Through 3 weeks we are 6-3 on the official drinkfive picks! Insert the “Its not much but its honest work” meme. We are turning a small profit and I am looking forward to building on it in week 4! Underdogs and unders have been extremely profitable through the first 3 weeks. Dogs are 30-18 ATS (62.5%) with away dogs seeing the best profitability at 19-10 ATS (65.52%). Unders have also been incredibly profitable with a 28-20 record to the under (58.3%). There are a couple of things I want to mention related to this incredible start; first, when betting underdogs, in particular short dogs, I advise putting a small portion of your bankroll on the money line. This is a great way to build extra bankroll and take advantage of plus money bets. Second, sports betting is not easy and trends are great for extra edges, but we have to be wary of regression. This is why sticking to a strategy is important. You’re going to ride some highs and lows, but trying to play both sides of the market is a recipe for disaster. I’m seeing some incredible value on dogs again this week so without further a due…
Seattle +3 at San Francisco:
This is a buy-low spot on Seattle as they are coming off of two losses in a row. Admittedly this line is a bit chalky with 72% of the bets and 77% of the money coming in on the Seahawks. I have this at +3.5 and my recommendation is to hold off and shop around for the hook if you can find it. That being said I am making it an official play +3. This is also a great spot to throw a bit of money on the money line currently at +130. First and foremost, this is a division game and I love taking division dogs. Division games provide an extra edge for underdogs because the teams are very familiar with one another, and GM’s build their teams to win divisions so they match up well regardless of record. I am betting on Russell Wilson in this one! He is 27-10 ATS (70%) as a road dog and 26-14-4 ATS (65%) off a loss. The extra edge is that he has never lost 3 games in a row in his entire career. I simply can’t pass up taking Wilson in a rare underdog spot.
Baltimore +1/ML at Denver:
Hopefully, you jumped on this one earlier in the week. I like Baltimore to win this game regardless, but the line is flipping and the Ravens will be the favorite before kickoff. This was an early week bet for me at Baltimore +1.5 and a little on the money line as well. I still like it here with Baltimore still showing as a slight dog. A small tidbit to mention when betting on this game. If the line flips and the spread is anything between a PK and -1.5 I would recommend looking at the money line instead of the spread. Even if that means paying a little more juice it protects you from losing the bet completely if Baltimore wins by 1. This is another chalky dog play with 74% of the bets and 80% of the money coming in on the Ravens. Ultimately, I think the Ravens were teased up when they opened as dogs, and are probably in a lot of money line parlays too. This explains the heavy action, but regardless I like other edges here outside of what the market is showing is the public play. Denver has been playing very well and Teddy Bridgewater has looked incredible, which is why now is the time to sell high on them. The Broncos look good, but then again look at the teams they have played; Giants, Jags, and Jets. The Ravens are a big step up in class compared to those teams. Harbaugh is another edge I like in this game. He is 58% as a road dog, including 4-1 with Lamar Jackson, but beyond that, he is significantly better than his counterpart Vic Fangio which could be the difference in what bookmakers are saying will be a coin flip game.
Minnesota +2 vs Cleveland:
I am back in my contrarian comfort zone with this pick. Minnesota is only getting 38% of the bets and 30% of the money this week when they play host to the Cleveland Browns. While Cleveland has the better record, they have not necessarily been the more impressive team. Sure, week 1 was a fight for the ages and for 3 quarters the Browns looks good, but ultimately, they came up short against Elite talent again. They followed up that disappointing loss with an uninspiring win against Houston and a drumming of the Chicago Bears; two severely bad teams that don’t earn them any merit from me. On the other hand, the Vikings are literally only a couple of plays away from starting 3-0. An OT loss to Cincinnati with a questionable fumble call and a missed field goal against Arizona in week 2. The fact that this game is in Minnesota makes all the difference. Mike Zimmer is 35-21-1 ATS (62.5%) at home and 9-4 ATS (69.2%) as a home dog. Kirk Cousins has actually been playing very well and Dalvin Cook is looking to be back from injury. I don’t have faith that the Cleveland defense is complete enough to cover all the ways the Vikings can attack them. The only way I see this going south for the Vikings is if Cleveland jumps out to a big early lead.
It is crazy how fast the NFL season goes once you get into it. We are headed into week 5, the last week before bye weeks start. We also have our first London game of the year! I think I speak for every American when I whole heartedly apologize to our British brothers and sisters for sending them the Jets and Falcons. Short note, that game kicks off at 9:30 AM Eastern time Sunday morning. Set your alarms, but more importantly set those fantasy lineups.
Two more wins for the official drinkfive picks brings our season record to 8-4. Seattle rolled in San Francisco and won outright as a road dog and we double dipped with the Ravens in Denver as a dog, or short favorite, and on the money line. Minnesota was a disappointing loss and my hat goes off to the Cleveland Browns holding that offense to 7 points on their own field. Aside from our official picks I had a lot of fun, and wins, with teasers last weekend, so I wanted to start with a little teaser blurb and point on some teams this week to consider throwing in a teaser play.
A teaser is similar to a parlay in the sense that you need more than one win to win the bet. Unlike a parlay though a teaser does change the spread and total. Traditionally teasers are done in 6-point increments. Dogs gain an extra 6 points and favorites subtract 6 points from their number; likewise, with totals. There at a few rules you should always follow when playing teasers. First, never cross the zero! You lose value when you cross the zero with a favorite because you are “giving up” a whole point when the number crosses the zero. The second rule is to cross two key numbers. This works for both favorite and dog teasers. Crossing two key numbers present the best value and highlights a significant advantage to the bettor.
Teaser Teams for Week 5 Include:
Seattle +2.5 to +8.5
Washington +1.5 to +7.5
Minnesota -8.5 to -2.5
Cleveland +2.5 to +8.5
Baltimore -6.5 to -0.5
Buffalo +2.5 to +8.5
Two team teasers pay out roughly -110 to -120 odds so they are similar to a single straight up bet, but you are getting the extra 6 points one way or the other so you’re decreasing the risk. I recommend only focusing on two team teasers to limit the risk associated with needing multiple things to go right.
New York Jets +3.5 vs Atlanta
That’s right, I will be setting my alarm for an early morning sweat on the Jets in the London game. Atlanta opened as 4-point favorites and the line was bet down to 3.5 almost immediately before being bet down further to 3 by mid-week. Now that its rested at 3 I have seen some books bump back up to the 3.5 and I think that is the key number to take if you’re riding with me on the Jets here. This is an ugly game with two bad teams and while the bets are virtually split the Jets are taking in a massive 78% of the money, which signals sharp action. Jets are also a short dog with a line move in their favor, a system that hits at 62% over the last two seasons.
New York Giants +7 at Dallas
Oh man this one is tough to swallow, but its simply too high a number given the situation. First of all, this is a divisional matchup and I am strong believer that division dogs are the best dogs to take. I will repeat this a lot, but teams are built to win their divisions which means they are built to play best against teams in their division. Beyond that they have familiarity because they play each other every season, twice a season. Danny Dimes is also an ATS machine when he’s on the road going 11-4 ATS (73%) for his career. That improves to 10-2 ATS (82%) as a road dog. As of right now this number has been locked at 7, which is a line move in favor of the Giant in spite of only having 22% of the bets. That being said I am going to hold off on locking this in right now until I can see if I can get a 7.5. If it never moves back I will be jumping on it officially at 7 on game day or before it moves lower.
Buffalo +3 at Kansas City
Aside from just being an incredible treat and matchup, this game is strength vs strength. Mahomes is playing out of his mind, even by his standards, with 14 TD passes already on this young season. Behind that phenomenal play the Chiefs have the top DVOA offense in the league. In comes Buffalo, and immediately people are going to be excited about Josh Allen vs Patrick Mahomes, however the Buffalo defense going against the top offensive weapon in the league should be the most polarizing aspect of this game. Buffalo’s defense is #1 in DVOA and it isn’t even close. When you break down the analytics Buffalo has a historic defense though the first 4 weeks. They stop the run (2nd best in the league) and they are the best at defending the pass. Like I said this is strength vs strength and outside of betting I am genuinely excited to watch this game on Sunday night. From a betting perspective this is a Bills play all the way. They are short road dog, 19-6 ATS, a prime-time dog, 7-5 ATS, and Josh Allen is 14-6-2 (70%) as a dog. It gets slightly better with Josh Allen going 11-4-1 (73%) in games with a line of 3 or less. Buffalo has the fire power against a weaker defense to get the lead early, and they have the defense to hold onto it. I am taking the points and putting a little on the money line.
What an incredible time to be alive! The sports betting business is booming as more and more states pass legislation to legalize and collect, on the once-taboo activity. Whether or not you’re new to sports betting or you’ve had means of betting for some time now, the fact remains that every bettor needs to have a strategy to have any shot at being successful. In that last couple of years, I would say that I transitioned from a true average Joe bettor to a more informed and strategic amateur bettor. The first step in the progression for me was identifying a strategy and sticking to it.
I don’t make a living betting on sports. As much as I would love to eventually learn to handicap and create my own power ratings, it’s not something that is in the cards for me right now. I would venture to guess that a majority of sports bettors feel this way. So what’s the next best thing? Start your sports betting fundamentals with a contrarian strategy.
A contrarian is simply someone who “opposes or rejects popular opinion”. In sports betting this is also referred to as fading the public. I’ve been the public. The guy betting on my basic instinct and bias. Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees on Monday Night Football, how can I not take the over! Of course, I would look at the line, but my bias placed the bet before I had even grabbed my phone. Sportsbooks and oddsmakers are very aware of public bias and they build this into their lines. Contrarian bettors take advantage of this to get more value in our picks.
Identifying public bias and understanding how the books play into this is the most important tenet of being a contrarian bettor. Favorites are a staple of the public bettors. The books build this bias into their numbers. So, let’s say a book runs their power rankings and it shows that Seattle should be a 4-point favorite, they will shade the line towards Seattle and make them, for sake of argument, 4.5 or 5 point favorites knowing the public is more often than not taking them anyway. Immediately out of the gate a contrarian bettor is getting a half-point to full point value simply because of public betting bias. The same is true for home teams. So, using the same example from above, Seattle is a 5-point favorite with the public bias computed in, if they are at home you would see this line increase even more making Seattle -8 or perhaps even higher. That is not to say that there are not advantages to playing at home, but rather that the bookmakers already take this into account when setting the number and essentially protect against the home field advantage bias. A team like Seattle could see a shade towards their home field advantage because it’s widely known that Seattle is a tough stadium to play in with the 12th man. Notice that I didn’t even mention who Seattle was playing. Obviously, the opponent factors into the lines, but the point I am trying to make is purely to show how public betting bias plays into the creation of lines. A contrarian bettor in this fictional scenario is already gaining, at minimum, a half-point of extra value before we even break down other factors.
Overs are another popular pick for public bettors. Who doesn’t want to see points? I will be the first to admit it is more fun to watch a shootout and more scoring, however, this is another bias that is built into the number. Much like the spread on the favorite is shaded to account for public bias, so is the over. So, let’s stick to the football examples. A matchup formula may indicate that a game total will be around 47 points. The house will shade this line to build in public betting bias and would open the line at 47.7, 48, or 48.5. Again, contrarians gain inherent value looking at unders to play because of this built-in adjustment.
Favorites, home teams, and overs are just 3 examples of how being a contrarian immediately builds value in your bets. Ranked vs unranked bias shades the lines toward the ranked team. A team with a better win-loss record may see shaded lines. Even recent games play into the psychological effects of betting. A team coming off a huge win is more likely to receive heavy betting from public bettors because that big win is fresh in their minds. At the end of the day, it is extremely important to recognize these biases and even more important to understand that the bookmakers have already taken them into account.
Being a contrarian is simply a foundation. It’s a starting point for which to build fundamentals in the way you bet and the games you bet on. It is not the end all be all, however, it does allow you to take advantage of the betting market and in many cases even capitalize on the extra value in your bets because you are fading the public bias.