Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.
5 Players over 30 Fantasy Points
Week 3 saw the return of big fantasy totals, with Russell Wilson leading the way at over 41 points. Unfortunately for Wilson, it was in a losing effort as most of the 4th quarter was basically garbage time for the Seahawks, who were trounced by the Brees-less Saints. We also saw newcomer Daniel Jones put up numbers we’ve never seen from a rookie before, throwing for over 300 yards and scoring 2 TDs through the air and another 2 on the ground. The big scoring numbers went deep, with the top 10 players all scoring at least 25 points, and the top 24 players all hitting at least the 20-point mark. This likely translated into fantasy success for lots of people, as the position players in the top 24 were all owned in at least 75% of Yahoo leagues.
4-4 Record
Rookie and Backup QBs were the big story this week, with 25% of NFL teams now having turned to either a rookie or a backup this season. Six of these guys were starting for the first time this week, and we saw Daniel Jones, Teddy Bridgewater and Kyle Allen lead their teams to victories in games where they were not expected to do much of the heavy lifting. Jones and Allen were responsible for 4 TDs each, while Bridgewater played an admirable game manager. Elsewhere in the rookie watch this week, Kyler Murray did what he could, but was sacked 8 times and his first victory still eludes him. Next up is a home game against division rival Seattle – a softer target that you might have thought in the preseason. Finally, we’ve got our number 1 boy, Gardner Minshew II. Minshew led the Jaguars to victory in the annual Thursday night Crap Bowl sponsored by NFL network versus the Tennessee Titans. Minshew is playing so well that whispers of what to do with Nick Foles when he comes back have turned into full on serious conversations.
0.79 Points Per Target
49ers tight end George Kittle was part of the preseason “big 3” at his position, but he’s fallen quite short of that mark so far. In 3 games, he hasn’t topped more than 5.7 points, but is remarkably consistent, with 5.4 points in the other 2 games. His targets are there, he has 21 on the season, but he’s just not doing anything with them. This is very disappointing when you consider that only Travis Kelce (1.38 PPT) has made it into the top 10 from the preseason top 3. This means that lots of guys who you could have taken very late are doing quite well at the position. Leading the way at TE is Evan Engram, a high-volume guy who will probably maintain that role with his shiny new QB, leads all TEs in scoring with 39.70 points. The most efficient so far? That’d be Mark Andrews, who has a very nice 1.48 points per target, despite his very disappointing week 3 performance.
0.20 Fantasy Points
The once great John Ross has returned back to irrelevance, at least for one week. Going in to week 2, Ross led all WRs in fantasy points, but his 2 catches for 22 yards and a fumble have dropped him down to 7th overall at the position. He’s just behind DJ Chark, who is only owned in 41% of Yahoo leagues and will likely be this week’s hot WR pickup on the waiver wire. Chark has scored a TD in each of his first 3 games and is a clear favorite target of Gardner Minshew II. Elsewhere at WR, Davante Adams is having a very slow start to a season, which is surprising since the Packers are 3-0. Adams is averaging just 6.6 points per game and hasn’t found the end zone yet. Adams is lagging behind his usual pace of receptions and touchdowns since his 2016 breakout season, but his yards per game isn’t that terrible and his catch rate is as high as it’s ever been. Perhaps it’s just positive game script that’s keeping Adams from putting up big numbers. The Packers haven’t been challenged too much by their opponent’s offenses so far, so that’s translated into a quiet air attack so far this season. The Packers are 27th in pass attempts and passing yardage, which is bound to improve as the season goes on, so don’t fret, Rodgers and Adams owners.
0 Offensive TDs Allowed
The Patriots D/ST keeps putting up great performances, and it’s because their real-life defense has been stellar. Through 3 games, they have only allowed 3 points to opposing offenses, a field goal early in week 1. The D/ST has double digit points in each game so far this season, and a schedule with the Redskins, Giants, Jets and Browns coming up after this week’s meeting in Buffalo show that they have a decent shot at keeping this streak alive. In Week 3, the team did give up a pick-six and fumbled a punt in the end zone, both resulting in TDs for the Jets D/ST, who led the way with 16 points this week. The Jets have a bye coming up, so they are not useful just yet, but they have 3 TDs on the season and are tied for third in total points among all D/STs.
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.
45.9 QB Rating
Tom Brady had an abysmal QB rating in Sunday’s game, his lowest rated game since 2006, although his Week 16 game last year against Buffalo when he put up a 48.3 rating is close. This is trying to develop into a division rivalry, though Brady’s pure dominance against Buffalo (31-3), suggests otherwise. It’s been hard to find a division rival for the Patriots in the last couple decades. Still, Brady put up a whopping 4.7 points as the QB26 so far this week, so at least we know he’s human. What may not be human is the Patriots defense and special teams this season. They scored another touchdown this week, which means that they have 3 TDs vs just 1 yielded on defense (and another on special teams). At 86 points on the season, they are the 6th highest scoring “player” across all positions. They have 60% more points than the next highest scoring D/ST, the Bears – who have looked incredibly dominant.
15,021 Rush Yards and 1,326 Receptions
Congrats are due to Frank Gore and Larry Fitzgerald, who both reached milestone career stats on Sunday. Gore became just the 4th player to rush for over 15,000 yards – just north of 8.5 miles gained from scrimmage. We’ve constantly been wrong when predicting the demise of Frank Gore, so I just want to say that you rock, Frank! Keep proving us wrong, because this must be his last season, right? I suppose being the RB20 and putting up double digits each of the last 3 weeks begs to differ. Meanwhile, down in the desert, Larry Fitzgerald is now second all time on the career receptions list, just behind Jerry Rice, whom is 226 receptions ahead, which is probably 3 seasons away if Larry wants to make a run at it. Fitzgerald is the WR20 so far this year and has put up 42 points, while Gore has 42.10 points. Aside from the position they play, they’re basically the same player.
81 Yard Rushing…. non-Touchdown
Leonard Fournette broke free on Sunday for an 81 yard rumble, the longest play in the NFL this season that did not result in a touchdown. Still, Fournette wound up as the RB3 on the week so far, with 225 rushing yards and another 20 receiving yards tacked on to that. The real story in Jacksonville is Gardner Minshew II, clearly a future hall of famer. Maybe that’s just what I want to happen, but I’ve been a fan since he got in the game Week 1 and completed 13 consecutive passes to start his career. Minshew is the QB16 on the season, ahead of guys like Jared Goff and Aaron Rodgers. He’s only owned in 11% of Yahoo leagues and has a floor of 16 points on the season – pretty good for a rookie who wasn’t supposed to start.
36.30 Fantasy Points
Your clubhouse leader in points in Week 4 is Nick Chubb, who had a ridiculous 183 yards from scrimmage to go along with 3 TDs. The Browns offense finally exploded for the first real time this season, beating the first place Ravens. The Browns, 2-2, are now tied with those same Ravens for first place in the AFC North. Chubb was a one-man wrecking crew, far outpacing his fellow fantasy star teammates, Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham Jr., who both had a higher QB rating than anyone for Washington. Mayfield had his best game of the season, 16.78 points, which is basically Gardner Minshew’s floor. Minshew Mania, baby!
5 of the Top 10 QBs in Week 4
So far this week, 5 of the top 10 QBs this week, by fantasy points, are owned in 68% of leagues or fewer. This stat can only get crazier tonight if either Andy Dalton (36% owned) or Mason Rudolph (10% owned) can put up a 20-point game. Jameis Winston leads the way in both points and ownership, throwing for 4 TDs in a high scoring upset of the LA Rams where his team put up a franchise record 55 points. Jacoby Brissett, Matthew Stafford, Marcus Mariota and Joe Flacco all found themselves in the top 10. Between the 4 of them, their ownership overs around 27%. The top 10 QBs combined for a 4-6 record, so maybe we need to start picking, or at least streaming, QBs from bad teams instead of the good ones. Nah. I’ll take my chances with a Patrick Mahomes, this week’s QB12, who is on pace for 6000 yards this season. He didn’t even throw a TD this week despite his team putting up 34 points.
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.
16 Point Fantasy Floor
This season, only 3 players in the NFL have a solid fantasy floor. The always reliable Patrick Mahomes, even when his team scores a scant 13 points, has not scored less than 18 fantasy points all season. The other two guys are a bit more surprising. Kyler Murray and Gardner Minshew II. Murray notched his first win on Sunday against the hapless Bengals. He had his best day statistically as a fantasy QB, not turning the ball over and gaining 93 yards on the ground to go with a TD. Murray ended the day as the QB6 to Minshew’s QB8. Both guys are rookies, one was the first overall draft pick and the other is clearly a future hall-of-famer and worthy successor to Blake Bortles in the eyes of Jason from The Good Place. Minshew had a tough matchup against fellow rookie phenom Kyle Allen on Sunday. Unfortunately for Minshew, he doesn’t have Christian McCaffrey on his team. Speaking of the guy leading ALL fantasy players and the MVP race at the moment…
866 Yards from Scrimmage
Christian McCaffrey had himself a game on Sunday. His 237 yards from scrimmage and 3 TDs were actually only good for the 3rd best point total on a day with huuuuge points, but more on them later. McCaffrey is now on pace for 2770 yards from scrimmage this season, smashing the record of 2509 set by Chris Johnson in 2009. So far, McCaffrey leads the league in rushing yards and, second in receiving yards among RBs. He is the top point scorer in all of fantasy football, with 128.60 points, just nudging out QBs Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson. Next up, the Buccaneers, the only team that has managed to hold McCaffrey to under 23.9 points this season. I expect him to have a much better performance this time around.
6 Players Above 30 Fantasy Points
This week was all about big performances. The early games, and there were a lot of them (10!), had the Texans hanging 53 points on Atlanta. Along the way, Deshaun Watson threw 5 TDs and notched 41.74 fantasy points, a season high at the position. Three of those scores were via the hands of Will Fuller V, who had his own monster day of 217 yards and 3 TDs for 39.70 points. This was more than double his season points total so far, having not exceeded 6.9 points in a game all year. Falcons QB Matt Ryan continued his excellent, but quiet year. His 32.9 points on Sunday was excellent for fantasy players, but a terrible losing effort for his team. Ryan also gets an honorable mention in regards to my earlier stat about QB floors – his lowest game this year is 15.68. Michael Thomas put up a ho-hum 30+ point game, showing that he’s good no matter who’s throwing him the ball. I already mentioned Christian McCaffrey, who was sitting on top of the RB list this week until Aaron Jones had something to say about it. Jones basically beat the Cowboys all by himself. Putting up a whopping 42.2 points, he had 182 yards from scrimmage and 4 TDs on the ground. Aaron Rodgers owners may not be thrilled, but clearly, we all see who the real A-a-ron is in Green Bay right now.
35 Fantasy Points
But wait, there was one more entry to the 30 points and over club! A D/ST had a huge day and surprisingly it wasn’t the odds-on favorite New England Patriots against the hapless Washington Redskins. The Philadelphia Eagles just dismantled the New York Jets, limiting them to only 9 first downs, putting up 10 sacks and scoring TDs on both an interception and a fumble recovery. They added another interception just for fun and because, apparently, it’s easy to pick on Luke Falk. The Jets need Sam Darnold back as soon as possible. Maybe Darnold can get tips from Jason Witten on how to rehab one’s spleen. I don’t really see this performance as indicative of the Eagles getting better, but rather it just shows how bad the Jets are. The Eagles play Minnesota, Dallas and Buffalo coming up, and I see no advantage to keeping them around this week. Continue streaming, friends!
3 of the Top 10
Finally, a bit about kickers in fantasy football. Only 3 of the top 10 performers in Week 5 were owned in our drinkfive fantasy league. Those three kickers are owned in at least 78% of Yahoo leagues. The remaining 7 kickers have an average ownership of just about 19%, showing that nobody knows what the hell a kicker is going to do week to week, mostly because it’s not up to them! This is just my latest entry to my argument that kickers probably don’t need to have anything to do with fantasy football. Any Sunday, you’ve got an equal chance, it seems, to have a guy like Dan Bailey (10% owned) put up the same amount of points as a guy like Justin Tucker (99% owned). It’s just ridiculous that 2 of the top 5 kickers on the year are owned in fewer than 25% of Yahoo leagues, Matt Gay (22%) and Zane Gonzalez (17%).
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.
5 TE’s at the Top
Through Sunday in Week 6, the tight end spot in fantasy has been quite a slog. There’s been no dominant player at the position, though there have been a few pleasant surprises. Going into this week, there were 5 players between 49 and 51 points on the season. Unfortunately, it looks like Will Dissly, who led the pack by a very slim margin, could be done for the season with an Achilles tear. That leaves us with the newest break-out TE Austin Hooper as our leader. Hooper took advantage of a Cardinals defense that is giving up an absurd amount points to opposing TEs. Hooper has now finished as a top 3 TE in 3 of 6 weeks so far this season. Rounding out the top 5 are the always reliable Travis Kelce, Evan Engram (who missed a game, so his per-game average is still pretty good), and finally the Ravens break-out star, Mark Andrews.
78 Passing Yards
Jared Goff had a whopping 78 passing yards on Sunday, a career low for him, which roughly equates to $20,833 per yard gained through the air this week. The Rams had a particularly bad game against the still undefeated 49ers. They scored a TD on their opening drive and then did nothing for the rest of the game. The fact that they gained all their yards on the ground that first drive seems like a bad omen for the way the rest of the game went for them. It’s hard to tell where this team’s fantasy potential is headed. On one hand, this offense was a juggernaut last season and now have scored at least 27 points in 4 of 6 games this season. On the other hand, you have Jared Goff, who has thrown more picks than touchdowns in the last 4 weeks. Aside from this week, the Rams are still putting up decent fantasy points with their big players, so I wouldn’t ditch them all yet, but I would consider who I start against the 49ers going forward.
116 Passing Yards in One Drive
The Chiefs haven’t done a lot of winning the last couple weeks, but Patrick Mahomes is still doing amazing things on the field. In their first drive, thanks to several penalties, Mahomes managed the stunning mathematical trick of throwing for 116 yards in one drive. Unfortunately for the Chiefs, they only gained another 157 yards through the air the remainder of the game. They only had about 20 minutes in time of possession for the entire game, and clearly this has become the (rather obvious) method for defeating the Chiefs. Last week, they had just under 23 minutes in time of possession. Against the Texans, the Chiefs only ran the ball 11 times despite never being down more than 7 points in the game. On the other side, the Texans ran the ball 41 times to go along with 42 passing attempts. Balance, my friends, is key in all things.
27 D/ST Fantasy Points
With another 27 fantasy points this week, the New England Patriots D/ST squad has just dominated fantasy football. Their 27 points made them the 8th highest scoring “player” in Week 6. On the season, the defense and special teams have combined for 5 TDs and have 16 turnovers in just 6 games. They’re second in the league with 25 sacks and have given up only 3 touchdowns on defense all season. Their 127 fantasy points on the season make them the 9th highest scoring entity in fantasy football this season, behind only one non-QB, Christian McCaffrey. Compared to other D/STs, they are 52 points ahead of the second highest scoring team and have more than doubled up the 4th highest scoring team.
36.5 Fantasy Points in Week 6
The squeaky wheel does often get the grease, though sometimes it takes a few weeks to apply it. This week, Stefon Diggs had a monster game, scoring 3 TDs and 167 yards on 7 receptions, adding 18 rushing yards on 2 carries just for fun. This more than doubles his season total in points – he had just 27.3 through 5 games going into Week 6. Since the Vikings rough defeat in Chicago Week 4, they have put up 66 points in just two games. During that time, Kirk Cousins has 2 300+ yard games to go along with 6 TDs and just one pick. It turns out that the Vikings can’t just run the ball all game, like they did early in the season. They need to pass it as well, thus giving their offense balance. Déjà vu, no?