Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Week 1 is in the books and 241 entries have been eliminated from the 1005 total entrants, mostly at the hands of the Patriots' and Texans' surprising losses. If you listened to me last week, you are one of the survivors. Both the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Buffalo Bills had rather uneventful victories in week 1, which is exactly what I am looking for in my picks. Easy games I didn't even need to watch. Cleveland scored a late touchdown to make the game seem closer than it was with a final of 21-18 against the Steelers.

I laid out my winning strategy in the first article and will continue to reinforce that plan in week 2. So I pull out my schedule and see that the Jets travel to Oakland this week. There is my top pick. The Raiders are considered serious Super Bowl contenders and the Jets will be buying tickets to the game. I wonder if the Jets and Giants combined that they could make one good team? Anyways, I expect the Raiders to get an early lead and then give the Jets a Keith Richards sized dose of Marshawn Lynch. I will be interested to see in the coming weeks if the Raiders defense remains as impressive as they were against the Titans in week 1. If they truly are that much better than the rest of the league we better look out.

My Runner up pick goes to the Baltimore Ravens coming home to face the Cleveland Browns. Baltimore impressed me in week 1, shutting out the Bengals in Cincinnati 20-0. Deshone Kizer actually put up decent numbers for a first start going 20-30, 1TD, 1INT with an added rushing TD. But judging by the yards per rush and without watching most of this game I assume Pittsburgh loaded the box and focused on stopping the run and making Kizer beat them with his arm. Baltimore's stout defense will do the same this week. Can they shut out the state of Ohio? If the Ravens figure out how to score some points they can be a dangerous team down the stretch.

I expect Seattle to get a lot of picks this week as well as being 13.5 point favorites over the San Francisco 49ers. While the 49ers were handled easily 23-3 last week at the hands of the Carolina Panthers, Seattle was very lackluster in my opinion of a game a watched basically start to finish. Their defense did well against the Packers but their inability to score TDs in the red-zone is a concern for me. This is a trap game to me and I would take the 9ers with the points all day.

As you can see by the 241 dropping out after the first week, there is no need to get cute at the beginning of the season. I went with the 1st and 3rd highest point favorites this week. Book a win, and make the easy pick. Much like a poker tournament, you can't win the whole thing on the first hand.

Cheers,
Drink Five!

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters.

0 Interceptions

For only the second time in his career, Jay Cutler did not thrown an INT in his opening game. This means that next week will be the first time that Cutler takes a snap in Week 3 of an NFL season and doesn't have an INT to his name. OK, fine, this might be a way to pick on Smokin' Jay, but I must tip my cap to him and the Dolphins for winning on the road after the surprise Week 1 bye. 230 yards and 1 TD isn't going to blow anyone's socks off, but as I noticed during the game, it's still the same old Cutler. He's still throwing off his back foot, airing it out and getting lucky as hell from time to time. It's nice having tall receivers.

25% Field Goal Percentage

The Chargers new kicker, YoungHoe Koo doesn't even have a success rate that would keep you employed in baseball. The rookie kicker is just 1-for-4 in field goal attempts this season. He's missed or had blocked two at the end of games that would have either tied or give his team the lead with time running out. Both are only from 44 yards away, and his other miss is from 43. His only make has come from 41 yards, and to his credit, he has made 5/5 extra points. Making all your extra points is getting hard to come by in this league. It must be rough being a Chargers fan now. On top of playing in a tiny stadium that people are making fun of, having an owner people poke fun at, you now have to worry about kicking problems on your 0-2 team (which has just a 12% shot at making the playoffs, historically).

20+ Fantasy Points

This week felt a lot more like a normal week of fantasy football. There were 12 players that scored at least 20 points in standard scoring this week, and 9 of them are owned in at least 96% of Yahoo leagues. So, I guess go pick up C.J. Anderson if your league has been asleep? Lots of big names went back to their normal productive selves, but a few new names might stick around a bit. Trevor Siemian leads the league in passing TD's and has the most fantasy points for QB's (second overall). He's only owned by 13% of leagues right now! The Broncos look good at home, but I want to see a them on the road before inserting Siemian in my lineup. It is, however, the right time to pick him up off the waiver wire.

0.1 Fantasy Points

In our drinkfive.com fantasy league, my opponent had her TE break his foot, and he still scored 10x the points that my TE scored. Greg Olsen's 1 point was an order of magnitude larger than Jimmy Graham's 0.1 points. The tight end position is about to get a lot thinner as two of the main starters are looking like they aren't options going forward. Olsen's broken foot definitely leaves him out of your lineup, and Graham has some knee issues and is playing on Thursday night this week. It's time to scour the waiver wire for a new TE, thankfully, there are actually several options out there for you.

14 Seconds

At the end of the first half in the Patriots-Saints game, Tom Brady was tackled with just 14 seconds to go and no time-outs. Bad clock management some of you may say? Not from Belichick; he got his team ready for this. The field goal unit scrambled onto the field and snapped the ball with 2 seconds to spare and gave the Pats a 30-13 lead going into halftime. The poise and calmness that this all happened with made it seem like they planned on just this exact situation coming up on this very drive. It makes you wonder if Belichick told the special teams that they're not allowed to have timeouts anymore, and if they screw it up, they don't get to eat on Thursdays.

We're 2 weeks into the year and already have a laundry list of injured players to discuss. Just when we thought it could not get much worse, some more big players go down this week. Don’t throw in that towel! Stay active on the waiver wire and pucker your butthole for a long year of misfortune!

Quarterbacks

Sam Bradford (Knee) - There is so much scar tissue in Bradford’s knees, the team is unsure what is going on in there. The Vikings are calling it a bone bruise. He went through warm-ups before the game and threw a few balls before declaring himself out. Keep an eye out for an update on Wednesday. The whole offense takes a major dip if he is not on the field.

Other –

DeShone Kizer (Head/Migraine) - took some painkillers and returned to the game in the third quarter.

Running Backs

Fat Rob Kelley (Chest) – Fat Rob was having a respectable game before getting knocked out with a rib injury. The Redskins feared this was a fracture but that does not appear to be the case. He is currently Day to Day and we will have a better idea of his status later in the week

Jordan Howard (Shoulder) – Howard was spotted after the game in a sling. He was dealing with a shoulder injury going into this week and was just shy of a first down worth of rushing for the day. (9 rushes – 7 yards) Also worth noting that Cohen out-touched him 15-9 in a blowout game. We should know more tomorrow but John Fox is notorious for keeping injury information to himself.

DeMarco Murray (Hamstring) – Murray is day to day with a tight hamstring. He struggled against the Jags and Henry looked like the better RB on the field. I expect to see more and more of a split in that backfield. Get whatever value is left out of Murray while you can.

Rex Burkhead (Rib) – Burkhead caught a nice 19-yard touchdown on Sunday but was unable to finish the game. He went to the locker room in the fourth quarter and mum's the word since his exit. Gives a nice boost to James White if he is out but look at the injury report on Wednesday for an update.

Wide Receivers

Jordy Nelson (Quad) – Nelson left the game in the first quarter vs the Falcons after getting a knee to the thigh. He was seen riding an exercise bike during the game. This leads me to believe he got a good Charlie Horse and should be good to go this week. The current update is 50-50 for this week. Keep an eye on the situation and have a backup plan just in case.

Corey Coleman (Hand) – 2nd year Browns' receiver Corey Coleman is now 2 for 2 on seasons with broken hands. This time around it does require surgery so he is expected to land on IR. Shame to see after building some chemistry with DeMigraine Kizer. Not worth a hold unless you have an IR spot available.

Other Notable injuries:

Corey Davis (Hamstring) - Returned to game

Phillip Dorsett (Knee) - More patriot WR’s hurt. Not too fantasy relevant

Kendall Wright (Arm) - AVOID BEARS PLAYERS

Jeremy Maclin (Shoulder) - Returned to the game

Tight Ends

Greg Olsen (Foot) – Greg underwent surgery on his broken right foot today and has been placed on IR. Thankfully they did not have to remove it! The Panthers believe he will be back this season but he will not be eligible to practice for 6 weeks. Dickson will take over TE duties for the Panthers. You should have better options available on the waivers.

Jordan Reed (Chest) – Reed left in the third quarter of the game with a chest injury and did not return. Today, they are calling this a bruised chest which is a new one for me. Doesn’t seem like an issue and he should suit up week 3. The toe remains a concern.

Rob Gronkowski (Groin) – Gronk left the game and did not return after tweaking his groin. Gronk looked great before exiting the game and is expected to be good to go this weekend. Thankfully the injury is to a part of his body that sees the most exercise in the offseason so I expect a quick recovery.

Could be a tough week for the confidence pool, but fortunately, this looks like an easy week for the survivor pool. That's the thought I'm left with while making this week's picks. Last week we got both of our picks through when the Ravens and the Raiders both booked easy wins at home.

Wk1 Pit Buf
Wk2 Bal Oak

The New England Patriots opened as 13.5 point favorites as hosts to the Houston Texans. This is a no-brainer pick. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are just too smart to give this game away to the Texans defense. No way that rookie Deshaun Watson has what it takes to outscore the Pats and until he proves otherwise I will assume they need their defense to win games for them a la the 2001 Ravens.

My second pick was a little harder to decide on, so many good options. Broncos, Packers, Steelers, Dolphins, even the Ravens in London. But after much soul surfing*, my lack of faith in the Chicago Bears was just too strong. I think this could be the game that Le'Veon Bell gets right fantasy wise, after his last two weeks of training camp. It is just a matter of weeks before Bears fans will get to see the much-anticipated Mitch Trubisky. Hopefully, it's not an omen that spell check suggests Trubisky gets corrected to Rubbishy.

The Packers were just behind the Steelers for me this week facing what will ultimately be a better opponent in the Cincinnati Bengals. I haven't been impressed yet by Green Bay this season. I expect them to win this game at home but maybe this new offensive coordinator gets the Bengals scoring some points and makes this game competitive.

Also, would like to mention I have seen the Broncos at -2.5 at the Bills. I'll take that all day after watching what they did to the Cowboys last week.

Good Luck this week!
Drink five

*Note: I mistyped soul searching as soul surfing and kinda liked it. #soulsurfing