Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Hopefully you were luckier than I was last week and weren't saddled with both Peyton Manning and Demaryius Thomas's soul crushing fantasy let downs. Hopefully you survived another week. The rookies played a huge role last week, especially guys like Odell Beckham Jr. and Mike Evans. Martavis Bryant wasn't too shabby either, recording the longest play from scrimmage of the season. So which rookies are worth trusting with everything on the line again this week? Let's dive in and find out...
Rookies to Start:
RB Isaiah Crowell, CLE (Wk. 15: vs. Cin.): Crowell had a passable fantasy day in week 14, finding the end zone for the 8th time in his rookie campaign, but again he split the workload fairly evenly with Terrance West. There's some risk to starting Crowell as long as West is around, but he's still the better option of the duo, and the threat of Johnny Manziel running should open up all kinds of running lanes for the Crow. I'd feel comfortable firing him up as an RB2 against a Bengals' defense that allows the 4th most points to opposing RBs.
WR Odell Beckham Jr., NYG (Wk. 15: vs. Was.): This one isn't rocket science. He's got 90+ yards in 6 straight games and 3 TDs in his last 3 games. The Redskins' defense has been burned repeatedly this year, and Beckham will likely burn them multiple times this week. He's got WR1 upside.
WR Mike Evans, TB (Wk. 15: @Car.): Evans continued to show off his considerable talents in week 14, catching 2 TDs against the stingy Lions' secondary. Carolina's defense is not nearly as stingy, and Evans has 8 TDs over the last 6 games. I expect he finds the end zone again this week, and there is no reason he should be on your bench.
WR Kelvin Benjamin, CAR (Wk. 15: vs. TB): Although KB has been thoroughly inconsistent, he remains a solid WR2. There's a lot of boom or bust potential, but Benjamin scores touchdowns so often you'd have to have elite options to play instead in order to sit Kelvin this week. He burned Tampa for a 6-92-1 line the first time these teams faced off.
WR Martavis Bryant, PIT (Wk. 15: @Atl.): Bryant is a boom or bust play as usual, but the arrow is pointing way up this week. The Falcons just got shredded by the Packers' pass attack on Monday night, and they are one of the five worst defenses in the league against fantasy wideouts. Bryant only needs one big play to be worth a lineup spot, and there's a good chance he gets that this week.
WR Jordan Matthews, PHI (Wk. 15: vs. Dal.): Matthews didn't do much last week against the Seahawks, but that's because Mark Sanchez threw for less than 100 yards against an incredible defense. Things should be better this week. He caught 4 balls for 51 yards and a TD when the Eagles went to Dallas on Thanksgiving, and I wouldn't be surprised if he exceeds that stat line this week. The Dallas defense will look like a college team in comparison to the defense the Eagles just faced.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Johnny Manziel, CLE (WK. 15: @Cin.): Johnny Football has finally gotten the nod to start at QB for the Browns. The Manziel era has arrived! Should we be excited for his first start? The jury's still out on that. He will face a tough passing defense, but his running ability will give him the chance to put together an okay fantasy day. It's almost impossible to predict how Manziel is going to do, but if you feel like rolling the dice as a low end QB2, there's certainly upside.
RB Tre Mason, STL (Wk. 15 vs. Ari.): Mason runs into a brutal matchup with the Cardinals, at least on paper, but the Cards' D has softened against the run over the past 2 weeks. Jamaal Charles and washed up Steven Jackson both had strong days against them. Mason should be a strong bet for 60+ yards and should be on the RB2 radar.
RB Jeremy Hill, CIN (Wk. 15: vs. Cle.): This week is a must win game for the Bengals, and if they're smart, they'll force feed the ball to Hill. The Browns' biggest weakness is their run defense, and Joe Haden has consistently gotten the better of A.J. Green. Hill saw a near even split of the carries with Gio Bernard just a week after questioning OC Hue Jackson's play calling. He still averaged over 5 yards per carry on his touches while Bernard had just 17 yards on 6 carries. Hill is at least a reasonable flex-play, but if the Bengals run the ball as much as they should, Hill could end up a high end RB2.
RB Terrance West, CLE (Wk. 15: @Cin.): He doesn't have nearly the upside that Crowell does this week, but as long as West is seeing close to half the carries, he still has flex appeal. The threat of Manziel's running will open up lanes for West the same as it will for Crowell.
RB Andre Williams, NYG (Wk. 15: vs. Was.): Williams is coming off his best game as a pro, but that was against the awful Titans. The Redskins are awful as well, but they are stout against the run. If Jennings is expected to be out or extremely limited again, Williams will have some low-end flex appeal, but I wouldn't expect nearly the output he managed in week 14. I'd expect 60-70 yards and a TD to be his ceiling this week if he gets the start, but it's sounding like Jennings might be close to full strength for this one. Pay attention to the updates throughout the week.
WR Sammy Watkins, BUF (Wk. 15: vs. GB): Watkins finally got back on track last week, even if a lot of the damage came in garbage time as the Bills scrambled to make it close. The Bills' offense had little to no downfield passing game for the few weeks before the Broncos game, but they should again have ample garbage time against the Packers' juggernaut offense. Watkins has shown himself to be a risky play of late, but he has a ton of upside as a WR3 this week.
WR Jarvis Landry, MIA (Wk. 15: @NE): It's a tough matchup this week with the Pats' formidable corners, but he's had 5+ catches and 40+ yards in each of his past 6 games. I'd expect that to be the floor again this week, which makes him a high floor, low upside WR3 in PPR this week.
WR Donte Moncrief, IND (Wk. 15: vs. Hou.): Moncrief has a chance to blow up over the next few games. Reggie Wayne may have a torn tricep, and he might be shut down for the rest of the season before long. Moncrief is already ahead of Hakeem Nicks on the depth chart, playing 50 snaps to Nicks's 18. Even if Wayne plays this week, Moncrief has killer upside against the worst defense in the league against WRs. If Reggie sits, Donte has WR2 upside the rest of the way this season.
WR Marqise Lee, JAX (Wk. 15: @Bal.): Lee has settled in as a PPR WR3 in each of the past 2 weeks, and now gets to face a battered Ravens' secondary that has allowed 26.5 points per game to opposing WRs, tied with the Texans for most in the NFL. Lee should again be a solid WR3 option in PPR leagues, and should be in standard leagues with 12+ teams as well.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Teddy Bridgewater, MIN (Wk. 15: @Det.): Bridgewater has finally showed the ability to produce in plus matchups, putting up 2 TDs in 4 straight games and just eclipsed 300 yards passing against the Jets in week 14. Unfortunately for Teddy, he gets to face the Lions this week. The first time around, he threw for just 188 yards, no TDs and 3 picks, and that was at home. This one's in Detroit. I wouldn't expect a much improved performance.
QB Derek Carr, OAK (Wk. 15: @KC): Carr put up his second game of the season with 3+ TDs last week, and it was something no one saw coming. I don't expect a repeat this week. The Chiefs will be itching to get their hands on Carr in Arrowhead after what happened when the teams met in Oakland. Carr will struggle to get going in this one. There's no reason to trust Carr at Arrowhead.
RB Bishop Sankey, TEN (Wk. 15: vs. NYJ): To put it simply, you can do better. Sankey's role has actually been shrinking of late, and I don't expect the trend to reverse this week against the stout Jets' defense. Sankey hasn't made himself much of a part of the passing game, and he'd be hard pressed to approach 50 yards on the ground.
RB Alfred Blue, HOU (Wk. 15: @Ind.): Blue vultured a TD from Arian Foster last week, but there's no reason to get excited. He gained just 15 yards on 9 carries against a bad defense. At this point he's nothing more than a Foster handcuff.
RB Charles Sims, TB (Wk. 15: @Car.): There just aren't enough touches coming his way to trust him with your season on the line this week. He got a season-low 6 touches against the Lions, and I'm not sure he'll see much more than that this week. He's topped 50 yards just once, and there is no reason to expect that to change this week.
RB Jerick McKinnon, MIN (Wk. 15: @Det.): McKinnon hasn't played in a couple weeks, but I'd expect him to suit up this week [Editor's Note: McKinnon has since been placed on IR]. It doesn't mean there's a place for him in your lineup. The Lions are the 3rd best defense in the league at limiting RB fantasy production, and there's no reason to think McKinnon will suddenly go off in his return from injury. He still hasn't scored a TD all year.
RB Juwan Thompson, DEN (Wk. 15: @SD): Don't chase last week's stats with Thompson. Sure he had more rushing yards than C.J. Anderson, but he touched the ball just 5 times all game, and Anderson scored all 3 touchdowns. Expect Thompson's numbers to fall off a cliff this week.
RB Carlos Hyde, SF (Wk. 15: @Sea.): I was wrong when I thought Hyde would have a surprisingly good game when the 49ers hosted the Seahawks at Levis Stadium. I won't make the same mistake as the 49ers head to Seattle. The 'Hawks are a different animal at home, and have been dominant of late on the defensive side of the ball. I wouldn't risk playing Hyde in any format.
WR Davante Adams, GB (Wk. 15: @Buf.): Adams predictably came back to earth after a huge game in prime time against New England. As long as Jordy and Cobb are able to get open, Davante is left fighting for scraps. The Bills are a slight upgrade at corner from what Atlanta offered. but they aren't in the same league as the Pats. Expect another quiet day for Adams unless he finds paydirt.
WR John Brown, ARI (Wk. 15: @StL.): Brown was held catchless on 4 targets last week, and I'm not optimistic about his outlook this week either. He does his best work on the deep ball, but Stanton will need time to throw deep, and I doubt he gets it against the Rams' ferocious pass rush. St. Louis has the 7th most sacks in the NFL (35), and all but one of them have come since week 7. The odds of Brown getting loose for a deep one are really not good.
TEs Jace Amaro, NYJ (Wk.15: @Ten.), Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TB (Wk. 15: @Car.), and Eric Ebron, DET (Wk. 15: vs. Min.): Not one rookie TE is worth playing this week. Amaro still hasn't been cleared from his concussion and ASJ is uncertain with injury this week as well. I wouldn't have any faith that they'll even play, and even less that they produce if the do. Ebron, meanwhile, has been putting up between 20 and 30 scoreless yards each week. This week he faces off with the Vikings, who allow less than 5 TE fantasy points per week. There's no reason to expect a breakout.
Deep League Sleepers:
QB Blake Bortles, JAX (Wk. 15: @Bal.): Bortles has quietly cut down on his interceptions, throwing just 4 picks in his last 5 games after averaging 2 per game over the first 6 contests, and he's also continued to give his numbers a boost with his legs, averaging 28 yards per game on the ground. This week he gets a really brutal Ravens' secondary, and is a solid bet to throw multiple TDs for just the 3rd time all year. He's certainly risky, but if you're desperate this week for a QB2, you could certainly do worse.
RB Lorenzo Taliaferro, BAL (Wk. vs. Jax.): ZoBot finally got back into the mix in the Ravens' running game last week, and there's a decent chance they play from ahead in this one. It would have to be a really deep league to give Taliaferro a try this week, but there is upside for 50+ yards and a TD if things break right.
WR Allen Hurns, JAX (Wk. 14: @Bal.): Hurns makes it a trio of sleepers in the Jags-Ravens game. I mentioned that the Ravens' secondary is really bad, and Hurns has shown the ability to get deep for scores (at least in a couple games). There is a ton of risk in playing Hurns, but he's got great upside if you're really desperate. He could be a really fun option in daily leagues or if your out of the playoffs and your league still does a high score pool each week.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps secure you a spot in the championship. Be extra dilligent in staying on top of injury updates this week and double check the lineup before the games get started. As always, good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! A new season is almost upon us. You may have already drafted a fantasy team, but if you haven't, the rookies are always the hardest to predict. There's no track record to go off of, so it all becomes a guessing game based on role and perceived talent. With that in mind...I'm here to help. Each week throughout the season I'll breakdown which rookies you should start, which are borderline options, and which rookies you should sit. I'll also throw in a few deep league/cheap DFS sleepers each week as well. Since it's not quite week 1, today is about breaking down which rookies you want to own this season and why. I'll give you my quick top 10 redraft rookies, followed by a position-by-position preview. So, without further ado...
Top 10 Re-draft Rookies
1. WR Nelson Agholor, PHI: Melvin Gordon will lose touches to Danny Woodhead, Yeldon and Amari are on bad offenses. Nelson is ticketed for a big role in a high-volume attack. He's the safest rookie option.
2. RB TJ Yeldon, JAX: More on the reasoning later, but let's leave it at this - Yeldon should be a 3-down back while Gordon projects to be a 2-down back this year.
3. RB Melvin Gordon, SD: See above for reasoning
4. WR Amari Cooper, OAK: Clear-cut WR1 in an offense that will play from behind a bit.
5. RB Todd Gurley, STL: Would be number one on the list if we knew he would be ready to go at full strength week 1.
6. WR Devin Funchess, CAR: Injury to Kelvin Benjamin makes him the Panthers' WR1. His ceiling likely resembles what KB did last season.
7. RB Ameer Abdullah, DET: The longer it takes Joique to get onto the field, the larger the portion of his workload Abdullah will steal.
8. RB Tevin Coleman, ATL: Still unclear who will be the lead back in Atlanta, but Coleman was hand-picked by Kyle Shanahan in the draft. Expect a 50-50 split with Freeman at a minimum.
9. WR DeVante Parker, MIA: Parker's role is unclear with a crowded group of receivers, but the Dolphins' offense might break out in a big way, and Parker might be the most talented guy in the group. I wouldn't bet against him carving out a nice role this year.
10. WR Dorial Green-Beckham, TEN: Monster talent with a clear path the the #1 WR job in Tennessee's offense. It might not be a great offense, but if DGB's off-field troubles are behind him he could be a star soon.
Alright, there's the top 10, now onto the positional breakdowns...
QUARTERBACK:
Let's be honest, in re-draft there are only two QBs that are even worth considering. The rest of the crop may have some upside down the road...Sean Mannion is basically Mike Glennon part deux, Garrett Grayson could develop into a Joe Flacco-type at best (albeit with a weaker arm), Bryce Petty is the closest to a starting gig with only old man Fitz and inept Geno in front of him, but the rookie QB not in the top 2 with the most upside is Brett Hundley. He's just stuck behind Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay.
I know, I didn't rank any in the top 10 rookies, and there's a good reason for that. It isn't that I don't like the top 2, I just don't see either guy being more than a low-end QB2, which means you really aren't playing either guy unless you're in a 2 quarterback league or as a bye filler. While both are borderline top-20 options at QB this year (I have Jameis at 19 and Mariota at 22), I'd give the edge to Winston because of the TD potential he has with the red zone giants he has to throw to. Both guys have illicited positive reviews in camp, but I just expect the Bucs to have a better offense than the Titans. I think the TD count for Jameis will be enough to offset the damage Mariota does on the ground, and I'm more likely to take a shot on Winston than Mariota in a 2QB league.
In dynasty leagues, I really like both guys, but I still give the edge to Jameis. Again, it mostly boils down to weapons. Mike Evans and Austin Seferian-Jenkins give Winston two excellent targets who will be around a long time. Mariota gets Kendall Wright, who is a great possession WR, but the only physical freak target he has, Dorial Green-Beckham, is a huge question mark long-term due to off the field and maturity issues. Some would argue that Winston has some of those issues himself, and he probably does, but crab legs and public vulgarity and the sexual assault case are only part of the story with Winston. He's also a player who's been breaking down coverages since he was a kid watching NFL games on TV. Reading defenses and anticipating what they're doing is 2nd nature to Winston, and that is the single most important attribute to be a good NFL QB. While Mariota is a great leader with a high footbal IQ and electric running ability, I don't see that as enough to overcome his below-average situation and make him a better dynasty option than Jameis. The Titans have been one of the worst run franchises in the NFL.
RUNNING BACKS:
The rookie running back crop should have one clear-cut number 1 fantasy asset (and in dynasty leagues it does), and that guy is Todd Gurley. Unfortunately, due to a torn ACL last year at Georgia, his early season status is up in the air, opening the door for TJ Yeldon and Melvin Gordon to move ahead of him in re-draft formats. All three fall in the range from mid-RB2 to high RB3. There's still a very real chance that Gurley becomes a league-winner if he's back sooner than expected, but all signs point to him being eased back in to begin with. For me, Yeldon is #1 amongst the running backs in re-draft leagues. What separates him from Melvin Gordon is his 3-down role. Gordon is not good in the receiving game or in pass protection, two areas where Danny Woodhead excels, so he will likely lose touches in 3rd down situations while Yeldon will not. Yes, Gordon is in a better offense, but I still like Yeldon better. In dynasty leagues, I like Gurley at number one, but I still like Yeldon better than Gordon as I feel the Jaguars' offense will be ascending over the next couple seasons.
Beyond that trio, the next two rookie backs worth consideration in re-draft leagues are Ameer Abdullah and Tevin Coleman. For me, I much prefer Abdullah. His athleticism is off the charts, and the offensive coordinator in Detroit is the same guy who oversaw the Saints' offense that made dangerous multi-purpose weapons out of Reggie Bush and Darren Sproles. The Falcons' defense still isn't very good, so game flow might lead to less carries for Coleman. In dynasty leagues, if your league counts points for receptions, I'd even consider Abdullah ahead of Melvin Gordon despite Gordon's clear year one advantage.
As for the rest of th group, I would rank them in this order in re-draft: Matt Jones, David Cobb, Duke Johnson, David Johnson, and Jay Ajayi. Anyone who has watched the Redskins in the preseason has seen that they won't be very good. Alfred Morris gives them nothing in the passing game. Jones has been exceptional this preseason, and is likely to eventually replace Morris in the long-term. He'll have a nice role this year that should only increase going forward. Cobb is still looking at splitting work with Bishop Sankey in Tennessee, and while Sankey has looked improved thus far in the preseason, I still expect Cobb to be a factor. Duke and David Johnson both look tabbed for change-of-pace and some passing down work. I like Duke's situation better because his team looks more likely to play from behind. With Ajayi, although the Dolphins have refused to give Lamar Miller a full workload over the past couple years, Ajayi may have to work his way past Damien WIlliams to even get backup work.
Top dynasty RB options after the top 5 in order: Matt Jones, Duke Johnson, David Johnson, Josh Robinson, Zach Zenner
WIDE RECEIVERS:
While the dynasty rankings at WR are bit up in the air, the re-draft ranks have a very clear top two guys: Amari Cooper and Nelson Agholor, and I prefer Agholor. The Eagles' offense is a juggernaut, and Agholor is ticketed for the role vacated by Jeremy Maclin's departure. The Raiders, meanwhile, are still trying to fight their way back to respectability. Both guys are legitimate borderline 2/3 WRs for this year, but I just like Agholor better because of the situation. Cooper could catch 90 balls this year, but Agholor won't be far behind and has much better TD potential. In dynasty leagues, it's a coin flip for me. I'd still prefer Agholor, but I think Cooper is slightly more talented.
The 2nd tier of rookie WRs in re-draft leagues consists of Devin Funchess, DeVante Parker, Dorial Green-Beckham, and Breshad Perriman, and I would draft them in that order. Funchess should be a legitimate WR3 with the upside for more in Kelvin Benjamin's role. Parker could be a WR3 if he's able to get himself healthy and carve out a role. It might take a few weeks for him to start making an impact as he battles back from a foot injury however. Green-Beckham might have the highest ceiling of any receiver in this class, but he has several red flags that make him a long-term risk. There's a clear path to DGB earning a big role in the Titans' passing game, but it's far from a certainty. As a result, Green-Beckham is a WR4 for this season, although he's being typically drafted lower than that. Breshad Perriman is also a WR4 this year, but due to his injury issues this preseason, he's a boom or bust option for this year. If healthy, he should be the number 2 WR on the Ravens after Steve Smith.
As for the rest of the WR class, the only other guys I'd strongly think about rostering in re-draft leagues are Tyler Lockett in Seattle and Ty Montgomery in Green Bay. There isn't much on the Seattle depth chart to overcome, and Lockett has been fantastic this preseason. He's a good WR5/6 option in PPR leagues who could really surprise. Montgomery is worthy of WR 4/5 status just on the potential that he wins the WR3 job in an Aaron Rodgers offense. His dynasy outlook is hurt by the impending return of Jordy Nelson next season. Phillip Dorsett could make an impact in Indy, but he has to beat out Donte Moncrief for the third WR role to do so. Kevin White may miss the whole season in Chicago, and Devin Smith will open the season dinged up for the Jets. Neither is worth a draft pick in re-draft leagues. Jaelen Strong has a shot to earn a role with the Texans, but he's yet to make much of an impact in the preseason.
Top 12 Dynasty WRs in order: Nelson Agholor, Amari Cooper, Dorial Green-Beckham, DeVante Parker, Breshad Perriman, Kevin White, Devin Funchess, Tyler Lockett, Phillip Dorsett, Jaelen Strong,Ty Montgomery, Darren Waller
Other names to know: DeAndre Smelter, Chris Conley, Sammie Coates, Tre McBride, Kenny Bell
TIGHT ENDS:
The tight end position is typically useless in terms of rookie fantasy production, and this year looks to be about the same. The one rookie TE to be aware of is Maxx Williams in Baltimore. WIth Dennis Pitta still out and Owen Daniels gone to Denver, Williams will be expected to step in and play right away. I'd peg him as a low end TE2. I can't endorse banking on him to play a big role on your fantasy team. Outside of him, there isn't much. MyCole Pruitt might have a couple nice games in an H-Back role in Minnesota, but he isn't worth a draft pick, and Clive Walford could earn some meaningful playing time in Oakland, but that makes him maybe top-25 at the position.
Top 5 Dynasty TEs in order: Maxx Williams, MyCole Pruitt, Clive Walford, Tyler Kroft, Jesse James
That's it for the rookie preview. Hopefully it gives you a better grasp on who some of the guys are out there that you might not know much about if you don't watch much college football. Good luck with your fantasy drafts, and make sure to check back in each week for the Rookie Report to know what to do with your rookies on a weekly basis. And remember, have fun. Fantasy football is just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week one was full of surprises...the Bills topped the Colts, Peyton Manning's poor finish to 2014 seemed to carry over to 2015 despite the Broncos' win, and Dez Bryant suffered a broken foot. The surprises weren't limited to the veterans, however. Marcus Mariota and Ameer Abdullah both put up epic debuts, Jameis Winston had a premeire to forget, Nelson Agholor was almost invisible, and Rashad Greene was targeted a whopping 13 times. What does it mean for week 2? Let's take a look at what to expect...
Rookies to Start:
QB Marcus Mariota, TEN (Wk. 2: @Cle.): What a first impression, right? The former Duck was on fire in week 1, piling up 4 TD passes in his first pro game. The Titans were up so comfortably he threw just 4 passes the entire second half. That won't be the case every week. Most importantly, he was decisive with the ball, he didn't turn it over, and he was throwing downfield. He was fantastic in week one and he didn't even unleash his running ability. The Browns struggled mightily to slow down the Jets' offense, and I'd expect another decent outing out of Marcus. He should be a solid QB2 this week, and is worth consideration in deep 1 QB leagues. I am starting him in a 2QB league over Joe Flacco.'
RB Ameer Abdullah, DET (Wk. 2: @Min.): Ameer wasn't as impressive as Mariota, but he made a pretty big impact in his own right, piling up 94 total yards and an impressive 24-yard TD run on his first career carry, all while out-touching Joique Bell 11-8. It was a pretty harrowing week for Bell owners. If Abdullah keeps this up, his role should stay similar as the season rolls along. Bell will still get goal line work and a healthy share of the carries, but Abdullah is a great flex option in PPR leagues, and more of a borderline proposition in standard this week against the Vikings, who struggled mightily to contain the run game on Monday night. The short week won't help them get ready for Detroit.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Jameis Winston, TB (Wk. 2: @NO): I know, this sounds crazy after week 1, but this is just for 2QB leagues. If there is a defense that could give the Bucs a run for worst in the league, it resides in New Orleans. Jameis isn't as bad as he looked last week, and he'll undoubtedly be better if he has Mike Evans back on the field. I think 2 more TDs are very much in play this week, and the yardage number has a chance to go up as I expect the Saints offense to bounce back in a big way this week and keep Tampa throwing.
RB Tevin Coleman, ATL (Wk. 2: @NYG): Coleman was very involved in week one, toting the rock 20 times for 80 yards, but I think the Falcons will realize they need to get him involved in the passing game. He has big-time speed and operates well in space, and the Giants just gave up 12 catches and 131 receiving yards to the Cowboys' RBs last Sunday. Devonta Freeman will undoubtedly get a fair share of the passing down work, but if Coleman can steal a little bit of it, he could be a strong flex option against a sub-par defense. He's my favorite rookie RB this week not named Ameer Abdullah.
RB T.J. Yeldon, JAX (Wk. 2: vs. Mia.): I was very impressed by what Yeldon was able to do in the first half last week against the Panthers...I just wish he would have carried it over to the 2nd half. Despite adding Ndamukong Suh in the off-season, the Miami run D did not look impressive in week one, allowing 160 yards and a 4.7 ypc average to the Redskins' backs. Game flow may work against him, but I'd set the expectation at around 65-70 yards with the hope for a TD (less than 50/50 bet). That makes him more of a low-end flex option.
RB Duke Johnson, CLE (Wk. 2: vs. Ten.): Johnson got 7 carries a week ago shortly after being cleared from a concussion. While his 3.1 ypc weren't impressive, they were much better than the 1.7 average that Isaiah Crowell put up. I wouldn't expect Duke to overtake Crowell this week, but the Titans' D isn't nearly as imposing as the Jets', and I expect Johnson to be more involved in the passing game this week. He's an low-end PPR flex option, and I'd expect double-digit touches this week.
WR Amari Cooper, OAK (Wk. 2: vs. Bal.): The Ravens' corners are fantastic, and there's a chance that the Raiders don't have Derek Carr this week. Cooper was able to put up just a 5-47 line on 9 targets a week ago, and the Ravens have just as good a secondary as the Bengals. Amari will continue to be peppered with targets, so there is upside, but I wouldn't expect a lot more than he did last week.
WR Nelson Agholor, PHI (Wk. 2: vs. Dal.): Agholor was a big let down last week, with just 2 targets, resulting in one catch for 5 yards. The good news? He was on the field a ton, and ran the second-most routes on the team (42), behind only Jordan Matthews (47). Eventually the targets and stats will come. This week's game with the 'Boys could be a shootout, and a 5-60-1 type of line from Nelson wouldn't be crazy. I could see trying him as a flex in deeper leagues.
Rookies to Sit:
RB Melvin Gordon, SD (Wk. 2: @Cin.): The Bengals allowed a ridiculous 14 catches and 2 receiving scores to Oakland's RBs last week, and while Gordon had 3 catches in week one to Danny Woodhead's 4, the real issue for Gordon comes from last week's red zone usage. Danny Woodhead got all 8 of the Chargers' rush attempts inside the 20, cashing in 2 of them for TDs. I'd expect that to continue this week. It doesn't help that the Bengals are formidable up front against the run with th return of a healthy Geno Atkins. They allowed just 55 yards rushing on 15 carries to the Raiders' RBs on Sunday.
RB Todd Gurley, STL (Wk. 2: @Was.): I know it's exciting that Gurley may see the field week 2. He was a full participant at practice Tuesday and looks like he should be active Sunday, but pump the brakes a bit. Jeff Fisher did just hold out Brian Quick as a 'healthy scratch' as he rehabs from a shoulder injury, so they might hold off just a bit longer. If Gurley does play, he'll almost certainly be on some sort of pitch count and faces a better than you think 'Skins run defense. They were among the best in the league last year vs. the run and allowed just 53 RB rush yards to the Dolphins in week 1. The coming out party is coming, just not in week 2.
RB Karlos Williams, BUF (Wk. 2: vs. NE): The Pats looked vulnerable against the run in the opener against D'Angelo Williams, and Karlos looked great in his limited touches behind Shady McCoy in week 1, but I doubt he does as much damage this week. He was able to get some of his work with the Bills up comfortably on the Colts and able to pound the ball. I don't expect them to be up more than one score all game against New England, which should keep McCoy dominating touches. Williams would have to break another long TD run to be worth a play. He was out-touched in week 1 20-6 by Shady, and McCoy had 3 red zone carries to Williams's one.
RB Matt Jones, WAS (Wk. 2: vs. StL.): Alfred Morris, who many (myself included) were ready to write off as done in Washington, proved reports of his demise were greatly exaggerated. Jones did a decent job with the touches he did get, but Alf should be the clear number 1 until his performance slips. The Rams did do a nice job of limiting Marshawn Lynch last weekend as well.
WR DeVante Parker, MIA (Wk. 2: @Jax.): He was a non-factor in week one with Rishard Matthews starting and the passing game revolving around Jarvis Landry. I expect him to work his way in to the scheme eventually, but for now he's best left on the pine.
WR Rashad Greene, JAX (Wk. 2: vs. Mia.): Greene did see a ridiculous 13 targets in a surprisingly conservative Jags' passing attack in week 1, but he averaged just FOUR yards per catch on 7 grabs. I wouldn't expect that target volume to continue, but even if it does, that efficiency just isn't going to get it done. Greene was very productive at FSU over the past 2 years, so he could work his way into reasonable PPR value, but he's still 3rd in the pecking order after A-Rob and Hurns. Don't bet on a repeat this week.
WR Dorial Green-Beckham, TEN (Wk. 2: @Cle.): Pretty simple here, DGB was on the field for just 3 snaps in week one despite the team only carrying 4 WRs. You have to leave him benched for now until his playing time starts to increase. I would have no problem dropping him for now in shallower leagues. He will eventually find his way onto the field more, though, so monitor his playing time as the season progresses.
TE Maxx Williams, BAL (Wk. 2: @Oak.): The Ravens' pass attack looked to be desperately in need of more play-makers in week one with Torrey Smith gone and Breshad Perriman on the shelf, and Maxx Williams could eventually be that. I don't think it'll be this week. The Broncos' defense deserves much of the credit for shutting the Ravens down, and the Raiders won't be as stiff a test. Williams was targeted twice a week ago, and even if he doubles that this week he won't be worth a start. There are better options out there.
RB David Johnson, ARI (Wk. 2: @Chi.): Johnson got just one touch in week one, and it went for a 55-yard TD. Andre Ellington will be out a couple weeks, and although Bruce Arians called Chris Johnson their lead dog, I'd expect a decent chunk of work to go to David. 10+ touches are a real possibility, and he's already showed he's explosive and gets a poor Chicago defense this week.
WR Devin Funchess, CAR (Wk. 2: vs. Hou.): The Panthers' pass attack struggled mightily against the Jaguars a week ago, and Funchess could help that situation improve sooner rather than later. His role will increase dramatically soon. Part of his limited role week one could have had to do with his limited preseason reps due to injury. He's the type of playmaker the Panthers could have desperately used Sunday, and he should be the best bet for a Carolina WR to score a TD this week.
WR Tyler Lockett, SEA (Wk. 2: @GB): For leagues that count return yards, Lockett is a must own. He's one of the few return men who will also have a role in the offense. He should quickly ascend the pedestrian WR depth chart and become a weekly PPR WR3 option. For now he's still under the radar, but I'm not sure how long that will last. The Packers' defense was solid in coverage versus the Bears' banged up WR group, but with the focus likely on Marshawn Lynch and Jimmy Graham, Lockett will have a chance to make plays.
WR Phillip Dorsett, IND (Wk. 2: vs. NYJ): This projection only holds up if Hilton is out this week. Donte Moncrief would move into a starting spot opposite Andre Johnson (who underwhelmed in week one), and Dorsett would man the slot in 3-WR sets. The Jets' slot corner Buster Skrine might move outside if Antonio Cromartie is out, which could open up the middle of the field for Dorsett big time. Keep an eye on the Jets' cornerback plans for the week. Dorsett is the type of player who could break one for a TD at any time, and it would certainly help if he gets a burnable corner to face off with in the slot. He's likely not worth a start in most leagues, but he could be a sneaky DFS play.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps you a bit with your tough rookie lineup decisions this week. As always, good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Two weeks are in the books (and a Thursday night game), and week 2 was a quiet one for most rookies, but the trio of Matt Jones, Amari Cooper and David Johnson certainly made some noise with monster days. I was particularly impressed by Cooper. I'd like to give a quick shout out to the Reddit user who called me out for thinking Jimmy Smith could slow down the rookie. Cooper dusted him on a long TD early on. With week 2 in the past, let's move on to what to do with the rookies for week 3:
Rookies to Start:
RB TJ Yeldon, JAX (Wk. 3: @NE): Game script might not work in Yeldon's favor with the Pats a 2 TD favorite, but volume and the defensive matchup should be in his favor. With both Denard Robinson and Toby Gerhart dinged up, Yeldon should be on the field for a vast majority of the snaps, and New England has allowed a staggering 5.7 yards per carry this season and also 147 rush yards per game and 3 TDs in 2 weeks. I'm not saying Yeldon will break the century mark, but his volume will give him a high floor and make him a deent RB2 option. His upside may be limited by the game script as well.
WR Amari Cooper, OAK (Wk. 3: @Cle.): After last week, it's hard to doubt Cooper should pretty much be an every week start. Last week's stat line won't be the norm, but he should have a WR3 floor just about every week purely based on volume. Like Jimmy Smith last week, Joe Haden isn't a reason to be scared. The Browns play sides at CB rather than shadowing, and Oakland should move Cooper around so he doesn't only face Haden. Feel safe firing him up again.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Marcus Mariota, TEN (Wk. 3: vs. Ind.): Mariota still posted a decent stat line in a loss to the Browns last week, and this week gets a defense that may be missing all of its top 4 CBs. Mariota has already showed that he doesn't need to use his legs to put up fantasy points, and thus far the Colts have allowed a 104.2 QB rating to Tyrod Taylor and Ryan Fitzpatrick. They also don't generate a ton of pass rush, with just one sack so far on the season. Getting Delanie Walker back can only help Mariota, and he should be decent start in 2-QB leagues, and worth consideration in deeper 1-QB leagues.
RB Melvin Gordon, SD (Wk. 3: @Min.): The Vikings were gashed by Carlos Hyde in week 1, and then held Detroit to under 2.5 yards per carry in week 2. The reality likely falls somewhere in between. Gordon has been impressive in limited work so far, and should see similar volume this week. To really maximize his value, he'll have to find the end zone though. The Vikings are yet to allow a carry of 20+ yards on the year, and Gordon has zero red zone carries through 2 weeks. Gordon is more flex option than RB2 at this point.
RB David Johnson, ARI (Wk. 3: vs. SF): CJ?K is still the 'lead dog' according to head coach Bruce Arians, but David's done enough with the work he has gotten to warrant more of it coming his way. Arians has said as much, stating that David's role will increase as the season goes on. With Andre Ellington still out, Johnson is an upside Flex option this week, but he does have a low floor. He gets a boost in return yardage leagues.
RB Todd Gurley, STL (Wk. 3: vs. Pit.): For the most part, I'd avoid playing Gurley. There has been a lot of talk about him being on a 'pitch count' and will likely see just 10-12 touches assuming he plays. He is a top-shelf talent, however, and that means there is a chance he gets hot and sees some additional carries. With several guys in doubt this week (Ivory, Lacy, Marshawn), Gurley has more upside as a fill-in than most of the alternatives. I've got him ready to go in the league I own him if Ivory sits.
RB Duke Johnson, CLE (Wk. 3: vs. Oak.): The Raiders are among the worst in the league vs. RBs in terms of fantasy points allowed, and while Isaiah Crowell has been more effective than Johnson thus far, Johnson will continue to see a decent amount of touches as the number 2 back. At some point, I would think they will have to start using him in the passing game, which is a specialty of his, but he hasn't been targeted once so far. The upside is likely limited for Duke, but he could have a solid day if they finally start throwing it to him.
RB Matt Jones, WAS (Wk. 3: @NYG): I know, Jones has already played in week 3. I posted an update on Jones on twitter on Thursday afternoon (@shawn_foss). Here is what I posted: "You cant's chase last week's points vs. the Rams. Alfred Morris could see a bigger share of the work this week, especially on the short week. There is one caveat to this though: The Giants have allowed 20 RB fantasy points per game, 7th most in the NFL, and nearly half of them have come in the receiving game. Alfred Morris is essentially a zero in the pass attack, so there is definitely upside for a nice fantasy day from Jones." How did things turn out? Jones actually did continue to play ahead of Alfred Morris and saw 11 carries to Alf's 6. Unfortunately he did fumble going into the end zone, and Chris Thompson saw the receiving back work (8 rec, 57 yds, TD). There will be better weeks for Jones, and the fact that he got more early down work than Morris is a good sign.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Jameis Winston, TB (Wk. 3: @Hou.): Game script should keep Tampa from becoming too pass-happy in this one. It projects as a low-scoring affair, with two mediocre offenses, and Houston may be the best defense Winston has faced yet. They at least aren't as bad as their numbers vs. opposing QBs have been, and I think JJ Watt and company could make life miserable for Winston. I wouldn't be surprised if he has a hard time putting up much more than 10 fantasy points in standard leagues.
RB Ameer Abdullah, DET (Wk. 3: vs. Den.): Abdullah does his best work in space, and the Broncos don't allow much space, especially in the screen game. They have held opposing RBs to under 4 yards per catch (including 4 catches for 2 yards by Jamaal Charles), and it also doesn't help Ameer that Theo Riddick has had a bigger role than expected. I would be surprised if Abdullah finds his way to 50 yards in this one.
RB Karlos Williams, BUF (Wk. 3: @Mia.): At this point, Williams has a TD run in each game, but that won't be sustainable on the types of workloads he's seeing. For now, he's a handcuff for LeSean McCoy and a TD dart throw each week. He's not a stand-alone option this week.
WR Nelson Agholor, PHI (Wk. 3: @NYJ): Until his production starts to spike, it's hard to trust Agholor in fantasy. It doesn't help that he may draw Darrelle Revis for much of the game in this one. The Jets have been content to let Buster Skrine cover the slot, where Jordan Matthews does most of his work. The tough matchup and limited production thus far make Agholor a poor option this week.
WR Devin Funchess, CAR (Wk. 3: vs. NO): I have a hunch that Funchess has his best game as a pro and scores his first career TD, but through 2 games he has just 2 catches for 24 yards. I'd be crazy to tell you to start him. I'd have to see his role increase before he's a realistic option.
WR DeVante Parker, MIA (Wk. 3: vs. Buf.): Parker's snaps increased a little bit in week 2, but he put up just one catch for 3 yards. Rishard Matthews has unexpectedly emerged as the number 2 WR over Parker, Kenny Stills and Greg Jennings, and until Parker's role increases he has to remain on the bench.
WR Dorial Green-Beckham, TEN (Wk. 3: vs. Ind.): DGB did score his first career TD in week 2, showing that the Titans do recognize what a tough matchup he can be in the red zone, but his usage still isn't where it needs to be for him to be a startable option. A bigger role is coming eventually, especially with the inefficient play of Harry Douglas and Justin Hunter ahead of him. It's just a matter of when.
TE Maxx Williams, BAL (Wk. 3: vs. Cin.): Crockett Gillmore made a big week 2 impact, and despite the Ravens throwing a ton, Williams still strugged to carve out a role in the passing attack, catching just 1 of the 32 Flacco completions. He's best left on the wire outside of dynasty leagues.
Deep League Sleepers & Cheap DFS Options:
RB Thomas Rawls, SEA (Wk. 3: vs. Chi.): Lynch is a game-time decision, and in a deeper league it would make a lot of sense to scoop Rawls just in case. The Bears defense has been bad at all levels, and Fred Jackson is unlikely to be an every down option if Lynch does sit. Remember, the Seahawks liked Rawls enough to trade away Christine Michael, and Robert Turbin is out again this week. I like Rawls a lot when you factor in that the Seahawks are a 2 TD favorite. If they get ahead big, they're more likely to run Rawls than risk an F-Jax injury in garbage time. Jackson is the one who has a role when Lynch is healthy. I think a 75-yard day is very possible if Lynch is out.
WR Tyler Lockett, SEA (Wk. 3: vs. Chi.): I still think Lockett has a big game coming, and why not against the pathetic Bears' defense? Lockett had just 2 catches for 17 yards last week, but was on the field for 32 out of Seattle's 60 offensive snaps. As always, Lockett is worth more in leagues where return yardage matters, but I think he's got a sneaky amount of upside this week as a cheaper DFS option.
WR Ty Montgomery, GB (Wk. 3: vs. KC): Top CB Sean Smith is still out with suspension for the Chiefs, and Montgomery factored into the offense last week with 4 catches against the Seahawks on Sunday night. With Cobb lining up in the slot, there's a chance Montgomery gets to square off with Jamell Fleming on the outside, and Fleming has been burned regularly so far this season. It's sort of a shot in the dark play with Cobb, Adams and James Jones around, but he's already shown he can be a factor.
WR Devin Smith, NYJ (Wk. 3: vs. Phi.): Smith appears to be on track to play this week, and Eric Decker appears to be on track to not play. Coach Todd Bowles says it's not an injury issue at this point, it's just about getting Smith up to speed with his conditioning and the playbook. Smith's best skill is the deep ball, and Philly has allowed 7 completions of 20 or more yards and 2 of 40 or more in two weeks. Smith will likely be a boom-or-bust option this week if Decker sits. Another Jets rookie to keep an eye on though...
WR Quincy Enunwa, NYJ (Wk. 3: vs. Phi.): He's averaged 28 snaps per game in the first two and could also see an increased role if Decker sits. Enunwa would be safer and have a higher floor than Smith, but might not have the home run play upside. He's not a bad lottery ticket type of option in DFS.
That's it for this week. Hopefully it can help with some of your tougher lineup decisions or injury concerns. Feel free to hit me up on twitter with any rookie questions (handle listed above). As always, good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.