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NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy 2024 - Week 18
NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy 2024 - Week 17
David Biggs's Week 17 Rankings
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NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy 2024 - Week 16
The Rookie Report: Week 16 Starts & Sits
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David Biggs's Week 15 Rankings
The Rookie Report: Week 15 Starts & Sits
The Rookie Report: Week 14 Starts & Sits
David Biggs's Week 14 Rankings
NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy 2024 - Week 14
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NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy 2024 - Week 13
David Biggs's Week 13 Rankings
The Rookie Report: Week 12 Starts & Sits
Week 8 Player Trends: Ups and Downs
25
October

Week 8 Player Trends: Ups and Downs

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

Trends are a topic that I like to get into once the football season has had enough time to let them develop properly. Looking back on the past few weeks can tell us a lot about the future fantasy production of players, in some cases. I've selected 2 players each from QB/RB/WR positions to take a look at what direction I think they are headed in for the last half of the season. Those players trending up can also be seen as good targets to try and acquire before the trade deadline in your league(s). Percentage owned is taken from Yahoo as of 10/24/18.

 

QB

 

russell wilson trends week 8 fantasy footballRussell Wilson (92% owned, #22 QB, 104.52 fantasy pts total)

Week 4 @ARI (19/26, 172 yds, 0 TD, 8.98 pts)

Week 5 LAR (13/21, 198 yds, 3 TDs, 19.92 pts)

Week 6 @OAK (17/23, 222 yds, 3 TDs, 21.88 pts)

  • A rough start for the former QB1 in fantasy, but just rested through a bye week and now with Doug Baldwin healthy and performing (6/8, 91 yds in Week 6), Tyler Lockett locked in as the WR2, and a 3-headed rushing attack that is starting to come together, we could see Wilson come back to life in the 2nd half of the season. In Week 8 he goes up against a Detroit passing defense that has allowed 8 TDs over the past 3 games. Russell Wilson should continue to pick up speed over the next few weeks and come close to his initial value as a top QB to own and start in fantasy.

 

Mitchell Trubisky (66% owned, #8 QB, 142.26 fantasy pts total)

Week 4 TB (19/26, 354 yds, 6 TDs, 0 INTs, 43.46 pts)

Week 6 @MIA (22/31, 316 yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 28.34 pts)

Week 7 NE (26/50, 333 yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 33.42 pts)

  • Trubisky has been an exceptional fantasy QB over the last 3 games that he has played, no question about it. The real question is whether or not these point totals are sustainable and if we should be worried about the rising trend of interceptions juxtaposed with the falling TDs. Both TB (#1) and NE (#7) are in the top 10 worst passing defenses in the league. He faces the Jets in Week 8, a middle of the road passing defense. I'm concerned about the trend above of less TDs and more INTs, but Trubisky is locked-in as a starting QB now in fantasy until he proves otherwise. He is definitely a SELL for me though, if you have another good option it may be worth it to find a trade partner before he comes back down to Earth.

 

RB

David Johnson (100% owned, #11 RB, 82.10 fantasy pts total)

Week 5 @SF (18/55 rush/yds, 2 TDs, 2/16 rec/yds, 19.10 pts)

Week 6 @MIN (18/54 rush/yds, 1 TD, 2/15 rec/yds, 10.90 pts)

Week 7 DEN (14/39 rush/yds, 3/31 rec/yds, 7.00 pts)

  • At first glance, #11 RB isn’t so bad, but it is for David Johnson. Drafted top 3 for the past few years, Johnson enjoyed much success with former coach Bruce Arians calling the shots in Arizona. Johnson also had a seasoned QB under center. He may be able to break the top 10 and start performing at a high level again with the firing of OC Mike McCoy and switch to one of Arians’ pupils, Byron Leftwich, taking over offensive play calling duties. David Johnson faces a porous opponent Week 8 in the 49ers, who are currently the 7th worst rushing defense, allowing just under 100 yards and 1 TD per game on average. Things should turn around immediately for Johnson and get even better after the Cardinals' bye week. This is likely the lowest that David Johnson's value will be for the next few years.

 

Latavius Murray (79% owned, #24 RB, 60.70 fantasy pts total)

Week 5 @PHI (11/42 rush/yds, 2/14 rec/yds, 5.6 pts)

Week 6 ARI (24/155 rush/yds, 1 TD, 1/3 rec/yds, 21.80 pts)

Week 7 @NYJ (15/69 rush/yds, 2 TDs, 2/14 rec/yds, 20.30 pts)

  • The latest news on Dalvin Cook is that he will be out through the Vikings’ Week 10 bye. That means Murray has at least two more weeks to lead the backfield, and he has been impressing with good consistency over the past couple of games. Week 8’s opponent, the New Orleans Saints, have been great against the run (no one has gone over 80 yards against them) but Murray will still have some opportunities at the goal-line to collect fantasy points and then faces up against a generous Lions’ rushing defense. With bye weeks and injuries hitting now over the middle of the season, Murray is an excellent play until Cook gets healthy enough to return.

 

WR

emmanuel sanders player trends week 8 fantasy footballEmmanuel Sanders (96% owned, #3 WR, 94.72 fantasy pts total)

Week 5 @NYJ (9/72 rec/yds, 7.20 pts)

Week 6 LAR (7/115 rec/yds, 1 TD, 17.50 pts)

Week 7 @ARI (6/102 rec/yds, 1 TD, 21.32 pts)

  • Sanders was named the AFC Offensive Player of the Week in Week 7, and he has clearly been the best WR on the Broncos this season. In fact, he is sitting right at #3 among all WRs in fantasy points so far in standard leagues. There was some concern over his ankle injury late in the game against the Cardinals, but he has since been removed from the injury report and should be good to go against the Chiefs in Week 8 who are giving up a ton of yards to opposing receivers. Sanders should continue to feast!

 

Jordy Nelson (71% owned, #37 WR, 52.30 fantasy pts total)

Week 4 CLE (5/48 rec/yds, 1 TD, 12.80 pts)

Week 5 @LAC (4/43 rec/yds, 1 TD, 10.30 pts)

Week 6 SEA (2/6 rec/yds, 0.60 pts)

  • Nelson has had a big game this season (Week 3: 6/173 rec/yds) and scored 3 TDs so far, but his role has been chaotic at best on the Raiders – certainly an accurate reflection of the state of the team in general. With former WR1 Amari Cooper having been traded to the Cowboys, Jordy Nelson should immediately take over that position and his share of targets should increase. In weeks 3 (23.3 pts) and 4 (12.8 pts) Nelson had 8 targets each and his highest fantasy totals of the season. We can use this as a measuring stick to determine that his fantasy production going forward should be between 10 and 20 points per game in a standard league Grab him off the wire or try and buy him low if possible.

 

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Statistically (in)Significant: Week 8
29
October

Statistically (in)Significant: Week 8

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

 

statistically insignificant header image

 

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.

 

 

8 Straight Games of 100+ Receiving Yards

 

I've been keeping track of a couple of streaks here in the column lately, and both of them were extended on Sunday. First off, Adam Thielen matched Calvin Johnson's mark of 8 straight games with 100 receiving yards. It's also the new record for the start of a season. Thielen is the top scoring WR in fantasy this year (without ever hitting the 20 point mark), but his streak still comes up well short of Calvin Johnson's in one noticeable aspect. Megatron had 329 more yards during his streak, which is 35% more than Thielen. Also on Sunday, Patrick Mahomes continued his streak of 300 yard passing games, making it 7 in a row. He's still a couple games short of Drew Brees' record of 9 games, which he's done twice. Mahomes now leads the NFL with 2526 Passing Yards and 26 TDs. He's throwing a TD every 9.1% of his pass attempts and is leading all fantasy QBs by over 3 points per game.

 

3 Straight Games with 2 TDs

 

James Conner continues to be a marvel for the Steelers and now sits atop the crowded tier 2 RBs in fantasy points. Todd Gurley still has 41% more points than Conner, more on that in a moment. Conner's two TDs on Sunday made it three games in a row with two TDs, which is a first in franchise history. Quite a remarkable feat on a team like the Steelers, who have seen their share of hall of fame running backs. Conner is averaging 29.5 points per game over that stretch, which has prompted a lot of "Le'Veon who?" talk this year. Personally, I don't think the fighting is necessary or helpful. It may not be good from a fantasy perspective, but imagine the embarrassment of riches the Steelers will have at their disposal for the second half of the season when Bell finally reports.

 

15 TDs on the Season

 

Todd Gurley already has 15 combined rushing and receiving touchdowns in only 8 games. It could have been 16, and would have been nice for my fantasy team, but I applaud Gurley on his smart move. In the middle of a play, he was well aware that the only way to lose the game was to put the ball in the hands of Aaron Rodgers. Maybe Ty Montgomery can learn something from Gurley. Thus, the Rams are now 8-0, in part because their players are more aware of the game situation than their opponents. Maybe the Steelers and Browns can learn something too! Back to Gurley, he has more TDs than any other player had last season (Gurley had 19), and more than all but 8 players' season totals going back to 2012. He already has passed everyone's total from 2015. Gurley may have passed on a touchdown on Sunday, but he's still going to have a good shot at the single season record of 31.

 

2550 Career Points

 

I certainly wind up with a lot of entries about kickers for as much as I like to poke fun at them. This time though, it's definitely out of respect for a future hall of famer. Adam Vinatieri, who told his family not to travel to Oakland because he wasn't even sure if he'd play this week, now owns the career scoring record with 2550 total points. He's made 829 of his 846 extra point attempts, seen the extra point move back to no longer be a gimme, and still maintained a 94.4% conversion rate. He's made 573 field goals on 679 attempts and has been kicking since before South Park was a television show. Congrats to Adam Vinatieri, the most prolific kicker in a game that, by its name, you would think would have a lot more to do with kicking.

 

8 Top D/STs all Under 50% Owned

 

Through Sunday's games, the weekly leaders at D/ST once again prove that relying on one team every week is not likely to work, but then again, it's hard to tell what will. Of the top 8 D/STs, Washington & Carolina are the most owned at 45%. Only one of those teams is owned in our drinkfive league. It feels counter-intuitive when you have teams like the Rams, Texans and Bears that you don't want to let go, but streaming defenses is the way to go. The top 4 point scoring teams all matched up against teams that gave up the 12th most points, or more. Pay attention to matchups and the waiver wire and don't miss out on these points that wind up sitting on the waiver wire. Or, we could just get rid of the randomness of a kicker and defense from fantasy football altogether.

 

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2018 NFL Trade Deadline: The Fantasy Impact
01
November

2018 NFL Trade Deadline: The Fantasy Impact

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

The trade deadline was yesterday, and it made a great wooshing sound as it went past. The NFL is considerably more active with trades during the season compared to when we started the site back in 2011. The trade deadline may not result in moves that tip the balance of the league, like in the MLB, but there’s plenty of fantasy relevant moves that just might tip the balance in your league. First, we’ll start with two trades that happened in the last couple weeks, then the three fantasy relevant trades that happened yesterday.

 

Carlos Hyde, Browns to the Jaguars – This trade was made in an attempt to fill in for Leonard Fournette, who can't stay on the field this year. The Jaguars really need help in their backfield, and Hyde is a reasonable upgrade and will split work with T.J. Yeldon. The Jaguars have shown that they cannot lean on the passing game. They have won only one game this season without Fournette in the lineup. Long story short, the Jags need to have a strong run game to have any chance to return to the AFC Championship game this year.

 

                Jaguars Fantasy Impact – The Jaguars are on bye this week, giving Hyde an extra week to get up to speed. Reports are that Fournette will also try to return for Week 10, but that’s far from certain, so we’ll see what the injury reports say next week. If Fournette returns, this would likely be at the expense of T.J. Yeldon’s touches. Hyde and Fournette will likely share the load, though both have been underwhelming this year. Fournette has just 90 scrimmage yards in two games and is a 50/50 chance to re-injure himself as hamstring injuries can be tricky. Hyde got only 6 carries against the Eagles last week, though it was just his first game as a Jaguar. This year, Hyde has a career low 3.3 yards per carry, and only had 6 catches in 6 games in Cleveland, after getting 59 last season. Hyde’s bright spot is that he’s found the end zone 5 times this year.   TL:DR; Hyde and Fournette will split work until one of them shows any glimpses of competence. T.J. Yeldon is the odd man out, IF Fournette plays. That’s (literally) a big if.

 

                Browns Fantasy Impact – Not only has the Browns backfield been shaken up by this move, but now they will have a new Head Coach and OC to work with on Sunday. It’s tough to say what the new crew will do, but they would be well advised to keep feeding Nick Chubb. Getting Chubb the ball is perhaps the entire point of this trade in the first place. Chubb has taken the ball 18 times in each of the last 2 games, tacking on 2 receptions as well. He leads the league with 6.1 yards per carry, so I expect Chubb to continue getting the ball, depending on game flow. The next 3 opponents for the Browns are the Chiefs, Falcons and Bengals – all teams that are in the top 8 for giving up points to opposing RBs. Duke Johnson used to play the change of pace role in this offense, but he has been a ghost most of the year. He’s lagging well behind last year’s numbers in every category, and his usage did not pick up in the last two weeks with Hyde gone. Johnson is talented and available in a lot of leagues, but cannot be counted on yet.                        TL:DR; Chubb’s stock is way up with this trade and could flirt with low RB1 status the next few weeks. Duke Johnson should be a worthy PPR flex play, but cannot be counted on for now.

 

Amari Cooper, Raiders to Cowboys – The story of this trade is the price that the Cowboys were willing to pay for Cooper. This doesn’t matter much for fantasy, but it is nice to see someone get completely dominated in a trade, just like you see in your own league. The Cowboys are desperate for a deep threat to relieve some pressure for Ezekiel Elliot, but this is unlikely to be the answer. In Oakland, the fire sale is in full effect after the trade of Khalil Mack to start the season.John Gruden is stockpiling 1st round draft picks like they’re freeze-dried meals and Y2K is coming up. To be fair, it’s perhaps the only sensible move that the Raiders have made since Gruden took charge, and it’s mostly because it’s possible this goes down as one of the worst trades the Cowboys have made, considering this could wind up being a top-10 pick.

 

                Cowboys Fantasy Impact – Cooper obviously slides in as an every down receiver, and is probably in a better situation than he was in Oakland. He still hasn’t been active in Dallas, but there’s no fantasy relevant WR that he’s even displacing. Even so, I don’t expect Cooper to do very much. For a guy who was once thought of as a top 10 WR in the league (drafted 4th overall in 2015), he’s fallen off a cliff. Since Week 9 of 2016, Cooper has only 4 games with 100+ yards during that span of 30 games. He reached that level 9 times in his first 24 games.                        TL:DR; Don’t count on Cooper to be fantasy relevant, and he’s not displacing anyone else on the Cowboys, so there’s no fantasy impact? I’m officially confused by this move.

 

                Raiders Fantasy Impact – The Raiders have only had one game since this trade, and against the Colts, when they were down by multiple scores and still put up 28 points, there were just 7 receptions spread among the 4 WRs that played in the game. Jordy Nelson had just one catch and cannot be counted on. Brandon LaFell is not going to pick up the slack. Jalen Richard wound up with 8 receptions, and it looks like he might be the only fantasy player on the Raiders who is making positive changes.       TL:DR; The Raiders are bad and they should feel bad. Richard might fill in and be a flex in PPR leagues, but seriously, don’t rely on the Raiders to win fantasy games.

 

Demaryius Thomas, Broncos to Texans – Now we’re on to the deadline-day trades. Thomas’s name was associated with several teams, but he wound up going to Houston to join one of the hottest teams in the league (5 wins in a row counts, right?). The Texans are clearly better when they have two deep threats, and with Will Fuller on the IR, they had a big hole to fill. Good on the Texans for going out and getting a reasonable replacement. Thomas has struggled this year, but he’s getting a large upgrade at QB. The Broncos are also in a partial rebuilding phase, and have been riding Emmanuel Sanders all year anyways. Courtland Sutton is a good looking rookie who needs more time on the field, so this move makes a lot of sense from both sides.

 

                Texans Fantasy Impact – This impact should be pretty straightforward. Will Fuller just put big numbers last week, then tore his ACL at the end of the game.Thomas will attempt to be a direct replacement for Fuller. Keke Coutee, if healthy, could be a wild card that takes a bit of work from Thomas, however there’s probably room for 3 WRs to be fantasy relevant if Deshaun Watson is playing as well as he can.           TL:DR; Fuller is out, Thomas is in. Coutee could be a wild card, but I would only count on the healthiest WR on the Texans, aside from that Hopkins guy. He’s pretty good.

 

                Broncos Fantasy Impact – It’s hard to increase Emmanuel Sanders’ performance on this season, considering he’s the #7 WR on the season. I expect Sanders to remain steady as he’s clearly the favorite target of Case Keenum. Courtland Sutton is the story here. The rookie has made several flashy plays this season, and now will be up for a lot more work than before. Sutton’s ceiling this year has been 3 receptions, so there’s a lot of room for growth there. He’s also averaging 19.1 yards per catch, so increased snaps, targets and receptions will help stretch the offense and will open up space for both Sanders and the running backs. The next 3 matchups for the Broncos is a mixed bag, so don’t expect immediate results.               TL:DR; Sanders remains a top 10 option, Sutton is now the new rookie hotness and he can quickly become a fantasy relevant WR.

 

Ty Montgomery, Packers to Ravens – This is a trade that was definitely not going to happen last Saturday, but was pretty obviously coming by Tuesday, due to Montgomery basically being blamed (rightfully so) for the Packers loss to the Rams. Montgomery’s boneheaded move got him traded for just a 2020 seventh round pick. The only way that could feel worse is if he was getting sent to the Raiders. The Ravens probably didn’t need another RB on their team, but Ozzie Newsome knows a bargain when he sees one.

 

                Ravens Fantasy Impact – I’m don’t think that Montgomery is worthy of weekly fantasy starts, considering that he’s going to be firmly behind Alex Collins on the depth chart. I don’t expect him to take much work away from Collins, so you can relax there if Collins is on your team. Buck Allen looks like the odd man out with this move, but since he’s not very relevant this year, that’s not a big change. Montgomery is only owned in 17% of Yahoo leagues, and that’s probably right. He can stay on the waiver wire for now.            TL:DR; Alex Collins stays the same, Buck Allen will lose snaps, but Montgomery isn’t even worth owning, so overall, there’s not much change.

 

                Packers Fantasy Impact – The Packers backfield has long been thought of as a potential El Dorado, but usually winds up being fool’s gold instead. Montgomery’s 6 touches per game will need to go somewhere, yes, but adding 6 touches per game to Aaron Jones is not how this math is going to work out. Yes, Jones is the back to own on the Packers, but the Packers never seem to commit to the run, or even one RB. Jamaal Williams also stands to benefit, but much like Buck Allen, he wasn’t fantasy relevant in the first place. This little bump is unlikely to change things on that front. I think the real impact of this move will be the message that’s sent to the rest of the team.                 TL:DR; Don’t fuck with Aaron Rodgers. Aaron Jones needs to get the ball more, but probably won’t. Still, he should be rostered everywhere.

 

Golden Tate, Lions to Eagles – Wrapping up our trade discussion is the best offensive player to be traded on Tuesday, Golden Tate. Tate gets the rare double bye week this season, which sucks for those of you with him on your team. Tate is averaging 10.5 points per game this season, which is good for top 25 in both average and overall points. This is the one trade that I wasn’t expecting. The Lions are looking to get something out of Tate instead of letting him walk at the end of the year. They know they aren’t likely to move on to the playoffs. The Eagles are trying to get rid of their Super Bowl hangover, and as a person who has had hangovers before, sometimes you just gotta try something different.

 

                Eagles Fantasy Impact – This is the toughest impact for me to figure out. I don’t expect Alshon Jeffery to lose any work. He has 4 TDs in 5 games and is averaging nearly 70 yards per game this year. Nelson Agholor is likely the odd man out, as he plays in the slot like Tate, but is not nearly as prolific as a run after the catch guy. Tate is averaging nearly 3 yards per catch more than Agholor, and as a slot receiver, those are all yards that Tate has earned by himself. Still, I’m not sure how this situation is really going to shake out for the 4-4 Eagles.            TL:DR; Tate will remain a WR3, likely at the expense of Nelson Agholor. Don’t expect Alshon Jeffery’s value to go up or down significantly. Also I’m the least certain about this than any other team listed here.

 

                Lions Fantasy Impact – The Lions are going to continue throwing the ball a lot. Stafford has 273 yards per game this year, and that’s a lot of yardage to go around. Marvin Jones is likely to see a small boost in his targets. I expect last year’s rookie Kenny Golladay to be the biggest beneficiary of this move, similar to Courtland Sutton. Look for Brandon Powell, an undrafted free agent and punt returner to get a look in the slot. Realistically, Theo Riddick is the one who’s likely to absorb those passes that are over the middle, short yardage, and third down work.                 TL:DR; Jones and Golladay will see  a bump, Powell is going to get a look, but isn’t fantasy relevant. Riddick is going to be a PPR nut once again.

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Rookie Report: Week 9 Starts & Sits
01
November

Rookie Report: Week 9 Starts & Sits

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We've made it about halfway through the NFL season, so it's time to kick your playoff push for the fantasy playoffs into high gear. This week is going to challenge many fantasy teams with SIX NFL teams on a bye, and among them several peak fantasy performers. With that in mind, there are going to be some unexpected rookies who are going to push themselves into the usable range in shallower leagues. There were also some trades this week that may have opened up new opportunities for a couple rookies. Before I dive into the week 9 breakdown, I did want to mention one rookie who is sitting out this week on bye. Eagles' rookie Josh Adams is well worth a pickup after providing a solid rushing effort last week in a wide open backfield. He has a chance to be a top-30 back down the stretch if his performance continues. Now let's look at the outlook for the rest of the rooks...

 

Rookies to Start:

 

RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 9: vs. Hou.): Royce Freeman is likely going to be sidelined this week and Lindsay has done well to establish himself as a weekly RB2 even with Freeman healthy. The Texans aren't an inviting matchup, ranking 1st in the league in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA stat, but there's no reason to sit Lindsay in a week with so many top options on byes.

 

RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 9: vs. KC): Chubb also will likely be a beneficiary of all of the byes this week. Saquon, Marlon Mack, Joe Mixon and David Johnson are all off this week, and Kansas City allows more RB fantasy points per game than any other team in the league. The Browns' offense has been sputtering lately, and things are in flux with the coaching changes, but Chubb should be a solid RB2 in a plus matchup this week. The only fear is that game script may get away from him with the Browns a 10-point underdog.

 

Borderline Rookies:

 

QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 9: vs. KC): KC's been sharp against the pass in the last 2 weeks, but they've still allowed the 7th-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. Mayfield has been less than stellar over the past couple weeks, but he's recorded at least 1 touchdown in every start he's made this year, and the coaching changes may provide a boost to Mayfield and the offense. With 6 QBs out this week, Mayfield makes for a reasonable QB2 option.

 

QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 9: @Mia.): In 2-QB leagues, just about everyone is in play this week. Darnold strikes me as more of a desperation option, but there is some reason for optimism. His yardage totals have been low (more than 210 passing yards just twice in 8 games), but the Dolphins have coughed up multiple TDs in 4 of the past 5 contests, and have given up 14 total passing TDs in those weeks. They also rank just 26th in pass defense DVOA. There are worse fill-in options this week for 2-QB formats.

 

RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 9: @Min.): You're almost certainly going to play Kerryon if you have him given how he's played lately, especially with the byes and with the Lions likely to employ a more balanced approach with Golden Tate shipped off to Philly. The issue for Kerryon this week is the matchup, and the possible return of Theo Riddick. Minnesota has allowed just one team's RB group to top 60 rushing yards in the past 4 weeks, and they rank 10th in run defense DVOA. Theo may cut into his passing game work. This makes Johnson a risky RB2 for week 9.

 

RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 9: vs. GB): Keep a close eye on the injury report with Michel. He got in a limited practice on Saturday before not playing on Monday night, so there is a decent chance he plays this week. It's a solid matchup if he's able to suit up with Green Bay ranking 24th in run defense DVOA. He's a worthy flex or RB2 option if he's able to play. The Pats are unlikely to hold him back if they played Cordarrelle Patterson in his stead on Monday.

 

WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 9: @Was.): Ridley may even be in play for you as a WR2 if you're hard up due to byes. He's been quiet lately after his early season TD barrage, being held to under 50 receiving yards in each of the past 3 contests with zero scores, but he was the 2nd-most targeted Falcon last week after Julio Jones. This week is a good opportunity for him to get back on track against a middling Washington WR defense. There's risk here that he continues to stay in the 3-40-0 range, but I like his chances for a bounceback game.

 

WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk.9: vs. TB): This will be as good a week as any to take a risk on DJ Moore. The Bucs allow the 2nd most WR points per game, and rank dead last in pass defense DVOA. Moore's role has been rapidly increasing. Over the past 4 games he's tallied 18 catches for 237 yards, and 4 rushes for 75, and he set a season-high with 129 scrimmage yards in week 8. There's a chance he duplicates that feat in a great matchup.

 

WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 9: vs. Hou.): With Demaryius Thomas gone, the WR2 role in Denver is wide open for Sutton to take over. That role didn't exactly work out well for DT, but the Texans rank 30th in pass defense DVOA on throws to the number 2 WR. He's more of an upside play than a safe option this week, but the drop off in target competition should give him a higher floor moving forward.

 

Rookies to Sit:

 

RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 9: vs. KC): If Freeman manages to play, he'll likely take a back seat to Phillip Lindsay and be eased back into action. Since the Texans rank 1st in run defense DVOA, this probably isn't the best spot to take a chance on a limited Freeman.

 

RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 9: @Was.): Ito has upside as long as Devonta Freeman is out, but this isn't a great matchup. Washington has allowed just 90 total rushing yards and zero total TDs to running backs in the past 3 weeks, and they faced Zeke, Saquon, and McCaffrey in that stretch. Ito isn't on that level. I'd look elsewhere for RB help this week.

 

RB Justin Jackson, LAC (Wk.9: @Sea.): Ok, so you weren't actually considering playing Jackson this week, but he's definitely worth watching for those of you playing in dynasty leagues if Melvin Gordon is out again. Rookie scouting guru Matt Waldman compared Jackson with Jamaal Charles in this year's Rookie Scouting Portfolio, and this may be the first real look we get at him. He was ultra-productive in college at Northwestern. If he impresses, he may be worth a stash in deeper dynasty formats.

 

WR Keke Coutee, HOU (Wk. 9: @Den.): Keke's status is still up in the air this week as he works his way back from a hamstring injury, and his overall outlook took a hit with the trade for Demaryius Thomas. Coutee will still have WR3 upside when healthy, but I'd probably steer clear this week. The Broncos' best corner Chris Harris Jr patrols the slot, and the Broncos rank 2nd in pass defense DVOA on throws to WRs who aren't their team's #1 or 2.

 

WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk.9: vs. Ten.): Gallup seemed to be making strides when he posted his best game of the year before the bye (3-81-1)...then thee Cowboys went out and traded for Amari Cooper. Cooper's role as the team's WR1 should be obvious after the team spent a first round pick to acquire him. The rest of the WR group already was tough to figure out, and now there are less snaps and targets to divvy up between them. Keep Gallup parked on the bench until we see him emerge with Amari around.

 

WR Damion Ratley, CLE (Wk. 9: vs. KC): Ratley had just one catch in week 8, and it's likely that Rashard Higgins will return this week and push Ratley back to the bench.

 

TEs Hayden Hurst & Mark Andrews, BAL (Wk. 9: @Pit.): Andrews continues to be the most involved TE in the Ravens' passing game, but it isn't resulting in fantasy success. Hurst did post his first career TD last Sunday after head coach John Harbaugh talked about getting him more involved, but it came in garbage time with Lamar Jackson at QB. Neither player is doing enough to trust this week.

 

TE Jordan Thomas, HOU (Wk. 9: @Den.): Don't be fooled by the 2 touchdowns from last week, tight ends don't get featured in this offense. Thomas had just 4 catches all season prior to week 8, and in his 'breakout' 2-TD game he was asked to block on nearly two-thirds of the snaps he played. I wouldn't expect a repeat performance.

 

Rookies on Bye: QB Josh Rosen, ARI, RB Saquon Barkley, NYG, RB Josh Adams, PHI, RBs Nyheim Hines & Jordan Wilkins, IND, RB Chase Edmonds, ARI, RB Mark Walton, CIN, WR Christian Kirk, ARI, WR DJ Chark, JAX, TE Dallas Goedert, PHI

 

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

 

RB Trenton Cannon, NYJ (Wk. 9: @Mia.): The Dolphins are favored to win this game, and they've allowed the 9th-most RB receiving yards on the year. Cannon wasn't overly productive last week, but he will continue to play the 3rd-down role at least until Eli McGuire returns from IR. He's only an option in deep PPR leagues this week. Make sure that McGuire isn't returning this week before pulling the trigger.

 

WR Tre'Quan Smith, NO (Wk. 9: vs. LAR): I'm still on the Tre'Quan train despite limited results over the past 2 weeks. Drew Brees likely won't be limited to 120 passing yards again in a game with the highest over/under of the week, and Smith is running as the Saints' WR2. He'll be hard to trust in anything but deeper leagues and DFS tournaments, but there is still big upside here.

 

WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 9: @Buf.): Miller has been targeted 7 times in each of the last 2 weeks, and it seems there's a good chance A-Rob misses another game this week. The rookie has caught just 5 of those 14 targets for 72 yards and a score, but he's likely to avoid the coverage of Tre'Davious White since White rarely goes into the slot. Miller is a better option than teammate Taylor Gabriel this week.

 

WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB (Wk.9: @NE): Despite the return to action of Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison in week 8, Valdes-Scantling still played ahead of them. It may just be the Packers easing the injured guys back in, but if it continues here MVS has some decent upside. This tilt has shootout potential with the 2nd-highest O/U of the week.

 

WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 9: vs. KC): Callaway finally had a game where he caught more than half of his targets, pulling in 5-of-6 opportunities and finding the end zonein week 8. The yardage was limited, but it was still a good sign to see his efficiency improve. The Browns will likely be throwing a lot this week, and the Chiefs are a good matchup for WRs. I'm not ready to fully trust Callaway, but he's an interesting upside play this week, especially as a cheap DFS tournament option.

 

WR DaeSean Hamilton, DEN (Wk. 9: vs. Hou.): We haven't seen much of Hamilton yet, but with Demaryius shipped off to Houston he should step into the WR3 role that resulted in a few productive weeks for Courtland Sutton. DaeSean is an intriguing stash for deeper dynasty leagues to see how his role shakes out without DT.

 

TE Chris Herndon, NYJ (Wk. 9: @Mia.): There isn't a lot of yardage upside with Herndon, but he's a better than average TD dart throw this week. The rookie tight end has scored a touchdown in 3 straight games, and the Dolphins have allowed 5 scores to the position in the last 3 contests.

 

That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with some of your toughest lineup decisions this week that involve rookies. It could be a messy week with so many byes, so make sure to keep an extra close eye on the injury report this week to make sure all of your players suit up, and to look for unexpected opportunity that can benefit your team. Feel free to reach out on twitter if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.

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