Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re finally almost through the bye weeks, but this is one last week where you may need to find some fill-ins. We’ve made it through 10 weeks so far, so in most formats there are just 3 weeks left of the regular season. You should have a pretty good idea of where you stand heading into the home stretch. Do you have to win out? Are you just jockeying for seeding heading into the playoffs? While these things can affect how you set your lineup, don’t go too crazy trying to play upside guys and shoot the moon. Taking big swings can result in big hits (see Rex Burkhead), but it can also result in big misses (see Paul Richardson). The best way to win at this time of year isn’t much different than it is in the early weeks, with one caveat: Pay attention to the weather reports. Cold and snow have a way of deflating the passing game and boosting the running game.
It was an interesting week for the rookie crop in week 10. DeShone Kizer, Austin Ekeler, Alvin Kamara, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Christian McCaffrey all had banner days. Leonard Fournette, Tarik Cohen, Aaron Jones, and Corey Davis weren’t quite as fortunate. There will be more ups & downs to be had this week, so let’s take a look at how things shape up for the rookies in week 11…
Rookies to Start:
RB Kareem Hunt, KC (Wk. 11: @NYG): Hunt has clearly failed lately to reach the lofty heights he was hitting with ease the first few weeks of the season. Hopefully, the bye week is just what the doctor ordered. If it’s not, then maybe the New York Giants are. The Giants have been in the middle of the pack in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs, but they have allowed 269 rushing yards and 3 scores to the position in the past 2 games, and rank just 27th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. The Chiefs should be able to play from ahead and pound the ball. Kansas City is a 10-point road favorite and Andy Reid teams are 16-2 in the game following the bye week in his career. It all adds up to a get-right spot for Hunt, who is long overdue for one. He should be an RB1 this week, and should absolutely be in all season-long lineups. I would understand, however, if you were gun-shy about paying up in DFS formats.
RB Alvin Kamara, NO (Wk. 11: vs. Was.): The Redskins have been decent against running backs this season, allowing the 12th-fewest points per game to the position (all scoring numbers are in PPR format), but you have to continue to ride Kamara’s hot streak this week. In 5 games since the team traded Adrian Peterson, Alvin has been the RB22, RB12, RB9, RB1, and RB4. You can’t sit AK-41 in season-long leagues. I’d consider fading him in DFS formats with his $7,500 price tag in DraftKings, but he’s been fantastic for the past 5 weeks now, and the Saints are a 7.5-point favorite and have the highest implied team total of the week.
RB Leonard Fournette, JAX (Wk. 11: @Cle.): I know Fournette was a huge let down last week, and despite drawing the 0-9 Browns this week, this matchup is actually a lot worse than the one Fournette just faced. The Browns allow the 10th-fewest RB points per game, and rank 2nd in run defense DVOA. I still expect the Jaguars to lean heavily on Fournette and the run game with Allen Hurns already ruled out for the week. That volume should be enough to make Leonard a usable asset. He’s still handled at least 16 touches in every game he’s been active for, and scored double-digit PPR points in every game but last week’s. I’d probably set expectations for more of an RB2 day than RB1, and I’d be unlikely to use him at his price tag in DFS lineups, but he should probably remain locked-in for season-long leagues.
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT (Wk. 11: vs. Ten.): I was nervous that the volume wouldn’t be there for JuJu last week with the Steelers a heavy favorite in Indy. Things didn’t quite go the way Vegas predicted. The Steelers played from behind for much of the day and JuJu actually outscored Antonio Brown and finished as the weekly WR11. He gets another favorable matchup this week, and one that I expect will also remain competitive throughout. The Titans allow the 9th-most WR points per game, and they rank a miserable 29th in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing team’s WR2. Tennessee boasts a better run defense than pass defense, so that should keep the Steelers throwing enough for JJSS to at least return WR3 value. He’s handled 17 targets in the last 2 games after being officially elevated above Martavis Bryant on the depth chart.
TE Evan Engram, NYG (Wk. 11: vs. KC): The Chiefs aren’t a great matchup for tight ends, allowing the 8th-fewest points per game to the position, but you can’t sit Engram regardless of matchup. Since Odell Beckham and Brandon Marshall were lost for the season, Engram has been the weekly TE3, TE4, TE4, and TE5. He’s seen at least 7 targets in all 4 of those games, and scored a touchdown in each as well. Unless your starting tight end is Travis Kelce, it’s hard to justify sitting Engram this week. You could even flex him if you do have Kelce and lack a solid WR or RB option.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Mitch Trubisky, CHI (Wk. 11: vs. Det.): Trubisky had his best game of the season last week, throwing for nearly 300 yards and a TD against one of the worst secondaries in the league, and he was still just the weekly QB14. That doesn’t exactly scream “Upside” in a week where he gets to face a tougher secondary, but I think he could be in play as a 2-QB league streaming option. It’s kind of a mess at the bottom of the QB rankings these days, and despite the Lions ranking 10th in pass defense DVOA, they’ve allowed Brett Hundley to finish as the QB13 and DeShone Kizer to finish as the QB6 in the last two weeks. I like Detroit to play from ahead in this one, so the volume should be there for Mitch to flirt with QB2 value.
RB Jamaal Williams, GB (Wk. 11: vs. Bal.): Williams will be a reasonable option this week based on volume alone. Aaron Jones is already ruled out, and it sounds like Ty Montgomery will miss this game as well. In the 4 games Brett Hundley has played, the Packers’ running backs are averaging 26 touches per game. The matchup isn’t all that imposing, with the Ravens ranking 19th in run defense DVOA and allowing the 16th-most RB fantasy points per game. They’re a bit more imposing with nose tackle Brandon Williams back healthy, but as long as Green Bay stays in this game, Jamaal Williams is a reasonable flex option if you’re in need of help this week.
RB Joe Mixon, CIN (Wk. 11: @Den.): I don’t really know what to say about Mixon at this point. His offensive line has been bad, and the Bengals haven’t been committed to establishing the run. Even with Jeremy Hill on injured reserve, Mixon was limited to just 9 carries in a game where the 2 teams were never separated by more than 8 points. Since the team’s bye in week 6, Mixon is averaging 10 carries and 33.5 yards per game. He’s managed to salvage his fantasy games with TDs and a long screen pass, but there really isn’t much of a ceiling here. This week’s matchup is a brutal one for Mixon too. The Broncos currently allow the 11th-fewest RB points per game, but they were first in the league before getting shredded by Philadelphia and New England for 92.8 PPR points in the past 2 weeks. Those teams both have much better offenses than the Bengals. Denver still ranks 1st in run defense DVOA, and will be excited to face an offense that has struggled as much and Cincy’s has. Mixon’s production keeps him in the RB2/flex discussion, but there is more risk of a dud this week than usual.
WR Corey Davis, TEN (Wk. 11: @Pit.): Davis’s game last week nearly included his first career TD, but he fumbled on his way into the end zone. The final fantasy line wasn’t exciting, but there is a lot to be excited about going forward. Davis played the same number of snaps as Rishard Matthews, and he was targeted a team-high 10 times. I’d expect him to continue to see a great deal of volume moving forward. The matchup this week isn’t a good one on paper, with the Steelers allowing the 4th-fewest WR points per game, but they might struggle a bit with Joe Haden out for the season. If Davis is targeted 8+ times again, he’s firmly on the WR3 radar for this week, and the schedule moving forward gets much easier. The Titans draw the Colts, Texans, Cardinals and 49ers from weeks 12-15. If Davis is already owned in your league, and doesn’t post a strong game in week 11, it would be a great opportunity to try and deal for him if you have a late trade deadline.
WR Cooper Kupp, LAR (Wk. 11: @Min.): Kupp is overdue for a TD considering Goff has thrown for 7 TDs in the past 2 weeks and Kupp has as many red zone targets as the rest of the team combined for the year, but he’s continued to show a floor that won’t kill you when he doesn’t find the end zone. Granted, 8.4 and 10.7 points aren’t totals to get excited about in PPR scoring, but tell that to someone who started Marvin Jones or John Brown last week. His target share continues to give him that stable floor with some TD upside. The Vikings are a decent matchup this week. Robert Woods likely has the best individual matchup against the burnable Trae Waynes, but Minnesota ranks 20th in pass defense DVOA on throws to opposing WR3s (or any other non-WR1 or 2s). Kupp is a flex/WR3 option as usual.
Rookies to Sit:
QB DeShone Kizer, CLE (Wk. 11: vs. Jax.): Jacksonville has allowed the fewest passing TDs in the league (6) and the 5th-fewest QB rushing yards. Only 3 QBs have managed to even post 10 points against them this season. Kizer is a shaky play in good matchups. This is a terrible one. I’d love to see him build on last week’s performance, but it probably isn’t happening this week.
RB Samaje Perine, WAS (Wk. 11: @NO): Perine should be the early down back for Washington for the foreseeable future with Rob Kelley hitting IR this week, but we’ve seen this play out a few times this year, and the results haven’t been great. Samaje has handled 10+ touches in 4 games this year, and in those games he’s averaged 16 touches and 8.2 PPR points per game. He topped 10 points just once, against the lowly 49ers. The Saints are in the middle of the pack in terms of fantasy points allowed to RBs (allow 14th fewest per game), but during their 7-game win streak they’ve given up 18.9 points per game to the position. That would rank 3rd-best in the league if it were over the full season. Perine should handle a decent amount of volume, so you could test your luck if you’re desperate in a non-PPR league, but I wouldn’t.
RB Wayne Gallman, NYG (Wk. 11: vs. KC): In week 10, Gallman basically appeared on the outside looking in for this running back rotation. Shane Vereen led the team in RB snaps and handled most of the passing down work, and Orleans Darkwa handled the early downs. If Gallman is going to be limited to a change of pace role behind Darkwa, there’s no reason to start him this week, especially with the Chiefs allowing the 6th-fewest RB points per game.
RB D’Onta Foreman, HOU (Wk. 11: vs. Ari.): Foreman got the start last week and handled the first carry out of the Texans’ backfield, but he was out-touched 12-7 and out-gained 74-18 by Lamar Miller. Nothing has changed in the pecking order of this backfield despite Foreman’s start last week. There isn’t enough work behind Miller to make D’Onta usable in this lackluster offense.
RB Tarik Cohen, CHI (Wk. 11: vs. Det.): The Bears’ offensive coordinator referred to Cohen as “our best playmaker” just 4 short weeks ago. Since then his usage has dried up. He has still turned in a couple respectable lines thanks to a few big plays, but it was ugly for Tarik in week 10. The Bears seem to insist on using Benny Cunningham over Cohen when Cohen is healthy. Maybe that changes down the stretch if the Bears continue to lose games, but you can’t bank on it. According to the Bears’ coaches, he needs to improve his pass protection to increase his playing time in the hurry-up offense. There’s always a chance at a long TD for Cohen, but his lack of snaps and touches makes him unusable right now.
WR Kenny Golladay, DET (Wk. 11: @Chi.): Golladay finally returned last weekend, and he made an impact with 64 receiving yards. The issue is that he put up those yards on just 11 offensive snaps. That number may increase going forward, but Golladay will remain a boom-or-bust option that will rely on deep balls. He has just 9 catches on the year in 4 appearances, and has catches of 50, 45, and 24 yards among them. The other 6 catches amount to 47 total yards. 71.5% of his fantasy production has come on his 3 longest catches. The Bears have done a pretty good job of limiting the deep ball, allowing the 5th-fewest 20+ yard completions in the league, and they rank 10th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws. There’s always upside with a big-play threat like Kenny G, but I don’t like his odds of hitting that upside this week.
WR Dede Westbrook, JAX (Wk. 11: @Cle.): Westbrook is expected to be activated from IR this week, but the Jaguars have expressed concern that he might not be ready to be fully unleashed. They’ll need him to play a role with Allen Hurns ruled out, but there is a real chance he’s eased in. The Browns will likely still lean on the run game with Fournette, and Marqise Lee is still option number 1 in the passing game. Marcedes Lewis should also factor in with the Browns allowing the 3rd-most TE points per game. There’s likely a 3rd player ahead of Dede in the target pecking order as well (see the Sleeper section to find out who). Even if Westbrook is activated, I’d be hesitant to get him into lineups this week.
WR Zay Jones, BUF (Wk. 11: @LAC): There is just too much in flux with the Bills to trust Zay this week. Buffalo has made a QB switch, and will likely lean heavily on the run game. We still haven’t seen what Zay’s target share will look like with Kelvin Benjamin in the lineup, and Buffalo also has Charles Clay healthy now. I’d probably take a wait-and-see approach before getting Jones into any lineups.
WR Mike Williams, LAC (Wk. 11: vs. Buf.): This isn’t a good spot to expect a Mike Williams breakout. The Chargers haven’t been utilizing their WRs a ton, and may have Kellen Clemens starting at QB on Sunday. Wide receivers were targeted a total of 14 times last week for the Chargers, and Williams received just 2 of them. If any wideout is going to get going this week for them, it’s Keenan Allen. Buffalo ranks #7 in pass defense DVOA on throws to the WR2, and #1 on throws to the WR3 or lower. There is very little upside here this week for Mike Williams.
WR Chris Godwin, TB (Wk. 11: @Mia.): Godwin will be relegated to the bench with the Mike Evans suspension over. It was nice to see him come through with a 5-68 line in his first extended playing time of the year. If anything were to happen to Evans, Godwin would immediately become a WR3 going forward. As long as Evans is healthy though, there’s no reason to hold on to him.
TE David Njoku, CLE (Wk. 11: vs. Jax.): The Jaguars have allowed double-digit points to tight ends just once in the past 6 games after allowing 12+ points to them in each of the first 3 weeks. Kizer played his best game of the season last week, and TE has been the best place to attack the Jacksonville secondary, but Njoku’s limited volume makes him impossible to trust this week. He’d need a TD to be relevant, and I’d be mildly surprised if Cleveland throws for any scores.
TE Adam Shaheen, CHI (Wk. 11: vs. Det.): Trubisky had to throw for nearly 300 yards to get Shaheen involved, even with Zach Miller and Dion Sims both out, and he was still just the TE21 for the week. I’d expect Sims back since it was an ‘illness’ and not an injury that kept him out. That should make Shaheen an afterthought again. If Sims sits, Shaheen still isn’t worth a start.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Nathan Peterman, BUF (Wk. 11: @LAC): If you had asked me a week ago, I’d have guessed Davis Webb would be the next rookie QB to see significant playing time, but the fact that the Giants haven’t announced HC Bob McAdoo’s job status means he’ll likely be coaching to try and save it. That means Eli Manning keeps starting. An interim coach might have been directed to see what the team has in Webb. Instead it’s the Bills, who have set Tyrod Taylor up to be benched since the offseason that made a QB switch. The Bills forced Taylor to take a pay cut to stay on the team, then brought in an offensive coordinator whose scheme isn’t a great fit for Taylor’s skill set. Then they jettisoned ALL of his WRs. Taylor’s at his best improvising and making splash plays downfield, but his two best downfield targets, Sammy Watkins and Marquise Goodwin, were sent packing. The final nail in Taylor’s coffin was the trade of Marcell Dareus. Prior to the trade, the Bills were playing pretty well and sitting at 5-2, but since the trade their run defense has fallen off a cliff. They’ve allowed 492 rushing yards and 9 rushing TDs in the last two weeks, both ugly losses, and Taylor is being turned into a scapegoat to make way for Peterman. Peterman is admittedly better suited for the Buffalo offense, but he’s not much more than a game manager. I list him here not as a sleeper for this week, but as a stash in deep 2-QB leagues. The matchup with the Chargers isn’t a good one, but he has a very favorable schedule that follows. He’s worth a flyer in 2-QB formats, especially dynasty leagues.
RB Austin Ekeler, LAC (Wk. 11: vs. Buf.): This is absolutely a point-chasing after Ekeler’s RB3 finish in week 10, but as I mentioned above with Peterman, the Bills run defense has been a dumpster fire of late and Ekeler has seen double-digit touches in 2 of his last 3 games. His late fumble last week probably doesn’t help his case moving forward, but I expect him to still have a sizable role spelling Melvin Gordon the rest of the way. 10 touches against this Buffalo defense could put him on the RB2 radar, especially in PPR formats. He’s risky since it’s not impossible that the Chargers could scheme him out of the offense altogether this week, but I like him as a flex option in deeper leagues.
RB Corey Clement, PHI (Wk. 11: @Dal.): If Tyron Smith is out again this week, the Dallas offense is in trouble, and their defense isn’t good enough to slow down the Eagles. There is a real chance this game gets out of hand in that scenario. Clement has already proven he can be effective in mop up time, and has handled 23 touches in two blowout wins over the 49ers and Broncos. If he gets the opportunity in this one, the Cowboys rank just 26th in run defense DVOA and 19th in pass defense DVOA on throws to RBs. There is some decent upside for DFS tournaments or if you’re desperate in deeper leagues. Just make sure Smith is out before pulling the trigger.
WR Keelan Cole, JAX (Wk. 11: @Cle.): I mentioned above that I don’t like Dede Westbrook in his first game back, and a big part of the reason why is Keelan Cole. Jaguars beat reporter Michael DiRocco said that Westbrook won’t be a big part of the team’s game plan even if he’s active, and Hurns has already been ruled out. That leaves Cole as the WR2 with the Jaguars facing the Browns’ pass funnel defense. They rank 2nd in the league in run defense DVOA, but just 27th in pass defense DVOA. If the Browns manage to slow Fournette, the Jaguars will have to throw it, and Cole has seen his role increase of late and has shown an ability to make big plays. He’s averaging 21.5 yards per catch on the season and has been targeted 16 times in the past 3 games. He’s totaled 173 receiving yards in those 3 contests. Cole is worth a shot as a punt option in DFS tournaments or as a flex in deep leagues.
WR Mack Hollins, PHI (Wk. 11: @Dal.): I mention Hollins here because I continue to believe that he eventually overtakes Torrey Smith for a starting spot in Philadelphia. He’s caught 9 of 10 targets for the season, and he actually played just 1 fewer snap than Smith in week 9 before the team’s bye. Hollins only caught 1 pass in that game, but the Cowboys’ secondary is much more burnable than the Broncos’. Hollins isn’t anything more than a GPP tournament punt play this week, but he remains an intriguing dynasty stash.
TE OJ Howard, TB (Wk. 11: @Mia.): This week is a great spot for OJ in DFS tournaments. He played his 2nd-highest snap count of the year last week while Cameron Brate played his lowest total. It was also the 2nd week in a row that Howard ran more pass routes than Brate. So far, that hasn’t amounted to much fantasy production for Howard, but Brate has only been targeted twice in those 2 weeks. Miami has allowed TDs to the tight end position in 3 of their last 4 games, and gave up 126 receiving yards to the TEs in the game where they kept them out of the end zone. With Howard’s increasing snaps and Brate’s diminishing role, this could be a spot to roll the dice on OJ.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you secure a crucial week 11 victory. Keep close tabs on the injury report this week if you have any players who may be affected, and make sure to check back before kickoff to make sure there are no surprise inactives. If you have any questions for me, or just want to yell at me about anything above you can find me on twitter at @Shawn_Foss. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Three weeks of the NFL season are now in the books, and the fantasy landscape is starting to really take shape. It was a messy week 3 for most members of the rookie crop not named Najee Harris or Ja’Marr Chase, but that doesn’t mean we can’t learn from it. Week 3 may have been the worst week we’ve seen from a rookie QB class in all the time I’ve been writing this column. Davis Mills had the most efficient week of any of the rookie starting QBs as he completed 68% of his passes and threw a TD with no turnovers. The four 1st-round QBs who started combined to go 77-for-140 (55% complete) for 717 yards (5.1 yards per attempt), 3 touchdowns, and 9 turnovers. They also were collectively sacked 19 times. The true standouts in futility were Justin Fields (30% complete, 9 sacks taken) and Trevor Lawrence (4 turnovers). Things should get better for those guys going forward, but there is still a learning curve ahead. Week 3 also saw poor fantasy performances from Kyle Pitts, Rondale Moore, and Trey Sermon, but Javonte Williams managed to break through and score his first TD as a pro. With all of that said, I’m not here to live in the past. I’m here to talk about what to expect in week 4.
A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game references and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 4…
RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 4: @GB): Najee did something in week 3 that has been accomplished by only 1 other running back in the last 3 decades. He was targeted an astonishing NINETEEN times, hauling in 14 of them for 102 receiving yards en route to an RB5 finish for the week. Only Alvin Kamara has been targeted that many times in a game since targets have been tracked (since 1992). There were a couple factors that contributed to the huge total. Diontae Johnson, who usually vacuums up a large number of short targets, was sidelined, and JuJu Smith-Schuster left with injury during the game. They also were behind by multiple scores for most of the game and had to keep throwing. With Diontae practicing in a limited capacity Wednesday, he seems on track to play this week. That should make it tough for Harris to approach that number again, but it’s good to see how much they trust him in the passing game. Najee’s rushing efficiency still leaves something to be desired behind this offensive line, but he’s played 95% of the offensive snaps or more in each game. This week he gets to face the Packers, who rank 25th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat and have allowed 6 running back receptions per game. Another top-5 finish is far from assured, but you can feel comfortable firing up Harris as an RB1 in all formats.
WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 4: vs. Jax.): With his two touchdown grabs last weekend, Ja’Marr Chase became the first 21-year-old rookie to ever catch for 4 touchdowns in his first 3 games (breaking Randy Moss’s previous record of 3 scores). Chase has now caught at least 1 touchdown in 15 of the last 18 games the pair has played together. His connection with Joe Burrow has clearly picked up right where it left off when they were teammates at LSU. There are some warning signs to beware of with Chase, though. The Bengals are playing at the 2nd-slowest pace in the league in neutral game scripts (3rd-slowest pace overall), and they’re running the ball a LOT. Cincy has gone to the air on just 34.4% of their offensive plays when they’re leading on the scoreboard. Those factors have led to the Bengals averaging just 25 pass attempts per game through the first 3 weeks. They figure to be leading a lot again Thursday as a touchdown favorite against the hapless Jaguars. Chase has shown through the first 3 weeks that he doesn’t need a ton of volume to post a big day. He’s averaging nearly 14 yards per target and a touchdown every 4 targets so far. The Jaguars, who rank 30th in pass defense DVOA, are unlikely to be the team to curtail that efficiency from Chase. With Tee Higgins out again, even a low passing volume game from Burrow should lead to 6 or 7 targets for Ja’Marr, and that should be plenty to be in the WR2/3 range for this week in most formats.
WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 4: vs. KC): Smith has been largely a letdown if you’ve started him the last couple weeks, but I like this as a spot for him to get right. Through the first 3 weeks, he’s seen 22.3% of the targets and 40.6% of the intended air yards in this passing game. The Chiefs rank dead last in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 8th-most fantasy points per game to receivers. The targets are going to continue to come DeVonta’s way, and Philly should be forced to throw plenty as a touchdown underdog. Obviously, there is risk here with Smith, but I really like him to have a big day and finish as a WR2 against Kansas City.
TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 4: vs. Was.): You can’t overreact to one down week for Pitts. His usage levels are still elite. He saw his highest route participation (88%) and snap rate (84%) of the season in week 3. If those things continue, the targets are going to follow. This week he faces a Washington defense that ranks 28th in pass defense DVOA, and has allowed the 16th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends while facing a murderer’s row of Jared Cook, Kaden Smith, Kyle Rudolph, and Dawson Knox in the first 3 weeks. If those guys managed to make this look like a middling tight end defense, you shouldn’t be scared to fire up Pitts again. He has a great chance at this being a breakout game, and he could be a bargain in DFS with a price tag of just $5,000 on DraftKings.
QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 4: vs. Det.): Obviously if you started Fields last week, this isn’t a well you want to dip back into, but it should be a more productive week for Fields this time out if Dalton isn’t cleared to play. Bill Lazor is going to take over the play-calling duties from Matt Nagy this week. Last season, that happened 9 games into the season. In the 9 games Nagy called, the Bears averaged 19.8 points and 302 yards per game. In the 7 that Lazor called, they averaged 27.7 and 349 yards. Fields also gets to face a very bad Detroit defense that ranks 31st in pass defense DVOA and has given up the 10th-most QB points per game. The switch to Lazor isn’t going to fix everything that ails the Bears’ offense overnight, but it’s a step in the right direction. If you can stomach starting Justin Fields again this week after what he did last Sunday, he has a great chance at finishing as a top-15 QB against the Lions.
RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 4: vs. Sea.): Mitchell is still working through a shoulder injury that kept him out in week 3, and his status is still up in the air for this one. If he’s able to play, the matchup is a juicy one. The 49ers face a Seahawks defense that has been struggling at all levels. Seattle has allowed over 135 rushing yards, over 80 receiving yards, and a whopping 9 receptions to running backs per game. They’ve allowed nearly 4 more points per game to the position than the team allowing the 2nd-most RB points (Miami). To be fair to the Seahawks, Derrick Henry did a big chunk of the damage that’s been done against them, but they’ve struggled to slow down Nyheim Hines and Alexander Mattison as well. We know the 49ers want to run the ball. If Mitchell starts, don’t look for him to hit those stats the Seahawks are allowing on his own, but he’s got obvious top-15 upside in a great matchup.
RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 4: @Dal.): Hubbard has been THE guy to target on the waiver wire this week after Christian McCaffrey suffered a hamstring strain that will likely keep him out for a couple games. There’s a chance Chuba shares this backfield with Royce Freeman, but if his usage after McCaffrey went out last week is any indication, Chuba is the player you want here. Hubbard played 73% of the offensive snaps after CMC got hurt and ran a route on 72% of the teams dropbacks. The Cowboys’ run defense has been better this season, ranking 12th in run defense DVOA and allowing the 7th-fewest RB points per game, but this is an offense that funnels targets to the running back position. We saw it last season when Mike Davis stepped into a 70-target season in place of McCaffrey last year, and Chuba’s 5 targets in week 3 are evidence that will continue now. If Chuba gets 5+ targets again this week, that receiving production should insulate him against a lackluster rushing output. He should be a high-end RB3 with RB2 upside in Dallas.
RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 4: vs. Bal.): Javonte found the end zone for the first time in his young career last weekend, but also lost his first fumble. We saw some flashes of his talent, but ultimately until he pulls away from Melvin Gordon, you’ll have to look for favorable matchups to fire him up rather than plugging him in every week. This week isn’t a great one to fire him up. The Ravens have been somewhat vulnerable to running backs, allowing the 7th-most RB points per game, but a big chunk of that production has been due to rushing touchdowns, which can be a little fluky, and receiving output. Baltimore has given up 5 rushing scores, with 4 of them coming from 2 yards out or closer. The Broncos may not get any chances in that close. Baltimore has also given up 7 receptions and 65 receiving yards per game to opposing backs. Javonte and Gordon have combined for fewer than 5 targets per game so far. The Ravens rank 10th in run defense DVOA on the year, so it won’t be so easy for Javonte to produce if he doesn’t find the end zone or catch a handful of passes. I’d view him as more of a dicey flex this week.
WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 4: vs. Ind.): I warned last week that Waddle was getting shorter targets from Jacoby Brissett, and that it would likely take a lot of them for him to post a solid week 3 performance against the Raiders. He got a lot of them. It took 13 targets for Waddle to finish as the PPR WR19 with a 12-58-0 line. In the two games where it has been mostly Brissett at QB, Waddle has averaged fewer than 3 air yards per target. It’s a great sign that he’s been so heavily targeted by Brissett, and that could continue in week 4, but it’s a similar outlook for the rookie. He’s going to need significant volume to return value unless he manages to find the end zone. The Colts have struggled to defense WRs, allowing the 5th-most points per game to the position, and slot corner Kenny Moore has just a coverage grade of just 42.5 from PFF so far after being one of the better slot corners in the league a year ago. Waddle has WR3 upside in PPR formats this week.
QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 4: @Cin.): Lawrence has shown some good through the first 3 weeks of the season, and a lot of bad. The top pick in the 2021 NFL Draft has turned the ball over 9 times in the first 3 games and has only managed to offset those mistakes with positive production once. After finishing as the QB12 in week 1, he’s been outside the top-25 in each of the last two weeks. This week he gets to face a Cincinnati defense that is allowing the 10th-fewest QB points per game and ranks 8th in pass defense DVOA. It’s a good sign that he’s been using his legs more in recent weeks, but this isn’t a spot to roll him out unless you’re desperate in a 2-QB league. The Bengals’ defense is a good week 4 streaming option.
QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 4: vs. Ten.): On paper, it looks like Wilson gets a softer matchup than he’s faced the last two weeks, but those ‘on paper’ numbers can be deceiving. The Titans have allowed the 12th-most QB points per game and rank 22nd in pass defense DVOA, but they were shredded by two of the game’s best quarterbacks in the first two weeks (Kyler Murray & Russell Wilson). They were much better defensively in week 3 as they held Carson Wentz to fewer than 8 fantasy points. I’ve painstakingly documented the Jets’ inability to protect Wilson in the pocket in past Rookie Reports, and Tennessee has the 3rd-highest pressure rate in the league. Taking heat from the defense is going to be a way of life for Wilson at least until Mekhi Becton returns. Wilson is also likely to be missing #2 receiver Elijah Moore this week. He should be at least a little better than he was the past two weeks, but Wilson isn’t a good option even in two QB leagues right now.
QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 4: @Buf.): Mills held up pretty well against a tough Panthers’ defense on Thursday night, throwing for 168 yards and a touchdown without turning the ball over, but he faces just as stiff a test this week against Buffalo. The Bills have allowed the 5th-fewest QB points per game and rank 2nd in pass defense DVOA through 3 weeks. It feels sort of unfair to have a rookie make his first two starts against the defenses that rank 1st (Carolina) and 2nd (Buffalo) in pass defense DVOA, but Mills will have to make do. Mills’ performance last week landed him a QB27 finish, and you’d be hard-pressed to expect much more from him this week. He shouldn’t be near your lineups.
QB Trey Lance, SF (Wk. 4: vs. Sea.): It’s the same story again with Lance this week. If he isn’t starting, the best you could hope for is a couple red zone scores in a game playing in a sub package. He’s got a zero-point floor and a 12-point ceiling unless he’s thrust into more action than we’ve seen. That’s not enough to sniff the QB2 range, even against a shreddable defense like Seattle’s.
RB Larry Rountree, LAC (Wk. 4: vs. LV): Through the first 3 weeks Rountree is averaging about 14 snaps and 5 touches per game, and the Raiders rank 9th in run defense DVOA so far. There’s no reason to consider the rookie in any upcoming weeks unless his role grows, or something happens to Austin Ekeler.
RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 4: @Min.): I mentioned Felton last week as a guy to monitor in case he managed to steal some slot work from Rashard Higgins with Jarvis Landry out. I just wanted to update that and let you know that he didn’t. Felton played just 11 snaps to 40 for Higgins. He did out-target Higgins 3 to 2, but those targets turned into just 2 catches and 13 yards. There isn’t enough of a role for Felton to be worth rostering right now.
RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 4: vs. Jax.): Evans is slowly getting more involved in the Bengals’ offense in passing situations spelling Joe Mixon, but this is a low-volume offense right now. Evans played just 5 snaps in week 3, but that was good enough for an 11% snap share, and with 2 catches for 26 yards he managed to outscore some committee backs who are rostered in most 12-team leagues (Devin Singletary, Ty Johnson, Latavius Murray, Damien Harris, Ty’Son Williams). Evans should remain on the wire for now, but his usage warrants continued monitoring.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 4: vs. TB): Stevenson has been a healthy scratch in each of the last two games after losing a fumble in week 1, and although you’d have to expect him to suit up this week with James White sidelined for the year, I still wouldn’t expect a big role. Damien Harris will still be the lead rushing back, and it will likely be Brandon Bolden or JJ Taylor picking up the slack that White left behind. Rhamondre might need an injury to Harris to see a real spike in value. Even if he were to get some carries this week, Tampa has allowed the 7th-fewest running back rushing yards and 9th-fewest running back fantasy points thus far. It would be tough sledding to produce against this vaunted front.
WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 4: @LAR): Moore demonstrated last week just how volatile he is for fantasy given his current usage. He’s playing as the Arizona WR4, and that means there will be some floor weeks. Week 3 was one of them. DeAndre Hopkins was battling a rib injury and worked mostly as a decoy, but the Cardinals used more Maxx Williams instead of letting the Hopkins injury open more playing time for Rondale. This week’s matchup is an interesting one. The Rams have one of the best cover corners in the NFL in Jalen Ramsey but have deployed him in the slot 55% of the time despite the Bucs being the only team they’ve faced with a formidable slot receiver. If that trend continues, look for Nuk Hopkins to be heavily targeted in this one, and Rondale to be competing with AJ Green and Christian Kirk for any leftover targets. Hopkins has just a 17% target share so far, but I expect this to be the week where that number goes back up. I’d be hesitant to start Moore as anything more than a boom-or-bust WR4.
WR Terrace Marshall, CAR (Wk. 4: @Dal.): With Christian McCaffrey sidelined this week, there may be a little more passing volume that usually goes to CMC that could be re-distributed to the WRs, but if Marshall doesn’t start to see some targets further downfield, it’s hard to see him being very useful in your fantasy lineup. Marshall has an aDOT of just 6 yards and is playing fewer snaps and running fewer routes than teammate Robby Anderson despite being targeted more often. I’d expect the target pendulum to swing back toward Robby some weeks, and it’ll be hard to rely on Marshall as more than a WR4 option in deeper leagues.
WR Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 4: @Atl.): Brown has been a big disappointment so far this season, posting negative scrimmage yards in two of Washington’s first 3 games. He was targeted just twice last week in a game where Washington threw only 24 times despite losing by more than 20 points. This team does not want to let Taylor Heinicke throw the ball unless they must, and he hasn’t been willing to push the ball downfield where Dyami thrives. Heinicke averages just 7.3 intended air yards per attempt. I would’ve had a little bit of hope for Dyami this week if it looked like AJ Terrell was going to be out again, but he’s practicing in full as of Wednesday (though still in the concussion protocol). The two starting corners with him out (TJ Green and Fabian Moreau) have each allowed a passer rating above 130 on throws into the coverage, and the Falcons have allowed 10 completions of 20+ yards in the first 3 weeks. If Terrell is back, that’s who Brown should square off with most often, and Terrell has allowed just 3.3 yards per target and a 43.8 passer rating into his coverage. I’d have some interest in Dyami as a cheap dart throw in DFS tournaments if Terrell doesn’t clear the protocol, but otherwise this is a player I’d be avoiding this week.
WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 4: @NO): Toney may see a spike in opportunity this week with both Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton appearing to be on the wrong side of questionable, but it’s a trap. He was on the field for 66% of the offensive snaps in week 3, and managed just 3 targets, 2 catches, and 16 yards. He is the only WR or TE in the league with a negative average target depth so far this season. Those aren’t the kind of targets that are going to return fantasy value even if he sees a few extra this week. The Saints rank 6th in pass defense DVOA and slot corner Chauncey Gardner-Johnson is allowing just 5 yards per target on throws into his coverage.
WR Dee Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 4: @SF): Eskridge is likely to get cleared from the concussion protocol and return this week, but there really aren’t any formats where you can feel comfortable firing him up in fantasy. He ran behind Freddy Swain on the depth chart in week 1, and the Seahawks’ top WRs should be able to have their way against a depleted 49ers secondary that likely will be without Josh Norman this week. If you’re playing the showdown slate for this game, Eskridge does have some appeal with just a $200 price tag on DraftKings. The team did make an effort to get the ball in his hands in week 1, he’s got the wheels to be a home run threat, and Gerald Everett may miss this game and open up some opportunity for the other ancillary players in the offense. The 49ers rank a middling 16th in pass defense DVOA, but have been losing DBs each week to injury.
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 4: @Chi.): St. Brown was already seeing very limited production in the first two weeks while he was playing about 60% of the snaps. That snap share dropped to just over 40% in week 3, and his production dropped to 1 catch for 2 yards on 1 target. He has a chance to see a handful of targets when the Lions play from behind, but he isn’t going to be as involved in closer games, and the Lions are just a 3-point underdog this week on the road in Chicago. Kalif Raymond and Quintez Cephus both appear to be ahead of him in the WR pecking order.
WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 4: vs. Ten.): In case you weren’t aware of it, Moore suffered a concussion against the Broncos last weekend and looks likely to miss this game. There is a chance that he has some sneaky upside if he’s able to get cleared. The Titans allow the 3rd-most WR points per game so far and Moore was targeted 6 times in the first 3 quarters last week before getting hurt. With that said, this Jets’ passing game isn’t one I want to put any faith in when it comes to fantasy outside of maybe Corey Davis.
TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 4: @GB): Freiermuth made good on my claim that he had sneaky upside last week by turning 5 targets into 3 catches for 22 yards and a touchdown, good for a TE12 finish. The downside is that he played his lowest snap share of the season, and it looks like target hog Diontae Johnson has a good chance of returning to the lineup this week. Green Bay looks like a soft matchup for tight ends, allowing the 3rd-most TE points per game so far, but they’ve already faced two of the game’s bests at the position in TJ Hockenson and George Kittle. They did also allow 2 scores to Juwan Johnson in the opener, so there is hope for Freiermuth, but I wouldn’t bank on a repeat performance if Diontae returns and the rookie continues to play behind Eric Ebron this week. Diontae and Najee Harris will see most of the shorter targets that could go Freiermuth’s way.
QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 4: vs. TB): The Saints made Jones look bad last week, but he can’t dwell on that performance with Tom Brady and the Bucs coming to town on Sunday night. The Bucs are favored by 6.5 points in this one, and they’ve got one of the stoutest defensive fronts in the NFL. I don’t expect Damien Harris to have much success on the ground, and that means Jones may have to throw a bit more than usual. The Bucs have already allowed 300+ passing yards and multiple scores in each of their first 3 games this season. I don’t think Jones is going to throw for 300, but I like his chances of padding his stats in garbage time and posting his best fantasy game of the season. He has some sneaky upside for 2-QB formats this week.
RB Trey Sermon, SF (Wk. 4: vs. Sea.): If Elijah Mitchell ends up being active for this week, disregard Sermon being listed here and feel free to ignore him this week. If Mitchell is out, however, don’t let last week’s usage and performance scare you off Sermon. Yes, it’s true that Sermon was out-snapped and out-produced by fullback Kyle Juszczyk on Sunday night. It’s also true that Juszczyk was healthy throughout the week of practice while the gameplan was installed for the week, and Sermon was in the concussion protocol. I’d expect Sermon to be much more involved in this game than he was last week if Mitchell can’t go. You can see what kind of matchup this is in the bit I wrote about Mitchell above. If the starting role is Sermon’s, he has RB2 upside for the week.
RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 4: vs. KC): As we saw last week, Gainwell is going to have a role in the Eagles’ hurry-up offense, which we will likely see more of in the 2nd half this week. The Chiefs are more than a touchdown favorite but have struggled across the board defensively in the first 3 weeks. They’ve allowed the 3rd-most RB points per game so far and rank dead last in run defense DVOA. I think Miles Sanders has a great chance at a strong game as well, but Gainwell has some upside in deep leagues in this matchup.
RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 4: vs. Ten.): The best way the Jets are going to be able to keep pressure off Zach Wilson in this game is going to be to run the ball effectively. Carter handled 75% of the Jets’ running back rush attempts last week, and I’d look for them to make more of an effort to establish the run this week against a defense that ranks 29th in run defense DVOA thus far. Carter also has receiving skills that should pad his numbers a bit, but he has a shot at posting a top-30 week if the Jets can keep from being blown out early.
WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 4: @Den.): Bateman was activated off injured reserve this week, but he doesn’t get a soft landing in his debut. If Bateman manages to suit up this weekend, he’ll face off with a Denver defense that ranks 5th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 10th-fewest WR points per game. I mention him as a player to stash this week if he hasn’t already been snatched up by someone else in your league. The Ravens have been throwing the ball at a higher rate than they have in the last couple seasons, and that could continue thanks to their makeshift backfield. Marquise Brown has been getting open effectively this year, but a few bad drops last week nearly cost the team the game. There is an opening for Bateman to work his way into the WR1 role in this offense before the season’s end. You can’t start him this week but make room for Bateman on your bench if he’s available.
TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 4: @Dal.): The Panthers traded away Dan Arnold this week, opening the door for Tremble to take on a more significant role in the offense. Ian Thomas has been the Panther TE that’s been on the field the most, but it’s Arnold who has seen two-thirds of the team TE targets come his way. That’s amounted to just 10 targets in 3 games, but Tremble should step into that role and have some TD dart throw appeal in DFS tournaments. He’s worth a stash in deeper TE-premium formats.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 4’s rookie headlines were dominated by the quarterbacks. Mac Jones played a hyper-efficient game and was a missed field goal away from stunning Tom Brady and the Bucs at Foxboro on Sunday night. Trey Lance relieved an injured Jimmy Garoppolo at halftime and posted over 20 fantasy points in a comeback attempt against Seattle. Trevor Lawrence nearly notched his first career win on Thursday (and then his head coach made headlines that overshadowed that performance), and Zach Wilson and Justin Fields did notch their first career victories on Sunday. Fields was much improved from his first start with Bill Lazor calling the plays, and Wilson played arguably his best game to-date. Fields has earned the starting job moving forward in Chicago.
It was a ho-hum week at the other positions. DeVonta Smith posted over 120 receiving yards in Big D while Kenneth Gainwell found the end zone for the second time this season. Ja’Marr Chase and Najee Harris each posted useful performances as well. Kadarius Toney made a big splash with two starters sidelined for Big Blue, and Trey Sermon topped 80 rushing yards for the 49ers. We’ll touch on all of these players and more as we take a look at what to expect from the rookie crop in week 5.
A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game references and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 5…
RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 5: vs. Phi.): Keep a close eye on the injury reports for Christian McCaffrey leading up the Panthers’ game Sunday. McCaffrey could be a true game-time decision, and if he plays you should disregard this entirely and keep him benched, but Hubbard is in line for a strong game if CMC’s hamstring injury keeps him sidelined another week. If you only look at the final numbers from last week, you may be concerned that Chuba was on the field for less than half of the offensive snaps. Don’t be. He was the clear lead back for the first 3 quarters and only gave way to Rodney Smith when they fell behind by 3 scores. He still finished the game with 15 touches and was heavily involved in the offense. The Panthers are a 3.5-point favorite this week and are unlikely to find themselves in a similar deep hole. The Eagles are a giving defense to running backs, allowing the 6th-most points per game to the position and ranking 28th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. If Hubbard is the lead guy again this week, he has legit top-12 upside.
RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 5: vs. Den.): I list Najee as a guy to start this week mostly because he’s still going to handle pretty much all of the Steelers’ backfield work. That gives him a weekly floor that’s nearly impossible to sit, but this is not going to be a ceiling week for the rookie. He should probably be left off DFS lineups as the 9th-highest priced RB on DraftKings. The Broncos have been fortunate to not face many good running backs so far, and to catch Saquon Barkley as he was being eased back into the lineup in week 1, but they still rank 9th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the fewest RB points per game in the league. Najee’s production is usually buoyed by receiving work, but no back has topped 3 receptions against the Broncos in the first 4 weeks. Harris is more of a volume based RB2 play this week.
WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 5: vs. GB): Ja’Marr Chase gets the good fortune of facing the Green Bay Packers the week after Jaire Alexander went down with injury. Alexander’s injury will put a strain on the entire Green Bay secondary, and the Pack were already ranked just 20th in pass defense DVOA with Alexander healthy. Tee Higgins may return this week, but Chase has reached double-digit fantasy points in every game so far, and Cincy will have to throw to keep pace with a Green Bay offense that’s averaging over 30 points scored per game in their last 3. Chase is a top-end WR3 this week with the upside for more.
TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 5: vs. NYJ (London)): Look, if you drafted Pitts in redraft leagues, I know you aren’t happy with the production so far, but you kind of have to ride it out for now. In shallower leagues, I wouldn’t have faulted people for toying with the idea of sitting him this week, but the news that Calvin Ridley won’t make the trip to London means you can’t do that. Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson are the two best weapons the Falcons have for that game, and both will have to be heavily involved if the Falcons want to compete. The Jets aren’t an easy matchup on paper. They’ve allowed the 8th-fewest TE points per game and rank a middling 19th in pass defense DVOA, but Pitts is running a route on 80% of the team’s dropbacks and averaging 6.5 targets per game. Don’t be shocked if this game isn’t a coming-out party for the rookie, but he should be a safe bet for 7+ targets. He’s a top-10 option at the position this week.
QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 5: vs. Atl. (London)): Just about everything that could’ve gone wrong for Wilson to start the season did go wrong. He lost his best offensive lineman to injury in week 1 and spent his first 3 games facing a gauntlet of defenses that all currently rank in the top-7 in pass defense DVOA, but he got a reprieve in week 4 against a bad Titans’ secondary, and he made the most of it. Wilson threw for nearly 300 yards and a pair of touchdowns on the way to his first career victory, and he gets an even more favorable matchup in week 5 against the Falcons in London. Atlanta has pressured the QB at the 3rd-lowest rate in the league, allowed the highest opposing passer rating, and the 3rd-most QB points per game. This is a golden opportunity for Wilson to string together back-to-back good games. There’s no reason he can’t match what he did last week, or possibly even exceed it, and I like his chances to finish as a top-15 QB for the week.
QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 5: vs. Ten.): Lawrence played his best game of the season last week, even if his fantasy totals fell a few points short of what he did in week 1. He finally played a turnover-free game and had the Jaguars on the cusp of winning a game. This week he gets to face off with a Tennessee defense that just allowed Zach Wilson to log his best game of the season. Lawrence has an opportunity to push his way into high QB2 territory if the rushing output we’ve seen from the last couple weeks continues. He’s rushed for over 20 yards in each of the last 3 games. The Titans have allowed 3 of the 4 QB’s they’ve faced to put up more than 18 fantasy points, and I like Trevor’s chances to make it 4 of 5.
QB Trey Lance, SF (Wk. 5: @Ari.): It wasn’t always pretty, but Trey Lance’s first extended action of the season showed why he can be an exciting fantasy QB. Lance entered the game at halftime and managed to put up more than 20 fantasy points in just 2 quarters of action. Yes, he did this against a bad Seahawks’ defense that aided his effort by allowing a long, busted coverage TD, but it was still a promising performance for the rookie. It’s still up in the air whether he will start in week 5, but if he does, he should be treated as a mid-level QB2 even in a tougher matchup. The Cardinals have allowed the 9th-fewest QB points per game and rank 3rd in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve yet to face a dynamic runner like Lance. The defensive personnel is a little different this year, but the Cardinals allowed more QB rushing yards than any other team in the league a year ago (they’ve allowed the 7th-most so far this year). Keep a close watch on the injury report throughout the week with Jimmy G, but don’t let the matchup scare you off starting Lance in 2-QB formats if he does get the nod.
RBs Trey Sermon & Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 5: @Ari.): I’m going to be really honest with you…I don’t have a good read on which 49ers’ back will lead the way this week if both are healthy. At this point, we still don’t know if Elijah Mitchell is going to get cleared to play. It makes things much easier if he isn’t. Sermon would be a strong RB3/Flex option in a matchup with a middling run defense in that case. The Cardinals rank 16th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 11th-most RB rushing yards per game. The threat of Lance running the ball could open up even more running lanes for the backs this week. A popular refrain I’ve heard from the fantasy community this week is that the 49ers don’t trust Sermon to play on passing downs, opting to use Kyle Juszczyk instead. I don’t really see that as a problem for Sermon since he isn’t a back that’s going to catch many passes anyway. The same thing applies to Mitchell. Sermon ran for 89 yards on 19 carries against the Seahawks last week and could see similar volume this week if Mitchell is out. If Mitchell is going to play, you’re going to have to pay close attention to the beat writers to get a true sense of which back is going to be the guy. If there is a clear-cut lead guy, he’s going to be an RB3 option in non-PPR formats. If it isn’t clear, both become much more volatile plays. We know the 49ers are going to run the ball. We just need to know which back they’re going to do that with.
RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 5: @Pit.): Williams saw more snaps than Melvin Gordon for the first time all year in week 4 and logged his lowest touch total of the season in the process. The Broncos were playing from behind for the first time all year, and that limited the RB opportunities to go around. Both Williams and Gordon were efficient with their carries (over 6 ypc each), but they just didn’t get enough of them. The Steelers’ run defense looks tough on paper. They’ve allowed the 5th-fewest RB points per game and rank 7th in run defense DVOA, but they’ve also allowed 3 different backs to average 5 or more yards per carry on 10+ carries in the first 4 weeks. They can be run on. I expect Javonte to get back above 10 carries this week, but the big question for the rookie is will his receiving usage continue? He’s pulled in 3 receptions in each of the last two weeks. If he manages to do that again this week, I like his chances to finish as a solid RB3, even in the 50/50 split with Melvin.
RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 5: vs. Atl. (London)): A matchup with the Falcons has a chance to be the ship that lifts all sails for the Jets’ offense, but I’d view Carter as more of a borderline option this week in deeper leagues. Atlanta is worse at defending the pass than the run, and he’ll still be splitting the backfield work with Ty Johnson. The Falcons have allowed the 11th-most RB points per game, but Carter’s typical dozen or so touches make him more of an RB4 in this one.
WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 5: @TB): Things were looking up for Waddle in week 3 as he was targeted 13 times, but he came crashing back to earth last Sunday with just 4 targets in a loss to the Colts. The ingredients are in place for a bounce-back this week. Will Fuller is back on the shelf (on IR with a broken finger), and the Dolphins face a matchup where the run game isn’t likely to be successful against a stout Tampa Bay front. Short passes to Waddle should be part of the gameplan to offset their inability to run the ball. Waddle, DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki have been the top weapons in a limited target tree for Jacoby Brissett, and I’d expect Waddle to see the most opportunities of that trio in this matchup. Tampa Bay has allowed the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, and Miami should be throwing a lot as a 10-point underdog. Waddle is a solid WR3/Flex option in PPR leagues and could be a bargain in DraftKings lineups with a $4,800 price tag.
WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 5: @Dal.): With starters Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton sidelined, Toney ran as the clear WR2 in this offense last weekend, and he made the most of his opportunity, hauling in 6 catches for 78 yards on 9 targets, and flashing his impressive run-after-catch skills. Both Slayton and Shepard are likely to be out again this week, so Toney should be in a similar role this Sunday. He’ll spend most of his time in the slot when the Giants go 3-wide, and he’ll mostly avoid Cowboys’ top corner Trevon Diggs, who has been a menace to QBs and receivers alike through the first four weeks. Jason Garrett hasn’t done a good job of getting Toney involved when everyone else is healthy, but he’s got no choice with others out. Kadarius should have a great chance to top 60 yards again in a matchup where the Giants will need to score to keep pace.
WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 5: @Car.): Smith got back on track last weekend, posting his first career 100-yard game, but I think it’s likely he takes a step backward this week. This figures to be a game where the Eagles won’t have to be quite so pass-happy, and the Panthers have allowed the 5th-fewest WR points per game and rank 5th in pass defense DVOA. You would think that their aggressive defensive style would allow some opportunities to beat the blitz with a big play, but just 6 teams have allowed fewer completions of 20+ yards than the Panthers. Smith is still going to see enough volume to be considered as a WR3/4 option, but I don’t expect him to be as efficient with that volume this week.
QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 5: @LV): Fields had a much better outing in his 2nd turn as a starter than he did in his first, but his fantasy performance was lacking a bit as it was the running backs who put the ball in the end zone. Fields finished with fewer than 9 fantasy points despite a promising overall day. He was still named the full-time starter for the Bears going forward. This week he battles a Raiders’ defense that appears to be improved from last season. Casey Heyward has been a huge upgrade as their CB1, and Justin Herbert is the only QB who has tallied more than 1 TD in a game against them. Fields may be asked to throw a little more this week with David Montgomery sidelined, but I wouldn’t count on a big fantasy day. The Bears have been hesitant to unleash his running ability in his first couple starts, and until we see him use his legs it’s hard to count on those rushing bonus points. I think Fields will post his best fantasy game of the season this week…but it still isn’t enough to get him into realistic consideration for a QB2 spot for most teams.
QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 5: @Hou.): Jones is coming off arguably the most effective performance of his young career last week against the Bucs…and he finished the week as the QB20. His style of play and the Patriots’ game plans just do not lend themselves to big fantasy days. Fewer than 30% of his completions on the year have gone for more than 10 yards, and he ranks 26th in yards per attempt and 30th in yards per completion among 31 qualified starters. The Texans look like a cake matchup on paper, but this is a matchup that calls for a heavy dose of Damien Harris and the run game. The Texans rank 8th in pass defense DVOA, and 31st in run defense DVOA. Houston has allowed the 6th-most QB points per game so far, but a lot of those points came from Trevor Lawrence in garbage time, Sam Darnold rushing for 2 scores, and a top-4 QB in Josh Allen picking them apart last weekend. I wouldn’t count on Jones matching any of those performances. He should be treated as a low-upside, low-end QB2 this weekend.
QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 5: vs. NE): Mills ran into a buzzsaw in Buffalo last weekend, finishing with 4 interceptions and fewer than 100 yards against the Bills, and I’m not sure things get much easier for him this week. The Texans may get Danny Amendola back for this one, but he won’t provide enough of a boost against a New England defense that has allowed the 4th-fewest QB points per game. Tua Tagovailoa finished as the QB22 when he faced the Patriots in week 1. That’s the highest fantasy finish any QB has posted against them. I wouldn’t want to roll out Mills even as a desperation QB2 this week.
RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 5: @Car.): Gainwell has spent the first month of the season being a thorn in the side of fantasy managers who drafted Miles Sanders. He’s vulture 2 red zone touchdowns and handled the valuable receiving work in the hurry-up offense late in games. I still wouldn’t start him this week. Philly should hang around a little longer in this one (just a 3.5-point underdog on the road) and the Panthers have done a great job of limiting RB production in 3 of their 4 games. The Cowboys’ RBs did get to them last week, but they did so without a single reception. Carolina is allowing just 2 running back catches per game so far, and if Gainwell isn’t seeing any volume in the receiving game, he’s unlikely to provide you much value. You’ll wind up hoping he scores a touchdown against a defense that has given up just 1 rushing score to backs on the season. Only Zeke Elliott has scored 7+ fantasy points against this defense.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 5: @Hou.): Stevenson remained inactive in week 4 despite the season-ending injury to James White the prior week. The Patriots made do with Damien Harris, Brandon Bolden and JJ Taylor on Sunday night, but a fumble by Taylor may have opened the door for Stevenson to be active again this week. This is a week where there could be significant garbage time against the Texans, but in a best-case scenario that probably means just a handful of carries for Rhamondre. The Texans rank 2nd to last in run defense DVOA, so any opportunity to run against them could be useful, but I don’t see enough work for Stevenson in this one to get him into lineups anywhere.
RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 5: @LAC): Felton has played just 20 snaps over the last 3 weeks. He’s been targeted with a pass on a ridiculously high 35% of those snaps and has a highlight-reel touchdown to boot, but until that usage comes up there aren’t any formats where Felton can be trusted.
WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 5: vs. SF): In week 4, for the second straight week, Rondale was in a route on less than 40% of the team dropbacks, had a 10% target share or lower, and finished outside the top-60 fantasy WRs. There are going to be spike weeks where he posts strong games, but they’re going to be hard to predict. The 49ers have been banged up in the secondary but have held up alright. They rank 18th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 18th-most WR points per game. I don’t see this as a week to take a shot on Moore in season-long leagues, and in DFS I prefer similarly priced options like Jaylen Waddle or Elijah Moore over Rondale this week. If Chase Edmonds is out, Moore might get a little boost in usage, so keep an eye on that situation if you’re still considering using Moore.
WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 5: vs. Phi.): Marshall played his highest snap share of the season last Sunday, but it was also the first time all season that the Panthers were playing from behind, and he continues to see fewer snaps and routes run than Robby Anderson. I don’t expect the Panthers to fall significantly behind again this week, so I’d expect Marshall’s snap share to fall back closer to 60%, and his opponent in the slot, Avonte Maddox, has acquitted himself quite well this season in coverage. Maddox has allowed just a 75.2 passer rating on throws into his coverage and 4.8 yards per target. I’d keep Terrace sidelined again.
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 5: @Min.): St. Brown saw a spike in playing time and targets last week, finishing with a 6-70 line on 8 targets as the Lions tried to come from behind in Chicago. I wouldn’t bank on a repeat performance this week. Starting center Frank Ragnow has already been ruled out, and the Lions are also expecting to be without standout rookie Penei Sewell at tackle. Jared Goff will be under fire from a Viking defense that ranks 7th in the league in pressure rate. It’s going to be tough for the passing game to establish much of a rhythm, and I’d expect most of the receiving success to be had by the running backs and TJ Hockenson. I’d keep ARSB sidelined this week despite his strong performance against Chicago.
WR Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 5: vs. NO): Brown suffered a knee injury last week that has kept him out of practice through Wednesday. When he’s been active, he’s totaled just 47 scrimmage yards in 4 games. You can’t play him this week whether he suits up or not.
TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 5: vs. Den.): Freiermuth continues to play about half of the team’s offensive snaps, but his targets have been inconsistent week-to-week. In weeks where the Steelers have their full complement of weapons available, I wouldn’t count on more than a couple targets going the rookie’s way, and you’re basically crossing your fingers that he finds the end zone. Denver has allowed the 4th-fewest tight end points per game, and although they did let the one quality tight end they’ve faced post a solid week (5 receptions, 67 yards by Mark Andrews last week), Freiermuth isn’t in that ‘quality tight end’ category yet.
TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 5: vs. Phi.): Tremble looked to be in line for a spike in opportunities with Dan Arnold shipped off to Jacksonville, but he was on the field significantly less than Ian Thomas and was targeted just once. He isn’t roster-able outside of deeper dynasty leagues right now.
RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 5: vs. GB): Joe Mixon seems unlikely to suit up this week coming off an ankle injury suffered against the Jaguars. Keep an eye on the injury report here, but Mixon isn’t practicing as of Thursday. If Mixon sits, I’d expect Samaje Perine and Evans to split the backfield work, with Perine taking the early downs and Evans handling most of the passing down opportunities. Green Bay is a 3-point road favorite in this game, so the Bengals may be playing from behind. Green Bay is tied for the 11th-most RB receptions allowed per game, and they’re one of just 4 teams that have allowed multiple RB receiving TDs so far. Evans has sneaky upside in deep PPR leagues and limited slate DFS tournaments. He’s got a price tag of just $200 in DraftKings showdown tournaments.
RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 5: @LV): With the news that Bears’ running back David Montgomery will be sidelined for 4-5 weeks, Herbert becomes an interesting stash for deeper leagues. Damien Williams likely steps into the lead back role, but Williams also handled 14 touches in the first two weeks as the primary backup to Montgomery. A similar workload for Herbert seems likely. He isn’t much of a receiver out of the backfield, catching just 34 passes across 46 college games, so his work is likely going to come on the early downs. He’s a better pickup in non-PPR formats. I wouldn’t start him this week, but I’d monitor how much work he sees behind Williams.
WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 5: vs. Atl. (London)): Moore has been cleared to return to action after suffering a concussion in week 3, and he gets a tasty matchup in his return. The Falcons are allowing the 7th-most WR points per game, and rank 28th in pass defense DVOA on the season. The Jets move their outside WRs around enough that neither Moore nor Corey Davis will be matched up exclusively with Atlanta’s top corner AJ Terrell, and that gives both an opportunity to post a strong game. Moore is certainly a risky play as the number 2 option in an offense that can be tough to trust, but he should be a WR4 with strong upside in this plus matchup, and his price tag on DraftKings is below $4,000.
WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 5: vs. Ind.): I mentioned Bateman as a player you should be stashing last week, and that remains true this week. He didn’t manage to get activated for last Sunday’s contest, but he’s practicing this week and should have the green light for Monday Night Football. I wouldn’t rush to get him in lineups in season-long leagues. It may take a couple weeks for him to get acclimated to the NFL game, but he’s going to have a big role once he’s up to speed. He’ll likely have a very low price tag in showdown contests for MNF this week, and the Colts rank 26th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 12th-most WR points per game so far. He could be a fun roll of the dice in that format if you’re paying up for other players.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.