeared that Booker had worked his way in to a full timeshare with CJ Anderson last week, but it doesn’t look like that will continue to be the case in week 8. That’s because CJ has suffered an ankle injury that may keep him out a several weeks, leaving all of the work to Booker. If he’s available in your league still, run to your waiver wire to claim him. It’s a ripe matchup for Devontae this week. The Chargers allow the 7th-most RB fantasy points per game, rank 18th in run defense DVOA, and rank 22nd in pass defense DVOA on throws to opposing RBs. With so many top backs out on byes this week, Booker has RB1 upside and should be started with confidence.
WR Will Fuller, HOU (Wk. vs. Det.): Suggesting that you start Fuller requires a bit of leap of faith given his lack of production over the past few weeks, but I'm willing to take that leap. The Lions have allowed a league-worst 117.3 QB rating to opposing passers, and have also allowed 18 TD passes, which is tied for the most in the league. The Lions have allowed 20+ fantasy points (all point totals from ESPN standard scoring) to 5 of the 7 QBs they've faced and 16 each to the other 2. To make matters worse, the Lions are likely going to be missing their top corner Darius Slay. They'll manage to even make Brock Osweiler look good. Fuller should have plenty of opportunity for his best day in weeks. He should be a WR3 this week with upside for more.
QB Dak Prescott, DAL (Wk. 8: vs. Phi.): The Eagles’ pass defense has been fairly stingy so far this year, but they’ve allowed 6 TD passes in their past 3 games. They’ve also allowed 13.3 QB points per game on the road. I know, that isn’t a big number, but it’s much bigger than the 6.7 they’ve allowed at home. Meanwhile, Prescott has been rock steady piloting this balanced offense, tallying at least 17 points in each of the past 5 games. With so many byes this week, Dak is right on borderline of QB1 and QB2 despite a tough paper matchup.
QB Carson Wentz, PHI (Wk. 8: @Dal.): Wentz has been struggling in his past 2 contests, but with 6 byes this week it’s hard to make a case that he’s not usable in 2-QB leagues. The Cowboys have allowed at least 11 QB points and at least 1 TD pass in all 6 games they’ve played this year. They also rank just 22nd in pass defense DVOA. Wentz should be a low-end QB2 with a fairly safe floor but limited upside.
RB Rob Kelley, WAS (Wk. 8: vs. Cin. in London): Kelley salvaged a light workload in week 7 with a short receiving TD, but he should see more volume this week with Matt Jones looking less and less likely to play in London. The matchup isn’t as daunting as the Bengals would have been in past seasons. They rank just 22nd in run defense DVOA and have allowed 78 RB fantasy points in the past 3 weeks to Dallas, New England and Cleveland (26.7 points per game). I would expect Chris Thompson to handle some of the carries as well if Jones is out, and he already handles all of the passing down work, so it won’t quite be a full workload for Kelley. As long as Jones is out, Kelley should still get enough volume to be a borderline RB2 this week.
RB Jordan Howard, CHI (Wk. 8: vs. Min.): Howard’s role is in doubt after an apparent benching last week in the second half of a close game against Green Bay (it was close at halftime). He was out-touched by Ka’Deem Carey 11-7 for the game, but I would expect things to swing back in his favor this week. Howard should lead the backfield in touches on Monday, and he’s playable despite a tough matchup with the Vikings. While Minnesota allows just 67 rushing yards per game to opposing backs, they also allow 53 RB receiving yards per game. Ka’Deem Carey has just 11 career receptions over 3 seasons. Jordan Howard has 14 so far this season. Howard should see the bulk of the receiving work, and thanks to that receiving volume he should be on the RB2/RB3 borderline in a thin week.
WR Michael Thomas, NO (Wk. 8: vs. Sea.): Thomas has been the most productive Saints WR over the past 4 weeks, averaging 6.5 catches for 81 yards per week with 3 TDs in that span. The Seahawks ‘Legion of Boom’ has always been a defense to avoid with fantasy receivers, but they’ve shown some vulnerability of late and the Saints’ passing attack is always deadly at home. Seattle has allowed 28 WR points per game over the past 3 games and Brees has thrown for at least 376 yards in all 3 home games this year. The sledding won’t be easy for Thomas, as Seattle’s best corners play on the perimeter, but there is definitely a chance for success this week. Thomas is should be right on the WR3 borderline.
TE Hunter Henry, SD (Wk. 8: @Den.): I’d probably lean towards sitting Henry this week if he plays, but he certainly had success in this matchup 2 weeks ago (6-83-1). He did enter into the concussion protocol after the game last Sunday, but seems to be trending in the right direction to play in Denver. His playing time will continue to be cut into as Antonio Gates gets healthier, but you have to attack the Broncos with tight ends since their corners are so good. I’d expect the Broncos to make stopping Henry a bigger priority this time around, but he’s still likely a top-15 TE play for the week.
QB Kevin Hogan, CLE (Wk. 8: vs. NYJ): At this point all signs are indicating that Josh McCown will be the man under center for the Browns this weekend, but I would avoid Hogan if he winds up getting the nod. The matchup is a good one, but Hogan was just 12-for-24 passing last week, tallying 100 yards. That equates to a pathetic 4.16 yards per attempt. I wouldn’t expect the Jets to allow him to beat them with his legs the way the Bengals did either. I wouldn’t be able to trust Hogan even in a 2-QB league this week. Luckily, it’s unlikely to matter with McCown due back.
RBs DeAndre Washington & Jalen Richard, OAK (Wk. 8: @TB): Washington has clearly established himself as the number 2 back ahead of Richard after being in a pretty even timeshare previously, but he still only saw 6 touches himself in week 7. Latavius Murray seems to be back in the lead back role after missing a game with injury. Murray dominated the rushing attempts and scored 2 TDs last weekend as Oakland played from comfortably ahead of Jacksonville. The Vegas odds project a closer game this week, so there may be some additional passing work for Washington in a plus matchup, but he'll be tough to trust coming off last week's workload. I'd steer clear.
RB Wendell Smallwood, PHI (Wk. 8: @Dal.): Keep an eye on Smallwood's workload this week. You can't play him this week since he's seen just 4 carries in each of the past 2 games and faces a tough matchup Sunday, but he might start to see a bigger share of the work thanks to some recent fumbling issues for Ryan Mathews. If there is an uptick in usage, Smallwood may be worth a stash going forward.
RB Derrick Henry, TEN (Wk. 8: vs. Jax.): If you need an explanation for why you shouldn't play Derrick Henry, you don't own him on any teams. There's no reason to consider him. If you need a bye fill-in in a deep league, and were considering picking up Henry, think better of it and leave him on the wire.
RB Don Jackson, GB (Wk. 8: @Atl.): It looks like this backfield will belong to Ty Montgomery until James Starks gets healthy enough to take over again. Jackson saw just 2 carries in his debut last Thursday, and left the game with an ankle injury. If the Packers need someone other than Montgomery to handle the between-the-tackles work, my money would be on Knile Davis to see the bulk of those carries, not Jackson.
WR Tajae Sharpe, TEN (Wk. 8: vs. Jax.): Sharpe had his best performance since week one last Sunday, and he totaled just 4 catches and 59 yards. There's nothing to see here. Delanie Walker remains the only pass-catcher to own in Tennessee.
WR Ricardo Louis, CLE (Wk. 8: vs. NYJ): Louis saw just 3 targets last week with Cody Kessler knocked out by a concussion. He saw 9 the previous week. The entire passing attack suffered with Kevin Hogan under center. It looks like it will be Josh McCown at QB this week, but the only pass catcher we know that’s a plus for is Gary Barnidge. Louis has deep speed, and the Jets have proven to be burnable on the deep ball several times this year, but it’ll be hard to count on Louis this week. His production and target share have been inconsistent, and he’s never caught a pass from McCown. With Terrelle Pryor getting healthier and a possible return for Corey Coleman this week, Louis will likely be pushed further down in the pecking order.
WR Chester Rogers, IND (Wk. 8: vs. KC): Rogers fell flat last week in a spot where it looked like he would get plenty of opportunity. With Phillip Dorsett and Dwayne Allen out, he tallied just 2 catches and 30 yards despite Andrew Luck throwing for 353 yards. Dorsett returns this week, and Donte Moncrief is expected back as well. That would drop Rogers to the WR4 role and render him useless for fantasy purposes.
WR Malcolm Mitchell, NE (Wk. 8: @Buf.): Mitchell isn’t quite stash-worthy yet, but it’s worth noting that he played almost as many snaps as Chris Hogan in week 7. He wasn’t targeted on any of them, but it’s only a matter of time before he sees more work. He’s a guy to keep an eye on over the next couple weeks.
RB Dwayne Washington, DET (Wk. 8: @Hou.): Washington looks set to return this week, and he will likely push Zach Zenner to the bench. This situation is still a bit of a mess with 4 backs (3 if Riddick sits again this week), but I buy into Washington’s talent as the early down back. Zenner and Forsett were thoroughly uninspiring last week with Washington and Riddick both sidelined, so I would expect Dwayne to have a role immediately. The Texans have allowed 8 RB rushing scores in 7 games and rank 26th in run defense DVOA. It would be hard to pull the trigger in season long leagues, but Washington should cost the minimum in DFS and could be a decent punt play in tournaments.
RB CJ Prosise, SEA (Wk. 8: @NO): CJ is a potential stash now that the other CJ has been sent packing. Spiller was released, and Prosise should assume the passing down role. There hasn’t been a ton of volume with Christine Michael hogging most of the RB touches, but Prosise did play 16 snaps last week. He only saw 3 touches, but the matchup this week is one that could have a lot more action for the former college WR. The Saints have allowed more RB fantasy points per game than any other team in the league. Obviously it would be hard to trust a guy in your lineup who’s had just 5 touches all year. Like I said, I view him more as a stash than a guy to play this week, but don’t be surprised if he has a decent game out of nowhere.
WR Corey Coleman, CLE (Wk. 8: vs. NYJ): Coleman may finally return this week from a broken hand that has sidelined him for more than a month. His status is still up in the air, but he returns to a plum matchup if he’s able to go. There’s always risk when you play a guy coming off a long layoff (especially when the QB is coming off a layoff as well), but the Jets rank 31st in pass defense DVOA, allow the 4th-most WR fantasy points, and have allowed 9 passes of 40 or more yards (tied for most in the league). One deep ball would make Coleman worthwhile. He could be a usable WR3 if you are in a pinch. Just make sure he’s playing before pulling the trigger.
WR Robby Anderson, NYJ (Wk. 8: @Cle.): Anderson appears to have moved back ahead of Charone Peake and Jalin Marshall in the pecking order in New York. Peake had really started to gain traction with 10 targets in week 6, but that number plummeted to 2 in week 7. Anderson didn’t see many more, with 3 targets, but he made the most of his opportunities by catching all 3 for 41 yards and gaining 30 yards on a rushing attempt. I expect Anderson to be the third WR moving forward. While Brandon Marshall and Quincy Enunwa will see the bulk of the passing targets, Anderson might be worth a desperation play in the deepest of deep leagues this week. The Browns allow the 5th-most WR points, and Enunwa’s target share has been slowly dipping over the past few weeks (11,7,7,5 and 4 targets over past 5 games). There’s a chance Anderson picks up some of that slack if the trend continues.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps you survive the many byes that you may be dealing with this weekend and pull out a win. Keep a close eye on the injury reports to make sure everyone in your lineup is active on game day. Feel free to reach out via twitter if you have any specific questions or just want to yell at me about the things written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s been an interesting season through 10 weeks. The Zeke and Dak show rolled through another one of the better teams in the league last week. CJ Prosise, Rob Kelley, Wendell Smallwood, and Tyreek Hill all made good on increased opportunities, while one of the steadiest rookie performers took a step back (Michael Thomas). Above all else, the national TV games were actually exciting this week (if you don’t count the Thursday game). While it’s been a rough season for some of the highest drafted skill position rookies, one of them did get some good news this week as the Rams are finally making the move to Jared Goff at QB. Most feel that they waited too long to make the switch, but it’ll be fun to watch at any rate. Maybe Paxton Lynch will be next. Let’s jump in and see what we can expect from the rookies in week 11…
RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (Wk. 11: vs. Bal.): The Ravens rank number one in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat which measures efficiency, and have allowed he fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. None of that matters to Zeke. While he likely won’t duplicate last week’s monster game and isn’t exactly a chalk play in DFS this week, no matchup is daunting enough at this point to push him to your bench in season-long leagues.
RB Rob Kelley, WAS (Wk. 11: vs. GB): The Packers’ run defense that was so stout early on this season suddenly has looked vulnerable in recent weeks. They still rank 5th in run defense DVOA, and are in the top-10 in limiting RB fantasy points, but they’ve given up a whopping 77 points to running backs in the past 3 games (all point totals are in ESPN standard scoring). It’s true that 23 of those points were given up in the passing game, where Kelley has little impact, but with the volume he’s seen lately Kelley should have no trouble being a usable RB2 this week.
WR Michael Thomas, NO (Wk. 11: @Car.): I think a bounce-back is in order for Thomas after a rough outing against Denver. He had tallied 50+ yards and/or a TD in every single game prior to week 10, and squared off with the best WR defense in the league last week. The Panthers are in the bottom third of the league vs. wide receivers, and Thomas managed to put up 5-78-1 in the Saints’ first meeting with Carolina. I expect something in that neighborhood again this week and think Thomas is back in play as a solid WR3 Thursday night.
QB Dak Prescott, DAL (Wk. 11: vs. Bal.): Prescott finished as the QB10 against Pittsburgh last week, but the matchup is a little tougher this week. The Ravens rank 6th in pass defense DVOA, and allow the 7th fewest QB fantasy points per game. Dak has shown to have a usable floor, with 17 points or more in 8 straight games, but he’s probably more of a high-end QB2 this week rather than a locked-in QB1.
RB Jordan Howard, CHI (Wk. 11: @NYG): I’m not buying the injury talk around Howard. Coach Fox said he was hurt after he was limited to just 2 carries for 11 yards in the second half last week. Howard rolled to 89 yards in the first half and claimed he didn’t suffer an injury when he was first asked. He’s since changed his tune to the company line, but there’s something more going on here. He is practicing in full this week and should suit up. If he’s the lead back this week as he should be, he’ll be a mid-level RB2 in a bit of difficult matchup, but the bogus injury claim makes me question if he will have his usual role in this one. The uncertainty is enough for me to drop him down a few spots to a borderline RB2/RB3 play.
RB CJ Prosise, SEA (Wk. 11: vs. Phi.): Prosise is a much better option for PPR leagues than standard this week. Thomas Rawls seems all but certain after the release of Christine Michael, and he likely will take a bigger chunk of the workload than Michael did last week. Pete Carroll has already claimed that Rawls will ‘play considerably’ in week 11. With a decreased role and a tougher matchup this week, Prosise will be hard-pressed to duplicate Sunday night’s results. The Eagles allow the 5th-fewest RB points per game. It isn’t all bleak for CJ. The Seahawks offense has been pass-heavy of late, and Prosise is still the best receiving back on the team. Also, the Eagles rank just 24th in pass defense DVOA on throws to RBs. He should be good to go as a PPR flex, but I’d be cautious about using him in that capacity in standard leagues.
RB Kenneth Dixon, BAL (Wk. 11: @Dal.): Dixon was productive on 11 touches last week, and his snap share has been steadily increasing. He’s the superior passing down back of he and Terrance West, and the Cowboys have been allowing 54 receiving yards per game to running backs. West has just 12 catches for 77 yards in 9 games this season. Dixon has caught a pass on 41.7% of the plays in which he’s run a receiving route. There won’t be a ton of rushing volume for the rookie, but he is very much in play as a flex option in PPR leagues.
WR Tyreek Hill, KC (Wk. 11: vs. TB): Hill saw 13(!) targets last week with Jeremy Maclin sidelined, and Maclin hasn’t practiced all week and appears likely to be out again with a groin injury. The Bucs do rank 7th in pass defense DVOA on short passes, which are Hill’s strength, but they also have allowed the 2nd-most WR fantasy points per game. With the volume Hill is likely to see, he should be a solid WR3 option in PPR leagues, and more of a borderline play in standard leagues. He did average just 8.9 yards per catch in week 10.
WR Sterling Shepard, NYG (Wk. 11: vs. Chi.): Shepard still isn’t producing big yardage numbers, but his target share remains steady and he’s found the end zone in each of the last 2 games. The Bears allow the most WR fantasy points per game in the league, so Shepard is a good bet as a floor WR3 again this week, and he gets a slight boost if Victor Cruz sits again (though that seems unlikely).
QB Carson Wentz, PHI (Wk. 11: @Sea.): The Seahawks have definitely seemed more vulnerable against the pass this year, allowing 200+ yards passing in each of their past 6 games, but they’ve allowed multiple passing TDs just once. Wentz has thrown just 2 TDs and turned the ball over 6 times in the past 5 games, and has just 1 game with over 240 yards since their week 4 bye. The Seahawks struggles make them a matchup you don’t have to avoid with good quarterbacks, but not one you should target with mediocre ones. Leave Wentz on the pine.
QB Jared Goff, LA (Wk. 11: vs. Mia.): It’s worth keeping an eye on Goff’s start to see how he fares against a middle-of-the-pack QB defense. We’ve seen other rookies have success right out of the gate in recent years. With that said, there’s no good way to justify starting a guy who has spent the past 10 weeks not being good enough to unseat Case Keenum. He should only be considered in leagues where EVERY starting QB is in a lineup.
RB Wendell Smallwood, PHI (Wk. 11: @Sea.): Smallwood had a surprising productive game in week 10, but he still played fewer snaps than both Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles. He disappeared for weeks after his first productive game this year, with a total of 53 scrimmage yards in the 5 games between his 70-yard outbursts. I’d expect him to fade back to being irrelevant this week.
RB Derrick Henry, TEN (Wk. 11: @Ind.): Henry remains a high-value handcuff for DeMarco Murray who won’t have much standalone value unless something were to happen to the starter. He saw a decent amount of work against Green Bay, but a lot of it was in garbage time with the Titans comfortably ahead. That’s not something you can count on each week with a 5-5 team, and he still only put up 3 fantasy points against the Packers.
RB Paul Perkins, NYG (Wk. 11: vs. Chi.): Perkins still hasn’t moved ahead of Rashad Jennings on the depth chart, and the Bears’ run defense has been better than you’d think. They’ve allowed the 4th fewest RB fantasy points per game, and held 4 backfields to single-digit fantasy totals in their past 6 contests. Considering that Perkins will split that with Jennings, and will take the lesser part of the split, there isn’t a good reason to fire him up this week.
RBs DeAndre Washington & Jalen Richard, OAK (Wk. 11: vs. Hou.): The extreme elevation in Mexico City (it’s more than 2,000 feet higher above sea level than Denver) could cause the Raiders to give Latavius Murray some extra rest and even out the carries a bit between he and his backups, but there is no way to know if it will benefit Richard or Washington more. Playing either of them is playing with fire, and it isn’t something I’d recommend.
WR Corey Coleman, CLE (Wk. 11: vs. Pit.): Coleman is always liable to break out with a big game thanks to his big-play ability, but Kessler still hasn’t shown the arm to throw deep, and only 4 teams have allowed fewer 20+ yard pass plays than the Steelers have. This shapes up as more of a Terrelle Pryor week, as the Steelers rank 29th in pass defense DVOA on throws to WR1’s, and 11th on throws to WR2’s. There is upside, but I would probably steer clear if you have better options.
WR Tyler Boyd, CIN (Wk. 11: vs. Buf.): Boyd has topped 40 yards just twice all year, and only once in the past 7 games. The floor is really low, and there isn’t a ceiling to chase.
Rookies on Byes: RB Devontae Booker, DEN, WR Robby Anderson, NYJ, TE Hunter Henry, SD, TE Austin Hooper, ATL
QB Cody Kessler, CLE (Wk. 11: vs. Pit.): I know, this is an odd call given I just said to sit one of his best wide receivers, but Kessler might make a decent floor QB2 this week. The Steelers have allowed 250+ passing yards in 8 of their 9 games this season, and 14+ QB points in 7 of them. The Browns’ passing game has been a bit of a mess lately, but Kessler should be getting more comfortable as he gains experience and continues to get used to having his full complement of weapons. I like Kessler’s chances at approaching 250 yards and throwing at least one TD…Those are hardly exciting numbers, but there is a chance for more.
RB Dwayne Washington, DET (Wk. 11: vs. Jax.): Washington is the clear number 2 back behind Theo Riddick in Detroit, and the Jaguars have been struggling mightily against the run of late. They’ve allowed over 150 rushing yards in 2 of their past 3 games, and rank 28th in run defense DVOA for the year. If Washington sees 10 or more carries, he may creep into an RB3 day.
WR Will Fuller, HOU (Wk. 11: @Oak.): I know, Fuller isn’t exactly an unknown guy…but after putting up just 49 yards in the last 3 games he played and then sitting out 2 with injury, he’s probably off your radar a little. It doesn’t help that his QB Brock Osweiler is a complete bum. Fuller should return this week, and there are some things to like about this matchup. Although the Raiders haven’t allowed a top-20 receiver since week 5, they’ve allowed a league-high 11 pass plays of 40 or more yards in 9 games. Fuller is certainly the most likely Texan to come up with one of those. He’s a very risky boom-or-bust option. His floor is basically zero, but he could make a big impact with just one deep ball.
WR Tajae Sharpe, TEN (Wk. 11: @Ind.): Sharpe is another guy who, like Fuller, isn’t some new name you haven’t heard. He’s been a disappointment for much of the year despite basically being the Titans’ WR1. The Tennessee offense has gotten on a roll lately, and Sharpe’s numbers have finally started to stabilize. He’s had 58 or more yards in 3 of the past 4 games, and scored his first career TD last weekend. Delanie Walker will likely be the focal point this Sunday, but Sharpe is still playing a starter’s snaps and facing a defense that ranks 30th in pass defense DVOA. He’s actually in play as a WR3 in deep leagues.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with some of your tougher lineup decisions this week. Keep an eye on the injury report with players like Jeremy Maclin, Jordan Howard, Will Fuller, and others who may affect your lineup. Feel free to hit me up on twitter if you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything included above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We made it! Playoff season is finally here. Hopefully you've managed to secure a berth in the postseason and hopefully your team is headed in at full strength. If you are in, the rest of the weeks are do-or-die, so you want to make sure you play your best options. The rookie crop continued to make their presence felt last week, with a couple of new rookies coming up with their first fantasy points of the season. Cody Core caught a 50-yard pass against the Eagles, and Paul Turner filled in admirably for an injured Jordan Matthews on the other side of that game. Core's production likely won't be repeated in the next few weeks, but Turner may be able to make an impact if Matthews sits again. Let's talk about what to expect from Turner as well as the rest of the rookie crew in week 14...
RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (Wk. 14: @NYG): There aren't really any good numbers to back up the call to start Zeke, at least with regard to his opponent. The Giants have a pretty solid run defense that held Elliott to 51 yards on 20 carries in week one, and Zeke may soon be hitting the rookie wall. Still, he leads the league in rushing by over 200 yards and has scored more than 10 fantasy points in every single game this year (All point totals are in ESPN standard scoring). He's a must-start as always.
RB Jordan Howard, CHI (Wk. 14: @Det.): The Lions have been pretty good at slowing down opposing running backs, allowing the 7th-fewest points per game to the position, but some of that is due to teams throwing on them because of their porous secondary. The Lions still rank just 25th in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA stat which measures defensive efficiency. Teams just haven't tried to run on them enough. That shouldn't be a problem for Howard, who has seen at least 15 carries in 8 of the past 9 games. That volume should make him an easy RB2 this week with some upside for more.
WR Malcolm Mitchell, NE (Wk. 14: vs. Bal.): With Gronk (and possibly Danny Amendola) done for the season, Mitchell's role is here to stay. The Ravens have allowed the 9th-most WR points per game thanks to allowing 18 TDs to them, and Mitchell has seen 18 targets in the two recent games the Pats played without Gronkowski. He's averaged nearly 10 yards per target in those games. Mitchell should have WR2 upside this week.
WR Michael Thomas, NO (Wk. 14: @TB): Last week was a disappointing one for Thomas, but he has still put up at least 4 catches and 40 yards in every game this season. The Bucs have been playing improved defense over the past month, but they're far from a matchup to be afraid of. I'd expect the Saints' pass offense to get a little back on track this week and Thomas should be a WR3 with a safe floor and plenty of upside.
QB Dak Prescott, DAL (Wk. 14: @NYG): Dak has scored fewer than 17 points just twice all season: Last Thursday against the Vikings (10 points) and in week one against the Giants (also 10 points). The Giants have remained stingy versus QBs since, allowing the 3rd-fewest QB points per game, but Dak has certainly improved since week one. It's a tough matchup to be sure, so 12-15 points is a reasonable expectation, and if he is able to score any more than 15 he'd likely be a low-end QB1. He's worth consideration as a floor play if you don't like your other options.
RB Rob Kelley, WAS (Wk. 14: @Phi.): Kelley is a touchdown-dependent flex option this week. He's scored in single-digits in 3 of his past 4 games (the 3 he didn't score a TD in), but head coach Jay Gruden did say he'd like to get Kelley more involved. Unless that involves more opportunities in the passing game or Washington playing from ahead instead of behind, I don't know how much more volume there is for him to gain. The Eagles rank 9th in run defense DVOA, but they have allowed a rushing score in 3 straight games. If Kelley manages to find paydirt, he'll return RB2 value. If he doesn't, he'll be closer to a low-end RB3.
RB Devontae Booker, DEN (Wk. 14: @Ten.): Booker has been a let down lately as a starter scoring in the single digits in 4 straight games. The Titans have been decent against the run, allowing under 65 RB rush yards in 6 of the past 8, and Booker hasn't really been supplementing his fantasy days with receiving production. He also may lose a little work to Justin Forsett, who was just signed this week. Forsett had the most success of his career with Gary Kubiak as his offensive coordinator, and he knows the offense. I think Booker has at least one more week of seeing the starter's workload, and that volume should keep him flex-worthy.
RB Kenneth Dixon, BAL (Wk. 14: @NE): Terrance West stepped back into the 1A role in this backfield in week 13, but Dixon still managed to put up 77 scrimmage yards. The Patriots have limited opposing RBs to the 6th-fewest fantasy points per game, but Dixon could have an opportunity to make an impact in the passing game. New England has allowed the 4th-most RB receptions and the 5th-most RB receiving yards. Dixon lacks TD upside, but he's a decent PPR flex option this week.
WR Tyler Boyd, CIN (Wk. 14: @Cle.): Boyd has averaged 5 catches for 60 yards and has scored one TD in 3 games without AJ Green, and this week he gets to face the hapless Browns. 60 yards is likely Boyd's floor in this one, and there is a decent amount of upside for a score. He's a WR3 option in PPR leagues, but a dicier play in standard leagues.
WR Sterling Shepard, NYG (Wk. 14: vs. Dal.): Shepard's low yardage totals have been concerning, but he's found the end zone in 4 of the past 5 games, and his quarterback publicly apologized to him for the lack of targets he got in the other game. The target floor should be safe again, and the Cowboys rank 27th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed over 190 receiving yards to the opposing receivers in 4 straight games. He still needs a TD to hit his ceiling, but won't kill you in PPR if he only hits his floor.
WR Will Fuller, HOU (Wk. 14: @Ind.): Fuller remains a boom-or-bust option as he squares off against the struggling Colts' secondary this weekend. He's shown life with 119 yards in the past 2 games, and the Colts have allowed 10 WR scores in the past 5. Brock Osweiler's poor play will always be a drag on Fuller's outlook, but he's worth considering if you're a big underdog this week. His wheels always make him a threat for a long TD.
TE Hunter Henry, SD (Wk. 14: @Car.): Henry is pretty much just a touchdown dart throw if you use him as a streamer at this point. Antonio Gates has seen the bulk of the targets to Chargers' TEs, and Henry saw just one last Sunday. There is some reason for optimism with Henry since the Panthers allow the most points to TEs in the league, but hopefully you have better options with your season at stake.
QB Carson Wentz, PHI (Wk. 14: vs. Was.): You can make a case to play Wentz in 2 quarterback leagues if you're desperate. Washington has allowed 18+ QB points in 5 straight games after only allowing that amount once in the first 7. Wentz went in the tank for a handful of weeks earlier this season, but he has started to rebound with an average of 14 points per game in his past 3. He's still hard to trust with your season on the line, but he has come back from the depths of the unusable.
QB Jared Goff, LA (Wk. 14: vs. Atl.): The Falcons allow the most QB points per game in the league, and just recently lost their top corner Desmond Trufant for the season, and I still can't recommend that you start Goff. The Rams' passing offense has been abysmal all year, and half of the touchdown passes that the Falcons have allowed were in the first 4 weeks of the season. Goff has played just one decent half and scored 28 fantasy points through 3 starts. If he is able to crack double-digits it will be a successful day.
QB Cody Kessler, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Cin.): It looks like it will actually be Robert Griffin III under center this week, and it's probably the right call for the Brownies. Kessler just doesn't have the arm strength to be viewed as Cleveland's QB of the future, so they may as well use these final weeks to see what Griffin still has left.
RB Paul Perkins, NYG (Wk. 14: vs. Dal.): The Cowboys allow the fewest rushing attempts in the league, and the looming return of Shane Vereen would cut into his pass-catching chances. Even if Vereen isn't back yet, Perkins would still be a long shot for 10 touches.
RB Wendell Smallwood, PHI (Wk. 14: vs. Was.): There is some sleeper appeal for Smallwood. Washington allows the 4th-most RB points per game and ranks 30th in run defense DVOA, but Ryan Mathews is set to return to practice on Wednesday. Wendell put up just 56 yards on 17 carries in 2 games with Mathews out, so to expect much improvement with Mathews back would be a mistake.
WR Tyreek Hill, KC (Wk. 14: vs. Oak.): Jeremy Maclin is expected to practice in full this week, which means Hill won't be funneled targets the way he has been. He's averaging just 9.6 yards per catch on the season, so he needs either volume or a touchdown to be useful. The volume will certainly drop this week. He's a TD dart throw against the Raiders.
WR Tajae Sharpe, TEN (Wk. 14: vs. Den.): The Broncos allow the fewest points in the league to opposing WRs, and Sharpe's two double-digit fantasy outputs came against teams allowing the 4th-most (Green Bay) and 14th-most (Indy) points to the position. The increased volume Sharpe has seen lately has been promising, but he's a wide receiver to avoid this week.
QB Paxton Lynch, DEN (Wk. 14: @Ten.): Lynch has struggled in his opportunities to start, but he should actually be a decent QB2 streamer this week if Siemian remains sidelined. The Titans' defense has allowed 18+ fantasy points to QBs in 7 straight games and allowed multiple TD passes in each as well. Despite his struggles, I like Lynch's chances of taking advantage of a plus matchup if he gets the opportunity. The Titans did get shredded by Matt Barkley the week before their bye.
RB Derrick Henry, TEN (Wk. 14: vs. Den.): This is a great opportunity for the Titans to play some smashmouth football and run it a ton. The Broncos are the stingiest pass defense in the league in terms of yards, TDs, passer rating, and pass defense DVOA, but they rank just 26th in run defense DVOA. If the Titans are smart, they'll use a pretty healthy mix of both DeMarco Murray and Henry. The Heisman winner is mostly only in play for DFS tournaments as a punt play, but don't be surprised if he has a bigger day than expected, and you should absolutely own him if you own Murray.
RB Jalen Richard, OAK (Wk. 14: @KC): Richard remains a handcuff for Latavius Murray, and he has weekly touchdown upside with DeAndre Washington vanquished to the land of healthy scratch each gameday. The Chiefs are one of 5 teams that have allowed 4 or more receiving TDs to running backs, and Murray has zero TD catches on the year.
WR Corey Coleman, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Cin.): Coleman will be a volatile option with RG3 under center this week. Griffin did show the ability to throw deep during the preseason, but didn't make it far enough into the regular season to be able to showcase that again. Coleman has averaged nearly 9 targets per game since returning from a broken hand, but who knows how many he'll see with RG3 inserted. Like Will Fuller, Coleman is an interesting option if you are a big underdog this week because his talent gives him really nice upside.
WR Robby Anderson, NYJ (Wk. 14: @SF): Robby has been the most targeted Jets' WR with Bryce Petty at quarterback, and Petty was just announced as the starter for the remainder of the season. Anderson faces off with the 49ers this week, and San Francisco is allowing the 2nd-most points per game to opposing WRs. Efficiency hasn't been a strong suit for Anderson, with just 4 catches on 12 targets last week, but he did score his first TD and should be a decent WR3 streamer in deep leagues.
WR Paul Turner, PHI (Wk. 14: vs. Was.): Turner is only in play if Jordan Matthews sits again. Washington ranks 20th in pass defense DVOA, and Turner hauled in 6 catches for 80 yards on 8 targets last week with Matthews out. He's only in play for really deep leagues even if J-Matt does sit.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your tougher lineup decisions and helps you advance to the next round. Be vigilant about checking the injury report througout the week to make sure your players are all going to suit up, and that the guys ahead of them on the depth chart don't suit up by surprise. Feel free to hit me up on twitter if you have any specific questions or just want to yell at me about anything written above. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! More than likely, your fantasy season is over at this point, but there are still some leagues out there with playoffs that run through week 17, or have a 2-week championship matchup, and there are certainly still DFS games this week. Week 17 is always a tricky one because several teams have nothing to gain by playing their starters, and automatically playing your studs might not always make sense. With that in mind, this week's report will have a little bit of a different layout. I'll take a detailed look at what to do with the rookies who should have their normal role this week, I'll touch quickly on some rookies who should be avoided due to rest and some who should just be avoided in general, and then I'll look at a few less heralded rooks who could make good cheap DFS options this week. Let's take a look...
QB Carson Wentz, PHI (Wk. 17: vs. Dal.): Wentz has been a pretty poor fantasy option for much of the season, putting up a pretty weak 8-14 TD-INT ratio over the past 12 games. Still, he won't have much of a running game to work with since Ryan Mathews and Kenjon Barner were just added to IR this week, so he should be throwing plenty. The Cowboys rank just 19th in Football Outsiders' pass defense DVOA stat, which measures efficiency, and they are likely to be sitting many of their starters. Wentz has a chance at a nice day and could be a pretty good QB2 if you are desperate to replace Dak, Eli, or Big Ben.
RB Jordan Howard, CHI (Wk. 17: @Min.): Howard's put up 99 scrimmage yards or more in 8 straight contests, and he's run for a robust 6.15 yards per carry over the past 3 weeks. There is no reason the Bears won't lean on him again this week, and he should have success. The Vikings rank a middling 15th in run defense DVOA and let Howard go off for 202 scrimmage yards and a TD in the first meeting. Howard should be trusted once again.
RB Rob Kelley, WAS (Wk. 17: vs. NYG): This is a must-win game for Washington and the Giants will be sitting a lot of their starters. New York ranks a daunting 4th in run defense DVOA this year, but I would throw that out the window this week. Kelley will almost certainly see at least 15 carries and is a good bet for a TD. It also helps that he's been more involved in the passing game lately, with twice as many catches in the past 3 weeks (8) as he had in the rest of the season prior. With several stud backs resting, Kelley could be close to an RB1 this week.
RB Kenneth Dixon, BAL (Wk. 17: @Cin.): Dixon's outlook this week is about the same as it's been for much of the past month or 2. He's likely to end up in the 6-8 point range barring an unexpected touchdown (all point totals are in ESPN standard scoring) That range is usable, but probably not what you would hope for. He's been running pretty well lately, but he's still splitting work with Terrance West and the Bengals have allowed the 4th-fewest RB points per game over the past 5 weeks. He’s in play as a flex option, but not much more.
RB Devontae Booker, DEN (Wk. 17: vs. Oak.): Booker did finally get back to over 50% of the snaps played last week and saw 10 targets in the passing game, but he's totaled just 115 scrimmage yards in 3 games since the team signed Justin Forsett. The biggest reason Devontae received so many targets last week was because the team played from multiple scores down. I wouldn't expect that to happen against the Matt McGloin-led Raiders, and Oakland has allowed just 10 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs in the past 3 weeks. Booker is just too hard to trust in anything but really deep leagues while he’s splitting work with Forsett in one of the least effective rushing attacks in the league.
WR Michael Thomas, NO (Wk. 17: @Atl): There is no reason for the Saints to hold back this week. Thomas has seen at least 5 targets and at least 40 receiving yards in every game he’s played this year, and he gets a plus matchup with Atlanta. The Falcons rank 24th in pass defense DVOA and haven’t faced a competent passing attack in a month (Last 3 opponents: LA, SF, Carolina). Thomas should be a strong option this week and a high-floor WR2.
WR Tyreek Hill, KC (Wk. 17: @SD): Hill should be a boom-or-bust option again this week thanks to limited volume, but he’s boomed in 4 of his last 5 games, including the last two in which he didn’t catch a single pass. SD isn’t a great matchup for him…they allow the 8th-fewest WR fantasy points and have allowed just 7 pass plays of 40+ yards and just one run of 40+ on the year. Hill has thrived on long TDs. More than half of his rushing and receiving scores have gone for 34 yards or more, but he’s also had two strong performances against the Broncos, who are the #1 defense in the league vs. WRs. The Chiefs need to win and Hill is their best playmaker, so he could be worth a roll of the dice yet again. Just know there is some risk as always.
WR Sterling Shepard, NYG (Wk. 17: @Was.): Shepard could be a little dicey this week with the Giants locked into the 5-seed in the NFC, but they typically only dress 5 or 6 WRs, and they play more 3-WR sets than any team in the league. I think the Giants are more likely to rest OBJ and Victor Cruz than Shepard. I can’t imagine that the Giants would spend the majority of the game with Tavarres King, Dwayne Harris and Roger Lewis as their receivers in 3-wide sets. Sterling has found the end zone in 6 of the last 8 games and put up his highest yardage total since week 3 in his last one. He’s right on the WR3 borderline for me this week.
WR Corey Coleman, CLE (Wk. 17: @Pit.): I’d probably avoid Coleman this week, but I mention him here because he should still see some volume. His two biggest yardage totals of the season were in weeks 1 & 2, and he’s averaged just 28.6 yards per game since returning from a broken hand in week 9. Still, he’s seen at least 4 targets in each game since his return (with an average of 7.3 per game), so he remains in play as a blindfolded dart throw in DFS.
TE Hunter Henry, SD (Wk. 17: vs. KC): Henry’s dynasty outlook may have taken a hit this week when Antonio Gates hinted that he’s likely to return next season, but his outlook for week 17 might have gotten a little better. Gates needs just 2 TDs to set the NFL record for receiving touchdowns by a tight end, and the Chargers were likely to try to get him those scores if this was going to be his last game. Since it likely isn’t, there is a chance Henry gets some of the targets in the red zone. He’s still not much more than a TD dart throw against a defense that has allowed just 2 TE scores all year, but crazy things happen in week 17.
QB Dak Prescott, DAL (Wk. 17: @Phi.): The Cowboys have nothing to play for this week with the top seed in the NFC sewn up. Dak will likely play a few series to keep fresh, but with the news that Mark Sanchez will be active, I would expect the Sanchize to play more than half of the game.
RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (Wk. 17: @Phi.): Like Dak, Zeke should also have a short day. If you have Zeke, pick up Darren McFadden if he's available. He should play the majority of the snaps.
RB Paul Perkins, NYG (Wk. 17: @Was.): Perkins has become a pretty big part of the Giants' offense of late with 41 carries in the past 3 games. I'm not sure how the G-Men will divvy up the backfield touches this week, but my best guess is they will use a ton of Bobby Rainey to keep Perkins and Rashad Jennings healthy.
WR Will Fuller, HOU (Wk. 17: @Ten.): You could argue that the Texans will want their receivers to work on their rapport and timing with new starting QB Tom Savage, but I think they will want to make sure Fuller is healthy. Bill O'Brien on Thursday called Fuller one of the team's best route runners, and he mentioned that injuries are what sapped his productivity. With that in mind and nothing to gain with a win this week, I'd expect a limited amount of Fuller to ensure he's at full strength for the Wild Card weekend.
QB Jared Goff, LA (Wk. 17: vs. Ari.): You know better than to play Goff.
QB Cody Kessler, CLE (Wk. 17: @Pit.): It was looking as though Kessler would get the nod, but RG3 was cleared from the concussion he suffered last weekend and will get the start.
QB Paxton Lynch, DEN (Wk. 17: vs. Oak.): The Broncos announced that both Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch would see some action in week 17, which makes both useless in DFS or any other formats.
RB Dwayne Washington, DET (Wk. 17: vs. GB): It looks like Theo Riddick is likely to sit again this week, but Dwayne has had just one useful week since scoring a TD in week one. It's ugly out there at RB this week, but there are better risks to take than expecting Washington to put up his best game of the year.
RB Derrick Henry, TEN (Wk. 17: vs. Hou.): With Matt Cassel under center, the Texans should stack the box to stop the run, and there is no telling if Henry will see extra work now that the Titans are out of the playoff hunt. He played just 24% of the snaps last week and saw just 4 carries, and he also carries a price tag of $4,900 in DraftKings this week, which just isn't worth the risk.
RB Kenyan Drake, MIA (Wk. 17: vs. NE): Drake put up 56 yards and a TD last weekend, but he did so on just 4 touches, and the Dolphins still have the ability to move up to the 5-seed in the AFC. That would mean they’d draw the Texans rather than the Steelers, so they should be trying to win. That also means they’ll use a lot of Jay Ajayi. Don't chase last week's points, despite the OC’s comments that Drake “warrants more in the gameplan.”
WR Tyler Boyd, CIN (Wk. 17: vs. Bal.): Boyd’s production has dropped off precipitously after a quick spike when AJ Green got hurt. He averaged a line of 5-60.7-0.3 on 7.7 targets per game in the first 3 games that Green was out, but that has dropped to 3.3-29-0 on 4.3 targets in the 3 games since. There's been no sign that his target share will suddenly go back up this week.
WR Tajae Sharpe, TEN (Wk. 17: vs. Hou.): Matt Cassel should sap any upside that Sharpe has in week 17. He did see 8 targets last week and still posted just a 3-43 line. You should probably steer clear.
WR Malcolm Mitchell, NE (Wk. 17: @Mia.): Mitchell has yet to practice yet this week after banging up his knee against the Jets last weekend. Even if he is able to suit up I'd expect him to play limited snaps. Look for Michael Floyd to get his first extended look as a Patriot. As of Friday, Mitchell is listed as doubtful.
WR Robby Anderson, NYJ (Wk. 17: vs. Buf.): With Bryce Petty on IR, Anderson is pretty much unusable. A huge portion of his production came with Petty at the helm. Charone Peake may have some extra upside this week, but the Jets' passing attack is one to avoid in general in week 17.
TE Austin Hooper, ATL (Wk. 17: vs. NO): Hooper is banged up this week and not practicing as of Thursday. It's a plus matchup, but I'd be surprised if Hooper does much this week. The Falcons signed an extra tight end off their practice squad this week, which doesn't bode well for Hooper's status.
TE Tyler Higbee, LA (Wk. 17: vs. Ari.): Higbee scored a TD last week, but he's put up just 85 yards on 29 targets for the season. Over the past few weeks, his role has been increasing, but it's led to 6 catches for 44 yards and a TD on 11 targets in the past 4 games.
RBs DeAndre Washingon & Jalen Richard, OAK (Wk. 17: @Den.): The best way to attack the Broncos’ defense is with the rushing attack, and Latavius Murray has seen his workload shrink quickly in the past couple of weeks with Washington active again. Denver ranks first in pass defense DVOA, but 26th in run defense DVOA. In week 16, Murray played just 41% of the offensive snaps and handled 17 touches while Washington (33%, 13) and Richard (20%, 9) split the rest and both of them turned in a productive day. The pair of backups combined for 196 scrimmage yards and 3 touchdowns. Each will cost less than $4,000 in DraftKings while Murray will cost $5,200. I’d rather take my chances with one of the backups than try Latavius in DFS this week. I’d lean toward Washington with Richard limited at practice this week with a shoulder injury.
RB Alex Collins, SEA (Wk. 17: @SF): It looks like Thomas Rawls will play this week, but I’d be surprised if he gets more carries than Collins as he fights through a shoulder injury. The Seahawks will need a healthy Rawls if they want to win in the playoffs, and they should be able to beat the 49ers and still limit his workload. The 49ers rank a miserable 29th in run defense DVOA, and have allowed 4 more RB fantasy points per game than any other team this year. Collins should see a nice share of the workload, and costs a reasonable $4,600 on DraftKings. He should be a popular play in GPP tournaments, and for good reason.
WR Cody Core, CIN (Wk. 17: vs. Bal.): Core costs the minimum in DraftKings this week, and he was targeted a whopping 14 times last week with AJ Green and Tyler Eifert out. He’s also started in each of the past 3 games. The final stat line wasn’t great last week with 8-39-0 on those 14 targets, but the PPR scoring format of DraftKings makes all those targets valuable. He should be heavily targeted again this week, and the Ravens allow the 9th-most WR fantasy points per game. He’s an enticing punt option this week.
WR Roger Lewis, NYG (Wk. 17: @Was.): Like Core, Lewis costs the minimum in DraftKings, and as mentioned above, the Giants should be resting their starters quite a bit. Josh Johnson will likely play some at QB, and he and Lewis should show a 2nd team connection. Washington is a 7.5-point favorite, so the Giants should be throwing a lot. Washington also ranks just 25th in pass defense DVOA. The volume is less certain with Lewis than it is with Core, but his targets should be farther downfield as well. Both are interesting options in GPP contests.
WR Geronimo Allison, GB (Wk. 17: @Det.): This will undoubtedly feel like chasing last week’s production after Allison put up 4-66 on 7 targets, but Allison will have an opportunity again if Randall Cobb is out Sunday night. The Lions are best attacked through the air, and they rank dead last in pass defense DVOA on throws to WRs other than the number 1 & 2 on the opposing team. Darius Slay should return and would be matched up with Jordy Nelson, which could create additional looks for Davante Adams and Allison. Adams has been more productive this year, but he costs $5,700 in DraftKings while Allison costs just $3,000. You can avoid Geronimo if Randall Cobb plays, but he’ll have great upside for a minimum priced option if Cobb sits again.
That's all I've got for this season. Hopefully the breakdowns I've posted weekly have helped you get through some tough rookie decisions throughout the year and helped you to victory more often than not. Feel free to give me a hard time about anything written above via twitter (@Shawn_Foss). Week 17 is always wacky, so I expect to be wrong about more than I get right. Thanks for reading, and as always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.